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David Poland

By David Poland

Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14

Looks like The Grudge 2 will be off about a third from The Grudge, which seems like a victory to me, given that it looks like an even crappier film than the original remake. Even with that drop, it will become (for now) a Top 20 opening in this year, like to come out around the same place as Underworld: Evolution, both in opening ($26.9m) and final number ($62).
The Departed will be close to $55 million after two weekends and will probably be behind both Flags of Our Fathers and The Prestige next weekend. But WB would be well advised to invest in a second wind campaign the week after, finding itself in position to get 3 more strong weeks out of November before Bond. (The most dangerous film for The Departed is, oddly, Borat, though it may not hit the adults squarely for its first few weeks.)
The opening of Man of the Year may seem disappointing, but it will probably be bigger than any two weekends for Wag The Dog, back in 1997. Wag was a truly great film and I haven

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9 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14”

  1. Direwolf says:

    October shaping up well so far realtive to last year. Nothing doing exceptionally well but a bunch of OK box office performers vs. really lousy box office a year ago. Starting with Halloween thugh the compas toughen up.
    I don;t own Lionsgate anymore but it will be interesting to see well Saw 3 does given that there seems like more horror stuff out there this year. It is all doing OK though.
    Speaking of horror, I watched Shaun of the Dead last night. Really enjoyed it. Those Brits got a great sense of humor. What else has SImon Pegg and his sidekick done?
    DP, I emailed you a report on third party film financing.

  2. EDouglas says:

    One Night with the King did AMAZING… I’ve remembered it popping up on the release schedule from time to time over the last few years and every time, I was skeptical and sure enough, it didn’t come out. The original web site was SO ugly, too… really amateurish, so when it looked likely to come out this weekend (in wide release no less) and I saw how pro the web site had become, I was quite impressed but still skeptical… $5 million is nothing short of astounding. (BTW, I hear that Omar Shariff and PEter O’Toole appear in the movie for about ten minutes combined…what a ripoff)

  3. EDouglas says:

    Simon Pegg and Nick Frost did Spaced together… it’s very much in the Scrubs vein, but it’s about Pegg and his female roommate and the goings on at an apartment complex. (Frost played a war game nut who always dressed in military gear.)
    If Hot FUzz is half as funny as the teasers at San Diego, it’s going to be the funniest movie of ’06 for sure.

  4. jeffmcm says:

    I thought three wide-release horror movies this month didn’t seem like much, but then I realized that last year was basically the same except that the movies were even crudder (Doom and The Fog) so there was a huge pent-up demand that Saw II was able to capitalize on, which won’t be the case by the time Saw III comes out.

  5. Tofu says:

    Goodbye Employee & Chainsaw, you won’t be missed.
    Departed has had some excellent weekday numbers, so look for that to be going strong past the weekend. No, Borat won’t be hitting adults anytime soon, if at all. Prestige and Flags is where the real fight begins and ends.
    One Night With The King’s $1,652 per theater average is perfectly fine, but nowhere near jaw-dropping.

  6. Wrecktum says:

    I’m surprised that The Guardian hasn’t held up better. Not a great film by any stretch of the imagination, it did seem like the type of movie that would hold the interest of non-discriminating older audiences.

  7. Direwolf says:

    Thanks, ED. Mojo has Hot Fuzz for a March 07 release. FWIW, Spaced has a 9.5 rating out of 10 on IMDB. Might have to find the boxed set.

  8. EDouglas says:

    I haven’t had a chance to get the DVD yet and I’ve only seen most of the shows once, when they aired them on BBC America. If you have the DVD of Shaun of the Dead, check out the extras where Simon and Edgar go over the movie’s layout/script from beginning to end. It’s really amusing how they mapped out all the gags/beats.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    EDouglas: Actually, O’Toole has just one scene. But Sharif has a bit more screen time. And I must say: I was pleasantly surprised by the film as a whole.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon