Weekend Warning
I’ve been expecting a lot from this weekend based on what seems like some sure bets coming into the multiplexes combined with Star Wars: Weekend Two – Return Of The Cash.
But word on the street is not only that the tracking is soft (by blockbuster standards) on both The Longest Yard and Madagascar… it is weak.
How weak? Well, even giving the animated film the benefit of the limits of tracking on kids, neither film is expected to crack $40 million in 4 days.
That would be the worst showing since the last Star Wars, in combination with Spider-Man, kept all but Insomnia, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, and Enough out of the marketplace. Both Bruce Almighty and The Day After Tomorrow did more than $80 million on their own opening on Memorial Day.
$43 million would be Adam Sandler’s best opening ever… but still, this is his first time in a May film, much less in the Memorial Day Weekend slot.
Anything under $42 million would be DreamWorks’ worst CG animated opening since their very first film, 1998’s Antz. Scary punchline? If this film doesn’t do at least Shark Tale business, it could mean that someone from outside the company has to come in and buy out Paul Allen.
If both of these films are at around $40 million and Star Wars is around $75 million, we’re looking at a likely under-$200 million 4-day weekend. That would make it the weakest Memorial Day since 2001, the year of Pearl Harbor.
I think Madagascar will do better than $40mil. Kicking & Screaming didn’t really catch on so this will be the kids pic they see.
I’m sure it’ll do at least $50mil.
Specially if Shark Tale can do $47mil!
I honestly don’t care whether The Longest Yard succeeds for fails. I’ve hated Sandler’s last few like 50 First Dates (second worst movie of 2004) and Anger Management.
What was your worst movie of 2004?
For me it was The Perfect Score, but nobody saw that. So next, Sky Captain.
I agree that Madagascar will probably do just fine this weekend.
I sort of liked The Perfect Score. It was a perfectly mediocre teen movie with a scorching Scarlett Johansson and an appropriately scorching, er, whats-his-name. Chris Evans? It was fun, but I can see how others could hate it. Same for Sky Captain which I found was an enjoyable retro kitsch fest.
My Top 10 Worst of 2004 were
1. A Cinderella Story (one of THE most offensively dumb movies ever made)
2. 50 First Dates
3. White Chicks
4. Van Helsing
5. The Passion of the Christ (aka everyoneevil!!!blood!!satan!!!!)
6. Shrek 2
7. Troy
8. Exorcist: The Beginning
9. Prozac Nation (aka Scream Fest ’04!!!)
10. Tom White (aka Why Aren’t More Australians of Depression Medication? Part XIII)
do they really expect a prison football movie to rack up 200$ mill?
Camel, I have to question your tastes if you are actually seeing all those movies.
Terence, give it a rest man. Find a new hobby. Are you that miserable? You’re only happy if you’re bashing someone else’s taste, or the movies that they have seen?
Maybe Stella needs a new hobby after spending his free time at Michael Bay movies. Call me crazy.
Blue: OK, you’re crazy. That’ll be $25, please.
stella was in the video store for two hours last night deciding between the rock and bad boys.
Well, when I have a guy telling us that he saw in the past twelve months, White Chicks, Exorcist, Prozac Nation, and Cinderella Story. So, yes I do have to question their tastes and what they’re seeing. I think you’re miserable and depressed if you’re seeing movies like those. Now don’t tell us you’re a Wayans guy now too. I can’t wait for your defense of how White Chicks is an entertaining and intelligent and funny movie. And much better than any Star Wars film. Which you haven’t seen yet right?
You forgot the fact that he likes The Perfect Score and Sky Captain. Which makes me scratch my head just typing it.
I think Madagascar will do much better than what you predict. The kids are chomping to see the first animated movie of the summer…and I bet Dreamworks has been hawking it as “from the studio that brought you Shrek”!
Even if it does make some money this weekend, I don’t see it having the traction to stay there.
Madagascar looks terrible, but I just saw Charlie and the chocolate… new trailer and I am sure it will be the best movie of the summer.
I love Burton!
Sith will rule the weekend. I have no doubt. And as much as this pains me to write, Adam Sandler has remarkable luck with getting audiences to see him. I think all of his films are garbage, but people my age love him to death. Why? not a clue. So i think it’ll be stacked like this:
Sith
Yard
Madagascar
Monster-in-Law (the big sleeper hit of the Summer)
What’s interesting is that for all of Dave’s bashing of “Madagascar,” it’s 56% fresh at RT, and even the negative reviews I’ve read are nothing but optimistic about the commercial potential of the film.
Rotten anyway!!
If I make it to the theater this weekend I will probably see Madagascar, I was interested in the Longest Yard but the more I hear about it the the more it seems it’s nearly a shot for shot remake of the original so what’s the point. Do they even change what happens to the Caretaker character?
Sandler doesn’t have luck. He’s genuinely funny.
Sandler is funny. His movies are not.
Bill Murray is funny. Steve Martin is funny.
that doesn’t mean I was in a rush to see “The Man who Knew too Little” and “Cheaper by the Dozen”.
thats where ur wrong. billy madison and happy gilmore are classics. steve martin hasn’t been funny since 1978
Critics no longer have the stomach for attacking what they don’t get… they will not bash the children’s movie from DreamWorks… they will rationalize it.
My favorite item of the summer was Rotten Tomatoes’ look at the reviews of the first Star Wars, now and then. When re-released, it rated in the 90s. When first released, the critics who were working in both periods rated it in the 40s.
There is nothing wrong with evolving, but with due respect, this profession is as vulnerable to trend as any civilian perspective, if not more.
Critics rarely have backbone. They go on the whims of the public. it is why so many of them are not respected.
“madison” and “gilmore” are only funny to people who were between ages 13 to 18 when they came out (which I was at the time). To everyone else, those movies blow.
I think that rule of thumb applies to girls more than guys. Any movie a girl enjoyed between the ages of 12 and 15 HAS to be one of the greatest movies ever. My girlfriend has great movie taste, but her all time favorite movie is “Some Kind of Wonderful” and she watches it probably once a month. it’s crazy.
I’m in my forties and I like those Adam Sandler movies. Especially Happy Gilmore. I even like Big Daddy and The Wedding Singer. Anyone who doesn’t like them tries to be elitist and bash Sandlers comedy. Theres a reason he makes 20$ million a film.
I get the feeling Smitty has really never seen Billy or Happy and is basing his comment on the fact that his girlfriend dragged him to 50 First Date.
For me, Sandler is hit and miss. So don’t start calling me elitist please. I love how everyone who dislikes anything that is extremely popular is automatically an elitist. Sort of short-sighted. Anyway, I still laugh at Billy Madison, Happy Gilmore, The Waterboy and The Wedding Singer when I see them. But I hated Mr. Deeds, Anger Management and 50 First Dates with a passion. Big Daddy is somewhere in between (the courtroom conclusion is painful). The Longest Yard just doesn’t look all that funny to me.
I think Longest Yard will tank. Enough of these unnecessary remakes!
>>Critics rarely have backbone. They go on the whims of the public. it is why so many of them are not respected.< Gee, I thought we weren't respected because we went AGAINST the whims of the public. Which is it?
Yeah I thought critics were considered “out of touch” with regular folks, just like certain politicians.
For the record, I love Tommy Boy. This is not an elitist thing. this is, “I just don’t like those specific movies” things.
But i notice in “Madison” and “Gilmore”, Sandler is just playing a goof-off. which is fine.
But in “Mr. Deeds” he plays a rich guy who in one scene saves a woman from a fire and all of her cats. In “50 First Dates”, the opening sequence establishes him as the ultimate Ladies Man who gets around. Now in “Yard” he plays a bad ass former quarterback… I get the feeling he’s becoming more famous rich guy movie star than funny goof-off.
oh yeah, I walked out of “8 Crazy Nights”, that might be just the worst animated movie in decades.
Adam Sandler is a very safe choice for a comedy movie. Everyone in the audience knows exactly what they’re going to get and that’s why his movies always make money, except for his dramas, and Little Nicky, which was way too goofy for people to follow.
Even though that’s exactly why I like it. (commence slagging of Little Nicky).
I thought “The Waterboy” and “Big Daddy” were VERY funny. Does this mean I kicked out of The Elitist Federation?
OK, here’s my provocation of the week: If “The Longest Yard” makes less this weekend than “Monster-in-Law” did when it opened two weeks ago, will Dave post a thread asserting that Jennifer Lopez is now a bigger draw in the U.S. than Adam Sandler?
We’ll never know because it won’t happen. Monster made 23 that weekend, Longest Yard will probably do twice that, regardless of tracking.
Whoa, is Son of Smith bashing “Some Kind of Wonderful”???? That’s not on.
Okay, here we go!!!
1. White Chicks was free!
2. A Cinderella Story was on VCD
3. I believe Prozac Nation hasn’t even been RELEASED in America yet and when I saw it I had no idea of the bad press it had gotten
4. I thought I’d give Exorcist a try
5. I saw 50 First Dates and Troy with a group of friends
6. Van Helsing was a DVD rental that turned out to be shit, what can I say, I like Hugh Jackman?
“I think you’re miserable and depressed if you’re seeing movies like those. Now don’t tell us you’re a Wayans guy now too. I can’t wait for your defense of how White Chicks is an entertaining and intelligent and funny movie.”
er, i DIDN’T like White Chicks? Who said it was entertaining and funny?
I love that I’m getting bashed for the bad movies I’ve seen when people here are REPEATEDLY going to movies they think look bad.
Or, ya know, they constantly talk like they have seen these horrible horrible movies so I just assume.
Lastly, I’m not miserable and depressed because today I saw two brilliant films. “Birth” (it just opened in Australia a few weeks ago)” and Wong Kar-Wai’s “2046”. I’m in bliss.
Terence really does let the DAD in him go crazy on
this blog. Thus, making Terence DAD of the board
I guess. So, Terence is the DAD, Jeff is the
ENGLISH TEACHER, and now Im dancing crazy.
I actually enjoyed Prozac Nation. Sure it could
have been told better, but the director just got
hung up on visuals. A more straight foreward
approach would have easily helped this film.
Sandler, has had a big bomb coming for a while. Ever
since the Wedding Singer he has become MR. Diminishing
Returns. Punchdrunk Love, being the only film in
all of that time worth a damn. Leaving us with his
whack idea to remake a movie, PLAYED ALMOST ONCE A
WEEK ON AMC, into a weak PG-13 prison movie. Absolutely
the dumbest move by a big star in years. Plus selling
Nelly as a STAR in the film just screams despiration.
Let it bomb. Let it bomb real good.
Terence keeps pointing out that he’s a dad like that gives him any cred. As if inseminating a woman is a real intellectual distinction. His kids are probably covered with tats and collect Nazi paraphernalia. Meanwhile he has nothing of interest to say about movies, just part of a hate group that comes on every page to get out their aggression and belittle the people who make an effort here. Nothing but a mean spirited motherfucker. Literally.
I think it might be a good idea if, as a matter of simple courtesy on this blog, we stick to insulting each other, and not resort to demeaning comments about anyone’s children, mother, father, wife, girlfriend, boyfriend, mutant fowl offspring, etc.
Sandler had his huge bomb and it was Little Nicky. I know that the box-office numbers are already out but come on, it was obvious that Longest Yard would make money.
I don’t want to be the English teacher, I just want to have some damn idea what people are talking about here sometimes when. they start write like they stroking. then i will give them dap
Mr. Leydon: I’d agree but these asswipes never show any restraint themselves. For more than a month I’ve been looking for interesting insights on the Hot Blog but every page ends up overflowing with their sickness. Just a dose of their own medicine (the nuclear option) if you ask me. To achieve balance, sometimes you have to first tip the scales.
Mr. Leydon? Oh, geez, I knew it: My students have started reading this blog. OK, guys, do me a favor: As long as this newbie is around, please don’t bring up those stories about me and that bosomy co-ed, OK? I mean, hell, she LOOKED 18…
Blau, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments and goals, but I can’t say I’m comfortable with your tactics. The threat of a nuclear strike is one thing. But the employment of nuclear devices is quite another. I just hope you’re ready for the fallout.
So Terence comes across as an evil Fred McMurray.
Still does not mean he does not come across like
a dad, and not like I typed that as a bad thing.
If anything it explains his motives and tone.
And Jeff, that last sentence of your post, since
you did not note it as being an example, excludes
you from any further slagging of anyone else’s
typing. I mean, I extrapolated the point out of
it. How about you try doing that in the future.
When you feel so baffled.
Yeah, insult me all you want. But when you insult
my mom. You are not asking for a nuclear option
from me. You are asking for the SALT THE EARTH
option.
I’m sorry, I’ll footnote myself from now on.
How ’bout simultaneous translation?
Jeff, and I would like you to note at least two
sources. It would be greatly appreciated.
Blau, you can insult me all you want. Trust me, nothing you can say will ever creep into my feelings. Especially since your first post ever tries to bash my family. Real astute.
Blaus just really ticked off she can’t get a fella. Don’t be sad, Blau. You don’t have to attack Terrence’s family because you have issues.
Point of note: The Longest Yard’s three-day weekend because Sandler’s best opening of all time.
…get ready for even more.
i think it may be time for the sandler bashing to end. from critics and the like. its obvious he doesn’t give a flip and makes movies he considers funny and apparently a lot of others do too
Just because his movies are popular doesn’t mean that Critics don’t have a right to not like them. Like, just because Shrek 2 grossed $400mil or whatever doesn’t mean my utter hate of it is magically going to disappear.
I wouldn’t call it “bashing” either, it’s just that he doesn’t make good movies.
I find that very few people even listen to critics anymore. They’re prententious and wouldn’t know a good film if it smacked them in the face. Especially a comedy.
While The Longest Yard was midly entertaining, it certainly doesn’t compare to the Burt Reynolds classic. Which is the best football movie ever made.
Hey, don’t look at me. I gave the new “Longest Yard” a favorable review. I also liked “Big Daddy” and “The Waterboy.” But “Deeds” sucked big time, sorry.
Remaking the Longest Yard is like remaking The Godfather. It should never be done. Some films should not be tinkered with. There should be a list.
don’t give these studios any ideas. next thing we know we’ll be seeing sandler as michael, rob schneider as fredo, spade as sonny and chris rock as tom hagen
The way Sandler keeps mining classic films to remake we may just get stuck with that. Can’t he remake average films?
Bob: And as the Don himself? Jim Carrey?
It would be like casting Pacino in the Brando role. With what Reynolds did in Longest Yard. Whoring for dough.
Pacino and DeNiro take any paycheck that comes their way now. They’ll sing up for Sandlers Godfather trilogy in a second.
You know, seriously: Should we even be joking about this? I mean, might we give some people ideas? I rememebr years ago when I reviewed “Dragnet” with Dan Aykroyd and Tom Hanks, and I made a passing remark along the lines of, “Gee, what’s next? ‘Highway Patrol: The Motion Picture’?” Well, I’ll be damned if, within a month,somebody didn’t announce plans for a “Highway Patrol” movie with JOHN CANDY in the Broderick Crawford role. I don’t know what ever happened to that project — maybe cooler heads prevailed, or it was still in development at the time Candy died. But ever since then, I’ve always been careful about joking too much about worst-case scenarios.
RIP…John Candy. You are missed.
its just a matter of time before they start remaking all the classics. citizen kane, gone with the wind, godfathers. we’re in trouble
Rob Schneider as Charles Foster Kane?
Don’t even mention that. His agents are probably scrambling for the rights as we speak.
u can do it, mr kane
Bob: THAT is funny.
Those guys are having a reading right now doing it. It’ll make triple what the original Kane made. How sad is that?
Almost as sad as today’s news about yet ANOTHER remake: “The Heartbreak Kid.” And THAT comes right on the heels of an announcement for a new “Adventures in Babysitting.” When will it all end?
Nothing worse than making them “black”. The Honeymooners, Back to School, Can’t Buy Me Love. It never ends. Cedric the Unentertainer is killing the classics.
ADVENTURES IN BABYSITTING?
Why never…
I love reading Americans be so passionate about the original Longest Yard because most Australian’s haven’t even heard of in. In fact one of my friends thought it was a remake of “Mean Machine” with Vinnie Jones from a few ago, but I corrected him “which was a remake of the original Longest Yard” and then his response: “Oh. That’s fuckin retarded.”
exactly.
I sort of hope The Longest Yard flops here like most gridiron movies do. I don’t even think Friday Night Lights made the Top 10 here but I may be wrong.
thats because aussies don’t have a clue about real football. its why ur backwards
Is Gabrielle Union in the Elisabeth Shue role or is it Halle Berry?
How did you not see the original Longest Yard? That’s almost a sin.
he was too busy loving bend it like beckham
Yes, only “blacks” destroy the classics. Thankfully white folks would never do such a thing. They are so above that.
Stella is a racist who hates Blacks apparently. And Whites. Who do you like?
He likes people who like the English Patient. All twelve of them.
I thought Cedric the Entertainer was a man of color? He is ruining film as we speak.
ur saying u didn’t love johnson family vacation??? i pity the thought
Jackie Gleason is rolling over in his grave right now.
I like people who are exactly the opposite of you Mark.
I’m sure you’re breaking his heart, Stella’s Boy. Maybe you can heal it by watching The English Patient. From the word around the board is that you’re a big fan.
a liberal that hates someone? how novel
Do Liberals like anyone besides terrorists, Islamists, and themselves? Whats a terrorists best friend? A Liberal.
Well, all they seem to do is protect and defend them. Like this whole Koran story. These people are enemy combatants. Liberals are calling it a gulag. But what gulag has prisoners getting religious food, religious books, and being treated like POW’s? Ask the people in the iraq jails in the 90’s and the Russians with Stalin if they had freedom of religion and the ability to read whatever they wanted to in their gulag. The only books they should get are picture books detailing 9-11 and maybe the Bible.
Who defends the rights of people trying to kill us? Especially captured terrorists? The only people saying anything bad about the treatment at Gitmo are the prisoners themselves. it is ridiculous. All they try to do is undermine America and Americans. They need the Left’s help on it and they’re getting it.
It is unbelievable that lawyers, courts, and people can side with the rights of these types of people. They use our kindness and freedoms against us.
Hey guys, keep this to an appropriate forum, like http://www.anncoulterissexy.com, you’ll fit in better.
Just say it, they’re all assholes.
I get it. You’re an “asshole” if you tell it like it is. Thanks so much for filling all of us in whopper. You have done a great service.
Sorry, maybe asshole is too harsh. A better word is ignorant.
You know that, Mark. If you don’t agree with Liberals and follow the party line, you are ignorant or an asshole. You for one should know these things. Especially from a world expert on assholes like whoppa.
What did I ever do you to aside from this thread that you call me an asshole?
All I know is, if the administration wanted to believe in Amnesty International to justify the war, they should believe them now.
Also, apparently neither of you can read. It doesn’t say whopper and it doesn’t say whoppa.
Who needs Amnesty Int to justify anything? Obviously they don’t have a clue with the whole gulag comment. Who cares what a bunch of ivory tower Liberals who are trying to derail our victory and our toops think? Got that whopper?
Yeah, some victory. But as soon as the draft starts up we’ll turn that corner…
Whooper, when do you think they;ll have a draft? Stop living in the 60’s. Liberals. They never change.
Obviously you haven’t been paying attention to the huge slowdown in recruitment the military’s going through. Gee, I guess people don’t like sending their kids to die for oil.
I think Al Sharpton is writing here. Right, whopper?
Whopper has has much clue as Michael Moore. Which is basically none. He hates America. He hates our troops. He hates our victory. It’s sad.
I love America…I don’t like how our leaders are treating it. Our troops are great, I sure as hell wouldn’t go out there. As for victory…wake me when it happens.
Seriously, if you haven’t been paying attention to the huge shortfalls the military recruiters have been facing lately, you might want to pay attention. I seem to remember that one of the problems we had in Vietnam was an army that didn’t want to be there.
I’m sick of the political crap on this blog. All you people do is yell at each other and nobody tries to find any middle ground and it goes on and on. This is a stupid MOVIE blog. Try keeping the discussion to movies, assholes.
And I mean the assholes on BOTH sides.
Sorry Jeff, but I think I love American more than these guys. Why? Because I love American ideals like not attacking countries for false reasons. Ideals like taking care of prisoners no matter what they’ve done. The America I know would never allow torture in Abu Ghraib. Ideals like supporting the troops by not cutting taxes on the rich and not forcing working people to stay in the military after their tours are up. You jokers aren’t American. You make good blind followers. I said it and I mean it, you’re ignorant, which isn’t as bad as asshole. Assholes know what they’re doing is wrong and keep doing it. Ignorant people merely haven’t had the good fortune to gain knowledge. I suggest you gain some, and try getting your news from somewhere other than Fox. Don’t bother with the local news or most magazines either, they’re not big on truth, they just want ratings/sales. I love what America SHOULD BE, not what America IS BECOMING.
Whopper are you even American? Or you some wussy Frog or German? Cause you come off like a pinko lefty foreigner. Like Jeffrey.
i’m sick of jeffs political crap on this blog. hows that jeffrey? if u can’t take the heat then don’t post. its that simple. hence why u don’t see stella posting when it gets political anymore
Whopper, if you were a real American you would care more about the beheadings of innocent people and the torture of thousands of innocents at the hands of these terrorists than a few pictures at a prison. But thats what you Lefty’s need to keep you going. You don’t even care about the real innocents. You care more about protecting the terrorists. It is sad really.
I always laugh when I hear a Liberal talk about how the troops are great. The phoniness just drips down. These guys beg for our troops to do things wrong. They beg for scandals and anything to discredit the troops.
u can’t talk reason to a lib. u have a better chance of reasoning with the islamic terrorists
Whopper, this is an all volunteer army in America nowadays. Everyone wants to be there because they believe in America and what they are doing. Don’t speak for people and groups you really don’t know anything about. Be nice.
The Left actively roots for us to lose the War. Or even worse they’re appeasers. See how well that worked out in WW 2. Ask Neville Chamberlain now if it was a good move to appease.
The Left and coherence? That goes together like Bret Ratner and good directing.