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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates – 10/30/05

Not much new to add from the Friday analysis

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42 Responses to “Weekend Estimates – 10/30/05”

  1. PandaBear says:

    They have to love the Saw numbers. That’s pretty huge for a movie like that.

  2. Wrecktum says:

    As much as I shudder at the idea of Saw 2 opening so big, it is nice to see another $30m opening. There’s been only one other since the end of summer.

  3. Josh says:

    Audiences are desperate for anything new at the BO.

  4. LesterFreed says:

    I didn’t even know they were making a new Zorro movie. Did they even have any ads about it?

  5. jeffmcm says:

    Saw II hardly counts as “new”. In fact this is a case of audiences wanting something just like the previous entry in the franchise.

  6. Josh says:

    By that logic, jeff, nothing is “new”.

  7. Bruce says:

    Saw 2 is like any other horror movie. Either you love it or hate it. Middle ground on those types of movies are hard to come by. I liked the first one but I don’t know if I’ll see the sequel or wait til video.

  8. jeffmcm says:

    I’m not trying to pick a fight with you, Josh. But there’s a continuum from “totally new and original” and “complete duplication” and Saw II falls more on one end of that spectrum than the other….
    have you seen it?
    I thought, like the first one, that it was truly in the middle. Didn’t love it, didn’t hate it, reasonably entertaining and competently made but not spectacular.

  9. Josh says:

    Well, be ready for Saw 3 next Halloween. 30$ mill certainly means we’re seeing it.

  10. jeffmcm says:

    This time they’ll be trapped in a giant eerie cube with lasers…no, wait. Maybe there should be a chimp in it. When in doubt, add a chimp.

  11. Bruce says:

    30$ million bucks. Wow. Still can’t get over that. They got a franchise here.

  12. sky_capitan says:

    Adding a chimp is a great idea. Teach the chimp how to use a hacksaw… and… well… you know… the chimp can saw off some limbs. In fact, that’s always been my worst nightmare, being kidnapped, tied-up in a small room, and then having a chimp saw off my limbs, one by one. *shudders*
    (So Saw 3 should be set in a zoo… and maybe get all the animals involved for some gruesome fun)
    So anyone else see that Jake Gyllenhaal quote on the MCN front page under “Jake Goes For Broke”- how he broke a tooth when he “jammed (it) into [his] mouth”- and wondered, wtf????
    [clicks link]
    Oh right, forgot about Jarhead. Could only think of Brokeback Mountain. Thanks for the clarification. Haven’t seen either yet.

  13. EDouglas says:

    Saw III should have Uma Thurman and Meryl Streep chained to opposites sides of a bathroom for doing Prime.

  14. Mark Ziegler says:

    Ms Streep doing Saw 3? That would be a casting coup.

  15. Wrecktum says:

    I’d like to see Meryl Streep do a hardcore genre film. I’d be cool to see her scream her way through something rough and tumble.

  16. BluStealer says:

    That would be hilarious casting. Streep has been taking a lot of chances lately and taking funner projects recently. Maybe theres a chance.

  17. MattM says:

    Even at a dramatically reduced rate, Streep’s salary for a movie would probably be double to triple whatever the budget of “Saw 3” is likely to be. And why would they bother with a “name star” given that they’ve demonstrated already that the name “Saw” is worth almost as much as pretty much any star name in opening a flick.

  18. BluStealer says:

    Way to be literal, MattM. I don’t think anyone really believes they’re going to cast Meryl in Saw 3. But thanks.

  19. bicycle bob says:

    20 mill for zorro 2 is a good number too. i didn’t hear any buzz for that.

  20. EDouglas says:

    20 million *would* be good for Zorro 2. Too bad it only made $16.4 million.

  21. MattM says:

    Y’know what surprised me? What film had the biggest PSA this weekend, and actually gained gross while losing screens? “El Vacilon: The Movie,” which would certainly seem to demonstrate DP’s argument about niche play.

  22. Wrecktum says:

    The biggest PSA for a mainstream film was Shopgirl in its second weekend expansion. Success?

  23. Terence D says:

    I’d like to see Shopgirl opened nationally before I call it a success.

  24. Mark Ziegler says:

    Good Night and Good Luck is going to have a hard time finding traction. Capote the same.

  25. joefitz84 says:

    I got about zero interest in Zorro and Prime. A little in Saw because I liked the first one.

  26. Bruce says:

    Mendes could have casted better than Jake Gyllenhall. He seems to be in every movie now with a 20 yr lead. I’m just not a big fan of his. He seems so one note.

  27. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Sony has its eye on int’l box office: “The Mask of Zorro” opened day-and-date in much of Latin America. That was to coincide with All Saints Day and Dia de los Muertes (the Day of the Dead), two holidays in the Catholic calendar.
    Next weekend is a true upmarket test. “Good Night, and Good Luck” may end up going over 600 screens and thus be semi-wide. “Shopgirl” goes national with an eye to suburban megaplexes.
    If “Capote” loses momentum it will be the distributor’s fault. Sony Pictures Classics doesn’t want its limited-release fare playing in suburban megaplexes. Last Friday the Edgewater Multiplex in northern New Jersey was to have picked up “Capote”; that megaplex played “Shopgirl” and “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang” instead.

  28. Richard Nash says:

    I am real curious to see how Shopgirl plays around the country. I thought it was an ok picture. Not great but not bad. Depends how they sell it. Danes was real good I thought.

  29. BluStealer says:

    This is not the 2005 for Nic Cage. First Lord of War and now Weather Man.

  30. jeffmcm says:

    It would be nice if he was changing his career to make interesting movies instead of gunk like National Treasure, but it probably won’t last long.

  31. joefitz84 says:

    Cage was doing a solid back and forth for a while. Blockbuster to good work. Back and forth. It ruins the balance when your supposed big film tanks.

  32. jeffmcm says:

    Which one was the big film? Are you talking of either Lord of War or Weather Man?

  33. Mark Ziegler says:

    Lord was his big film. Weather Man was pushed back and kind of dumped by the studio. It was one of those “good script but how do we sell this thing” movies.

  34. Sanchez says:

    Lord of War is one of the most underrated films of this year. Say what you will. It will still be remembered years from now.

  35. jeffmcm says:

    Lord of War was certainly far superior to National Treasure, the least action-packed of any Jerry Bruckheimer movie I’ve ever seen.

  36. Sanchez says:

    I truly never felt any suspense in Treasure. I felt it could have been ten times better.

  37. The Premadator says:

    The Weather Man was the feel bad movie of the year. I had to rent Papillon after to cheer me up.

  38. BluStealer says:

    I’ll admit. Watching Cage getting pelted with Big Gulps, taco’s, etc in the trailers is really funny.

  39. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Lord of War was considered a “big” movie? Er… righteo.
    “Ghost Rider” will be Cage’s next big movie. It’ll be a decent success and then he can make another Weather Man or something to be feel better about prostituting himself so much.
    The Saw movies will be just like the Halloween movies. They’ll cease being remotely scary and still make it to around $30mil each. Then when they’re all dried up they’ll release Saw: S20 or something and revive the franchise.
    Halloween: H20 was on tele the other night and I’d forgotten how it was ACTUALLY a pretty decent movie. Of course some people won’t acknowledge it purely because it’s a horror movie aimed at teenagers.
    On the matter of Shopgirl, GN&GL and Capote I think Shopgirl has the chance to make it to $20 mil or so, but it just doesn’t seem like it’ll get much farther. GN&GL would probably be more successful it it remained in semi-limited release. As others have said, if it goes wider and fails then that will hurt it. Capote is the same I think. Unless they can come up with a killer trailer for a wider audience that emphasises the fact that it’s sort of a murder mystery type movie instead of a “let’s get Phillip Seymour Hoffman an Oscar” movie.

  40. The Premadator says:

    Re: My above comments on The Weather Man.
    I should probably also mention that Michael Caine gives one of the best performances I’ve seen in any film this year. Strange how that works out.

  41. MattM says:

    Weather Man was a fairly good film, but I’m hard pressed to, even in my imagination, come up with one that was harder to market. The trailer actually, I thought, was fairly effective, but the poster just didn’t work.

  42. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    For “Lord Of War” Nic Cage was postered as being covered in insects, and for “The Weather Man” he was, what? Covered in paint?
    That… didn’t make sense.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4