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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates 1/2/06

Why do I find the box office so boring right now?
Probably because the boundaries are already pretty well defined and now the jostling is simply for position.
There is no reason to think that King Kong won

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144 Responses to “Weekend Estimates 1/2/06”

  1. Bruce says:

    Oh my. Where is BBM??? Conspiracy!

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    It made $4.7 million over the four-day weekend, with an average of $17,700 per theater. Pretty damn good.

  3. Nicol D says:

    I think we need to get Michael Moore on this ASAP. There IS a conspiracy.
    I have proof that every single exhibitor and distributor which reported box office results this weekend deliberately and consciously first called every exhibitor and distributor exhibiting and distributing Brokeback Mountain under false pretenses.
    They found out what’s its per screen average was, then they all called each other and collectively agreed to increase their own estimations so that Brokeback Mountain would deliberately and consciously be excluded from the number one slot.
    Do you really think it is a coincidence that the very week-end that Brokeback Mountain made more money than any other film, it is the very weekend the number one slot was restolen by the neo-fascist wet dream of Narnia.
    Brokeback Mountain is being oppressed by the patriarchy!
    Search your hearts and souls…you know this to be true.

  4. mutinyco says:

    Blame Larry David.

  5. Stella's Boy says:

    You feeling OK Nicol? Still a little hungover?

  6. Angelus21 says:

    Larry David single handedly killed Brokeback.

  7. Rob says:

    I love that no supposed Brokeback conspiracy theorists actually posted, and yet there’s a still backlash against them. Charming.

  8. Josh says:

    Ha.
    Great call, Nicol! We need Mikey Moore on this. This is his sequel to Fahrenhype. Maybe he can connect this to oil and Bush.

  9. PandaBear says:

    Narnia a bigger hit than Kong. Has to be one of the surprises of the past few months.

  10. Stella's Boy says:

    Definitely. Did anyone honestly expect Narnia to do better than KK?

  11. Nicol D says:

    Stella,
    Yes, yesterday was a little rough. Too much whisky in the egg nog.
    I must say though this is an interesting holiday season for films. That Narnia will beat King Kong is very interesting. I supect it will be considered a fluke that can never again be repeated. It obviously isn’t the hit with the people that BBM is according to the mainstream press.
    Also, Jennifer Aniston, unless her next film with Vince Vaughn is a hit (fortunately for her a good bet), can also call her career as a leading lady over.
    Many high profile underperfromers this season.
    Syriana, Geisha, The Ringer.
    Even the ‘hits’ such as Dick and Jane and Cheaper by the Dozen are more hits because there is nothing else in these categories as opposed to bonafide, ‘talk about it with your friends’ hits.
    It is sad that all of the big talked about Oscar films are ones that the majority of people have very little interest in, with the exception of Walk the Line. I do believe art and commerce can collide.
    On a serious note, it will be interesting to see the spin if BBM countinues to fall as it goes wide.
    Hopefully this weekend I will finally be able to check out Munich.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    I agree with you about Narnia Nicol. It has very quietly done over $217 million so far, and seems well on its way to more than $250 million. That is damn impressive. As for BBM, I can see the spin already. It didn’t crossover to red states.

  13. David Poland says:

    Ironically, no one noticed that #6 The Family Stone’s gross was missing from the list. It was a front page production mistake and has since been corrected (here as well).
    BBM was #13 on the 4-day weekend-
    #12 The Producers – $5.3m ($5,390 per) – up 59% – 978 screens $11.9m total
    #13 Brokeback Mountain – $5.1m ($18,880 per) – up 72% – 269 screens – $15.3m total

  14. lindenen says:

    I actually just went to go see The Family Stone and it was sold out. Parking was horrendous and then we had to trudge through the rain to find out it was sold out. I wonder if building the multiplexes really was a good idea. A theatre with only two or three screening rooms in it would be less expensive to maintain and less obnoxious to attend.
    Actually, Narnia’s success make sense to me. Narnia attracts families instead of teenage boys. Whole families are going to see it. There’s some quote from some dead Hollywood mogul about how four+ people buying tickets is better than two. I know people who’ve gone to that movie with their grandmother. Grandma’s not going to want to see King Kong. Also, I suspect Narnia is doing better than Kong because you can show it more times during the day. Whoever didn’t make Jackson cut King Kong down to 2 hours is an idiot.
    I love this quote from Poland’s post:
    “How many families were going to have their $100 day at the movies for Narnia and then spend another $100 to go see Kong in the next couple weeks? Not enough for Universal.”
    This is the problem exactly. The movies cost too much. Chop the price in half and your average family might decide they can see King Kong and Narnia.

  15. lindenen says:

    Gee. Maybe the Laffer Curve also applies to the cost of going to the movies!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
    “The Laffer curve, popularized and promoted by economist Arthur Laffer and often used to justify tax cuts, is intended to show that government can maximize tax revenue by setting a tax rate at the peak of this curve and that raising taxes further actually decreases revenue.”

  16. Jim says:

    “On a serious note, it will be interesting to see the spin if BBM countinues to fall as it goes wide.”
    If I may ask, how has the movie continued to fall? Nearly $5 million over the weekend in less than 300 theaters is fine. No one ever expected the film to be on par with Narnia or other blockbusters. The media coverage has been that BB M has reached a wider audience than most gay-related films, not that BBM was a huge phenomenon.
    Kaus and Friedman have been conspicously silent about the film’s weekend total – if the numbers were bad they would have crowed and crowed by now, since they have repeatedly said the film has been losing steam, everyone who wants to see the movie has already done so, and all the rest.
    It seems like because of the perception of media bias towards this movie, there’s some need in some quarters to downplay any success the film has had. The movie is never going to be a mainstream hit. Not even close. But if the movie were the overrated or overhyped “agenda” film that so many criticize it as, then the numbers would be much weaker by now.
    “Definitely. Did anyone honestly expect Narnia to do better than KK?”
    Most of the people I know expected Narnia to do better. Narnia has been marketed to the same churchgoers who made Passion of the Christ a hit through repeated attendance. This year has been AWFUL for remakes, and King Kong is not only a remake, it’s 3 hours long and has questionable appeal.
    I’m not a bit surprised Narnia is more popular than King Kong. I’m just surprised that The Family Stone has been holding up fairly well. I heard such harsh, negative comments from some people who went to see it. I guess the people who love the film love it as much as other people hate it.

  17. joefitz84 says:

    It’s real lazy to attribute the success of Narnia to Christians and church goers. Maybe it’s a good movie that resonates with a lot of people especially kids?
    So, why doesn’t every movie target Christians and bow down before them and beg for their good word and their money?

  18. Bruce says:

    I, for one, am completely shocked that King Kong is behind Narnia. I thought Kong would be the monster hit of the year especially after I saw it. Kids and other groups just don’t care to see it again and again which a movie like that needs. Repeat business.

  19. lindenen says:

    “Kids and other groups just don’t care to see it again and again which a movie like that needs. Repeat business.”
    It would probably get repeat business if it wasn’t three hours long.

  20. thelma says:

    Wait… what spin with BBM.
    Of course the movie will fall as it goes wider – like every movie does. I guess you mean a PTA fall, cause the grosses keep increasing (Logically, as well)
    There is no need to spin anything… apart from last weekend, BBM numbers have seen nothing short of sensational and yes, this weekend too. The expansion has been really succesful and right now, It is crossing over… and I am so surprised this has to be explained, isn

  21. Jim says:

    “It’s real lazy to attribute the success of Narnia to Christians and church goers. Maybe it’s a good movie that resonates with a lot of people especially kids?”
    Walden and Disney heavily marketed the film to Christians. What’s lazy about attributing the success to this audience?
    “So, why doesn’t every movie target Christians and bow down before them and beg for their good word and their money? ”
    The more films target Christians, Christians would have less resources to spend. These films would have to compete against each other and cancel each other out.
    “The expansion has been really succesful and right now, It is crossing over… and I am so surprised this has to be explained, isn

  22. Sanchez says:

    Titanic got repeat business and that was 3 hours and so did the RIng movies. It can be done.

  23. Scooba Steve says:

    I think everyone expected Kong to gain its footing and begin to rally. But it’s just not happening.

  24. thelma says:

    “If people want the film to fail, they will spin the numbers however way they want”.
    Of course… but these numbers are really difficult to spin. Brokeback increased around 20% in theaters but the 4-day gross went up 149% – the others film increased in a 46-107% range. Only “The matador” and “Match point” – in less than 10 screens – had a better PTA.
    People may spin whatever they want to, yeah… But aren

  25. Sanchez says:

    Per screen average is one of the msot overrated terms out there right now.
    Did anyone expect BBM not to play huge in the select markets it was released in?? Seriously.
    When it opens wide and it does well you can gloat all you want here. Until then pipe down.

  26. thelma says:

    Yes, people have been saying that all along. “Let

  27. Paul8148 says:

    I talk to a female co-worker today to see want the buzz was about the female movie goers and there is still light (but growing) buzz of Kong, but the most talked about Is The Family Stone. I would not be surpise (through the threater counts with Grandama’s Boy is going to hurt it) can get closer to 70 million when it said and done. They really screw themselves over it.

