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David Poland

By David Poland

Sunday Estimates by Klady


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35 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. abba_70s says:

    Was anyone surprised that “Top Gun on Water” didn’t do any better?

  2. Tofu says:

    Good GOD.
    Just saw that Open Season had a budget of $85 million. And we were being told these films are being made on the cheap this year?!?

  3. David Poland says:

    $85 million for CG Animation IS cheap.

  4. Tofu says:

    Shrek (2001): $60 million
    Ice Age (2002): $59 million
    Shrek 2 (2004): $70 million
    Hoodwinked: $15 million
    Doogal: $20 million
    Ice Age 2: $80 million
    Monster House: $75 million
    Ant Bully: $50 million
    Barnyard: $51 million
    Cheap you say?

  5. David Poland says:

    The Shrek and Ice Age numbers are all false… like half the price false.
    Doogal and Hoodwinked were made in Europe and acquired. No idea how much they actually cost.
    Ant Bully and Barnyard were done on the cheap and are closest to their real numbers.
    Monster House is pretty accurate and that ($75m – $100m) is the Sony range.
    Most of the Pixar and DWA movies have been over $100 million.

  6. Tofu says:

    Anything tipping you off to the Shrek & Ice Age numbers?
    Still, $85 million is above average (or the new average?), and is simply not the budget for a late September release.
    The Wild: $80 million
    Shark Tale: $75 million
    Robots: $75 million
    Madagascar: $78 million
    Antz: $60 million
    The costs on Pixar & Disney films are all over the place. I’ve seen A Bug’s Life at $45 million and $120 million, and Chicken Little at $60 million and $150 million. They most be folding studio infrastructure costs into these estimates.

  7. EDouglas says:

    Hoodwinked is an American production…independently made for around $15 million I believe before it was picked up by the Weinsteins. They also had the guys behind that movie rework/rewrite a lot of The Magic Roundabout for its US release as Doogal, so I have to assume it was more expensive but not that much more.
    The Shrek 2 price seems low, but I can see the first Shrek and Ice Age being made for that little. (That Ice Age 2 number is the number that was reported on BOM BTW… can’t imagine it being double that amount.)

  8. Wrecktum says:

    Any word on how well Open Season IMAX 3D fared? I didn’t even know that the film was opening in IMAX until a few days ago.
    For a process that showed so much promise back when Polar Express opened, IMAX 3D seems pretty much an afterthought these days, doesn’t it?

  9. Tofu says:

    In clear agreement that Open Season & Monster House should have been switched. Open Season has been completed for sometime now, so it looked available. Even out of the positive reviews, Monster House was always cited that an October release would have enhanced the flick.
    One could easily see Open Season opening fine in July, and even cutting into Barnyard’s gross more than Monster House did.
    The marketing by Focus was even more dry than the movie itself.

  10. martin says:

    I’m not sure where Tofu got his #’s from, but almost every one is way short of the final. Major releases like the Shreks, Ice Ages, and recent Pixars cost well over $100 mill. Heck, Dinosaur from 6 yrs ago cost close to $200 mill. Open Season is certainly not low budget, but it’s not in the Disney or DW price range either. It’s a middle of the road CG, and has done middle of the road #’s.

  11. martin says:

    Wreckturn, I agree. Imax 3D like other gimmicks was hot for a little while there but ultimately audiences could care less.

  12. Tofu says:

    Open Season was slightly burdened, as Superman Returns still filled many night IMAX showings over the weekend.

  13. Tofu says:

    Pixar and Disney are the outliers in CG Budgets.

  14. David Poland says:

    I assume Tofu is pulling numbers from B.O. Mojo, which is more often than not wrong in that department. Truth is, Mojo has no editorial insight, only box office numbers that come from the same sources as everyone else. (This is something they try to spin. But it

  15. Tofu says:

    The question then is what have you seen that proves them wrong, or are these simply suspicions based on… ???
    In that case, even the $85 million budget for Open Season would be questionable.

  16. palmtree says:

    Mr. Poland, Hoodwinked was produced in the Phillipines (an outsourcing job). That’s why the budget of $15 million is probably not too far off.
    Is it so surprising that the underperforming CG movies are generally the ones with the lowest budgets?

  17. David Poland says:

    I haven’t seen anything, Tofu. I talk to people who have their hands on real numbers every day.
    You can certainly question Sony’s strategy of trying to get into the animation business. Stuart Little and Final Fantasy remain ugly landmarks. But this budget is not really a surprise for anyone I know who’s close to the action.
    The fact is, the kid biz is a great biz once you are in. Fox failed and lost a lot of money before Ice Age turned the corner for them. Now we

  18. EDouglas says:

    Re: Open Season IMAX 3D…Variety reports $1.2 million… not sure how many locations/screenings.
    Hoodwinked was produced in the Phillipines? DIdn’t realize that… suprised DW and Pixar aren’t grabbing some of that talent.
    You’re right, though… Flushed Away and Happy Feet are going to be big benchmarks for DW and WB going into the holiday season. I saw a preview of FLushed Away much like the Happy Feet one and it looked like it could appeal more towards older animation fans (there’s a great Bond-inspired boat chase) but it’ll all come down to marketing.

  19. martin says:

    Flushed Away feels a little too European to make much in the US. Even franchise of Wallace and Gromit didn’t make a whole lot here.
    Happy Feet has dollars signs written all over it.

  20. palmtree says:

    The thing with animation is that the U.S. has the best ones in the world. They are the best trained and have the best equipment. So they demand top dollar for their work and everyone pays up. So either you have a smaller budget and take a hit in quality or you go to Asia where everyone will work harder for less money. Ask Jeffrey Katzenberg who outsourced the Father of the Pride TV series to Hong Kong.
    And yes, Happy Feet will be a huge hit and will erase any doubt that celebrity voiceovers and cute talking animals can still work wonders.

  21. Wrecktum says:

    Open Season is on 65 IMAX screens according to the Sony website. If the $1.2m is accurate, then that’s a pretty good theatre average.

  22. wolfgang says:

    Only one thing to say: Bring on The Departed.

  23. jeffmcm says:

    We all know that Final Fantasy was a big flop, but Stuart Little grossed $300 million worldwide and spawned a sequel, which hardly sounds like an ‘ugly landmark’.
    DP, would it be fair to call your budget figures…hearsay?

  24. Cadavra says:

    Two sequels, actually, though #3 was fully animated and direct to DVD.

  25. Josh Martin says:

    I don’t know how much The Spirits Within really reflects on Sony — from what I understand it was Square that shouldered all of the production costs (and handled the creative end), with Sony taking over marketing and distribution. Square didn’t even get a guarantee from Sony. And Sony still got something out of the whole situation, since Square went through a bit of a financial crunch afterwards and Sony ended up buying a big stake in the company (which probably helped keep Square in the Playstation camp).

  26. palmtree says:

    Final Fantasy flopped because it is still in the realm of anime, which has a ceiling in theatrical. The only anime that has done significant business theatrically is Pokemon at $85 m, and even then it had video games, TV shows, a wildly popular card game, and toys, etc. Everything else has done far less…even Spirited Away could only muster $10 m. But these films do very well on video, including the recent Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children which has been a big seller. For now, CG animation means non-anime, kid-friendly, funny, and fairly conventional narratives.

  27. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    David, I’m a little confused as to you numbers for The Queen and The Last King of Scotland

  28. adorian says:

    I love this snarky quote from The Defamer site:
    “11. All the King’s Men–$1.6 million
    Two weekends, just over $6 million. That extra year of editing definitely seems to be paying off.”

  29. Sandy says:

    Happy Feet will do incredible business. Already one of my 60+year old grandmas wants to go see it, never mind the little kids. Penguins are THE ultimate in cute animals.

  30. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “The Last King of Scotland” (which opened on Wednesday) looks to have the better commercial prospects than “The Queen”. Idi Amin was one of those “Friendly Dictators” the U.S. loved to support.
    Let’s see if Miramax can buy Oscars now the way it used to when Harvey was doing it. Everyone knows the Academy Awards are fixed just like elections are in the U.S.

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, are you saying people will see Last King because Americans _like_ Idi Amin?
    Or are you just tossing rhetorical bombs into the blog?
    Either way, it’s a retarded thing to do.

  32. Spacesheik says:

    What was that expensive Matt Damon CGI sci-fi flick? That one was also a bomb on par with THE SPIRITS WITHIN.

  33. Spacesheik says:

    “11. All the King’s Men–$1.6 million
    Two weekends, just over $6 million. That extra year of editing definitely seems to be paying off.”
    Adorian you know what’s sad? A year ago supposedly James Gandolfini had a major supporting role in the film and there was Oscar buzz.
    Poor guy. He did that Redford prison flick and now this.

  34. jeffmcm says:

    Do you mean Titan A.E.? That was mixed CGI/hand-drawn animation.

  35. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    Speaking of Gandolfini, who hear really wants MGM (or whoever has it these days) to release Tim Blake Nelson’s Romance & Cigarettes with James, Susan Sarandon and Kate Winslet (looking hot and with a foul mouth!)
    When I saw The Devil Wears Prada last Friday (it opened down here this week) a teaser for Happy Feet was shown and the crowd was definitely very receptive. That one is gonna be this year’s big December film (i also wish Eragon would disappear plz)

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon