The Oscar nominations ballots have just been sent out, and the Guilds have not announced their nominees, and yet I feel as if the Oscar race is over.

If my reading is correct, this year’s contest is going to be a most predictable one, like last year, which saw a clean sweep of The Lord of the Rings. Periodically, there seems to be an Oscar contest that’s easy to predict, such as 1997, the year of Titanic, or 1993, in which Schindler’s List grabbed most of the awards. But then you may recall the shocked reaction of Harrison Ford when he opened the envelope and announced the 1998 winner,Shakespeare in Love, which defied all polls predicting that Saving Private Ryan would win the top award.

This year’s race is all about Clint, but not entirely. There will be some spreading of the golden wealth, perhaps in the form of a split between Best Picture (Million Dollar Baby) and Best Director (Marty Scorsese for The Aviator). I am willing to bet my money thatMillion Dollar Baby WILL win Best Picture. This means that the only real suspense resides in the acting and writing categories.

As of today, the following films are sure-contenders for Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby, Aviator, Sideways, and Hotel Rwanda. The fifth slot will be filled by one of the following: Kinsey, Ray, Closer, or Finding Neverland. Phantom of the Opera seems to be out due to the mostly negative reviews the musical has received.

Here are the merits, pros and cons, of each picture, seen from the Academy’s perspective. Though you can’t generalize anymore about the typical Academy voters, as a group, they’re older and more conservative in their aesthetics and politics.

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Million Dollar Baby
(WarnerBros)

An extremely well-directed and well-acted film, in which the first reel is formulaic a la Rocky, the second reel a good boxing melodrama a la indie Girl Fight, and the third reel an intimate drama that matches in intensity and symbiotic relationships Ingmar Bergman’s best work. There is much to praise about this film that truly upset this year’s race simply by changing its release date.

Pro

Sentimental tale that combines elements of Rocky with the exploration of a serious and timely social problem.
Deft blend of a routine boxing drama with a great familial love story, set against the down-and-dirty world of a physically and psychologically demanding sport.
Eastwood, one of the most respected vet directors in America, is a multiple Oscar winner and Academy favorite.
Strong comeback performance from Hilary Swank, who has mostly made bad pictures since her Oscar for Boys Don’t Cry.
Two-generational plot that should appeal to the Academy’s older and younger voters.
Positive portrait of that perennial theme, male camaraderie, in the form of interracial friendship between Eastwood and Morgan Freeman.
Great performance by the reliable pro Morgan Freeman who has been nominated three times but never won an Oscar before.
Critical cachet – Eastwood has won Best Director from the N.Y. Film Critics Circle, and the film tops the Ten Best Lists of the N.Y. Times’ chief critics.
Film gets better, deeper, and more resonant as it goes along.
A light feminist streak runs through the film, mixing conventions of the boxing genre with a femme-driven story about a poor girl who finds in fighting purpose, pride, and the very reason to exist.
Love story of a father/daughter, sharing a common spirit that transcends pain and loss and find in each other a sense of family lost long ago.
Though Million Dollar Baby is set at present, the film is timeless.
Spiritual, even religious movie about the search for redemption of an old Irish Catholic, who’s become disillusioned with the church and lack of significant personal relationships in his life.
The open-ended, ambiguous denouement is though provoking.
Eastwood’s no-nonsense directing style and keen understanding of acting contributes to a film enriched by the multi-layered performances.

Con

Old-fashioned saga, basically a 1970s film applies to a social issue seldom seen on the American screen.
Drawback to Eastwood’s minimalist-classicist style is a trace of dullness and predictability; expectations in the first two reels are neatly fulfilled.
Clint has won Oscars before, as director and producer for Unforgiven, and he’s also a recipient of the Irving Thalberg Memorial Award
Too soon to reward a director whose previous movie, Mystic River, was nominated last year for Best Picture and won the male acting awards.
Weak fighting sequences, particularly by standards of Scorsese’s masterpiece, Raging Bull..

(For a detailed review of Million Dollar Baby, click here.)

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The Aviator
(Miramax)

This extremely entertaining biopicture about the youngHoward Hughes is Scorsese’s response to critics that he’s not a storyteller and cannot make an accessible film. Scorsese has chosen one of twentieth century’s most compelling figures, an influential innovator, savvy industrialist, glamorous film producer quintessentially American risk-taker, womanizer, who ended up living a paranoid reclusive life.

Pro

A sprawling, uniquely American saga, with scope rather than depth, covering two crucial decades in American history.
Signals something new in Scorsese’s career: His ability to make a commercial movie that plays.
New beginning for Scorsese, who might have exhausted the thematic, stylistic, and lyrical possibilities of gangster life in a dozen films.
Scorsese’s first Hollywood-set story, with Scorsese the showman making a movie about Hughes the showman.
Perennial nominee Scorsese has never won an Oscar.
Easy movie to watch; audiences don’t have to work hard.
Warmer and less detached than most of Scorsese’s work.
Displays the juicy trashiness of rich biographical material.
Brighter, more optimistic tone than the usual Scorsese; even when Hughes descends into madness, he remains accessible and likable.
Technically, film displays bravura filmmaking: Honoring Scorsese is rewarding his vet collaborators, responsible for the pyrotechnics: editorThelma Schoonmaker, costume designer Sandy Powell, production designer Dante Ferretti, and cinematographer Robert Richardson.
Leonardo Di Caprio in a performance signaling impressive transition from boyishness to manhood.

Con

Does not represent Scorsese’s best filmmaking, an honor still occupied by his trilogy: Mean Streets, Taxi Driver, and especially Raging Bull.
Too plot-driven and not enough character-oriented.
In its weak sequences–Hughes’ phobias and hysterical descent into madness–Aviator approximates TV Movie of the Week.
Despite elements of alienation, paranoia and madness, there’s nothing controversial about the film, unlike Million Dollar Baby.
Portraying the larger-than-life Hughes in a larger-than-life manner, Scorsese mythologizes rather than illuminates Hughes.

(For a detailed review of The Aviator, click here.)

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Sideways
(Fox Searchlight)

The year’s best-reviewed film, sweeping major critics groups as Best Picture, including L.A and N.Y. critics who seldom agree.

Pro

Payne is a critic’s darling, after About Schmidt.
Sophisticated banter and even better wine.
Good ensemble acting by quartet of talented and underused indie actors.
There’s always one spot for a quirky offbeat small movie.

Con

Too small and intimate in scope.
Lack of recognizable movis stars
No indie movie of that size has ever won Best Picture, though some, such as The Full Monty (also about a male group) and In the Bedroom(another modest indie) have been nominated.

(For a detailed review of Sideways, click here.)

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Hotel Rwanda
(MGM)

There’s always room for a social-outrage film, this one about the mass genocide in Rwanda, told from the point-of-view of real-life Paul Rusesabagina, a hotel manager who secretly used his position to shelter 1208 refugees during the 1994 tragedy.

Pro

Always nice to honor a newcomer, Terry George.
Voting for Hotel Rwanda is good politics in the way that voting forGandhi was.
Don Cheadle, one of the most respected and busiest actors, usually seen in indie and in character parts, plays a lead.
With two black actors nominated for a lead, this year may be a repeat of 2001, in which Denzel Washington and Will Smith were both nominated.
Cheering for an African hero who risked his life to save others is a good cause, particularly when survivor Rusesabagina is campaigning for the picture
Good screen story that combines a riveting political thriller with a moving portrait of one man’s marriage and family
Universal story of triumph over evil, that celebrates an ordinary man who becomes extraordinary through courage, compassion, and commitment to.

Con

Not as good in execution as Schindler’s List or Killing Fields, to which it will be compared.
Suffers from the conventions of mainstream Hollywood movies, in which political issues are translated and reduced to the individual level
Story centers on one building (the hotel) and the people within it, but when the film ventures outside, its surreal imagery is less convincing.
Focus on one man trivializes the horror of the genocide at large.
George humanizes the conflict, reducing it to a familiar psychological level, easily digestible by viewers.
Too concerned with telling a messy story in a cohesive and inspirational way.
Uplifting message may be too simplistic for this kind of tragedy.

(For a detailed review of Hotel Rwanda, click here.)

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Kinsey
(Fox Searchlight)

Bill Condon’s biopicture about the controversial sex researcher, Alfred Kinsey, is comprehensive and impressive.

Pro

Directed by Bill Condon, previous Oscar winner for script of Gods and Monsters.
Lead actor Liam Neeson is better than he was in Schindler’s List, for which he was Oscar-nominated
Laura Linney, as Kinsey’s wife, is terrific, again showing versatility and range.
Touches a nerve in puritanical an conservative American mores

Con

The film is faltering at the box-office.
Distributed by Fox Searchlight, which also has frontrunner Sideways.

(For a detailed review of Kinsey, click here.)

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Closer
(Columbia)

Pro

Well-acted intimate drama.
Mike Nichols always a front-runner.
Cache of literary source: Peter Marber’s well-received play has played London and Broadway and translated into 32 languages.
Topical issue of battle of the sexes and harsh critique of the male ego

Con

Divisive critical response, which at first elevated the film’s visibility and made it a controversial item, has subsided and the film is quickly becoming a non-event.
One quartet of the team, Julia Roberts, is rather weak, and Jude Law,the film’s nominal hero, not particularly strong either.
The two performers, who were undeservedly placed in the supporting category, carry the film: Clive Owen and Natalie Portman.

(For a detailed review of Closer, click here.)

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Finding Neverland
(Miramax)

Pro

Everybody loves Peter Pan
Johnny Depp gives another astonishing performance, this time subtler than his hammy turn in Pirates of the Carribean.
Fable for all members of the family
Schmaltzy ending can only help.

Con

Too small in scope and ambition.
A fairy-tale that doesn’t pretend to be full-length bio of J. M. Barrie, but may suffer if labeled as such.
No children’s picture has won Best Picture, though some, such as E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, have been nominated

(For a detailed review of Finding Neverland, click here.)

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Ray
(Universal)

Juicy celebration of legendary musician Ray Charles, loved by all Americans, whose music has transcended boundaries of age, race, and politics.

Pro

It may help that Ray Charles died in June.
Incandescent performance by Jamie Foxx,this year’s hottest actor (also in Collateral) that goes way beyond impersonation
Biopicture that appeals to everyone.
All that great music.
Vet Taylor Hackford’s best picture to date.
Nice box-office grosses that will improve after nominations.

Con

Too conventional, with its character’s arcs and story’s progression.

(For a detailed review of Ray, click here.)

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Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
(Focus)

Pro

An offbeat quirky romance.
One of few original comedies this year.
Great Kate Winslet in a difficult role, and not a bad Jim Carrey either.
Prestige of Focus Features, which unexpectedly grabbed major Oscars in 2002 forThe Pianist.

Con

The Academy’s notorious bias against comedy and comedy performers.
Adaptation and Being John Malokvich were nominated for writing and acting awards but not for Best Picture

January 4, 2005
E-mail Emanuel Levy

Oscar 2004

12/28- Clint As Actor
12/21- 2004 Recap
12/14 – Hilary v. Annette: Round 2
12/07 – Scorsese’s Year?
11/23 – Women As Second Bananas
11/30 – Supporting Actress — Anything Goes

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Visit www.EmanuelLevy.com
Updated twice weekly, the site features five regular columns: Current Reviews, Oscar Alert (of films and performances), Film Commentary (on timely and relevant issues), DVD of the Week (both classic and new), and Festivals/Events (such as essays on Brando’s career and this year’s centennial celebration of George Stevens and Cary Grant).

Samuel Butler once observed that, “Every man’s work, whether it be literature or music or pictures or architecture or anything else, is always a portrait of himself.” About Emanuel Levy

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