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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Friday Estimates – 4/8/06

Ice Age: Meltdown is pretty much in the expected trajectory. And so is The Benchwarmers.
This is where it gets frustrating for film critics. This film could open to $20 million, despite features smacking it around, followed by no reviews, followed by scathing reviews. The irony is that even a tough critic like Manohla Dargis gave the film a fairly negative review

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31 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates – 4/8/06”

  1. James Leer says:

    “But Sony didn

  2. David Poland says:

    Well, since you are pushing the issue… in 2005, which had the second highest number of $20 million openings ever, after only 2004’s 47, four studios had more than four $20 million openings. Fox had seven, Universal had six, and both WB and Disney had five each… for the year.
    No studio has ever had more than three $20 million openers this early in the year… and that was only done once before… by Sony.
    And by the way, Bewitched was one of Sony’s $20 million openers last year… along with Hitch, Guess Who, and The Exorcism of Emily Rose.

  3. EDouglas says:

    Weren’t most of Sony’s big hits last year in this same time frame (Jan – April) and then the rest of the year stank? (Okay, Fun with Dick and Jane opened low, but it had great legs.) At least this year, they have plenty of sure fire hits… Da Vinci Code (which I think will end up one of the top movies of the year) and Casino Royale… oh, and Grudge 2 should do well in the fall for them, too.
    Wow, Sunshine and Little Miss Sunshine both in the same year… that could be confusing.

  4. EDouglas says:

    oh, right… Bewitched and Exorcism were later… I was thinking of Are We There Yet? but that only made 18 million.

  5. martin says:

    Does this mean Rob Schneider is A-list again?

  6. Eddie says:

    I actually had the tiniest faint of hope for Benchwarmers, cause Dennis Dugan did the two ‘best’ Sandler movies, as well as Brain Donors which is forever underrated.
    Thank goodness I came to my senses before paying for a ticket.

  7. jeffmcm says:

    When was Rob Schneider a-list?

  8. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Well there was that brief period where people thought he was popular. blech.
    I wonder how much of this opening can be put on Jon Heder’s shoulders. It is blatantly obvious to anyone who has seen the trailer that he is riffing off of Napoleon Dynamite 100%. I’m surprised they didn’t give him curly hair too.

  9. soconnell33 says:

    What was the PHAT GIRLZ campaign? No one I know had any idea what this movie was. Did they only target Los Angeles, because those of us in the “sticks” never even saw a commercial for this movie.

  10. Joe Leydon says:

    I’m a little surprised — and, yes, a little disappointed — to see how “Slither” has totally tanked. What happened? Any theories?

  11. Nicol D says:

    Slither deserved to be a modest hit…but I think the horror genre right now is not in the mood for comedy.
    It seems to be in a more serious or slasher mode.
    The Horror genre tends to go in cycles and this one had a slight ’80’s/Tremors feel to it.
    Creature features do not tend to be ‘in’ now. The mode tends to be more grisly violence of a more ‘realistic’ tone with plenty of torture of the human body (Hostel, TCM, Hills Have Eyes etc.)
    Slither will get a cult following on DVD and I am sure there will be sequel’s to follow.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    I think you got it Nicol. The youngsters who made Hostel and Hills Have Eyes and the TCM remake (among many others) hits have no interest in a horror/comedy. I don’t think they knew what to make of it, and I think most of them thought it looked really stupid. People want hard-core horror right now.

  13. djk813 says:

    I think you are selling Little Miss Sunshine short. It’s very mainstream and has a lot of the same things going for it that 40 Year Old Virgin did. It’s somewhat dark humor, but sweet at its core. Carell is part of an ensemble here instead of the lead, but this is also post Virgin Carell so he’s a bigger draw now, and the rest of the cast isn’t chopped liver. (None of them are draws, but they’re recognizable enough to make it seem like a “real” movie.) It’s also the funniest movie of the millennium. Anything short of $50M would be a disappointment in my mind.