  28. peteinportland says:

    What kind of la-la land are some of you people living in, I wonder. First some posters whine about BBM fans shouting conspiracy when none had even posted. Then some posters decide to spin BBM’s very good weekend in a negative light and say the movie is “falling.” Then, when BBM fans take issue with that and point out the obvious, they are acussed of gloating and told to “pipe down.” What a load of horse hockey!
    This last weekend is the weekend that BBM opened in such red state places as Kansas City, Indianapolis, Albq, and San Antonio among others. Although it only added 52 theaters, it had a 72% increase and once again had a whopping PSA. One might also note that Munich was on twice as many screens but made only a million more than did BBM. BBM is still in pre-release and has made back its 14 mill budget plus change already. I’m sorry, but this is a stellar weekend for BBM: there is no other way it can be spun.
    This coming weekend, there will be another slight expansion of BBM while Munich opens wide, so the two movies will still not be in an even head-to-head box office battle. There is a very good possibility that both of these movies have another four months of box office ahead of them. It will be interesting to see how it all comes out in the end.

  29. David Poland says:

    A big problem with the BBM box office discussion is that it opens the door to both arguments. The film is very lmited and there is a reason why Focus has chosen to keep it very limited. If the film could be doing Family Stone numbers to date by opening like Family Stone, you can be sure that Focus would have done it just like that. (The films cost about the same.)
    On the flip side, the exclusive and limited pattern has been an undeniable success. What will happen when it expands? No one really knows. But it seems likely that the reception will not be as outstanding compared to every other movie. So, Focus has given us the “wow” in limited and now, they hope to have a solid expansion.
    The reason the current box office position of the film gets slammed is because of all the hype around it. The notion that it is a box office smash or that it has found acceptance outside of major cities is simply untrue. Only Santa Cruz, Boca Raton, Albuquerque seem to be current playdates that are neither suburbs of majors cities or major “liberal” strongholds… and Boca Raton has been a early playdate for most Miramax films interested in older viewers.
    BBM’s success so far should be celebrated. But outside of whack jobs like Roger Friedman, the reason there is resistance is that when you keep being told, “It’s a breakthough, landmark moment,” when it really is not that, at some point you start going, “Really? What about X and what about Y and what about Z…etc etc etc?”
    This is why Disney’s handling of Narnia has been one of their most silky smooth moves in a long while… big hit… very little hype, hype, hype. They didn’t overhype going in and they haven’t hyped since they’ve succeeded. Great work by their team.

  30. David Poland says:

    Pete… those increases are not really very good landmarks… 4 day weekend… Christmas Eve slowdown, etc.
    You’re right… I thought Munich was going wide later. But there will not be an effective head-to-head. But I do believe the slight expansion will nearly double the screen count.
    This was another strong limited release weekend for BBM. But to call it “stellar” is excessive. And to say it’s fading is excessive. We are moving into a quieter moviegoing period. And we will see how the expansion does, how the Golden Globes move or doesn’t move the needle, and if the month can deliver another $15 million before Oscar nominations are announced.
    What Would Ang Do? Well we know one thing… he wouldn’t be in such a rush… on either side of the discussion.

  31. Jim says:

    “This is why Disney’s handling of Narnia has been one of their most silky smooth moves in a long while… big hit… very little hype, hype, hype. They didn’t overhype going in and they haven’t hyped since they’ve succeeded. Great work by their team.”
    I seem to remember many, many press articles before Narnia opened which said Disney/Walden wanted the film to have huge numbers, they wanted the film to be “their” Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter.
    “BBM’s success so far should be celebrated. But outside of whack jobs like Roger Friedman, the reason there is resistance is that when you keep being told, “It’s a breakthough, landmark moment,” when it really is not that, at some point you start going, “Really? What about X and what about Y and what about Z…etc etc etc?””
    The problem here is that there has been resistance from the very start. Before the film opened in America, people claimed the Cannes snub showed that the movie was doomed. Every single time people have shown some kind of happiness about the film’s box office performance, they are told to wait. When a major article comes out praising the film’s financial success, people cry bias and claim the media refuses to be more negative about a gay film (I don’t remember all this positive media hype before Alexander opened – I remember articles saying the movie would flop because of gay content). Essentially, every step of the way, time and effort has been made to devalue and undercut any success or praise the film has. If you wonder why some people overhype the film, this is why. When you have to hear over and over that a movie is going to be a huge failure and a rejection of evil liberal homosexual Hollywood and all the rest, then sure, you are going to be proud when the film does okay. The media assumes most gay-themed material fail outside of a niche audience. The same was supposed to happen with BBM. As soon as the film moved outside of LA/San Francisco/New York, the numbers were supposed to falter and then we would see how much “mainstream” America hated the movie, and all the rest. That has yet to happen, so this is probably taken with some wonder by some segments of the press, because their expectations were so low.
    David, what I’m trying to say is that you can’t be shocked by people who have high regard for the film’s performance when there is the feeling that so many people are out to nitpick this movie and its performance to death.

  32. Sanchez says:

    Why wouldn’t Disney want huge numbers from Narnia? Isn’t that the goal?
    I’m starting to puke everytime i hear about “stellar per screen numbers”. Just open wide already and let’s see if you have it or don’t have it. Focus is scared they’re going to bomb out on the first wide weekend. That’s what it says to me.

  33. Josh says:

    Jim,
    Please don’t compare BBM to Alexander. Terrible comparison. If it’s anything like Alexander than they have more things to worry about than the gay thing.

  34. Jim says:

    “Just open wide already and let’s see if you have it or don’t have it. Focus is scared they’re going to bomb out on the first wide weekend. That’s what it says to me.”
    Or maybe they’re trying to build a buzz for the film, which seems to have succeeded so far. This movie was never supposed to be a huge blockbuster, far from it. They have already moved the wide release dates up because of the demand for the movie. So they must not be too scared.

    Please don’t compare BBM to Alexander. Terrible comparison.”
    I wasn’t comparing the films, I was comparing the media reaction to the films. If, as so many people claim, there is a huge media bias in favor of all films that feature gay content, then I never got that sense with Alexander. From the getgo many in the press seemed determined to claim the movie would fail because America was not ready for gay content. The lousy qualitfy of the film itself was a non-issue.

  35. David Poland says:

    BBM has been a cause from the first screenings. To suggest that there has been anything less than an avalanche of positivity from the media is a dubious assertion.
    And last I checked, two wrongs still don’t make a right.
    I tend to be suspicious wheneven media spouts exactly the marketing line over and over and over again, no matter what the movie. (See: King Kong)

  36. martin says:

    BBM’s #’s are definitely impressive but look at the charts – the #’s this last weekend are on steroids. A week from now, everything will have big drops. BBM will not perform at nearly the same levels. I can’t imagine BBM doing over $50 mill. domestic, but even there it would be a nice financial success.
    Otherwise – King Kong is doing better than I expected. Seeing last weeks #’s it was clear to me that Narnia would be the one with legs and easily pass Kong. But the monkey did pretty well this weekend. $225-250 may well be within its reach, and $250 domestic (more than War of the Worlds made) is a solid #. Despite Drudge, etc. it won’t go down in history as a domestic flop.
    Fun with Dick is doing huge (all things considered). I guarantee you no one at the studio thought this had a chance at $90-100 mill. domestic as of a month ago. Carrey deserves more box office credit than he’s getting for this. Not just a situation where it’s unique in the marketplace, people are genuinely interested in seeing this piece of shit. Good for Sony/Glazer/etc.
    Munich #’s are hard to pin down, but it’s not tearing up the charts. May be a wait and see till Oscar noms.
    Syriana and Geisha may well be modest awards/financial disappointments but they can no longer be considered flops. $50 mill. apiece would have to be considered pretty decent business. And Clooney’s GNGL may make its way back onto the charts come Oscar time (if it’s still remembered).

  37. Jim says:

    “BBM has been a cause from the first screenings. To suggest that there has been anything less than an avalanche of positivity from the media is a dubious assertion.
    And last I checked, two wrongs still don’t make a right.”
    Sure, two wrongs don’t make a right, but I think that people who constantly find fault with a film’s performance solely because they are upset with supposed media bias are more incorrect than people who just want a movie to do well.
    I have seen a lot of positive comments from the media about the quality of the film, although I do remember heavy hype that the film must be horrible if Cannes was not interested. I have not seen as many articles which claim that the film is a landmark in terms of box-office performance. Some articles may claim this, but most of those who do are simply saying that the movie is breaking new ground for a film with such heavy gay themes. Other articles have been just the opposite, and claimed that the movie probably wouldn’t do very well because of the “heartland”. Most of these articles contain lengthy quotes from talking heads who claim that the movie causes men to leave their wives, that the movie will flop as soon as it leaves those evil liberal cities, the movie is dangerous, etc. Judging by some of the complaints about media coverage, you would think that every single paper spent every day begging readers to see this movie.
    “BBM’s #’s are definitely impressive but look at the charts – the #’s this last weekend are on steroids. A week from now, everything will have big drops. BBM will not perform at nearly the same levels.”
    You’re probably right, but I remember not long ago, Friedman claimed that the movie had peaked, the numbers were going down with each wider release, everyone who wanted to see the movie already had. That has not been the case. As long as people continue to think the worst in terms of the movie’s box office performance, then they are unwittingly giving the film more momentum and more positive buzz, because the movie will surpass the low expectations that are set by these doom-and-gloom predictions.

  38. wholovesya says:

    Me can be silent no more!
    First off, this whole Cannes rejection story is only half true and if Variety was smarter (it was a small item in one of their stories last spring) they would have reported it correctly the first time. Brokeback was only rejected for competition by the festival. It was invited to be in the premieres section (a la Match Point) and they declined. Cannes has been wrong before (and rejected numerous beloved films no one knows about), let this one go. Remember, it won Venice. If Focus is going to keep quiet and not defend their own movie on this subject, then someone has to.
    Second, did anyone ever theorize that the only reason the movie didn’t have a great Christmas weekend (which wasn’t subpar in the first place) was because it’s audience was out of town???? It’s skeweing younger and while I love the movie, no one goes to Mom and Dad even at home in NYC and says. “O.K., so “Chronicles of Narnia” or “Brokeback”?” and wins the Brokeback arguement. The audience for the movie in the big cities came home and voila! They came back to see the movie. And they may still come next weekend too…
    Third, if anyone can’t figure out that Focus is waiting till after the globes and a hopeful Best Picture Drama win to go wide you’re talking through your ass. The Globes is the second biggest television award show of the year. You get the win and the publicity and open after all the heavyweights are gone or the competition is less. Focus is certainly not the first studio to do this (Miramax did it basically ever year) and they won’t be the last. So, just realize the movie is going to do what it is going to do till after the Globes and then you can all bitch about it. Two weeks people. Table the arguement till then.

  39. Martin S says:

    Why is everyone surprised BBM is doing solid business, as of right now?
    We’re talking about 269 screens across the entire States. If Boca is the only place in Florida you can see the flick over the holidays, you’re going to get people from as far as Orlando and Key West to make the trip, because they have the time to do it.
    The Pro-BBM is right to point out that the movie has strong legs, but to compare its PTA to anything in wide release is disingenuous. In other words, what would the Narnia PTA numbers be if it was only playing on 500 screens?
    Side Question – what are the headlines going to read next Monday when Hostel tops Narnia?

  40. martin says:

    Hostel looks a little too arty and inaccessible for its own good, Narnia at $20 mill next weekend is going to be close to Hostel, and may well beat it.
    And when did it become “PTA”? I prefer PSA, public education over grade-school connotation.

  41. djk813 says:

    The frustrating thing is that the BBM box office “argument” is a moving target that can be set wherever you want. First, can we all agree that it’s going to be a win for Focus? They’re going to get a good return on their investment, and they have probably been able to keep their advertising costs down with a lot of free publicity.
    Beyond that, is there some definition of what would raise it from merely a success to a cultural landmark in box office terms? Is the comparison Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon which had the disadvantage of subtitles going against it? That film had almost exactly the same box office gross as BBM at the end of December, also its fourth weekend in limited release (though on 100 fewer screens at that point). It used critical acclaim, awards success, and a slow expansion (not over 1000 screens until February) to get to over $125M at the domestic box office. Does BBM have to match CTHD to earn a place as a true breakthrough phenomenon? It has a shorter Oscar season to play with and doesn’t have the action element that CTHD had to draw in men. Does BBM need to hit $100M? $75M?
    BBM has two months to milk. Will it sweep the Globes, get double digit Oscar nominations, and be the big winner Oscar night? I understand that speculation is fun, but the reality is that this is a long haul situation and there’s still a lot of the story to unfold. There’s no need to make some final declaration about its place in history at this time.

  42. martin says:

    BBM at $100 mill will be an unqualified success story. The problem is that, despite its subject matter, lack of major stars, low-budget, etc. after ALL the awards attention and publicity its expectations go through the roof. So for example, 2 months ago people saying BBM hitting $30 mill would sound like solid success. Now, to me at least, that # would be a disappointment. I’d say $50 mill is the rock bottom of it being considered a hit with audiences.

  43. Mr. Bloppy says:

    “Walden and Disney heavily marketed the film to Christians. What’s lazy about attributing the success to this audience?”
    It’s lazy, Jim, because that was just a small part of the audience they marketed to. It’s shocking how little you understand this.

  44. Wayman_Wong says:

    Poland: ”Munich and Brokeback Mountain are undeniably in the same box office zone, as they are in the awards zone. Munich is on more screens, but BBM has been out 2 more weeks. On Friday, BBM will expand to a number similar to Munich’s and we’ll see how that goes.”
    1. ”Munich” is on 532 screens ($15.7 million), as opposed to ”BBM’s” 269 screens ($15.3 million). It’s on about twice as many screens, but grossed only about $400,000 more.
    2. Yes, ”Brokeback” has been out 2 weeks more, but what you didn’t mention was: ”Brokeback” was only on 5 screens in its first week, and only 69 screens in its second week.
    Only after, say, Jim, Thelma, PeteinPortland, etc., pipe up, do you acknowledge that ”Brokeback’s” exclusive and limited pattern is ”an undeniable success,” but it’s primarily you and Roger Friedman who keep denying it. Did anyone ever think a gay cowboy indie movie was gonna rival ”King Kong”? Geez, given its budget ($14 million) and subject matter, it IS a breakthrough of sorts, even in its 4th week.
    You underestimated ”Brokeback’s” box office in September (”$20 million max”), and on Dec. 25, you acknowledged ”I am sure the film will get to $40 million now.” The way the numbers are going, I believe $40 million is an underestimation, and I don’t even think $60 million is out of reach, a number that even you would say is ”stunning.”
    ”Brokeback” HAS benefitted from ”an avalanche of positivity in the media,” as well as awards and rave reviews. But you seem to think it’s all due to a ”cause.” I would suggest that ”Schindler’s List” also benefitted from the same things, not because it was noble, but because it really happens to be a great movie. By comparison, ”Munich” is no ”Schindler’s List”; if it were, it would be sweeping up the same awards, rave reviews & ”media avalanche.” For all the ink that’s been spent on ”Brokeback,” I await your detailed box-office scrutiny (and Friedman’s) of ”Munich.”

  45. Wayman_Wong says:

    Correction: I meant to use the word ”theater” instead of ”screen.” That is: ”Brokeback” was only in 5 theaters (not screens) in its opening week and in 69 theaters in its second week, etc.

  46. palmtree says:

    First I hear Brokeback’s buzz is peaking too early and will fizzle out. Then I hear it will fail when it expands to less metropolitan areas. It seems to be a contradiction. It can’t fizzle out unless it expands to the whole country and fails (which it hasn’t done yet). And the reason it’s not expanding is to keep the buzz from peaking.
    I think the media has made Brokeback seem to be blown out of proportion, but concerning actual audiences (and more importantly, the Academy), this doesn’t seem to be the case. There are plenty of hetero men out there who will protest it (perhaps a little too much), but some of them will come around as the film is getting attention for being about more than homosexuality (I haven’t yet heard any qualms about the portrayal of cowboy life depicted in the film).
    This movie is kind of like Dr. Seuss’ green eggs and ham. Theoretically, most people shouldn’t like this movie, but then again, most people haven’t tried it.

  47. Nicol D says:

    Part of the problem with modern discussions of what is or is not a hit is that we no longer use the same standards for each film.
    A hit with the public is how many bums are in the seats; is it talked about; is it enjoyed.
    A hit in the media and the industry is how many people saw it with respect to budget, P & R, subject matter, topicality, awards, critical kudos etc.
    I remember being an usher in the summer of 1991. We showed The Rocketeer and Thelma and Louise. Rocketeer outgrossed Thelma by roughly 1-2 million yet Thelma was pegged as the blockbuster of the summer and The Rocketeer was considered virtually DOA.
    Same thing now. King Kong may be underperforming but a hell of a lot of people will have paid to sit through it relatively speaking. Yet they seem to think it is only ‘okay’. Great last half, drecky first half. Media calls it a disappointment.
    Let’s say best case scenario Brokeback Mountain earns 50 million. It will be touted as one of the biggest hits of the year in the media and the industry. Yet 50 million for any major film by todays standards means not too many of your friends have seen it (even in the Blue States).
    It means at the water cooler you would be more popular talking about the latest episode of ‘According to Jim’.
    Last year Sideways earned 71 million. A good film to be sure, but did it have any cultural impact whatsoever? Does anyone quote it? Talk about it?
    I remember as a child when 48 Hrs came out in 1982. It grossed close to 80 million. But EVERYONE talked about it. Even as a child you knew this was a film on the cultural radar. It was organic. I HAD to see it. It played in my town for almost a year.
    Nowadays a film can earn 200 million like King Kong and nobody seems to care.
    The flip side is a film can be talked about and written about to death in the media like Brokeback Mountain because of its ’cause’ yet the mainstream at large really doesn’t care.
    If BBM, with all of the kudos, the publicity and the orgasming press can’t ‘get it up’ over the 100 million mark…that tells me that a hell of a lot of Blue Staters took a pass also.
    Seems to me, a true hit should have both plenty of people seeing it and affecting the culture from the bottom up, not the top down.

  48. Wayman_Wong says:

    To give credit where it’s due, it’s Roger Friedman at Fox News who first crowed: ‘Brokeback Faces Burnout at Box Office’ on Dec. 23. He claimed that ‘Brokeback’ was 51% off from that Sunday; what he didn’t say was that nearly EVERY movie in the top 10 was off more than 50%. He added, ”But now it may be that reality is setting in, and reality bites, as we all know.”
    He concluded: ”Today, ‘Brokeback’ nearly doubles its number of theaters to 217, but this may be the real litmus test.” … Let’s see what he has to say now that it’s playing in 269 theaters, and its gross has gone up 72%, as opposed to ”Munich,” which remained about the same, even though it’s in twice as many theaters.
    I wonder how long it’ll be before the ”reality” sinks in with Friedman.

  49. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “Also, Jennifer Aniston, unless her next film with Vince Vaughn is a hit (fortunately for her a good bet), can also call her career as a leading lady over.”
    er, the film is very likely going to get to $50. Is that not good for such a film? Rumor Has It seems to be going pretty well.
    “I’m starting to puke everytime i hear about “stellar per screen numbers”. Just open wide already and let’s see if you have it or don’t have it. Focus is scared they’re going to bomb out on the first wide weekend. That’s what it says to me.”
    I don’t remember this argument for so many others films that had the same strategy. Hell, Sideways didn’t go into wide release until 2005 and it was out way before Brokeback Mountain.
    Can we just admit that currently BBM is going well. It isn’t bombing yet (it’s already made it’s budget back so everything from here is gravy) and it isn’t doing stratospheric PSA numbers, which some people would have us believe. It’s doing really well for itself.
    However, even non-fans (on here or any other movie-related site0 of BBM should by pure virtue of their being want the film to succeed. It will only add to the value of cinema in the future if a film such as this can be financially and critically successful. Or do we want 10 variations on Ray/Walk The Line/Finding Neverland every year?
    There once was a time for mere dramatic films about people could gross anywhere up to $300mil! Those days aren’t now – but, can’t we wish they were? Can’t we wish financial success on films that aren’t King Kong, Narnia or Star Wars?

  50. palmtree says:

    Was Million Dollar Baby a flop even as it only did $8.5 million by the Oscar nominations? That means post nomination and post wins it earned $92 million. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: Brokeback’s release strategy is very similar to Million Dollar Baby (opening limited mid December, go wide in mid/late January).
    Mr. Poland, I don’t think Focus ever considered this release for anything other than what they are currently doing (more than box office they want Oscar). While $100 m is a stratospheric estimate at this point, I think when the Golden Globes and Oscar come calling, Brokeback won’t nearly fade out as fast as it’s expected to.

  51. Nicol D says:

    Kamikaze,
    No, Rumor Has It, it was virtually DOA. I’ll be stunned if this pup gets to 50 mill. But let’s say it does.
    With these people involved? Again, no cultural impact whatsoever.
    The only thing I hear people talking about with respect to this film is that Jen sure looks great in those low riders on the poster.
    No cultural impact whatsoever…at least that’s how rumor has it.

  52. James Leer says:

    Well, I think BBM obviously has had a cultural impact, just to judge from all the discussion it’s generated.
    As far as Sideways goes, it was more of a light comedy so I wouldn’t hold it to the same yardstick, but every time I’ve heard merlot mentioned in the last year, someone pipes up with Paul Giamatti’s line: “I am NOT drinking any fucking merlot!” It’s almost impossible not to at least think it.

  53. esther_rolle says:

    Ok, now I can no longer keep quiet either. Some of you (Poland, Freidman, Kaus, Sanchez, Nicol D, et al.) are determined that BBM be labled a failure, regardless of how well it performs at the B.O. Now, according to Nicol D., even if it surpasses $100 million, it will still be a failure. Poland hedges his bets by now saying that if it does good box office it’s only because of the media hype. Oh brother! You keep raising the stakes.
    And what exactly is this “orgasming press” and “avalanche of positivity”? Are you taling about the reviews? News stories about the critic awards and other nominations? A couple of news stories about the “undeniable success” (a phrase used by Poland himself) in its limited run? Feature articles about the films content (which is certainly fair given its groundbreaking themes, its director and its award buzz)? You folks will continue to spout this disgenuous spin as BBM continues to rack up tons of ink over the next couple of months through its guild and globe wins, mounting BO cume, and inevitable oscar nominations and oscar run. I for one will enjoy returing this board to view your increasingly desperate and outlandish contrivances. hope you naysayers have a nice big bowl of piping hot at your disposal….

  54. waterbucket says:

    BBM rocks my world!!! I will see it probably 3 more times just for that final line of Heath Ledger: Jack, I swear…

  55. Jim says:

    “It’s lazy, Jim, because that was just a small part of the audience they marketed to. It’s shocking how little you understand this.”
    They went as far as to make material to use in Sunday School classes. You can debate how much they marketed to other audiences, but their efforts with Christians were not “small”. If my opinion shocks you, then you must be flabbergasted on a frequent basis, because I’m not the only person who feels this way. I think some people need to deny that the film was extensively marketed to Christians (which is not the same thing as saying the film was only marketed to Christians) because they think bringing this up denigrates the success of the film. That is not the case. Evangelical Christians are not the easiest market to please – if they succeeded with this market, then they are smart businessmen, although I don’t think this will work for most other films.
    “The flip side is a film can be talked about and written about to death in the media like Brokeback Mountain because of its ’cause’ yet the mainstream at large really doesn’t care. ”
    The “mainstream” must care, since Leno has joked about the film time and time again the past month. You don’t get much more mainstream than Jay Leno. I don’t think this is some big phenomenom with the public, but is that somehow shocking, or exclusive to Brokeback Mountain? I remember when I heard nothing but media talk and media hype about The Hours, about American Beauty, about Moulin Rouge, about Life is Beautiful, and yet I never actually knew anyone, outside of film buffs, who went to see these movies. I’m sure on some of those, the grosses were much higher than what BBM will make, but they were never exactly mainstream.
    “If BBM, with all of the kudos, the publicity and the orgasming press can’t ‘get it up’ over the 100 million mark…that tells me that a hell of a lot of Blue Staters took a pass also.”
    A 2 1/2 hour, slow-paced Western featuring a homosexual romance is supposed to gross $100 million? If those are the new standards, then I guess BBM really IS doing well, huh?
    Unless the press coverage has involved an update of the “I LOVED IT. IT WAS BETTER THAN CATS. I WANT TO SEE IT AGAIN AND AGAIN.” type of hypnosis they used in the old SNL skit, I haven’t seen any press coverage for this film that I haven’t seen for countless other critically acclaimed movies.
    Actually I think in some ways this movie faced an even tougher road than those films, because SO MANY pundits or critics seemed to dislike the film because they wanted to be counterculture or cool by hating a movie they thought they had to love. That is certainly the tone of a lot of the commentary from sites like Slate and Salon. Time also gave a negative review. These are fairly influential outlets. Not exactly a full-scale press assault ordering people to see the film.
    As for the part about if the film doesn’t make a hundred million, some blue staters must have taken a pass – there are many red parts of blue states, and many people who don’t go to films period, not with the high ticket prices, the endless ads, etc.
    “Seems to me, a true hit should have both plenty of people seeing it and affecting the culture from the bottom up, not the top down.”
    Seems to me that given the very limited number of theaters, and the repeated attempts by some pundits to send this film to the morgue, the continued healthy performance does show that plenty of people are going to see it. If people didn’t want to see the movie, they wouldn’t be seeing it. The buzz only goes so far. Word of mouth gives the film more momentum and does affect the culture. Not in any significant way, but few movies affect the culture in any significant way. The movie will, maybe, at least show Hollywood that the public will not reject a gay-themed drama, that they will tolerate seeing gay men kiss or be intimate, that actors will not face career oblivion if they play gay roles.
    If you think BBM is a failure, then you can spin or discount the numbers any way you want. Personally, I do not think the movie is some huge breakthrough or a life-changing experience. But it has had a stronger performance than I expected, than a lot of people expected, and Friedman can spin himself like a top all he wants, that can’t be taken away.

  56. Roxane says:

    Wayman,
    In your comparisons between BBM and Munich you forgot to mention that Munich went up in it’s second weekend without adding any theaters or being hyped to the sky.BBM is doing well at the box office on a limited number of screens but then so did Syriana.The real test comes if and when BBM goes wide. The same can be said for Munich which goes wide next weekend.

  57. David Poland says:

    What is really stupid – yes, stupid… idiotic – is lumnping me in with Friedman. This is where you guys lose your legitimacy. I have not been bashing the movie like he has. I have never bashed any movie like he has. The comparison is cheap, lazy and unfair.
    I have no interest in saying BBM is a failure. I have acknowledged its success. But the facism is this endless “all or nothing” position.
    I am fine with you thinking BBM will be bigger than I expect. So why is it that I am a basher and unwilling to agree that the film is a success if I do anything less than agree with you and celebrate the kind of success you think will happen.
    There is not a movie in the world as universally loved as some of you like to claim BBM is. None. Not Titanic. Not Gone With the Wind. To be honest, I haven’t heard anyone who has seen the movie in recent weeks and say it was a great film… no one, gay straight or otherwise… and I have spoken to dozens who have seen it for the first time over the holiday.
    And so what? Doesn’t make people who love it love it less.
    But this is the same crazy talk that had someone saying gay America can’t afford to have Larry David making fun of the film. Wow. Larry David is now in charge of gay America.
    You guys sound like “the feminists” screaming about pornography along with the Reagan administration in the 80s. Why is the key to everything always the negative? Why is Bush’s idiotic anti-gay marriage position all people talk about instead of making a serious push to create national legislation for civil unions? I know it’s not everything, but it would be a big step.
    And by the way… who cares what Roger Friedman says? Do you think anyone takes his box office analysis seriously for a second? He will LIE to make his point. Get it? Not someone worth fighting.
    What pisses me off is that my speculation is deemd “abusive” and NOTHING I say will stop it… except for I LOVE BBM!
    Well, I don’t love the movie. I watched it a sixth time this weekend and the people who watched it hated it more than I ever could. And these are very liberal, very gay-friendly industry people. Maybe I should have fire-bombed their house for daring to have their own opinions.
    And palm… of course they considered every option. And of course, they decided this was the way to go. And if they thought there was a better answer for this film, they would have done that. I don’t get your point.
    For the record – Munich has had 5852 playdates so far and has made $2672 per. Brokeback Mountain has had 3119 playdates so far and made $4815 per.

  58. thelma says:

    Roxane,
    You forgot to add that Munich increased 47% for BBM

  59. thelma says:

    David, It doesn

  60. Jim says:

    “In your comparisons between BBM and Munich you forgot to mention that Munich went up in it’s second weekend without adding any theaters or being hyped to the sky.”
    Munich has been hyped to the sky over the past few weeks, especially by Friedman. The film is also in far more theaters and has a more well-known director than BBM.
    “There is not a movie in the world as universally loved as some of you like to claim BBM is. None. Not Titanic. Not Gone With the Wind. To be honest, I haven’t heard anyone who has seen the movie in recent weeks and say it was a great film… no one, gay straight or otherwise… and I have spoken to dozens who have seen it for the first time over the holiday.”
    #1 – who has claimed this film is universally loved?
    #2 – You have met dozens of people who don’t think the movie is great. I have no reason to doubt you, but what does this have to do with the overall box office of the film. Why did the box office go up dramatically over the past week? Or are you saying that the dozens of people you met are completely out of sync with most of those who go to see the film? Otherwise, wouldn’t word of mouth have killed the movie by now?
    “You guys sound like “the feminists” screaming about pornography along with the Reagan administration in the 80s. Why is the key to everything always the negative? Why is Bush’s idiotic anti-gay marriage position all people talk about instead of making a serious push to create national legislation for civil unions? I know it’s not everything, but it would be a big step.”
    Can you actually tell us that the current Congress would support civil unions? The federal marriage amendment Congress has repeatedly tried to pass is so broadly worded, it would probably ban marriage, civil unions, domestic partnerships, and maybe wills and hospital visitation rights as well. The people who support this don’t support civil unions. I’ve heard of accentuate the positive, but that doesn’t really work in this case.
    David, if you truly do not love the movie, and so many people you know didn’t love the movie, then couldn’t you just easily brush off criticism? Instead, you say that people think BBM is the most universally loved film ever, or you act like the entire press is on a crusade to make everyone worship at the altar of this film, or you use this huge hyperbole:
    “Maybe I should have fire-bombed their house for daring to have their own opinions.”
    What’s the point of saying that? You are painting yourself as some kind of a hysterical martyr just because people disagree with you. Don’t you realize that this type of hysteria simply makes some people even more likely to think that you have a HUGE issue with this film?

  61. Roxane says:

    Variety’s article about this past weekends box office says that BBM is not doing all that great in the suburbs. Variety reports the films box office is comparable to “Rumor Has It” in the suburbs. BBM is doing well in limited release, in selected cities, in selected theaters.If BBM really had mainstream appeal it could expand into 1400+ theaters like Munich will this weekend.

  62. Nicol D says:

    “Now, according to Nicol D., even if it surpasses $100 million, it will still be a failure.”
    This is where you ‘defenders of the faith’ lose all credibility. I said nothing of the sort.
    What I said was that with all of the praise, awards and gushing media attention this film is getting, if it does not get over 100 mill that means a lot of Blue Staters also took a pass.
    This film is being praised like few I have seen in recent cinema history by the MSM and critics groups etc. Some are saying that if it doesn’t click overall it is because ‘red staters’ didn’t accept it due to intolerance etc.
    What I am saying is that even a film that ONLY appeals to Blue State types such as F911 was able to do over 120 million. If Brokeback Mountain, armed with everything in its corner cannot do 100 (which it won’t or I will eat my shoes in a live podcast) I am not saying that makes it a failure. Just that it wasn’t ONLY redstate ‘rubes’ who took a pass.
    Perhaps the problem with how this film is being spun is that if one didn’t reaf any numbers and only the media coverage…you would think it was outgrossing Revenge of the Sith. That sort of gross overstatement has produced an obviously backlash by those who do read the numbers.
    BBM is doing very well in very limited release.
    It is being written about as though the wide release has already happened and it is on track to Titanic business.
    That is what is irking people. I have said before, I am sure it is a well made picture. I will see it on DVD.
    I just resent the endless spin due to the cause and then when I try to explain to people that it is not the smash they believe you get ‘labelled’.

  63. Melquiades says:

    Larry David wasn’t making fun of Brokeback Mountain… he was making fun of people who don’t want to see Brokeback Mountain because it’s a “gay cowboy” movie.

  64. bicycle bob says:

    the fact is that brokeback mountain is not going to be a hit when it opens wide. focus knows this fact. they’re trying to extend the buzz as long as they can. if it doesn’t open to over 10 million plus its first weekend wide, it’ll be seen as a failure by all the people pissed that focus and other writers are spinning it into a hit.

  65. Terence D says:

    Larry David is funny and all but how can you try to make fun of people for not wanting to see a gay cowboy movie? It doesn’t exactly rev the engines when you want a night out at the movies. Everyone trying to say BBM is a hit and a success is delusional. What’s your definition of success? Good buzz? A high screen average in a few markets? Than you’re right on.

  66. bicycle bob says:

    i’m worried about the brokeback defenders when the film fails at the box office.
    will they blame intolerance? will they blame christian groups? will they blame hetero men? how will they spin it?

  67. thelma says:

    Roxane,
    Variety also said (I quote) “”Brokeback” gained an amazing 61% in its fourth frame despite adding only 52 theaters”. Guess you didn

  68. Bruce says:

    “In the end, you know, It doesn

  69. thelma says:

    Bycicle Bob, how would you spin it if BBM is a success? Would you say It

  70. thelma says:

    Bruce, have you read any reviews? User comments at IMDB? Or you also happen to have only friends that did not like the film?

  71. Josh says:

    I’ve never seen a movie this passionately defended before. It must be terrific!

  72. Bruce says:

    Thelma,
    I’ve read 100 reviews of it. All say the same thing. I meant here. Real fans. Who has said why they love it? No one. All I hear is crap about “PSA” and Golden Globes and how red staters won’t accept two men kissing and frolicking or two hours. Not one person here has written a post about how much they love Heath ledgers performance. Or Michelle Williams. Or how Ang Lee shot it. Or his directing choices. So spare me the BS.

  73. bicycle bob says:

    i must have missed that memo saying brokeback passed the 40 million threshold in limited release. since its at 15 mill right now. whats a succes to u thelma and louise? 40 million? is 40 mill us box office a successful movie now? have the standards gone down to that or its just to gay movies? im curious.

  74. Rufus Masters says:

    My personal take on Brokeback Mountain?
    It was good to see in the theatre and I thought it was decent but I don’t think I’d ever watch it again. I’m not going to rush out to buy the DVD or see it again in the theatre. Maybe I’ll leave it on if I catch it on cable but maybe not. The rewatch factor wasn’t stirring in me which is how I rate films. Since I’m not a pro film critic or anything. Just a fan. I don’t see it making a killing at the box office but we all know that’s not a calling card of a good film anyway. The people defending it’s box office take certainly know that score and I don’t understand why they are taking up that argument. Better to place it in Oscars hands and go that way. It almost certainly will be one of the 5 nominees.

  75. thelma says:

    Bruce,
    We are talking box office, aren

  76. Bruce says:

    Thelma,
    If you took your head out of your arse for three seconds maybe you would comprehend a few things. Obviously, you can’t take any criticism which is effecting your position here. I know you want to see your favorite film, Brokeback Mountain, be considered a success and a huge hit. But the facts don’t support that right now. You can try and spin it anyway you want but it’s not going to work.
    And Per Screen Average is PSA.
    And you still have not stated why you love the movie besides your love of the PSA and your love of all the critic group awards it has received. Makes me wonder what your agenda is here. Even though I can take a good guess at what it is.

  77. thelma says:

    Hey Bruce,
    I

  78. bicycle bob says:

    so, thelma, by ur reasoning and logic every film that passes 40 million is a success.
    so that means fun with dick and jane is a success. as well as cheaper by the dozen 2, syriana, the family stone, bewitched, and kicking and screaming????
    i hope u get hired to do the spin at the studios with this kind of optimism.

  79. Josh says:

    I predict that BBM will break every box office record and every gay will see it 25 times and it also wins 9 Oscars and Roger Friedman wins a Pulitzer.

  80. Bruce says:

    Thelma,
    That’s how I know you don’t read or listen. Not once I have I stated that BBM is anything but successful in it’s limited run. It has been. Doing a fantastic job. If you would read instead of sticking to your agenda at all costs without the sake of clarity you would see that I’ve only questioned when it finally goes wide. Will it still be a success when it fails to maintain that PSA that you hold so dear?
    You are so blinded with love for the film that you can’t think clearly. I respect the fact that you are so totally passionate about it. I do. But you can’t come here and spin that it’s a success when it hasn’t even gone wide yet. Because that’s just false and I’m not going to let it go uncalled. Sorry.
    And you can really stop the crap that I don’t know how the box office works. It’s not brain surgery, no matter how complicated it seems to you. Just because a film makes a ton in a few theatres and on a few screens doesn’t mean it’s a hit. I know I have to pound that into your head but that’s just the way it is.

  81. thelma says:

    Bycicle Bob?
    Have you read the part about the small independent film that costs $14M with a difficult subject matter? FWDAJ cost $100M. If you don

  82. thelma says:

    Bruce,
    Maybe It

  83. BluStealer says:

    I’ve kinda had it with the spinmeisters on this movie. We all get it. It’s doing well in limited release. So have a lot of movies before it. ‘Pride and Prejudice’, ‘Memoirs of a Geisha’ to name two from this year alone. It has a lot of work to do before we call it a success. Can it do it? Sure. Why not? It is a good movie, getting great reviews, with awards buzz. A nice threesome. But it is getting tiresome hearing how much of a success it is now. It’s selling out in New York City and LA??? It must be doing great!! LOL.

  84. Bruce says:

    Thelma,
    I don’t know whether it is going to be a hit or not when it goes wide. The box office is volatile. It could make 50$ its first weekend in wide release. That would surprise me but I have been shocked before. I’m just tempering the enthusiasm for it. Because there is a good chance it’s not hitting 100$ million.
    A high PSA is not necessarily a good indicator of future success. But it’s much better than a low PSA right?
    I’ve seen the film. I thought it would do between 35-50mill. I just don’t see much commercial success after the hardcore film fans(myself included) see it and the people who wait for buzz, word of mouth, and awards.

  85. thelma says:

    Bruce,
    I

  86. Crow T Robot says:

    Wait. Back up. Poland saw Brokeback SIX times?
    Six.
    Six?
    Six!

  87. Terence D says:

    BBM dominates MCN. Luckily, there are so many good films opening in Jan-Feb.
    Laying the sarcasm on a little thick. Jan/Feb. What I call the Stephen Dorff season.

  88. Wayman_Wong says:

    David, nobody has ever said ”Brokeback” is ”universally loved.” Nobody. I’ve also said before that it’s not ”Titanic.” It’s not a love story with a blockbuster production. And personally, I don’t care that you don’t love ”Brokeback.” For someone who dislikes it so much, you’ve seen it twice as much as I have.
    All (I think) Thelma, Jim, James Leer, Esther Rolle, I and others are saying is: Give ”Brokeback” some credit for what it’s done in limited release. NO ONE is saying everyone in America is gonna love ”Brokeback” – or HAS loved it. You seem to only make a comment like ”BBM’s success so far should be celebrated” in your followup comments to pro-BBM posters; it’s never a part of your original report. If you think there are those of us who only play up its numbers, the converse is true: Some people only seem to downplay its numbers.
    If ”Brokeback” were only playing L.A., San Francisco and New York, you might have a point. But each week, it expands, and some folks continue to predict a fiasco as it widens. This past week, it added Nashville, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Tex., suburban Cleveland, Salt Lake City, etc., and it did terrific business. They’re not exactly liberal bastions. But no matter what ”Brokeback” does, it’ll never be any good enough for some of its critics.

  89. Wayman_Wong says:

    P.S. David, if you’ve seen ”Brokeback” SIX times, how many times do you see movies that you REALLY love? 😉

  90. palmtree says:

    Mr. Poland, I know this was a bit far back, but hear me out. Focus is doing what it does best, creating big buzz over “small” films. They’ve had Oscar quality stuff every year. The Pianist, Eternal Sunshine, Far From Heaven, Lost in Translation. But they’ve never hit Best Pic gold. It got really bad when Eternal Sunshine, a definite best pic contender, was botched in the release. It was so strong that it still won screenplay. Nevertheless, they’ve learned their lessons and are seemingly patterning Brokeback’s release after Million Dollar Baby, which won best pic in the new era of an earlier Oscar schedule.
    So my point is…Brokeback is a slick Oscar baby that will take box office success, but not at the expense of Oscar. And so far, it seems to be working.
    And Larry David’s comments are, as usual, a twisting of common sense. He’s not attacking the movie or gayness. He’s attacking himself. It’s not that he doesn’t think he’ll like BBM. It’s that he’s afraid he WILL like it. And when he does like, that it will reveal something about himself that he’d prefer to not know.

  91. Jim says:

    “Perhaps the problem with how this film is being spun is that if one didn’t reaf any numbers and only the media coverage…you would think it was outgrossing Revenge of the Sith. That sort of gross overstatement has produced an obviously backlash by those who do read the numbers.”
    Why would you think that? Could you consider linking to some of the articles which claim the movie is going to do as well as Revenge of the Sith?
    This is what frustrates those of us who defend this film. The film is *constantly* judged against these huge expectations, and is often judged for things that have nothing to do with the actual quality or box office performance of the film. So we are at a place now where people say if the movie doesn’t make $100 million, it’s a flop. People say the media implies that the film is going to get better numbers than Revenge of the Sith. What is next? Are people going to claim that they heard Ted Turner is going to buy up every single film on the planet not named Brokeback Mountain and set it ablaze?
    “I’ve kinda had it with the spinmeisters on this movie. We all get it. It’s doing well in limited release. So have a lot of movies before it. ‘Pride and Prejudice’, ‘Memoirs of a Geisha’ to name two from this year alone. It has a lot of work to do before we call it a success. Can it do it? Sure. Why not? It is a good movie, getting great reviews, with awards buzz. A nice threesome. But it is getting tiresome hearing how much of a success it is now. It’s selling out in New York City and LA??? It must be doing great!! LOL.”
    Memoirs of a Geisha seems to have already faltered , and BBM is selling out or coming close to selling out even in places like Kansas City or Indianonapolis – not the most liberal of cities.
    “It’s just lame spin and if it happend on any other movie it would be called out in about three seconds.”
    I would say the exact same thing about analysis like “if the movie doesn’t gross $100 million…” or “I know dozens of people who have seen this movie and none of them loved it”. That stuff would be laughed off the page with most other films of a similar nature. Yet because of this belief that the entire free world has been enslaved and forced to do the bidding of Brokeback Mountain, the movie is alternately judged as a miserable flop and yet at the same time, the evil spawn of all-powerful Hollywood liberals. People want the movie to be seen as a flop, so they will do whatever they can to minimize or spin any positive news for the film. If the movie is a flop, that means they were right. If the movie is a hit, then that isn’t much either, because since BBM has acheived complete and total domination of everyone and everything in the media according to some here, it should be making hundreds of millions of dollars overnight.
    Apparently Friedman doesn’t have much to say about this weekend’s numbers. All he says is the movie might do well at the Golden Globes because gay cowboys are “European” (what was the last gay Western from Europe?) and saying that Munich is “quickly finding an audience”, which is kind of funny, since when BBM had similar numbers, he said the movie was “losing steam” and everyone who wanted to see it had already seen it.

  92. Josh says:

    Because BBM is such a success I can’t wait for the inevitable sequels.
    BBM 2: Revenge of the Anus
    BBM 3:Attack of the Homophobes
    BBM 2 : Electric Bugaloo
    BBM Part 6: Leonard Returns
    Brokeback Begins

  93. Bruce says:

    Wayman Wong,
    You say its doing well in places that aren’t liberal bastions. But in those cities aren’t there a few hardcore film devotees that couldn’t wait to see this movie?
    When Average Joe Public sees this than I will be impressed. The only people who have seen this so far are those hardcore film fans. Like most of us here. It hasn’t crossed over. That’s why your argument is total bullshoot, pardon my french.
    If they released this wide instead of platforming it, it would have made 20 million opening weekend. That would have played much better than you defending their screen averages and saying it’s hot in Salt Lake City.

  94. Bruce says:

    I’ve seen it once. For me to sit thru it six times you would have to hold a gun to my wife’s head and threaten my children.

  95. palmtree says:

    Family Stone only hit $12 million opening wide, and that’s with the holiday theme, lots of stars, a small budget, and feel goodness. I don’t think Brokeback would do $20 million opening wide. In fact, if it did, it would be fizzling out more quickly instead of building. Instead, we are still here debating how it is doing and what it will eventually do. Pretty smart release if you ask me.

  96. David V says:

    I’ve been reading all of these BBM posts and finally feel compelled to comment.
    First off, I have never seen so many people threatened by one film’s success. That alone is proof of the homophobia this film is facing.
    Second, I am seeing this film for its merits. It moved me. I thought it was an incredible film experience. Ang Lee did an amazing job directing this picture. Heath Leger gives a fantastic performance. I cried several times during the film-not only for the sadness of the story but also the beauty and the truth that Lee found.
    Next-all of this blogging about how gay people are pushing this movie–not due to it’s own merits but because of a gay agenda-again, bizarre. Philadephia was a much more mainstream film that had more chances to make money and win awards…yet not many gay people I knew were supporting that film. I didn’t think Philadelphia was a good movie at all. I didn’t want it to do well just because it was a gay film. The truth is that many gay films, like straight films, aren’t very good.
    Last, I think that box office numbers are a very shallow way to measure this film’s success. I have read accounts on other websites from people who have been moved by this film to come forward and talk about their own experiences–a loving relationship that they had secretly shared with another man which never worked out due to the harshness of a homophobic society. I’ve talked to other people who have told me that it touched them in different ways. In fact, the audience that I saw the film with appeared to be older couples. King Kong may make more money but will it move anyone…mean anything to anyone?
    Roger Ebert has makes a wise statment in his review for BBM. He says, “Brokeback Mountain” could tell its story and not necessarily be a great movie. It could be a melodrama. It could be a “gay cowboy movie.” But the filmmakers have focused so intently and with such feeling on Jack and Ennis that the movie is as observant as work by Bergman. Strange but true: The more specific a film is, the more universal, because the more it understands individual characters, the more it applies to everyone. I can imagine someone weeping at this film, identifying with it, because he always wanted to stay in the Marines, or be an artist or a cabinetmaker.”
    So here is the truth-the truth that will be hard for all of the straight people who seem to want to bring this movie down–who are soooo threatened by it…no matter how it drops, rises, wins or awards, loses awards…the movie is already a success. And it becomes more successful with every bit of energy you spend trying to bring it down.

  97. waterbucket says:

    When someone told me of the Hot Blog, he said that it’s all about The Gay People vs. David Poland and his die-hard fans, I thought he was kidding.
    Now I’m glad I signed up because you guys have not disappointed. Brokeback sure got you good!

  98. Hopscotch says:

    There are people threatened by this movie, and feel uncomfortable seeing and/or having it discussed in their ear shot. Most of them are men. And I think women all over this country want to see this film. In cities and in suburbs.
    BBM will outgross “The Alamo”. I get so giddy just typing that.

  99. LesterFreed says:

    Who is threatened by this film? I’m a straight fella and I just don’t want to see it. Does that make me a homophobe? Am I scared of gay people now? Don’t think so.

  100. Terence D says:

    It was just a matter of time before the BBM defenders brought out the “Straight Men feel threatened by homosexuals” argument. No one is rooting against it. I don’t think people care that much when it comes down to it. You seem to have a lot on the line if you are so far in it’s corner, David V.
    Are you going to accept it when it doesn’t make 100$ million or are you going to attack straight men for not giving it a chance? And blame homophobes for its failure to reach a wide audience?
    I don’t know what planet you’re from but how in the world did you expect average males to see this movie? You think the audience that pays to see a movie like “Doom” is dying to see BBM? You need to get a little perspective. Because it’s not happening.

  101. Hopscotch says:

    I’m not saying everyone is Lester. But the Larry David article, plus another other one I read on msnbc.com by Dave White, poke fun that there are some who are threatened or very nervous about liking this movie or at least seeing it.
    The same thing happens with romantic comedies that are typically female fare, I think many guys are ashamed to admit they like Sleepless in Seattle…but they do.

  102. bicycle bob says:

    im beginning to think about actively rooting against brokeback when it opens up wide just for the laughs. it’ll be fun when i come back here and get called a bigot when i laugh about its 40 million buck take and laugh at the people who are raving about per screen averages. and people say its not a movement/cause. u gotta be kidding me.

  103. palmtree says:

    I’m straight and I fell in love many times in this movie. No, not with the boys. With the women…Michelle Williams, Anne Hathaway, Linda Cardellini, etc. All very strong supporting performances. That’s the thing with this movie: you think going in it’s only about one thing but it has multifaceted offerings.

  104. Bruce says:

    Not one BBM defender has talked about what they like about the movie let alone love about it. I’m expecting to hear about how much you love Ledger’s performance, or how much you think Michelle Williams was great, or how much you love Ang Lee’s work, or maybe the score, or maybe the way it’s shot, or maybe how you were taken to a different time and place and fell in love with. Anything!
    Yet all I get is PSA and how if you talk bad about it you are a homophobe. Classy. It’s like you haven’t even seen it but will defend it at all costs. Screams…Agenda!

  105. palmtree says:

    Bruce, I just did (probably didn’t see it because it was posted right before yours). Like you, I hope for more.

  106. Bruce says:

    I’ll even tell you what I liked. Ledger was a find in the lead role. A great performance. He is sure to be an Oscar contender.

  107. palmtree says:

    Agreed. His talent has been a crouching tiger. Even in Brothers Grimm, he sold me on his skills (Damon looks like he phoned it in on Harvey’s orders). Funny that another Ledger film just came out where he plays an uber-straight guy.

  108. James Leer says:

    Many people have posted their thoughts on BBM in this and other threads. Sadly, the talkbacks here as a whole have been trending away from reviews, getting mired in politics and box office. I was shocked by how few people discussed the merits of “Munich,” especially considering all that was said about it before the movie came out. And it’s unfortunate that both movies have to be pitted against each other so soon instead of allowing each to enjoy at least a short-lived honeymoon of avid film talk.

  109. Wayman_Wong says:

    Bruce, since this entry is called ”Weekend Estimates,” the focus has been on how it’s doing financially. That’s why we’re not critiquing performances, the score, Ang Lee’s direction, etc., here. All of that is subjective, anyway. And for those really interested in those aspects, there are ”Brokeback” fan sites devoted to the various actors, viewers’ favorite moments, the reviews and, yes, the box office.
    Since this is a column devoted to box office, it seems natural to discuss PSA as a factor in judging whether a movie is doing well, or not. People who don’t like ”Brokeback” aren’t necessarily homophobes, any more than people who like the movie must be gay or have a gay agenda. If it seems to you that are people are who defending ”Brokeback” who haven’t even seen it, I can only add that I feel the opposite: Some of the people who are attacking it, haven’t seen it, and probably never will.

  110. Bruce says:

    Wayman Wong,
    Maybe you should let it breath and open up nationally before you proclaim it a success.
    Just a thought.
    I never thought a movie that will probably struggle to get to 50 million would be deemed a huge success before it even opened up wide.

  111. Bruce says:

    You still haven’t said why you love the movie, Wayman Wong. Makes me realize you either haven’t seen it or you have an agenda on it.
    Is it so hard to say what you love about the film? Using the excuse of this is the wrong thread for it is pretty weak.

  112. Josh says:

    How do you expect them to name what they love when most of them didn’t even see it or if they did, didn’t like it?
    But they love the message and the fact that is a gay love story. That’s what they love about it.

  113. Wayman_Wong says:

    Bruce, if you’d been reading my earlier post in this thread, you’d know I already wrote that I’ve seen ”Brokeback” three times. I don’t owe you any review, but for the record: Diana Ossana and Larry McMurtry did a beautiful job of adapting Annie Proulx’s heartbreaking story; Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal give career performances; the cinematography is breathtaking, and Ang Lee’s direction is sensitive at every turn. … I’d be willing to let this film ”breathe,” if some pundits weren’t already declaring this film a victim of ”burnout” and downplaying its business.
    So is $50 million in wider release your gauge of ”success”? If ”Brokeback” makes it there, would you be willing to acknowledge that it’s done better than anyone had a right to expect?

  114. Josh says:

    Don’t you know it’s a huge hit? High theatre average is the new standard and it just kills it.
    BBM will beat out Stars Wars.

  115. Terence D says:

    If people are intent on believing that BBM is a success regardless of what it does when it opens wide, there is nothing you can sway that will change their minds. Reason is out the window.

  116. Rufus Masters says:

    Focus couldn’t ask better buzz right now. Their strategy seems to be working right now. I am really interested in seeing how it does nationally and not just in select theatres.

  117. PandaBear says:

    All this talk about how “Brokeback” is success is like saying a 2-0 football team is a Super Bowl power. Relax. It’s the opening innings. Many things can happen.

  118. Angelus21 says:

    I’d say the word “Premature” right now but I’m afraid that someone would call me a homophobe who is preoccupied with my penis and sex. I’m staying out.

  119. thelma says:

    Once again, for the cheap seats at the back…
    Nobody (as long as I know) have been saying anything more than “BBM is a success in limited release”. Get it? LIMITED RELEASE. Ok. Now, It may have a chance to cross over. Nobody knows if It will, or not, except some people here that are completely sure. I think they need mediums at the circus, folks.
    It

  120. Mark Ziegler says:

    Don’t speak for everyone, Thelma. I’ve read some on this thread that are saying it is a success. And are not as reasonable as yourself.
    Can we all agree on the fact that it’s doing well in limited release and the real test will be after two weeks in national release?

  121. Wayman_Wong says:

    Just to add to what Thelma says: No one has really said anything other than: ”Brokeback” is doing pretty well in limited release. No one has ever claimed it’s the next ”Titanic” or ”Star Wars.” That’s idiotic. So why is the limited release important? Because if it were bombing, it wouldn’t GET a wider release. If it were bombing, pundits would be writing off ”Brokeback” as a giant flop. ”See? No one wants to see a gay love story.” Nobody would be saying: ”Gee, just wait until it’s in wider release; we don’t know if it’s really a flop until it’s on 2,000 screens.” Maybe ”Brokeback” will cross over; maybe it won’t. But the signs so far are encouraging.

  122. Telemachos says:

    Any film that grosses over its budget domestically can be considered a success. How far past its budget determines whether it’s a modest success or a huge one. I’d argue that relatively speaking, a film that grosses more than 3x its budget (or so) has to be considered a major success, financially speaking.
    BMM will never be a huge box-office smash compared to the big blockbuster juggernauts. But if it hits $50 million I can’t see how anyone rational (without a major bone to pick) could consider anything less than a huge success, given its subject matter and the studio that released it. MILLION DOLLAR BABY is a gigantic success, by comparison — though M$B had “bigger names” associated with it and a major studio at its back.

  123. Geoff says:

    Wow, there have been like over 300 posts on Brokeback Mountain, crazy debate going on!
    What I cannot believe is that nobody, myself included, has really mentioned a key factor to evaluating BBM’s success. And Dave, of all people with his awareness of box office history, should have brought it up as much as anybody.
    Here’s the thing:
    ROMANCES do not usually do well at the box office, straight or otherwise. You name me the last romantic drama that made over $100 million at the domestic box office? Seriously, it’s been a while.
    I’m talking about films that flaunt serious hetereosexual romance like nobody’s business – The English Patient, Cold Mountain, The Terminal, you name it. Even with budgets several times that of BBM’s, awards presense, and the full court press from studio’s like Miramax, none of these films could do blockbuster business.
    Hell think of even the more accessible romantic comedies. Sure you got your Hitch’s, Mr. and Mrs. Smith’s, and My Big Fat Greek WEddings, but those type of hits barely occur once a year and almost always have to be marketed on multiple fronts (Hitch as a buddy comedy, Mr. and Mrs. Smith as an action film, etc.) to do true four quadrant business.
    Romances just do not do reliable business, at all, so what you guys REALLY have to ask yourself is what kind of yardsticks are you using to measure the success of Brokeback Mountain?
    I mean, when easy-to-sell straight romantic comedies like Must Love Dogs or Love Actually can barely crack $50 million, then what can we reasonably expect from Brokeback Mountain?
    If you recast and reconfigured Brokeback Mountain as a straight romantic drama starring Gwyneth Paltrow and Matt Damon, and kept the same tone, settings, everything else, can any of you really see this film doing much greater business?
    I know some of you are going to start going on about how this film has some level of singular hype behind it, but come on. So did films like Sideways and Closer. The fact is, EVERY year, there are smaller films like BBM that get killer media buzz.
    Think about it.

  124. thelma says:

    Mark, if they say it

  125. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Variety posted a very sobering estimate late last week: ’05 will be off 10 percent in tickets sold/5 percent in dollar volume compared to ’04.
    From what I’ve read ’06 will be the same as ’05 — franchises, remakes, sequels and little else. If ’06 turns out like ’05 there will be some hard questions to ask of Hollywood.
    “Syriana” underperforming? Not with the upmarket crowd. Its New York-area bookings include the Angelika, BAM Rose Cinemas, Montgomery Cinema (near Princeton) and UA East Hampton. All of those theaters played it for a full round of shows over Xmas/New Year’s. Most mainstream theaters that still have “Syriana” are playing it only at night.
    As for those who care to see a certain movie again and again? DVD fills that role now.

  126. palmtree says:

    One final note on Brokeback…it’s been making most of its money without very much P&A costs. When it expands, that’ll change, but the box office at the moment comes from a very low overhead.

  127. joefitz84 says:

    No matter what Brokeback does at the box office and the awards desk the same people will be spinning it’s a success. They’ll have a story for any scenario. Who cares? Forgive me for not spending too much time on a movie about gay cowboys who love and lose and can’t get along in life because they miss their other half. A cowboy movie without even a few gunfights? Talk about a hard sell.
    It’s going to get the same paying public that eveyrone assumed it would get. No 18 year old boy is going to go with his friends to see this.

  128. Angelus21 says:

    By some of the logic on this thread, Syriana is a huge success already. Blockbuster.
    Not many young men want to see romance movies let alone romance movies involving two gay guys. It’s obviously going to effect the box office take.

  129. Sanchez says:

    HOLD IT! Everyone hold up.
    Wait a second here and let me catch up.
    DP saw this movie SIX times????
    What???
    That’s twice a week for 3 weeks. WOW. The Brokeback Blog is in full effect now.
    Anything less than 60$ million at this point would be a failure for BBM. With all the reviews and all the awards and all the buzz and all the people behind it, it has to get to that number.

  130. Stella's Boy says:

    I would say over $40 million for a $14 million movie about the love affair between two cowboys is a huge success.

  131. Sanchez says:

    40 for a movie with all it has going for it right now seems very low. 40 would be the low point for me.
    I think it has a shot to hit 60. I assume Focus has the same aspirations.

  132. Telemachos says:

    “By some of the logic on this thread, Syriana is a huge success already. Blockbuster.”
    It’s certainly not a huge success, nor a blockbuster (duh), given that it hasn’t even made its budget back domestically. However, it’s hanging in there and while I don’t think it has enough *oomph* to be a solid success ($80-100+ million) it will respectably cover its costs.

  133. palmtree says:

    Syriana was made for $50 m, three times the cost of Brokeback. That would make Syriana not a blockbuster…even by this blog’s standards. But more importantly, Syriana isn’t building Oscar steam as much as the other Clooney project. Critics have not been unanimous for Syriana and it looks to get writing nods mostly.

  134. Geoff says:

    I just saw 40 Year Old Virgin.
    “You know how YOU’re gay?”
    “You’ve seen Brokeback Mountain six times.”
    Sorry, Dave, couldn’t pass it up:)

  135. palmtree says:

    Let me clarify: a $38 million gross for Syriana thus far is not blockbuster because it cost $50 million to make. That means it is still not close to profit zone.

  136. knowitall says:

    I know this has been said before, but just so it’s heard. PLEASE. People, do NOT quote ROGER FRIEDMAN. He’s a NO- TALENT HACK in Harvey Weinstein’s ass pocket. Anyone that reads him twice knows he doesn’t know what he’s talkign about. He’s a larva soaked little wormy thing that slithers around parties and kisses ass for a living. Not a journalist. He’s a cartoon character.
    Don’t use him to bolster arguments. It hurts you. Doesn’t help. Someone needs to talk to Roger Ailes face to face. He embarrasses FOX and that’s hard to do.

  137. Jim says:

    “Not one BBM defender has talked about what they like about the movie let alone love about it.”
    And how many people who constantly talk about BBM’s failure discuss what they disliked about the movie?
    I don’t think BBM was perfect. Or even close. I would have appreciated more development of Jack and Ennis’ relationship. Not sexually, emotionally. I don’t think Jake or Anne Hathaway were quite up to their roles.
    Overall, the theme and atmosphere of the film are what swept me away. It’s the first time in quite a few years I actually got swept up in a movie and forgot I was just watching fictional characters. The work from Michelle Williams is first-rate, and Ledger gives a bravura performance in what is an unplayable role.
    “No 18 year old boy is going to go with his friends to see this.”
    Most 18 year old boys don’t go to movies anyway. The directors or executives who count on this audience are fooling themselves.

  138. esther_rolle says:

    face it folks, BBM is (and will always be) a beloved film among a small but growing segment of the public. it’s groundbreaking and tells a story that many people have been THIRSTING for for a very long time. there is nothing you can say that will take that away and that alone, money and awards aside, makes this film a spectacular success. don’t believe me? go check out the crazy imdb boards. and Mr. Poland, how many more hits has this site received since you started criticizing BBM? when did threads at this blog previously reach 150 posts? how many new people have signed up to just express their opinion on this film? do you honestly think this interest is because of some “gay lobby” or agenda? because of some “orgasmic” media hype? please — it’s defended so strongly because people do love it.
    and whoever asked what 18 male is going to want to see BBM? who cares? gosh, can’t we all at least agree that we’re tired of movies made for 18 year old males? (by the way, i think you’d be surprised about just how many 18 year old males are interested in seeing this film (and many probaly won’t given prevailing cultural attitude that it is not acceptable for 18 males to see this film).

  139. David Poland says:

    As amusing as all this is, repeating the same crap is getting rather boring.
    Wayman… you want to know who is saying crazy stuff? Apparently you are skipping posts. Esther_Rolle is having a good time spinning like a wild dead woman.
    If you don’t like the film, you are homophobic or scared of gay people. And since I HAVEN’T been bashing the movie, just asking for perspective, I don’t know if more people are reading the blog. But since you are obviously a newbie, I will restrain the well deserved, “Fuck you” and just ask that you get some idea of my history before you start attacking me.
    I do this for the discussion, not the page views. I am not shy of page views. But in this thread, I seem to have a few people shy of rationale or perspective.
    I have never said anything about a “gay lobby” except to mock the phrase and I have never suggested that BBM is doing anything other than terrific in limited release. The problem is when writers overreach. And if you can’t see it, you are in denial or not paying attention. Sorry.
    And the reason I keep watching the film (which I first saw in September) is a) people want to see it and I have a DVD and b) I keep hoping to have a moment where I see something I’ve missed.
    Sorry if the fact that I have not heard a rave about this movie since the week it opened is upsetting. But it is the truth. And frankly, it keeps surprising me. I am very comfortable hearing friends disagree with me about movies. But in this case, I often end up defending parts of the movie I do like when others do not. And again, gay and straight, industry and not. Would you prefer I lie about it or just shut up? (Rhetorical question.)
    Anyway… I’ll keep speaking up when I feel it is called for. And I will expect the rabid to attack based on anything less than total agreement.
    Wayman, you are amongst the sane ones… but you also cross that line sometimes. People should read a New Yorker article from a few weeks about a Democratic Party decision to back a Senate candidate in PA because he was their best hope to beat Santorum… even though he was pro-life. Same situation.

  140. Wayman_Wong says:

    David, you’re a bright guy. I’ve read your bio. You’ve written for many fine publications. And I’ve covered and edited entertainment for various newspapers myself. I think I have a pretty good idea of how this works. I’m not asking you to love ”Brokeback.” Intelligent people can disagree about whether a movie is good or bad. That’s not at issue. And neither is whether you’ve seen the movie 6 times or 60 times. In all of my various posts, I’ve never accused you or anyone of being homophobic or scared of gays.
    I’m asking for the same thing you’re asking for: perspective. At the risk of sounding repetitive, ”Brokeback” is a $14 million indie movie about two guys in love. It’s made over $15 million in limited release so far, despite the fact that it’s R-rated, despite the fact that it’s not a family movie (which cuts out a lot of moviegoers), despite the fact that the subject matter might be a turnoff to various people. However, it’s ingenuous to say ”I have never suggested BBM is doing anything other than terrific in limited release.” Not when you write ”How Brokeback might fall back” in only its 3rd week of release and call its spot in the top-10 box-office one week ”a slight obsfucation.”
    I’m not in denial and I’ve been paying attention. There’s a lot of ”crazy stuff” and it’s coming from both sides. Just as some people accuse the pro-BBM defenders of pushing an ”agenda,” I would argue that some of the anti-BBM folks are just as unrelenting in their cynicism. I’m as tired of this as you are. And geez, Oscar Night is still two months away (!). To your credit, you allow a forum that offers give-and-take. We might not see eye-to-eye on a lot of things, but when we do, I’ll be the first one to say so.

  141. jeffmcm says:

    No matter how much Narnia makes (250? 300?) or how little Brokeback makes (20? 25?)…
    Brokeback Mountain is still a better movie, qualitatively, than Narnia. Regardless of how many people see it or how well-rewarded the filmmakers are.

  142. Crow T Robot says:

    I just might have to see Serenity six times now. If it doesn’t improve the film for me, at least it could improve my hate. Funny how that works.

  143. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    wow, i so lost track of this thread.
    And, as other have mentioned, if there is a movie that adults want to see they will see it. Something such as BBM is slowly becoming a “must see” of non-gay and non-movie obsessives types.

  144. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    and also:
    “I mean, when easy-to-sell straight romantic comedies like Must Love Dogs or Love Actually can barely crack $50 million, then what can we reasonably expect from Brokeback Mountain?”
    They weren’t seen as zeitgeist academy award baiting films? Although they tried with Love Actually it failed.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
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Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
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The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
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NOTA 71,300 138
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Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
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The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4