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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday F-ing Estimates by Klady

Big Number.
Two things to keep in mind. 1) X3 did $35 million on its opening Friday and won

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34 Responses to “Friday F-ing Estimates by Klady”

  1. Eric N says:

    BoxOfficeMojo says it’s a million more…either way, that’s CRAZY!! It’s almost half way to Spider-Man’s record after one day!! The next two days are anyone’s guess.

  2. martindale says:

    Wow! Looks like Pirates will break the record. Only question is by how much. Will it earn over $130 mil this weekend given the frontloading?

  3. Spacesheik says:

    Shiver me timbers!
    Wow wow wow.
    At this rate what we looking at Poland? $130 minimum for the weekend????

  4. PastePotPete says:



    Is that a typo? My god.

  5. Tofu says:

    $100 million in two days?
    Biggest three day?
    Equal to Superman’s 11 day cume in 3 days?
    This is exciting.

  6. martin says:

    In it’s own way it’s sort of the Titanic of openings, this is bigger number than many thought possible particularly with talk of DVD/internet/tv/Ipod, etc. Clearly theatrical still has records to break and audiences are happy to show up if the movie is right.

  7. Tofu says:

    Now just imagine if the movie wasn’t 150 minutes, but instead 95 minutes, packing in even more showtimes and killing off the overflow AND those turned away last night.
    Of course, some of the appeal is that Pirates IS 150 minutes, giving audiences time to sink their teeth in.
    Unlike Sith, Pirates had a good deal of theaters, and average nearly the same per screen. We have still yet to see the ceiling for opening day.

  8. Josh Massey says:

    The stay at the top for “Aquaman” might have been short lived.

  9. Jimmy the Gent says:

    Josh,
    Does that mean those 30 seats would stay empty, or would you sell ’em people still asked for that show?
    Interesting.
    Is there such a thing as a full capacity showing?

  10. EDouglas says:

    What amazes me most about the number is that it made more by itself on Friday than the Top 10 combined has made in quite some time… and yet, Superman, Prada, Cars and Click still brought in around 18 million in business, which will translate into around $55 million in three days. That’s a lot of money and a lot of people going to the movies despite it being summer, beach weather, etc… It’s a beautiful day in NYC today and I doubt too many people will want to spend it in theatres.

  11. Jimmy the Gent says:

    EDouglas,
    You live in New York? I’m visiting some friends next weekend. I’m also hoping to see a movie in New York. Have seen any of the Wilder movies at the Film Forum? I’m excited because next weekend they’ll be showing Ace in the Hole. I’ve never seen it. I can’t believe it’s still not on video. I’m excited to see it on a big screen. I’m also thinking about seeing Psycho at the BAM Rose Cinema.

  12. the keoki says:

    I would love to see a live feed of what’s going on in th Warner offices…….they’re probably passing out the Kool Aid right about now. MMMMMMMM Kool aid.

  13. Joe Straat says:

    The grape Kool-Aid?

  14. palmtree says:

    Unlike Fellman, Viane didn’t say what he expected the number to be. Smart man…probably had to restrain his own giddiness as he tried to answer that one.
    btw, what’s the breakdown? $8m at midnight and $47m during Friday night?

  15. qwiggles says:

    Oh my.

  16. Josh Massey says:

    Jimmy: No, the seats wouldn’t stay empty. We realized people would find ways to sneak in (after buying tickets for other movies), and we didn’t want to have angry ticketbuyers not be able to find a seat. That was the theory, at least – I was just a lowly high school-age usher, so I just followed orders.

  17. Geoff says:

    That really is a ridiculous number.
    I know a lot of pundits have been predicting a record weekend, but I honestly thought it would do around $90 million. $100 million openings really don’t grow on trees.
    As it stands now, there is now way this film avoids a dropoff on Saturday or a 50 plus drop in its second weekend, I don’t care how good word of mouth is.
    A lot of people are going to be jumping all over themselves, now, saying this will break $400 million or even that it has a shot at Titanic. But I just don’t see it. I’m guessing it will do around Sith or Spiderman 2 numbers, still pretty rarified territory that will make Disney happy.
    However, I wonder if Disney is now kicking themselves for not slotting Pirates 3 in their Narnia slot for this Christmas. If you look at the release schedule, there really is not big, broad-based family film coming out around Christmas, except maybe Charlotte’s Web. I know that action does not usually hit big at this time of year, but Disney and Bruck sure proved everybody wrong, a couple of years back with National Treasure.
    I would think the potential grosses in that time period would be much higher than next May, following weeks of Shrek and Superman.
    Anybody think Disney could do this? Is it too late, at this point?