  14. TheManWho says:

    It’s not even HARDCORE horrour, as much as it’s simply TORTUREGORE featuring middle class white folks being attacked time and time again. When a film like Slither comes along, that tries to have some comedy in the midst of an alien invasion enduced zombies and other stuff. Those into TORTUREGORE, either enjoy that part of the horrour film genre, or cannot wait to see what nubile young thing will get strung up by her toes later this year. Give me the funny and the gore over just the GORE any day of the week. However, there seems to be two horrour audiences now. One part of this audience loves the TORTUREGORE. While the other part remains a bit old school in terms of what they like in the genre, and comedy being one of those aspects they enjoy in-between people being eaten or split in half.

  15. jeffmcm says:

    Slither wasn’t helped by the fact that it was, merely okay and not quite great. And what about Final Destination 3, which was teen-oriented and gory, but also largely a comedy?

  16. Stella's Boy says:

    I think with FD3 the audience was already built in. People went in knowing exactly what they were going to get. I don’t think that was the case with Slither.

  17. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Slither” is a US-only pickup for Universal as part of an output deal with Gold Circle Films. That deal is how “White Noise” and “The Wedding Date” got their US release last year.

  18. TheManWho says:

    “merely okay and not quite great.” jeff, by using your own words, that would make Slither a good movie. Nothing wrong with being a good movie in comparison to the other schlock from the same genre this year. Nevertheless, jeff, thank you for the new criteria in regards to good. I am sure it will be a hit with the kids for years to come.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    Good and not great. I had higher expectations that were not met. I liked FD3 better, but Slither was better than Hills Have Eyes or Hostel or (shudder) When a Stranger Calls. It’s all relative. Is there something I’m missing here?

  20. TheManWho says:

    Expectations remain the stuff that keep the Native Americans, Tunic, and Las Vegas in business. I am missing, that you actually went and saw all of those bad horrour films. I think you deserve a bronzed twinkee or something. Congrats on this prestigous award.

  21. jeffmcm says:

    Who or what is Tunic?
    The only one of those movies that I would call definitively bad would be WASC; the rest were mediocre.

  22. jeffmcm says:

    Oh, and I skipped Stay Alive…not a glutton for punishment.

  23. TheManWho says:

    Jeff, I think your punishment started as soon as you saw “When A Stranger Calls.” That aside, TUNIC was supposed to be TUNICA, and Stay Alive at least had Sophia Bush starring in it. Nevertheless, your ability to handle that much crap, again, gains you a BRONZED TWINKEE!

  24. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “What was the PHAT GIRLZ campaign? No one I know had any idea what this movie was. Did they only target Los Angeles, because those of us in the “sticks” never even saw a commercial for this movie.”
    THat movie haunted me in my 36hours in LA. That horrendous poster was everywhere. I think I only saw it once in NY. I doubt it will ever see the light of day in Australia. “Barbershop” movies barely got released, and stuff like “Mad Black Woman” haven’t even gone straight-to-dvd. These movie targetted at african-american audiences rarely if ever make any form of money here.
    On the matter of “Slither” Horror/comedy RARELY ever is successful. Most people go to a horror movie for scares, not for laughs. Having said that, “Shaun of the Dead” and “Tremors” are great, so…

  25. jeffmcm says:

    Okay…who or what is Tunica? I guess I could Google it but I hate to go to the extra effort, you puzzler you.

  26. TheManWho says:

    Tunica is the LAS VEGAS of the Mid-South. It’s frakkin huge! You know, EXPECTATIONS are what keep the Native Americans (Thanks to the History Channel, I now know that an Indian Casino in Connecticut is the most successful in the country), Las Vegas, and TUNICA in business. See? It’s not confusing. Jeff, you lack, basic knowledge of fine gambling establishments and where they are located. However, this does not change, your status as the 2006 Bronzed Twinkee champion.

  27. MattM says:

    Tunica is now the #3 gambling center of America in terms of dollars passing through it. I’ve been there a few times (I lived in Memphis for four years, and visit Memphis about once a year). All of the squalor of Vegas and none of the glamour.

  28. jeffmcm says:

    Hey The Man Who, thanks for the update. Are you writing intending to be generally understood or is that a secondary or tertiary concern?

  29. frankbooth says:

    TheManWho seems somehow familiar to me. I think I’m having a flashback.

  30. James Leer says:

    He’s not Hickstown, if that’s what you’re inferring. I kind of like his lunatic punctuation and bizarre non sequiturs.

  31. jeffmcm says:

    He and I mixed it up last year over War of the Worlds. He’s a good guy generally.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon