April 25, 2024
Box Office
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Buena Vista’s going to have a great 3-day next weekend. $100 million for Dead Man’s Chest plus Cars will cross the $200 million mark. Dancing in the streets in Burbank.
Is this the Friday-Tuesday 5-day estimate?
Yes. I’m surprised they have it.
Wow.
Cars doesn;t deserve it, but…
Prada’s done well. Maybe I will see it.
The Break-Up is still doing surprisingly well. Why?
DP – first time in 5 years that not a single film has crossed the $250M mark. Usually the type of BO arcana you comment on….
I’m about to write a commentary to go with Box Office Mojo’s estimates… I’ll write something on that there, Roy.
I think Cars, Da Vinci and X-Men 3 were all expected to do $200 million plus… the question is whether Superman can pull it off having crossed $100 million in 7 day. After Pirates opens, there’s certainly a good two months for it to bring in repeat business or anyone who hesitated seeing it over the long weekend. I think Superman will get to $200 million by around July 20…. and we’ll see if it has any more air when those four genre-type movies open on the 21st.
Does anybody believe a “Superman” sequel is in danger of not happening?
“The Break-Up” is still doing well because this conversation is happening all over the country:
Girl: “I want to go to a movie. Either ‘The Lake House,’ ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ or ‘The Break-Up.'”
For most guys, “The Break-Up” is still the easiest pill to swallow.
I think Superman Returns will do only about $200, maybe $250 million worldwide tops. I feel about the same level of anticipation here in England for it as X-Men and nowhere near the anticipation that Pirates or Spiderman generated. Superman seems like too much of a museum piece if you don’t have the history of Americana to tap into, and Warners have had the difficulty of trying to carve out a niche for itself and WoM on this side of the world when competeing with a far more attractive pre-sold property (Pirates) and the biggest global sporting event. As much as I admire Singer, I think this will increasingly be seen as a damp squid this year (despite what it makes in grosses).
On the other hand, I am pleased that Prada has done well, if for no other reason then it means millions of people will once again appreciate the divine talents of Meryl and Stanley
I doubt a Superman sequel is in danger, but I would bet dollars to donuts that if it is done by Singer, he’ll be doing a different concept…more action like X2, while keeping the heart intact…and hopefully, a little more trim.
I hope you mean ‘trimming’, but I’m sure the audience would appreciate the other kind as well.
Any kind of trim is good.
Now that Germany is (sadly) out of the World Cup we can expect a bit more normality in the int’l boxoffice. The last three WC teams, France, Portugal and Italy, aren’t exactly the box-office gold standard. Both Warners and BVI are probably happy to see this.
I think we need to be a little bit more patient with Superman before we call it a flop — it did gross 100 million in 6 days. the first pirates grossed roughly 50 million in its first weekend and went on to gross more than 300 million. There is such a thing, rare I know, of word of mouth happening. There is so much emphasis on the big opening weekend but with every record breaking opening weekend comes this hard fall the following weekend. I really don’t think it’s fair to guesstimate how Superman will do (I still think it will do really well) until the following weekends. There are still loads of people who want to see it in 3D but those shows are always sold out. Superman is a great and fun movie and it reminds me of how I felt as a kid watching a movie. It is not to be missed.
For perspective –
Superman Returns – 7 Day – est $106m (including $3 million from Tuesday night 10p shows, aka Day 8)
Pirates 1 – 7 day – $85.5 million
(keep in mind pirates had about 3000 fewer actual screens as well)
X-Men: The Last Stand – 7 days – $141 million
And if you want to get to the IMAX screening at Citywalk, you can still buy tix for the 5:40p show as of this moment.
True, it is brutal to be calling a movie that does $100 million-plus in a week “a flop.” But given the cost of the franchise, we are a long way from it clearly being anything but a flop. As I wrote, the ultimate determination is weeks away. It is now a given however, that U.S. theatrical returns will not cover the worldwide marketing costs of this film.
The good news for WB is that they laid off half the budget on Legendary. The bad news? X-Men 3 stopping at well under double opening week… without what is likely the biggest film of the summer coming up on its heels.
The difference between a $200 million movie and a $300 million movie is repeat business, and a large portion comes from teens and in the case of the first POTC, women. SR didn’t have what it takes to draw teens and women in by the droves, IMO.
I think the factor many people underestimated is that Superman, like Batman previously, was a dead franchise that needed to be resurrected. That means they should’ve released it early in the summer where there is no competition and hope the word is good enough to carry the film,
Superman Returns opened softly in Australia, with something just over $5mil, which would equal a $50mil opening in the states. X-Men 3 really died in Australia though, it opened big but didn’t even make $20mil.
I still say way to go Prada. Complete left field success. I wonder how much the fantastic trailer had to play in that?
(They’re making a Hulk sequel!)
Too bad Prada is kind of a blah movie…for me, anyway.
Do we know yet if this Hulk sequel is direct-to-video? I really want to see a Hulk movie with a big enough budget to allow him to really smash a lot of stuff.
Josh, there will be an SR sequel like Hulk has a sequel. Singer/WB have been working on a new deal for several weeks. WB wants something done by San Diego Comic Con, but the concessions Singer had on SR, (writers, final cut, final casting), are not possible. The odds of Singer signing off on something equal to his old X deal are small and mostly depends on other projects. If I had to bet, Horn will give a greenlight to Singer’s Logan’s Run, claim SR2 is in development with Bryan, then shutter his concept. The old “everyone saves face” ploy.
SR, again like Hulk, was expected to be a Spider-Man cash cow that could be penciled in for a decade on opposite years of Batman and another hopeful like Wonder Woman. Instead, you have another Hulk, POTA or Godzilla.
Whatever personal dislike I have for the final film, I never expected it to do this badly. Every estimate WB has targeted, they’ve missed. The hope of breaking even due to worldwide was never the goal. And as for week-to-week buildup, this ain’t that kind of movie. Batman Begins had low expectations, as did Pirates. The directors, while very good, were not coming off of Singer’s track record of cementing a same-genre franchise. If SR had a non-genre bankable director and internet-only buzz, you’d have something equal.
I think WB should be given somewhat of a pass on SR, because all the other talent who wanted in were scary. Bay would have only produced a good film if he had a decent script, (which he didn’t). The greatest irony, is when Shamalayan made a play for Superman, he was shot down by De Bonventura for pretty much what Horn gave to Singer.
Jeff, the Hulk sequel is pegged at about 125Mil, financed by Marvel, distributed via Paramount. I wouldn’t bank on it since Arad pulled that company split/production shingle last month.
The thing about SR, that Arad knows, is that’s it’s going to be hard to get greenlights for superhero flicks now, because when the biggest name on the block stalls, it looks as if the genre is on the slide. Marvel only has about 500Mil in capital to spend, and they’re becoming apparently gunshy about which character to back.
What wouldn’t you bank on?
I thought the new Hulk movie was going to be a remake, not a sequel… a “re-imagining”, as Avi Arad is putting it.
Aren’t these seven-day estimates?
The new Hulk will be called The Incredible Hulk, will be financed by Marvel and won’t star Eric Bana. I think that’s all there is right now.
Agreed with Martin here. If Singer was coming off of The Usual Suspects and was seen as a tricky project (with Batman Begins coming only 10 years or so after Batman & Robin) then this performance may have been fine, but it wasn’t so it isn’t.
btw, From Box Office Guru “The Prada audience was immensely female as studio research showed that a whopping 79% were women. Those over the age of 25 made up 61% of the crowd.”
I agree with Arrow77. Just purely based on personal experience, the stretch between X3 and Superman Returns was a looooong one for me moviewise, not being into Cars. I’m surprised there wasn’t the usual June horror movie to fill the hole.
I feel really sorry for Cars right now. I saw it last night and it seems pretty obvious that it’s an adult in a kids body. The film is all about lost nostalgia, appreciating the land and all that stuff, yet it’s gotten disappointing results because it’s about talking cars.
That movie seriously has the best animation I have ever seen. I was thinking it was a fun light movie, on par with A Bug’s Life but then there was the sequence where Owen Wilson and Bonnie Hunt’s characters went for the drive through the mountains and up to the deserted hotel and… holy moses. I know it was animated, but I don’t think I’ve seen anything that beautiful on the big screen in a long time.
Jeff – I wouldn’t bank on another Hulk film, theatrical at least. Marvel is in flux. Arad’s sidestep spooked the hell out of investors to the point it made conversation on Cavuto and CNBC. It’s one thing to get paper coverage, it’s another to be dressed down on cable financial.
Arad’s deal, as explained, makes little sense. He’s out of Marvel, but has control of Spidey, X, and Hulk for sure, plus one or two others. The answer given was so he could produce other, non-Marvel films, but no one will address his no-compete clause that says he cannot produce anything fantasy related that is non-Marvel. That can blanket any flick, so we’re supposed to believe he split because he couldn’t pass up producing Bratz.
IMO, someone wants to sell Marvel and someone is opposing. I’m not sure where Arad stands anymore on that issue, because he spent years trying to get FOX to buy them with stipulations. His leaving can signify either way; he’s for a sale, but since it ain’t happening he’s wasting his time, or he’s against it but one is being tendered and he thinks it’s has no upside for him as controlling force.
PastePotPete,
The Omen?
Could it be that the public is just bored with the movies coming out? Let’s face it, most of them (Click for ex) are nothing more than Made-for-TV movies with big name stars. Nothing innovative or creative coming our way. And the big-name stars aren’t generating a lot of buzz personality-wise. Where is the glamour in Hollywood? Plus, the whole super-hero genre is overdone. Sequel after sequel after sequel.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060702/media_nm/leisure_boxoffice_dc
“We are going to do about $110 million” in the first seven days, Fellman added. “This is a very big opening for us.”
Sorry, Mr. Poland, but it would appear that his comment is for the seven day, not five day. And he was close enough to it that I don’t think he’s lost face, even though he probably did expect it to exceed.
7 days… $106mil… that’s what I meant and what the numbers supported.
Sorry about the typo. Can’t believe you are the first to catch it.
But it is humiliating for him to come up short from his Sunday prediction.
WB is gonna have its work cut out for them on the international release. Key dates for when the Man of Steel returns:
July 12 — France, Spain, Belgium
(2 days after the World Cup final)
July 13 — Argentina
July 14 — UK, Brazil, Mexico
August 3 — Netherlands
August 17 — Germany
August 19 — Japan
September 1 — Italy
(most cinemas there are closed in summer)
Surprisingly, Puerto Rico and much of Latin America have a release date “Proximamente” (coming soon).
I have it on good authority that Avi Arad’s current production deal was more about him having personal issues (an ailing father) and wanting to delegate day-to-day work to others, than because Marvel is in tumult.
For the record, I only mentioned that 2006 was a little light in the $250M Club. I didn’t ask why. Just a quibble, but I noticed that on the Hot Button I am being qouted as asking “Why haven’t there been any $250 million films this year?”
I don’t understand why $200 million for SR is a lost cause. The movie probably makes around $25 mil this weekend, which brings it close to $150 mil. Weekday grosses are big in July and will help this movie gross $200 million. Bad news is it won’t gross much more than that.
“DP – first time in 5 years that not a single film has crossed the $250M mark. Usually the type of BO arcana you comment on….”
Sorry I didn’t quote you directly, Roy…
???
Jeffmcm – “I have it on good authority that Avi Arad’s current production deal was more about him having personal issues (an ailing father) and wanting to delegate day-to-day work to others, than because Marvel is in tumult”.
He cashed his options the Monday after X3 opened huge. It was an out at Marvel’s peak. No one knew it was coming and it did froze the stock when it should have gotten a bump from X3. What your source told you has never surfaced on-or-off the record. I’m not doubting them, because it sounds like a plausible in-house answer to keep the talent calm…but Avi or Marvel could have, at any moment, announced that to soothe investors and it would have worked. So from a business perspective, when the company leveraged its character rights to be on the hook for a 1/2 Billion, (meaning if they default, Marvel characters will be in a piecemeal bank fire sale), it doesn’t gel.
Maybe. My source is indeed in-house talent.