  18. Geoff says:

    In my last message, I meant weeks in May of 2007 of Shrek and SPIDERman.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    Are there any numbers for Scanner? I guess it’s not in the top ten.

  20. MattM says:

    Pirates 3 was supposed to be a Christmas release, but because of production delays, it got set to next summer, and that number for Scanner Darkly isn’t anything CLOSE to a disappointment. It’s going to have a 20K PSA, which is pretty darn good, and is about the roof for an arthouse flick that tends to have maybe 2 prints per location. In contrast, Pirates is probably averaging 3-4 prints per location.

  21. Stella's Boy says:

    According to boxofficemojo Scanner made $134,000 on Friday in 17 theaters.

  22. MattM says:

    Mojo has Scanner at 134K for Friday at 17 locations. PSA of 7,882. Another interesting PSA tidbit? Though Supes is 2M ahead of Prada in gross on Friday, the PSA’s are only $45 apart (Supes in the lead).

  23. ployp says:

    I feel so bad for Superman. Will it get its money back after DVD sales? How does it work? I just know that about 60% of theater revenue goes to the studios.

  24. Telemachos says:

    PIRATES was everything SUPERMAN should have been.
    Number-wise, I think $18-120 is about as low as PIRATES can get this weekend. That’s with around a 20% drop on Saturday and a 35% drop on Sunday. I think 10-15% and 25-30% are closer to what the drops will be.
    Even with a 50% drop next weekend, PIRATES would still have a $60 million weekend — or, putting it another way, PIRATES’ second weekend will be bigger than Supe’s first.

  25. Aladdin Sane says:

    That’s pretty impressive. People really do love their Pirates!

  26. Lota says:

    impressive
    i wonder what Strangers with Candy did. It’s only in a few locations as well, like Scanner. The opening prison montage sequence is hilarious.

  27. MattM says:

    Strangers had a 21K PSA last weekend on 2 screens, New York only. Amy Sedaris is BIG in NYC, but I don’t know about her audience elsewhere.
    Another interesting question–for Dupree and Little Man plus the expansions, you’re looking at 5,500 screens that need to get freed up next weekend. Where do they come from? Click probably gives up about 1,000 screens, and Cars loses 800-1,000, with Garfield losing about 1,000, but I think Superman is going to take a hit on screen count next weekend unless there was a multi-week lockup.

  28. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Palmtree, word is POTC made $12mil in Midnight showings, which is itself a record.
    It looks like it will beat Revenge of the Sith‘s opening three days, and will definitely beat Spiderman Fri-Sun record.
    This is gonna be huge. Imaging if it made $100mil in 2 days (inc. midnight screenings of course)? That’d be phenomenal.

  29. palmtree says:

    Thanks!

  30. DailyRich says:

    ShowBizData has Pirates at $41.8 million for Saturday, with a two-day of $96.6 million. Didn’t hit the $100 million mark in two days, but Spidey is definitely going down.

  31. Josh Massey says:

    MCN has the whole weekend at $132.9.
    Dayum.

  32. Chucky in Jersey says:

    That huge Friday turnout for “Pirates 2” hurt the Saturday take.
    Last night an AMC megaplex in my area sold out 2 shows of “Pirates 2”, 1 show of “Superman Returns” and 1 show of “The Devil Wears Prada”. The people seeing Superman wanted to avoid the opening-weekend crush on that movie. The people seeing “Prada” have no interest in franchises and sequels.

  33. EDouglas says:

    Oh, man… did anyone catch Nikki Finke’s “Yay, me, I’m right!” coverage of Pirates’ opening weekend? Just in case anyone missed her earlier tracking posts declaring Pirates to have the biggest opening ( anyone with a half a brain could have figured out it was going to be huge, though maybe not *that* big…. even David knew it was going to be big ), she reposted on her blog a link to every single one of her earlier post about how the movie was tracking. Wow, I bet Kreskin is shaking in his boots.

  34. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    She’s wise!

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon