MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

20 Weeks To Oscar – Isn't It Romantic?

“Finally, Clint Eastwood was ready to lower the boom and let everyone have their ecstatic release. Come on, Clint

Be Sociable, Share!

13 Responses to “20 Weeks To Oscar – Isn't It Romantic?”

  1. jeffmcm says:

    One question, DP, I get the impression that you’ve seen a lot of the contenders in the last couple of weeks – is there any way you can differentiate between the guesses and your more fully ‘informed’ guesses here?

  2. The Carpetmuncher says:

    Borat & Martha Stewart on Leno tonight was an instant classic. Is the big question whether Cohen is gonna get a Best Actor nomination? Or if he’s gonna go in character when he does? I guess before that, he could actually WIN the Golden Globe. Wild.
    This weekend, it’s practically guarenteed to make more than it did on opening weekend, which makes it the biggest hit of the year, doesn’t it? Crazy.
    I’m not convinced there’s that much love out there for Eddie Murphy, but only time will tell.
    Nicholson should be up there for the Golden Globe as well, he’s guarenteed to be nominated for Drama.
    I love Leo in The Departed, but how does he get nominated and not Matt Damon? If there’s any justice, Ryan Gosling gets nominated for Half Nelson over either of them…
    If I got to vote, I got Will Smith, Forest Whittaker, Gosling, Nicholson & Borat…with Aaron Eckhardt as the alternate in case Jack get’s bumped down to supporting with Michael Pena, Alan Arkin & Brad Pitt…
    Actress I got Meryl, Mirren, Penelope, Sienna, & Kate Winslet…for supporting Rinko, Carmen Maura, Emma Thompson, Shareeka Epps, and Maggie Gyllenhal (for WTC)…
    Director I got Marty, Pedro, Inarritu, Stone & Frears…altough it’s tough to imagine Eastwood not getting a nom…
    Picture I got The Departed, Babel, Volver, World Trade Center, & Little Miss Sunshine…
    And I hope Dreamgirls rocks and shakes up the pot…
    Question: has this blog ever commented on the cocaine/writhing behind scene being almost completely excised from the release print of The Departed?

  3. EDouglas says:

    “This weekend, it’s practically guarenteed to make more than it did on opening weekend, which makes it the biggest hit of the year, doesn’t it?”
    No, that would still be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. Borat has to make another $100 million just to match that movie’s opening weekend.

  4. EDouglas says:

    Emmanuel Levy is in the HFPA? Pray tell what country does he write for?

  5. How do you fathom that it’ll be the biggest hit of the year after this weekend? That’s odd.
    My predix atm are:
    PIC: Dreamgirls, Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen and… Volver. I’m not sure bout that fifth spot, but for now that’s what I got
    DIR: Condon, Scorsese, Frears, Almodovar, Greengrass. Let us remember that the director’s branch nominated Fernano Meirelles for a film released in January that made $10mil (or something like that) so that obviously doesn’t matter to them
    ACTRESS: (the much more interesting category this year) Cruz, Dench Mirren, Streep and the fifth spot could easily go to one of about 7 women at this point, but I say… Blanchett as a wild guess, trumping Winslet, Bening, etc.
    ACTOR: DiCaprio, O’Toole, Smith, Whitaker and because there’s no one else at the moment, Gosling. Weird. I never thought he’d get in, but he seems to be STILL riding a wave of goodwill which is always a good sign.
    SUPP ACTRESS: Blanchett, Breslin, Hudson, Maura, Thompson. It took Julianne Moore a while to really be loved by the Academy and I think this year Blanchett will pull a Moore in 2002 and get 2 noms. But will the fact that this is clearly a co-lead hurt her? I doubt it considering the fraud that’s been commited previously.
    SUPP ACTOR: Affleck, Arkin, Murphy, Nicholson, Sheen. I think Affleck will pick up a few noms and possibly win a few enough to slide in over some soft competition. The other four seem solid for now though. They may wanna chuck another Departed man in though, but who? I’d look at MARTIN SHEEN over anyone else. Alan Alda, anyone?
    Aren’t ALL the Departed men going Supporting though? I read that somewhere.

  6. White Label says:

    I think that Blanchett will probably spread her votes too thin to get nominated this year. With primo roles in Babel (supporting), Good German (lead), and Notes on a Scandal (supporting), people won’t know what to put her in for and she’ll end up with nothing.

  7. austin111 says:

    Cohen and/or Gosling and/or DiCaprio? Which one will go? I really don’t see any other nominees on the horizon. I don’t think Clooney will make it this year. Nicholson might but I think he’s more likely to go somewhere as supporting. Damon, though strong, didn’t do something quite as spectacular as DiCaprio in The Departed and also, I believe it will hopefully be revealed soon, in Blood Diamond. That is, re-invent himself in a sense as a real leading “man”/star who is also a very fine actor rather than the overly boyish “tween” he’s been in his last few roles. No disparagement of Damon, who already is a leading man and fine actor, but his accomplishments this season will more likely be unrewarded with any noms, though I wouldn’t be bothered if he got any.

  8. It’s interesting seeing this year’s Best Actor category be like the Best Actress category most years: Filled with contenders that rarely correlate with Best Picture. Instead, all the BP contenders are in Supporting Actor.

  9. Sam says:

    DP: I still don’t understand the rationale behind putting Will Smith in the lead on the Best Actor race. This week, he’s the “85%” likely winner? Have you seen the film yet, or are people really buzzing that loudly about it? You’re still the only one I know of that’s making this call. I just want to know where this comes from.
    I still think O’Toole has it, unless the film flops.

  10. The Carpetmuncher says:

    My preditiction: Venus flops, and O’Toole gets shut out. The movie, and the actor, are charming, but in the end, not very spectacular, and both a big yawn.

  11. frankbooth says:

    Am I the only one reminded of Harry Knowles’s infamous Blade 2 review?

  12. lazarus says:

    I don’t know if the Academy is going just throw something at O’Toole just for the hell of it, especially when they just gave him an honorary award. Plus, didn’t he do the same thing, only much better, in My Favorite Year?
    Granted, they pulled that stunt with Newman back in 86/87, but The Color of Money was a higher profile film with a pretty powerhouse performance, and a revisiting of a legendary and previously nominated role. Say what you will about the film’s inferiority to The Hustler, but he’s great in it. Plus Newman’s much more of a Hollywood treasure, and was up against the no-way-in-hell roster of Dexter Gordon, James Woods, Bob Hoskins (equally deserving), and the previous year’s winner William Hurt. Do you really think O’Toole is strong enough to fend off the never awarded Forest Whitaker, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Will Smith? It’s a weak year for the category, but getting a nom is going to be a cakewalk compared to a win this time.
    I think the smart money is on Whitaker, who has definitely paid his dues, and would be along the same lines as Hoffman’s Capote win, or Smith, who is going to be yanking down those heartstrings like Quasimodo.

  13. James Leer says:

    I’m not so sure about that…I think “Venus” is going to speak to older Academy members in a way that not many other films this season will.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon