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David Poland

By David Poland

Klady's Weekend Estimates

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48 Responses to “Klady's Weekend Estimates”

  1. The Carpetmuncher says:

    $77.2 for The Departed with only a 30% drop in the 3rd weekend means this film is going to make a lot more than just $100 million. $120 is possible, maybe more, especially when it gets all those award nominations and possibly awards.
    This film has huge legs, and is playing well across all age groups.

  2. Cadavra says:

    Wow, how long has it been since the last time the top three grossers were all clearly intended for adults?

  3. jeffmcm says:

    7.6 for Flicka doesn’t seem too bad, I can’t imagine it had a huge budget and it should clean up on video.

  4. Wrecktum says:

    Flicka was in more than 2,800 theaters. The fact that it was beat by the fourth weekend of Open Season is a big disappointment.
    Big winner this weekend: Disney. Not only did their challenging period piece open as number one, but their 3D release of Nightmare Before Christmas had a huge theater average.
    Big loser of the week: Paramount/Dreamworks. For obvious reasons.

  5. Blackcloud says:

    I saw a trailer for “The Queen” before “Marie Antoinette.” I take that to mean it’s going to be expanding. But when? Could they really wait until next year?

  6. jeffmcm says:

    If Fix thought that Flicka was going to open to $20m they were crazy. I reiterate, I can’t imagine them being seriously upset by its opening. Boxofficemojo lists its budget ar $15m.

  7. jeffmcm says:

    Sorry, that should read “Fox” not “Fix”.

  8. Wrecktum says:

    No one expected Flicka to hit $20m. But to be beat by the fourth weekend of Open Season? C’mon!

  9. EDouglas says:

    Re: Departed… I’m thinking picture, screenplay, director, maybe Nicholson depending on what category they put him in, maybe supporting actress for Vera Farmiga if it’s a weak year..nothing for DiCaprio (who has been spurned by the Academy so many times before being nominated for Aviator, a much stronger role) or Damon or anyone else.

  10. EDouglas says:

    Someone who knows told me when THe Queen was going nationwide… if I recall correctly, it’s either Nov 10 or Nov 17… probably 800-1000 theatres.

  11. EDouglas says:

    Sorry, three in a row, but I disagree with the Departed/Walk the Line comparisons… not even remotely the same. Walk the Line was all about the strong performances… Departed is more about the script and direction. Ultimately, Walk the Line only got nominations for the performances (and sound or something like that)… Departed might get a SAG Ensemble but they’ll have a hard time picking one performance out ala Crash whereas other movies have solid leads.

  12. jeffmcm says:

    Wreck, are you gonna say that to a guy wearing a $4000 dollar suit? Come on!

  13. Wrecktum says:

    Who’s wearing a $4000 suit?

  14. Blackcloud says:

    I sure ain’t. I’m not sure my entire wardrobe is worth that much.
    EDouglas, thanks for the info.

  15. jesse says:

    Yeah, like a guy in a $6000 suit is going to answer questions from someone who doesn’t make that much in a month? COME ON!

  16. David Poland says:

    ED, the comparison is not the film, but the positioning…

  17. Tofu says:

    As much as I wanted a Departed sized opening for Prestige, it simply wasn’t happening with THAT theater count. Even $20 million was out of the question, a figure that could have been possible if the market wasn’t so stuffed.
    Nolan’s effort has the word of mouth that V For Vendetta thrived on earlier this year, and Disney is likely the best in the business when it comes to holding exhibitor houses on a healthy level throughout a run.

  18. jeffmcm says:

    V for Vendetta thrived? It opened well but it didn’t have especially long legs.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    “…not attracting boys at all because there is no sex or hope of same.”
    Dave, you must have skipped out on Jackass 2.

  20. Aladdin Sane says:

    Is Nightmare Before Christmas 3D going wider than it is? I’m in BC, and it’s not in one single theater here…not even downtown Vancouver. And this was one release I was looking forward to checking out. Can you say, “Arrrrrggggggh!”?

  21. Well, it’s in 3D and not every cinema is capable of showing 3D.
    “Nolan’s effort has the word of mouth that V For Vendetta thrived on earlier this year, and Disney is likely the best in the business when it comes to holding exhibitor houses on a healthy level throughout a run.”
    That’s like an oxymoron, right? I thought you were saying it was awful but apparently… not?

  22. EDouglas says:

    “ED, the comparison is not the film, but the positioning…”
    Could you elaborate please? I’m not sure I understand the comparison even in terms of positioning. I see The Departed being basically in the same position that The Aviator was two years ago except that it came out a few months earlier and has built more buzz because of it.

  23. EDouglas says:

    “”…not attracting boys at all because there is no sex or hope of same.”
    Dave, you must have skipped out on Jackass 2.”
    I think any girl who would ask me to take her to see Jackass 2 is already too kinky for my tastes.

  24. Tofu says:

    No, just speaking on word of mouth via demographics. Vendetta came a little short of the 3x multiplier.
    Then again, it would be more pointed to compare it directly to Batman Begins for both word of mouth and box office chances. Funny.

  25. Cadavra says:

    SCISSORS had a PSA of $28,500. That’s not a record-breaker, but I’d hardly call it “weak.”

  26. jeffmcm says:

    Tofu, why are you talking about The Prestige’s word of mouth or multiplier in comparison to any movie when it has only been open for one weekend?

  27. Skyblade says:

    Wow, how long has it been since the last time the top three grossers were all clearly intended for adults
    And notice how proportionate the starpower is to the strength of these movies being released. Nicholson’s a great hook for older audiences. DiCaprio was something of a tween boy, but the movies he pursued and his raw wattage is too much to ignore has made him known to these audiences.
    Jackman may eventually get up there, but he and Bale are still best known for being superheroes. The concept and cast of the Prestige has more of an appeal to teens. A Batman vs Wolverine isn’t quite as irresistable to older audiences.
    And Flags of Our Fathers? Pretty much a cast of folks who’s successes came from explicitly teen-skewing movies that even the target audiences might not even remember.
    Older audiences are drawn to starpower. An adult skewing movie with newcomers, character actors, or leading men who are till scraping off the smell of bubblegum is a doomed project, even if the director is reknown. Look at Munich.
    I do think the casual adult moviegoer is much less open-minded than the casual teen moviegoer. I think there’s a need for the latter to have something as part of its generation, while the former wants as many movies as possible to resemble their’s. I’m sure this might be insulting for the 30 and older crowd here, but let me ask you…did your love for independent and art films come before or after you hit 30?

  28. Tofu says:

    Jeff, you write that like word of mouth for a majority of films now isn’t decided by Saturday morning.

  29. jeffmcm says:

    Okay, so what is it, all-knowing, all-seeing Tofu? Just because I liked it and all of my friends who saw it with me liked it, I wouldn’t presume to know that it’ll have strong legs.
    Skyblade, you have a point but the younger demographic seems to be less open-minded, not more. This is why a movie like When a Stranger Calls becomes a hit.

  30. austin111 says:

    Whoah, EDouglas, if you think The Departed is just all about the script and the direction, think again, bud! The first thing out of the mouth of one of my friends when we left the theater was — wow, everyone was great in that movie, not one weak performance. Now if you can’t see that for yourself, I’m not sure you’re in the right trade here. As for DiCaprio — best performance he’s given in years, more consistent than in The Aviator even. It’s the first time he comes across as a man, one gripe about The Aviator being that he didn’t seem to look old enough, until they put more makeup on him. I’m not sure Damon has ever been much better than here either. Nicholson — he’s fine in the film, but it ain’t just him, E. The other performances made a bigger impression, maybe because I’ve seen Jack do better stuff. Besides, you’ve kinda been wrong from the get-go on this baby.

  31. Tofu says:

    Odd that the message between ours would be about direct word to mouth.
    All-Seeing & All-Knowing? Hardly, however, WOM (which, yes, has a much broader stroke on the net than any marketing could hope to match) is a clear indication of possible legs. Combined with Buena Vista’s distribution plans, one can have a strong case to presume.

  32. jeffmcm says:

    I just don’t see how you can gauge WOM when the movie has only been around for 4 days now. If you’re so sure, what percentage will it drop next weekend?

  33. Tofu says:

    I’m sure of nothing, and never said as such. I’d be surprised to see a 50%+ drop anywhere in it’s run. Low 40% drops for the next two weeks, and high 30% drops could be expected for the two weeks following.

  34. Skyblade says:

    Skyblade, you have a point but the younger demographic seems to be less open-minded, not more. This is why a movie like When a Stranger Calls becomes a hit.
    When a Stranger Calls doing brisk business isn’t because kids are narrow minded. (Though the demo is a reliable one for horror, sure) In fact, being able to sell swill to kids would indicate gullibility, which is kind of the dark side of “open-minded”. What I’m saying is, I’m of the belief a larger segment of the mainstream youth is probably more receptive to new ideas in film (and not all new ideas are good, mind you) than the mainstream majority of adults.

  35. jeffmcm says:

    Younger demographics are open to things like Jackass, which to me is a good thing, so maybe we agree.

  36. Eric says:

    Younger demographics are open to more simply because they have more free time and possibly disposable income. If they see some crap one week, it doesn’t matter. There’s another movie out the next.
    Older viewers have to be more discerning because they have jobs, kids, etc.– less time, less opportunity to see a variety of movies. So they go with the familiar product that will be at least passable– the Nicholson movies. (My mother, for example, will rarely bother to get to the theater for anything other than a Hugh Grant movie.)
    Of course, these economies don’t apply to the narrow segment of obsessed moviegoers we have here.

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    Blade: But wouldn’t you agree then that the older demo would be interested — more interested than the 18-to-35 crowd — in a movie about WWII?

  38. palmtree says:

    I think the “open-minded” we’re talking about is more about marketing. Kids are open-minded to things that are marketed at them…they are less cynical about it and believe that things that are new to them are in fact new to everyone (sometimes they are!). But I wouldn’t say they are more open-minded overall…especially when it comes to traditional arts that do not have marketing muscle. In other words, open-mindedness means you seek out things different than what’s in front of you, not you see a commercial and decide you want to go watch the movie.

  39. iowabeef says:

    does anyone know when Little Children will be released somewhere other than NY and LA? I’m in Phoenix and I haven’t seen a trailor, posters anything. And usually Box Office Mojo lists expansions, but they have nothing on this.

  40. murdocdv says:

    In other news, Superman Returns finally passed $200 million domestic this weekend, only a month before it’s release on DVD and 4.5 months since it’s theatrical release.

  41. David Poland says:

    That’s all they wanted… perpetuate the mythology…

  42. murdocdv says:

    You have hinted at this before, but I’ll bite. Are you suggesting that Warners is padding/inventing grosses to get the picture over $200m domestic? Is there any auditing of reported numbers? Could shareholders sue for inaccurate gross numbers?

  43. jeffmcm says:

    Murdocdv’s initial comment is more demonstrative of the movie’s patheticness than it is supportive.

  44. Cadavra says:

    Such numbers are often padded, usually for ego or bragging rights. In the end, grosses don’t matter; film rental does. They only have to prove the latter, which is a percentage of theatre gross.

  45. palmtree says:

    In some contracts, $200 million kicks in some bonuses for director, etc. Also, if I recall, WB said they would make the sequel if Supes did 200. So I guess it means Singer may still have a job.

  46. murdocdv says:

    Jeffmcm, my comments aren’t supportive at all. I liked the movie, saw it twice, once in IMAX 3D, and it’s very flawed, but I still enjoyed the good bits enough to like it.
    That said, I find it kinda sad that it has limped across $200m domestic so pathetically, conversely I am appalled that a movie this flawed is within $4m of Batman Begins domestic gross, which was one of the best movies of 2005 in my humble opinion.
    palmtree, Singer’s involvement seemed a lock as far back as July when he said at the San Diego Comic Con he planned on going “wrath of khan” on the Supes sequel.

  47. palmtree says:

    “Seemed” is the key word. He’s replaceable unless WB made a dumb deal.

  48. Aladdin Sane says:

    Finally saw The Prestige. Loved it. That is all.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4