By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Klady's Weekend Estimates
I don
I don
http://www.soulduster.com/ on: Friday Estimates by Klady
http://www.rehabsandrentals.com/ on: Friday Estimates by Klady
Joe Leydon on: Weekend Estimates by MacKlady
Abi on: Weekend Estimates by MacKlady
betavaftrar on: 3-Day Estimates By Klady That Made The Clown Cry
Tashie Jackson on: Friday Estimates by Klady
Jeffrey Boam's Doctor on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
DiggityDawg on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
David Poland on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
berg on: Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
Weeeknd Estimate Leftovers by Klady
Friday Estimate by MuthaSmurfin’ Klady
4 Day Estimates by Vehicular Klady
Friday Estimates by Green Klady
4 Day Estimates by Wolfpack Klady
Weekend Estimates by Screaming Rio Klady
Friday Estimates by Rio de JaKlady
Friday | Screens | % Chg | Cume | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Title | Gross | Thtr | % Chgn | Cume |
Venom | 33 | 4250 | NEW | 33 |
A Star is Born | 15.7 | 3686 | NEW | 15.7 |
Smallfoot | 3.5 | 4131 | -46% | 31.3 |
Night School | 3.5 | 3019 | -63% | 37.9 |
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls | 1.8 | 3463 | -43% | 49.5 |
A Simple Favor | 1 | 2408 | -50% | 46.6 |
The Nun | 0.75 | 2264 | -52% | 111.5 |
Hell Fest | 0.6 | 2297 | -70% | 7.4 |
Crazy Rich Asians | 0.6 | 1466 | -51% | 167.6 |
The Predator | 0.25 | 1643 | -77% | 49.3 |
Also Debuting | ||||
The Hate U Give | 0.17 | 36 | ||
Shine | 85,600 | 609 | ||
Exes Baggage | 75,900 | 62 | ||
NOTA | 71,300 | 138 | ||
96 | 61,600 | 62 | ||
Andhadhun | 55,000 | 54 | ||
Afsar | 45,400 | 33 | ||
Project Gutenberg | 36,000 | 17 | ||
Love Yatri | 22,300 | 41 | ||
Hello, Mrs. Money | 22,200 | 37 | ||
Studio 54 | 5,300 | 1 | ||
Loving Pablo | 4,200 | 15 |
3-Day Estimates | Weekend | % Chg | Cume |
---|---|---|---|
No Good Dead | 24.4 (11,230) | NEW | 24.4 |
Dolphin Tale 2 | 16.6 (4,540) | NEW | 16.6 |
Guardians of the Galaxy | 7.9 (2,550) | -23% | 305.8 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | 4.8 (1,630) | -26% | 181.1 |
The Drop | 4.4 (5,480) | NEW | 4.4 |
Let's Be Cops | 4.3 (1,570) | -22% | 73 |
If I Stay | 4.0 (1,320) | -28% | 44.9 |
The November Man | 2.8 (1,030) | -36% | 22.5 |
The Giver | 2.5 (1,120) | -26% | 41.2 |
The Hundred-Foot Journey | 2.5 (1,270) | -21% | 49.4 |
first…
$77.2 for The Departed with only a 30% drop in the 3rd weekend means this film is going to make a lot more than just $100 million. $120 is possible, maybe more, especially when it gets all those award nominations and possibly awards.
This film has huge legs, and is playing well across all age groups.
Wow, how long has it been since the last time the top three grossers were all clearly intended for adults?
7.6 for Flicka doesn’t seem too bad, I can’t imagine it had a huge budget and it should clean up on video.
Flicka was in more than 2,800 theaters. The fact that it was beat by the fourth weekend of Open Season is a big disappointment.
Big winner this weekend: Disney. Not only did their challenging period piece open as number one, but their 3D release of Nightmare Before Christmas had a huge theater average.
Big loser of the week: Paramount/Dreamworks. For obvious reasons.
I saw a trailer for “The Queen” before “Marie Antoinette.” I take that to mean it’s going to be expanding. But when? Could they really wait until next year?
If Fix thought that Flicka was going to open to $20m they were crazy. I reiterate, I can’t imagine them being seriously upset by its opening. Boxofficemojo lists its budget ar $15m.
Sorry, that should read “Fox” not “Fix”.
No one expected Flicka to hit $20m. But to be beat by the fourth weekend of Open Season? C’mon!
Re: Departed… I’m thinking picture, screenplay, director, maybe Nicholson depending on what category they put him in, maybe supporting actress for Vera Farmiga if it’s a weak year..nothing for DiCaprio (who has been spurned by the Academy so many times before being nominated for Aviator, a much stronger role) or Damon or anyone else.
Someone who knows told me when THe Queen was going nationwide… if I recall correctly, it’s either Nov 10 or Nov 17… probably 800-1000 theatres.
Sorry, three in a row, but I disagree with the Departed/Walk the Line comparisons… not even remotely the same. Walk the Line was all about the strong performances… Departed is more about the script and direction. Ultimately, Walk the Line only got nominations for the performances (and sound or something like that)… Departed might get a SAG Ensemble but they’ll have a hard time picking one performance out ala Crash whereas other movies have solid leads.
Wreck, are you gonna say that to a guy wearing a $4000 dollar suit? Come on!
Who’s wearing a $4000 suit?
I sure ain’t. I’m not sure my entire wardrobe is worth that much.
EDouglas, thanks for the info.
Yeah, like a guy in a $6000 suit is going to answer questions from someone who doesn’t make that much in a month? COME ON!
ED, the comparison is not the film, but the positioning…
As much as I wanted a Departed sized opening for Prestige, it simply wasn’t happening with THAT theater count. Even $20 million was out of the question, a figure that could have been possible if the market wasn’t so stuffed.
Nolan’s effort has the word of mouth that V For Vendetta thrived on earlier this year, and Disney is likely the best in the business when it comes to holding exhibitor houses on a healthy level throughout a run.
V for Vendetta thrived? It opened well but it didn’t have especially long legs.
“…not attracting boys at all because there is no sex or hope of same.”
Dave, you must have skipped out on Jackass 2.
Is Nightmare Before Christmas 3D going wider than it is? I’m in BC, and it’s not in one single theater here…not even downtown Vancouver. And this was one release I was looking forward to checking out. Can you say, “Arrrrrggggggh!”?
Well, it’s in 3D and not every cinema is capable of showing 3D.
“Nolan’s effort has the word of mouth that V For Vendetta thrived on earlier this year, and Disney is likely the best in the business when it comes to holding exhibitor houses on a healthy level throughout a run.”
That’s like an oxymoron, right? I thought you were saying it was awful but apparently… not?
“ED, the comparison is not the film, but the positioning…”
Could you elaborate please? I’m not sure I understand the comparison even in terms of positioning. I see The Departed being basically in the same position that The Aviator was two years ago except that it came out a few months earlier and has built more buzz because of it.
“”…not attracting boys at all because there is no sex or hope of same.”
Dave, you must have skipped out on Jackass 2.”
I think any girl who would ask me to take her to see Jackass 2 is already too kinky for my tastes.
No, just speaking on word of mouth via demographics. Vendetta came a little short of the 3x multiplier.
Then again, it would be more pointed to compare it directly to Batman Begins for both word of mouth and box office chances. Funny.
SCISSORS had a PSA of $28,500. That’s not a record-breaker, but I’d hardly call it “weak.”
Tofu, why are you talking about The Prestige’s word of mouth or multiplier in comparison to any movie when it has only been open for one weekend?
Wow, how long has it been since the last time the top three grossers were all clearly intended for adults
And notice how proportionate the starpower is to the strength of these movies being released. Nicholson’s a great hook for older audiences. DiCaprio was something of a tween boy, but the movies he pursued and his raw wattage is too much to ignore has made him known to these audiences.
Jackman may eventually get up there, but he and Bale are still best known for being superheroes. The concept and cast of the Prestige has more of an appeal to teens. A Batman vs Wolverine isn’t quite as irresistable to older audiences.
And Flags of Our Fathers? Pretty much a cast of folks who’s successes came from explicitly teen-skewing movies that even the target audiences might not even remember.
Older audiences are drawn to starpower. An adult skewing movie with newcomers, character actors, or leading men who are till scraping off the smell of bubblegum is a doomed project, even if the director is reknown. Look at Munich.
I do think the casual adult moviegoer is much less open-minded than the casual teen moviegoer. I think there’s a need for the latter to have something as part of its generation, while the former wants as many movies as possible to resemble their’s. I’m sure this might be insulting for the 30 and older crowd here, but let me ask you…did your love for independent and art films come before or after you hit 30?
Jeff, you write that like word of mouth for a majority of films now isn’t decided by Saturday morning.
Okay, so what is it, all-knowing, all-seeing Tofu? Just because I liked it and all of my friends who saw it with me liked it, I wouldn’t presume to know that it’ll have strong legs.
Skyblade, you have a point but the younger demographic seems to be less open-minded, not more. This is why a movie like When a Stranger Calls becomes a hit.
Whoah, EDouglas, if you think The Departed is just all about the script and the direction, think again, bud! The first thing out of the mouth of one of my friends when we left the theater was — wow, everyone was great in that movie, not one weak performance. Now if you can’t see that for yourself, I’m not sure you’re in the right trade here. As for DiCaprio — best performance he’s given in years, more consistent than in The Aviator even. It’s the first time he comes across as a man, one gripe about The Aviator being that he didn’t seem to look old enough, until they put more makeup on him. I’m not sure Damon has ever been much better than here either. Nicholson — he’s fine in the film, but it ain’t just him, E. The other performances made a bigger impression, maybe because I’ve seen Jack do better stuff. Besides, you’ve kinda been wrong from the get-go on this baby.
Odd that the message between ours would be about direct word to mouth.
All-Seeing & All-Knowing? Hardly, however, WOM (which, yes, has a much broader stroke on the net than any marketing could hope to match) is a clear indication of possible legs. Combined with Buena Vista’s distribution plans, one can have a strong case to presume.
I just don’t see how you can gauge WOM when the movie has only been around for 4 days now. If you’re so sure, what percentage will it drop next weekend?
I’m sure of nothing, and never said as such. I’d be surprised to see a 50%+ drop anywhere in it’s run. Low 40% drops for the next two weeks, and high 30% drops could be expected for the two weeks following.
Skyblade, you have a point but the younger demographic seems to be less open-minded, not more. This is why a movie like When a Stranger Calls becomes a hit.
When a Stranger Calls doing brisk business isn’t because kids are narrow minded. (Though the demo is a reliable one for horror, sure) In fact, being able to sell swill to kids would indicate gullibility, which is kind of the dark side of “open-minded”. What I’m saying is, I’m of the belief a larger segment of the mainstream youth is probably more receptive to new ideas in film (and not all new ideas are good, mind you) than the mainstream majority of adults.
Younger demographics are open to things like Jackass, which to me is a good thing, so maybe we agree.
Younger demographics are open to more simply because they have more free time and possibly disposable income. If they see some crap one week, it doesn’t matter. There’s another movie out the next.
Older viewers have to be more discerning because they have jobs, kids, etc.– less time, less opportunity to see a variety of movies. So they go with the familiar product that will be at least passable– the Nicholson movies. (My mother, for example, will rarely bother to get to the theater for anything other than a Hugh Grant movie.)
Of course, these economies don’t apply to the narrow segment of obsessed moviegoers we have here.
Blade: But wouldn’t you agree then that the older demo would be interested — more interested than the 18-to-35 crowd — in a movie about WWII?
I think the “open-minded” we’re talking about is more about marketing. Kids are open-minded to things that are marketed at them…they are less cynical about it and believe that things that are new to them are in fact new to everyone (sometimes they are!). But I wouldn’t say they are more open-minded overall…especially when it comes to traditional arts that do not have marketing muscle. In other words, open-mindedness means you seek out things different than what’s in front of you, not you see a commercial and decide you want to go watch the movie.
does anyone know when Little Children will be released somewhere other than NY and LA? I’m in Phoenix and I haven’t seen a trailor, posters anything. And usually Box Office Mojo lists expansions, but they have nothing on this.
In other news, Superman Returns finally passed $200 million domestic this weekend, only a month before it’s release on DVD and 4.5 months since it’s theatrical release.
That’s all they wanted… perpetuate the mythology…
You have hinted at this before, but I’ll bite. Are you suggesting that Warners is padding/inventing grosses to get the picture over $200m domestic? Is there any auditing of reported numbers? Could shareholders sue for inaccurate gross numbers?
Murdocdv’s initial comment is more demonstrative of the movie’s patheticness than it is supportive.
Such numbers are often padded, usually for ego or bragging rights. In the end, grosses don’t matter; film rental does. They only have to prove the latter, which is a percentage of theatre gross.
In some contracts, $200 million kicks in some bonuses for director, etc. Also, if I recall, WB said they would make the sequel if Supes did 200. So I guess it means Singer may still have a job.
Jeffmcm, my comments aren’t supportive at all. I liked the movie, saw it twice, once in IMAX 3D, and it’s very flawed, but I still enjoyed the good bits enough to like it.
That said, I find it kinda sad that it has limped across $200m domestic so pathetically, conversely I am appalled that a movie this flawed is within $4m of Batman Begins domestic gross, which was one of the best movies of 2005 in my humble opinion.
palmtree, Singer’s involvement seemed a lock as far back as July when he said at the San Diego Comic Con he planned on going “wrath of khan” on the Supes sequel.
“Seemed” is the key word. He’s replaceable unless WB made a dumb deal.
Finally saw The Prestige. Loved it. That is all.