MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?

BAFTA missed Munich

Be Sociable, Share!

13 Responses to “Which Award Show Is The Best Predictor Of Them All?”

  1. Sam says:

    Looks like you’ve already done the work to answer your own question. But how do these organizations hold up over the past few years?
    It looks like the best Oscar predictor of the past continues to be. The DGA matched all five Best Picture nominees once again, for the fourth year running.

  2. Josh says:

    Basically, it’s a total crapshoot.

  3. EDouglas says:

    The guilds seem to be the closest right now… isn’t it 5/5 for both Directors and Producers guild?

  4. Bruce says:

    The guilds are the best.

  5. Hopscotch says:

    I’ve been telling friends for the last two years that the BFCA are the closest I’ve seen to reflect the winners. The Guilds are just about as close, but they’ve been off on different years.

  6. Sam says:

    No, the Producers Guild had “Walk the Line” in place of “Munich.” Still, 4/5 isn’t bad for the PGA, which is often 3/5.
    My guess is the SAG’s got the winners for all four acting categories right, but for the noms themselves it only had a perfect score for Supporting Actress (4/5 on the other three). The WGA got 8/10 (Syriana placing in different categories makes 9/10 the best it could have done).

  7. Goulet says:

    Who gives a crap? Seriously, what’s the point of giving out awards if you don’t even vote for your favorites but for who you think will make it at the Oscars?
    At least I’m pretty sure the HFPA actually likes the movies it votes for. BFCA are just playing the prediction game, hoping to be perceived as having influence than raking in the attention/money. Pathetic.

  8. chmoye says:

    You didn’t mention that the BFCA got all five Best Pictures by using 10 nomination slots. I could have done that myself. 😉

  9. David Poland says:

    HFPA had 10… and missed 2.
    Snf no, Goulet… HFPA is teh most political of the groups, except for member preferences by some of the guilds.

  10. Mackygee says:

    Doesn’t the fact that BAFTA left off MUNICH have to do with release dates in Britain? Wouldn’t it be theoretically nominatable next year?
    (Or am I correctly remembering there was some foul-up in getting
    dvds to the nominating committee over there? God knows, there were enough snafus involved with the way MUNICH has been released and marketed.)

  11. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    WAY TO GO BROADCAST FILM CRITICS!!!!! How many more years of bragging rights does this give your pathetic institution. John Leguizamo sure was right.
    Sorry, but holy fuck.
    Can we also acknowledge that the Hollywood Foreign Press were pretty much the only organisation that thought for itself. BBM, GN&GL, Constant Gardener, Match Point and History of Violence – was never gonna happen with AMPAS, and now that the noms are out it’s making me appreciate the globes all the more.

  12. bipedalist says:

    It’s rather sad that you have to pat yourself and your critics group on the back continually because, for once, you/it got the one movie other people expected would have dropped off (and maybe you should open your stubborn heart to reasons why instead of continually stating, they just don’t get it – why don’t they get it? because they’re not Spielberg apologists. Scorsese apologists, yes, but Spielberg could have done MUCH better). SO FUCKING WHAT? Get over yourself. It’s unbecoming.

  13. LesterFreed says:

    Why not relax with your angry spew, bipedal. We get it already.
    The Hollywood Foreign Press also had 2 different categories. Comedy and Drama to put films into.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon