Two deals are, now that MGM is set at Sony, the primary focus of hummers in Hollywood… Pixar and Miramax. Both are, of course, Disney related. And both have been the subject of out and out public (as telling everyone your plans “privately” tends to be) rejection by Disney in the last two weeks.

The easy assumption is that both deals have gone south for Disney and that the studio is simply being direct and truthful.

And why exactly would you do that?

Every sane person I’ve spoken to pretty much agrees that a retooled/slimmed Miramax makes sense for Disney and Miramax and that no one can do for Pixar what Disney has done for Pixar, even if their deal is exactly the same as anywhere else and doesn’t involve any givebacks… but the givebacks are even more pie sweetening.

So why in a world of deals coming to the wire does Disney wave off both deals?

My guess is not that it is an end of the line, but a hardball comma in the sentence. Chris McGurk had MGM going to WB and was offering up the deal terms to friends and others for a week before Sony stormed back to the deal with a sweetened offer that finally pushed Time-Warner away from the table.

Read across the stories and between the lines of the last month of Disney news stories and you’ll hear, “We’re consolidating our movie brand and won’t be taking big budget risks on “adult” movies, we’ve got our network working again, what’s been messy at the parks is being cleaned up and we’re over the hump that started with 9/11.”

Miramax and Pixar are additions to the core business, they are not the core business. Whoever gets the Pixar deal is looking at $50 – $75 million in profit as a distributing entity every couple of years. And while there is no real upside, the good news is that there will be virtually no downside, as Pixar will self-finance. So the profit comes with no risk, other than the studio passing on a competitive opportunity during one of the two major animation release seasons every other year. Cynicism makes it easy to scoff and say that Disney is better off releasing fewer animated movies. But that worm can turn quicker than a desperate CG housewife. That said, it would be a win-win situation for both entities.

As for Miramax, some things have always been clear… there was never going to be a renewal at $700 million a year, Disney was never going to remove the restrictions on how much The Weinsteins could spend on any one movie without Disney approval and Disney was sure to try to make the Weinstein’s profit participation deal a little less sweet while the Weinsteins would ask for more.

But even if the annual budget for both Dimension and a severely scaled down, Revolution-style Miramax was, say $400 million or $450 million or $500 million… that is still a whole lot of somebody else’s money to play with.

It is a lovely notion that The Weinsteins can run out and get a billion dollar credit line just like that and I’m sure that someone would like to have a Scott Rudin/Joel Silver combination on their lot delivering product. But there is a reason why Rudin and Silver and Grazer and Bruckheimer and the other top producers of the day are not out there going it on their own. Spending someone else’s money is a much happier place to be.

The Weinsteins’ partner in Gangs of New York and now, The Aviator, IEG, has taken pre-sale traditions to a new level with solid business foundations and are now successful producers in the big budget game. But they are not making ten films a year and seeking to distribute another ten. They may expand to five or six or seven, but at some point, the degree of control starts to loosen and risks get greater and people lose and lose big. Is this how The Weinsteins want to spend their 60s?

Moreover, do they really want to operate without being able to use Disney as a fall guy? When you are paid the kind of money The Weinsteins have been paid as, essentially, employees, the idea of bolting for new horizons is a young person’s game… and a stupid one for most. The Weinsteins have always operated best under resistance. Where will that come from if they set up their own shop?

And how many tycoons as successful as The Weinsteins have been with Miramax have set up some other business and had anywhere near the same level of success? This town is littered with geniuses of the past. Even Barry Diller, the highest level player, has never been able to make the leap that he seems to have been seeking for so long since Fox. He has made a lot of money, but his glory days are seen, fairly or not, as historic.

The only problem with the apparent Disney strategy of turning their back on their relationships so as to spice them up is that at some point you pass the point of insult and the proud folks at both Pixar and Miramax could easily be pushed too far.

And remember this… as we ran through the summer, both Disney and The Weinsteins seemed intent on closing a deal, one way or another, before the start of the Miramax fiscal year that started 13 days ago. A key to any negotiation is controlling the clock. And it seems to me that both sides – Miramax with the New York story and now Disney with this Variety story – are trying to get a firm grip before pushing to the final tape.

The official notice of non-renewal? Meaningless. For one thing, the deal was never going to be renewed under the renewal terms that were set forth originally. Second, deal terms are deal terms and no move closes the door until another deal is done, either by The Weinsteins or by Disney, in finding new leadership for the Miramax division.

I guess, in the end, all I am saying is… don’t be distracted by flashy objects or clever news leaks.

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