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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

4-Day Weekend Estimates by Klady

No real surprises this weekend.
Crank, the teen skewing actioner, fell behind Invincible, the family feel good, after Crank had a slight lead on Friday.
The Wicker Man was less of an unmitigated disaster than it could have been.
Little Miss Sunshine continues to build effectively on word of mouth and simple, clean ads. My $50 million guess on the film

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50 Responses to “4-Day Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. Bilge says:

    >>”doesn

  2. EDouglas says:

    Congrats to Box Office Guru for nailing all of his predictions this week in Box Office Hell! (only off on Illusionist but he was almost to the dollar with everything else)

  3. David Poland says:

    Here’s the problem with that, Bilge.
    Some films deserve to die.
    Of course, very few of us know whether Idiocracy deserved this ignoble end. Your passion for it is probably going to get me into a screening this afternoon here in L.A. But it is hard to get people to write about a murder when there is no body and no evidence of foul play.
    Truth is, had Mike Judge gone out on the rampage for this film and pushed the “Fox fucked me” agenda, there would have been attention paid. But I can only guess that, a. he didn’t feel the movie was worth saving, and/or b. his extremely lucrative business relationship with Fox TV kept him from opening his mouth.
    If someone like Judge wants to draw attention to something like this, it is completely doable. And he didn’t sqwawk.
    And I would guess that the only doubt Fox execs have right now is why they didn’t dump it quietly many months ago, to save on interest payments.
    Yet, I will go spend my money to see it. And I hope I concur with your passion, as I am no more interested in wasting my time or my money than anyone else.

  4. EDouglas says:

    I just don’t understand the reasoning for not opening Idiocracy in New York. Makes absolutely no sense at all.

  5. Blackcloud says:

    Boo hoo for the terribly overrated Mike Judge.

  6. Crow T Robot says:

    If you took a Mel Brooks film from the 1970s and released it now, you get a good idea of where Idiocracy is coming from. Today we tend to dismiss the silly “jew shtick” of Brooks’ comedy in favor of that great satiric core. Judge’s film has that same loosy-goosy quality… it’s too uneven to love but there’s a real high-minded subversion that demands respect. The dick and fart jokes always have a point (even if they don’t always work) and the use of fairly big companies (Carl’s Jr, Fuddruckers and maybe Starbucks) to make a social point is sometimes shocking. I get the feeling that Fox realized what Judge was up to only after filming and were left petrified. This from the same studio that released Fight Club!
    I’m really anxious to hear Poland’s take after seeing the film. This certainly has to be more than just a case of a lousy movie being dumped. Just look at the huge roll out for “Accepted.”
    And remember DP, STAY PAST THE CREDITS!

  7. jeffmcm says:

    Michael Bay and Rob Cohen films are the ones that ‘deserve to die’, not moderately funny satires like this one.

  8. Jeremy Smith says:

    Judge didn’t squawk because he’s burned out by the whole Hollywood rigmarole (he didn’t make any noise when OFFICE SPACE got shelved and dumped either). Honestly, I’d be surprised if he ever makes another live-action movie. When I talked to him several years ago prior to the production of IDIOCRACY, he was already dreading the arduousness of the filmmaking process. That he suffered more this time out, and ended up with a movie that probably won’t become a cash cow on DVD and cable, should be enough to occasion a long, possibly permanent sabbatical.

  9. Lota says:

    Idiocracy wasn’t that terrible…at least not enough to get dumped. Raw yes, terrible, No.
    thought the awareness of “information” in the future was rather funny, esp having spent most of my life outside of the USA.

  10. Danny Boy says:

    A quick look at IMDB’s Now Playing section shows both a one sheet and a motive for murder. I can only hope that somebody sees this movie. It looks like a worthwhile effort.
    I’m a Judge agnostic. I love Office Space and most of Beavis and Butthead, but I found King of the Hill kinda weak. Maybe I’m just biased because of my love of the other Beavis and Butthead spinoff, Daria.

  11. FrankBooth says:

    I think the freakish numbers for Superman Returns are due to it still playing in 3D IMAX theaters like here in Toronto. Looks like it may reach $200mil after all.
    Does anyone think Luke Wilson is a star? I like his quirky charm but he can’t carry a film and put people in the seats. I know FOX has been sitting on Idiocracy for 2 years but the resounding flop of My Super Ex-Girlfriend may have doomed it to being dumped like it is.

  12. breadlymoore says:

    “Judge didn’t squawk because he’s burned out by the whole Hollywood rigmarole (he didn’t make any noise when OFFICE SPACE got shelved and dumped either).”
    But SPACE didn’t get shelved or dumped, which is a common mistake mid-tempo bloggers like you are making when they whine about the IDIOCRACY situation.
    The film received a fair release, even accompanied by pre-release public sneak previews. I think when those previews showed about 30% capacity, that’s when the color drained from Fox’s face. They still went forward on the picture. It still went out there wide-release. It was just unadventurous, knucklehead audiences who didn’t show up.
    Also, nobody seems to be writing that the same thing is happening to Luc Besson’s messy-but-sillyfun BANDIDAS in three weeks. Another Fox nothing release in random cities. And that has Salma Hayek and Penelope Cruz in corsets, fergoodnesssake.

  13. Lota says:

    …and Wicker man was so baaaad…I can’t believe it was that bad. Why oh why did they not keep with the same type of copper & social scenario(instead of LeBute’s troubled mindspring on Women) they had in the original? THAT could have worked with a younger actor than Cage who looked so worn & corpse-like. He appeared to have repeatedly stumbled onto the “wrong set” and I wondered how he could maintain that “WTF is going on” throughout the movie.
    not. good.
    fans of the original…stay away. While IMDB ratings are hard to guage it’s pretty clear stench is coming off this movie fast.

  14. Tofu says:

    I’ll just see this as someone at Fox having a vendetta against Luke Wilson and be done with it.
    Will The Illusionist expand even more?

  15. EDouglas says:

    Yes, Illusionist is slated to expand into 1400 plus theatres next week. Great job by the Yari Film Group on this one.

  16. Jeremy Smith says:

    breadlymoore: I’ll grant you that I’m being overly dramatic on the “shelved” bit (shit, I might be wrong on any kind of delay altogether; I’ve always recalled OFFICE SPACE’s release being bumped from Fall/Winter ’98 to February ’99, but it doesn’t appear to have sat around for nearly as long as it felt at the time), but I’d hardly categorize a 1,740 screen debut bolstered by a weak television ad buy a “fair release”. All those sneak previews told Fox was that the attendance was commensurate with the efforts of their marketing department. And it’s not like sneak previewing is indicative of a studio’s faith in a movie. RADIO FLYER, fergoodnesssake, was sneak previewed.
    Mid-tempo…

  17. martin says:

    Office Space was a word of mouth movie. No major stars, no big special effects, or “high-concepts”. Fox put a decent amount money in the marketing, they got me in opening weekend (though I think some of that was due to Dave’s review at the time, calling it a major watercooler movie). It had a reasonably funny poster, decent trailer, etc. But they positioned it as an opening weekend movie, when it should have been sold more in the Little Miss Sunshine route – small # of theaters building up the good word of mouth. Instead, like Big Lebowski around the same time, it opened and closed before the word could really get out. I remember seeing Sat Night showings of OFfice Space and Lebowski and they were both near empty theaters, but I could just feel that they would be classic comedies down the road.

  18. martin says:

    Idiocracy is also one of the few studio movies I’m aware of that’s ever been released without any sort of trailer or marketing materials. Even super low budget indies and direct to vid crappers these days have their trailers, etc. all over the net. It’s all very strange.

  19. prideray says:

    The print ad, virtually identical to the posters that were up at the theater, is at the top of the page at http://www.moviecityindie.com. I wrote about OFFICE SPACE when it was released, and an executive at Fox actually went out of his way to call (several times), wanting to talk about the film and its potential reception. A rare case.

  20. EDouglas says:

    I think the denizens of another message board figured out that the last movie to get a release without a trailer was Paul Schrader’s Exorcist prequel, but you have to give credit to Disney for having success with “Stay Alive” since that movie had nothing for the longest period of time, maybe up until two weeks before it opened.

  21. Eric says:

    Maybe Office Space failed in theaters because it’s shot about as well as a TV show, and as such it works much better on television.
    And the movie has some laughs, but I don’t understand the love for it. It’s unfocused, tonally uneven, and structurally deformed.
    Mike Judge is sort of like Todd Phillips– full of great ideas, but without the skills needed to make them really work onscreen.

  22. Pat H. says:

    I have no idea whether “Idiocracy” is any good but I have a suspicion that its not. However you would have thought that FOX, knowing the kind of cult “Office Space” picked up after its release on home video would have had some kind of mini-marketing campaign ready to go to bring to the attention of potential moviegoers that “Idiocracy” was “From the maker of Office Space”.
    I have no idea whether “Idiocracy” is any good but I have a suspicion that its not however

  23. Lota says:

    if I hadn’t seen Idiocracy mentioned on this board, I would have forgotten that it was the Judge film–it was on the marquee as I was entering a theatre but nearly all who saw it with me came to see something else and changed their minds when the tix guy was explaining it was the same person who had written Office Space.
    Idiocracy and Wicker Man in the same weekend. I need a drink.

  24. Jeremy Smith says:

    Ray: I’m shocked someone at Fox cared enough about that OFFICE SPACE to call you repeatedly at the time of its release. It’s been made plain to me by folks who were on both ends of that battle that Fox gave up on the movie well before it screened for critics.
    I’m also shocked I missed that Brian Raftery piece for ESQUIRE. I’m glad to hear Judge still has that hunting movie kicking around, and hope he’ll rouse himself to get it made even after this debacle.

  25. prideray says:

    I made the rare error of saying something nice about executives in print: that was the impetus, but I say no more…

  26. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “Maybe I’m just biased because of my love of the other Beavis and Butthead spinoff, Daria.”
    God yes. After The Simpsons and Futurama, this is my favourite animated series. So freakin’ hilarious!
    On Mike Judge, I looove Office Space. FLARE!! I do remember seeing an Idiocracy poster though.

  27. jeffmcm says:

    Since when was Todd Phillips ‘full of great ideas’? I liked Old School, but great is hardly the word I would use for anything he’s done.
    I just looked him up and was stunned to see him listed as a producer on All the King’s Men. WTF?

  28. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Oh, and also – Beerfest and Idlewild? Ouch.
    Also, will The Illusionist be able to beat the gross for Giamatti’s Lady in the Water? If so, that’s pretty hilarious.
    And I’m surprised nobody has mentioned that out of Monster House, Ant Bully and Barnyard, the ultimate winner will actually be Barnyard. Not only will it make more money but it was probably cheaper too, although I don’t know that for sure (it certainly LOOKS cheaper).

  29. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Sorry, me again. But I just read this at Box Office Guru and it made me laugh.
    “At its current rate, it [Little Miss Sunshine] should eventually surpass Miami Vice as the top-grossing R-rated film to come out of the summer.”
    umm… that’s sorta screwed up, but also sorta wonderful.

  30. Joe Leydon says:

    I don’t know if “Idiocracy” is worth seeing or not, but…I am old enough to know how often studios bury, or dump, great films. I can remember when “Get Carter” (the original, not the remake) opened at drive-ins in N.O. during its first-run release. (On a double bill with “Alex in Wonderland.”) No kidding.

  31. Danny Boy says:

    I shed a tear thinking that Monster House will be outgrossed by a piece of shit like Barnyard. I guess the moral of this story is that the one to come out first gets the biggest opening weekend and the one to come out last has the strongest legs. For a second there I almost felt bad for Ant Bully, which just got massacred, but then again, nah. But really? The only animated feature that isn’t a wacky look at stereotypes played out in random animals or cars loses to such luminary masterpieces as Barnyard, Over the Hedge, and Ice Age 2. And if I have to endure with another pissed off animal voiced by Wanda Sykes, I’ll hurt somebody.

  32. frankbooth says:

    The individual who posted above is not me.
    Trying to get my attention, pal? Or are you hoping to be the recipient of a love letter, straight from my heart?
    So what’s your name, neighbor?

  33. Spacesheik says:

    Mr. Cage, I knew Edward Woodward. And you, Sir, are no Edward Woodward.

  34. Hey, Dave. Just wanted to through this out… when put those numbers up for Idiocracy, my theatre here in the greater Los Angeles area had done a bit more than 2400 for the three day period. Today, after the Times printed its rave review in the Calendar section, we did 1605 for Idiocracy, or about 40% of the four day business.
    I doubt Fox is going to give any more support to the film, or put it out in any more theatres, but it appears people are starting to find the film on their own, and they’re really enjoying it. I made it a point to steer every person I could who came to the box office and asked “What’s good?” to Idiocracy, with only one person coming back to tell me I was wrong.

  35. EDouglas says:

    “Mr. Cage, I knew Edward Woodward. And you, Sir, are no Edward Woodward.”
    I didn’t know Edward Woodward, and I could have told you that.

  36. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    unfortunately, for a movie such as this, critics do it a lot more good than one person telling a few friends that it’s good.

  37. Me says:

    I don’t get the love for Monster House. I found it pretty slight in characterization or depth. But that may be because after Dave’s glowing review, I went in expecting a whole lot more than was there.
    I found Over the Hedge to be the best animated flick of the summer, as with its attempts at satire, it was trying to reach to be something more. Not much, but a little.
    But yes, I am sick of Wanda Sykes playing pissed off animals, too.

  38. Eric says:

    I’ll stand by what I said about Todd Phillips. His movies are better in theory than they are on screen. (Will Ferrell starts a frat house? Great! Snoop Dogg as Huggy Bear? Yeah!) But the movies never meet their potential, and it’s because he’s not a good enough writer and director to do his ideas justice.

  39. oldman says:

    Sorry to break this thread; but, WAKE UP DP!!! Swallow some asperin, chug some coffee; and start ranting about Tom Feston’s resignation at Viacom. Who is the biggest loser in all this? Speilberg (Dreamworks et al) or… Brad Pitt????

  40. Jette says:

    Thanks for posting even the shakiest numbers on Idiocracy — I couldn’t find any numbers in the usual places where I look at box-office stats. I saw this movie on Friday night in Austin to a full theater, and everyone seemed to enjoy it … definitely flawed, but the barrage of gags mostly worked and I laughed my head off.

  41. jeffmcm says:

    ‘Will Ferrell starts a frat house’ is a fun idea, but let’s not devalue the word ‘great’ by applying it there, regardless of execution.

  42. Eric says:

    Semantics aside, I think you understand my point.

  43. jeffmcm says:

    Sure.

  44. Hopscotch says:

    Many, and I mean MANY, of my friends who are not particularly movie buffs, love Office Space. I have no idea how much in made on video rentals but I’m sure it’s huge. There was always something in the third act of that movie where it just completely lost steam. I still like it and still laugh, but I’ll hold off on Idiocracy until it hits my netflix que.
    Between Devil Wears prada, John Tucker and Borat, maybe Fox thought it had one too many comedies and just didn’t want to spend that much on this one. Not saying that makes sense or is a smart play, but just a gander. And why the hell is Dax Shepard in every other movie this fall. who the hell is this guy?

  45. Hopscotch, one slight problem with the “one too many comedies” thought… Idiocracy was filmed in the Summer of 2004 and was originally supposed to be released during the Summer of 2005. Fox dumped the film because it scared them, which makes no sense because they knew what they were getting into when the greenlit the script.

  46. martindale says:

    I’ve still been seeing TV ads for Superman in Imax in the past few weeks. That and its push into discount theatres soon will help it reach the $200 mil mark.

  47. martin says:

    Office Space is classic, but the third act really is weak. It’s kind of a common mistake for a comedy, the laughs drop off as the plot kicks in. Of course in a comedy, the plot is somewhat beside the point, people just want to laugh. But the first 2/3rds of Office Space is some great stuff.

  48. FrankBooth says:

    Oops, sorry frank…no harm intended. Simply picked a memorable character from favorite director of mine. Is there a list of ppl who post here so I can avoid doing this again, heh. Will pick another name anyhow…

  49. frankbooth says:

    No problem.
    After I beat the hell out of Dorothy Vallens, my associate Ramon and the mailman, I calmed down and realized it might be a simple mistake like that. Sorry to be so touchy, but A) I’m a psychopath on lots of drugs, and B) we’ve had some trouble with wiseguys on this blog in the past.
    You can keep your ears.

  50. Lota says:

    gee I’m glad all those robins landed and brought their light to this blog (and cleared up the mystery of the 2 frank booths!) so we only have to wonder aloud Once…’Why are there people like Frank?’

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4