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David Poland

By David Poland

Klady's Friday Estimates

Borat did over $10,630 per screen yesterday. Based on that, the estimates for the weekend should still vary between $22 million and $27 million.
The closest thing it a precedent here is Fahrenheit 9/11

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29 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates”

  1. Nick Rogers says:

    Me excite for Borat. He won’t be execute now.

  2. Eric N says:

    Borat’s up by over $3M?! That’s crazy!

  3. Dave says:

    :Flags of Our Fathers

  4. Direwolf says:

    Saw3 steadily falling back towards Saw2. Could be at or under the pace at end of weekend. Clearly that bigger pening weekend for 3 was pullng forward receptis. 2 may end up being the peak for this franchise althugh I am sure Saw45678 will be nicely profitable.

  5. Eric says:

    I’m not surprised about Borat or Santa Clause. I stood in a long line for half an hour for Borat, during which time I saw maybe two or three people go into the Santa Clause auditorium across the hall.

  6. anghus says:

    Nikki Finke said this last night:
    “OK, my gurus are telling me that today’s Borat matinees are HUGE and so are tonight’s showings. The per screen averages in those 837 theaters will be killer this weekend. But they say Disney’s Santa Clause 3 is still gonna win the weekend with its 3,458 theaters”
    Nikki Finke is a fucking retard.
    Who are her ‘gurus’?

  7. Wrecktum says:

    Her gurus might be right. Santa 3 could still pull in a big Saturday and (imporantly) Sunday.
    Either way, a huge opening for Borat and a big vindication to Poland, who’s been playing up the box office potential of this film for months.

  8. Jonj says:

    The box office gurus really overestimated

  9. MattM says:

    Both Santa and Flushed will rally as the weekend goes on, since they’re family fare. I really don’t understand what Dreamworks did with Flushed–opening it against another family film and without huge hype. A shame, since it’s considerably better than Dreamworks’ recent non-Aardman films. Probably dumped in part because of the discontent with Aardman.
    If Disney is smart, they’ll snap up Aardman as quickly as they can as a joint venture partner.

  10. fnt says:

    Today my mother called and told me she wants to see “this Borat movie.” Unbelievable. Good job Rupert Murdoch and friends!

  11. David Poland says:

    The “gurus” is Amy Pascal and occasionally, those who work for her.
    The idea that you know the whole weekend from friday matinees is stupid, as anyone who really works box office at a studio will tell you… especially on teen or kid films.
    My “vindication” is also my “mistake” and is also my “vindication” again. The discussion about the film jumping the shark was real. And the discussion of its potential was real. And I still think the film wil come up tens of millions short of its potential. But it looks like a big win all around. And the Fox call to go to 800 screens is looking like genius… even if some now think they could have had a massive weekend this weekend and wish they had. The truth is, this gives them the buzz they really needed – “We saw it and it really is that funny” – and it gives them less pressure before they get to the 5-day Thanksgiving, which could well be a $40 million – $50 million explosion of repeat viewing and new must sees.

  12. EDouglas says:

    Well, at least Volver averaged almost as much per theatre as Borat and THe Queen will be in the Top 10 so at least there’s that to be happy about. I think your early prediction of $35 million in 2500 theatres is quite insane though… Fahrenheit 9/11 doubled its theatres in Week 2 and still dropped 30% and that had just as much opening weekend frenzy. Borat is nearly tripling its theatres and I wouldn’t expect it to match its opening in those first 837..and it won’t be as easy a sell in the other 1750 or so. I think that it should end up right around or just above whatever it makes this weekend in week #2, which should be enough to put it over Stranger Than Fiction for #1.

  13. EDouglas says:

    BTW, I think it’s hilarious that EW, the publication whose Borat cover was used to sell even more tickets to the movie has a story in this week’s issue called “Borat on a PLane?” Where they declare “Once again, online hype looks unlikely to translate into big time box-office. Can anyone make this work?” Oops.

  14. Wrecktum says:

    No one ever accused EW of having insightful boxoffice analysis.

  15. David Poland says:

    Again… Borat ain’t F9/11… nor was it ever SoaP.
    1. Borat will have about double the added playdates that F9/11 had. (2200 is an estimate… exhibitors will now be fighting to get the film next weekend, before Happy Feet and Bond)
    2. Borat is a much rangier movie age-wise than F9/11 was.
    3. There really is no precedent for this. Blair Witch did $29 million on 1100 screens and dropped 16% when doubling screen count the next weekend. But that was with 2 exclusive weekends to start and the cover of Time for the first expansion. Could be similar.
    If there is anything close to precedent, it might be Jarhead ($27.7m on 2411 screens) and (8 Mile – $51.2m on 2470 screens), but as you see, both had triple the screens Borat did. And those are the two biggest holiday (Nov/Dec) openers on fewer than 2500 screens in the last decade.
    Yes, Borat could be burning bright and heading for a (relative) fall. But there is

  16. Zac Bertschy says:

    Are there any predictions yet as to what Happy Feet might actually gross? I’m wondering if it’s going to suffer the same fate as movies like Open Season and now Flushed Away; audiences weary of sassy talking animal CG kids’ movies.
    I realize the film’s pedigree is higher and even Flushed Away is supposed to be a good film, but audiences seem like they’re trending toward total dismissal of the latest talking animal CG movie. I don’t think that bodes well for Happy Feet (even less well for Sony’s copycat ‘surfing penguins’ sassy talking animals CG kids’ movie due next summer).

  17. palmtree says:

    “audiences weary of sassy talking animal CG kids’ movies.”
    Yes, but…
    1. Robin Williams, who I know is a cliche but it works.
    2. They are weary of bad movies, ones that are poorly marketed, ones that reek of imitation of previous hits (e.g. Ant Bully). I think the market still loves CG movies that are done well, given a great marketing push, and the timing seems great too.
    The Incredibles’ 260 million is the high mark I believe for the type of film and the season.

  18. EDouglas says:

    “1. Borat will have about double the added playdates that F9/11 had. (2200 is an estimate… exhibitors will now be fighting to get the film next weekend, before Happy Feet and Bond)”
    You think? Even with the success in the targetted areas (big cities, college towns), this movie is not going to play well in certain areas. One can’t expect that it’s going to average $25k in a weekend in other areas, since usually, it’s the bigger theatres in New York and L.A. which drive up those averages, the ones that can do $50k to $100k in a weekend easily. The theatres with only one or two screens are not going to make a two week committment to Borat with Bond and Happy Feet coming out a week later.
    (And in regards to the question of Happy Feet….never underestimate the power and appeal of penguins)

  19. On Borat: Wow. I’m thinking it’ll level out to about $23mil, but that’s still freakin’ fantastic. Next week? I don’t see it increasing as much as you Dave, but it definitely has more room to breath than Fahrenheit 9/11 did. That was never going to play to certain audiences, Borat – with all the extra press it’s gonna receive – can reach those audiences.
    On Flushed Away: Can easily get to $15mil and higher, which would be a good number I think considering everyone seemed to be downplaying it (HOW CAN A MOVIE SET IN A SEWER BE A HIT?!?! – huh?)
    On Santa Clause 3: Yawn.
    On the rest: Good to see The Queen and Volver going good. Volver could easily get a screen average of over $40,000. Why is Man of the Year still buzzing around like a fly around dead meat.
    On Happy Feet: I think parents will be able to see that this one isn’t like all the others. Yes, it’s talking animals, but it’s not talking forest animals or talking rats or whatever, it’s TALKING PENGUINS! Plus, it gets a great response from all ages so I see it as a hit. Hopefully it is, anyway.

  20. Joe Leydon says:

    For what it’s worth: Caught “Borat” at a 7 o’clock screening tonight in Houston at the AMC 30. It was in one of the biggest auditoriums — but the house was only half full. The response was largely enthusiastic, however. (I must admit: I laughed loudest at the throaway sight gag involving a bear and a refrigerator.) Can’t say I found it any more “transgressive” than, say, “National Lampoon’s Van Wilder” (remember the eclairs filled with dog semen?) or “jackass number two” (take your pick of any scene), and I don’t believe all the “set-ups” are on the up-and-up. But, hell, funny is funny, and much of the movie is hilarious.
    BTW: Did they have to abruptly cut off the final scene because a gag didn’t work? I’m talking about Borat’s introduction of his new “wife” back home. I felt like a punchline or a pay-off got left on the cutting room floor.

  21. Josh Massey says:

    Joe, I said the same thing: the funniest moment of the movie was the opening of the refrigerator.
    I think the set-ups are mostly legit, with the exception of the last one (obviously).

  22. Blackcloud says:

    Saw “The Queen” tonight. Had to stand in a long line of “Borat” hopefuls to get tickets. Surprisingly, things were pretty calm on the way out of the theater, so maybe the late shows weren’t sold out. But the evening ones sure were close if not there. Two people I know saw it last night, and their shows were sell outs.
    “The Queen” was in a smaller auditorium; all but the seats near the screen were taken.

  23. eoguy says:

    How were Borat screens positioned in the U.S? Here in Toronto the Paramount was showing it on at least two screens Friday, but by the end of the night it was running on three screens. I’m not exactly sure how that worked since I’m assuming they had to bump another movie’s showing.
    It might’ve been a one-evening event though. My friends and I showed up at the downtown cinema at 7:30 and all of the shows were sold out until the two screenings that were running at 11:45 p.m.
    As for the Queen, the rollout in the U.S. seems a little slow. In Canada the film has expanded into the suburbs where — when I grew up there — we didn’t see Oscar movies like this until December or January when they hit their wide release. Obviously things have gotten faster in the past five years, but still to see the Queen play an hour’s drive out of the big cities usually took a 800+ screen North American release, at least.
    This weekend must be the first time that I’ve taken a real notice of the rollout differences between Canada and its neighbour.

  24. eoguy, could it be because Canada is a Commonwealth state and are much more identified with the Royal family. There would probably be much more interest in The Queen in the suburbia of Canada than in the suburbia of America.
    …or that’s just my thinking because I’m certain it’d be the same in Australia.

  25. SJRubinstein says:

    I went to the Grove in L.A. last night and “Borat” was sold out all night at least by 6 (I was there to see “Flushed Away” – I lucked into a “Borat” BAFTA screening a couple weeks back). People were actually selling “Borat” tickets like scalpers at an AC/DC concert by the fountain.
    And I LOVED “Flushed Away.” So fun, so charming – from the minute Roddy chooses between a Wolverine costume and the sequin jumpsuit from “The Boy From Oz.”

  26. Direwolf says:

    $9.9 million on Saturday for Borat. Wow. And very nice upticks for SC3 and FA.

  27. eoguy says:

    KamikazeCamel, I’m almost certain Canada’s status is playing a part in the rollout of the Queen, still it doesn’t seem to me like it should be the most shining example of a different release platform. The movie is playing to an early 20-something crowd as well, at least I’m finding that amongst my friends, helped by strong word-of-mouth here and very positive press.
    On a completely underrelated note, Netflix is saying that the French-Canadian film is finally make its DVD-debut in the U.S. in early December. Definitely take a look.

  28. eoguy says:

    Okay, somehow I managed to screw up that last paragraph of my post, so let me try again….
    On a completely underrelated note, Netflix is saying that the French-Canadian film C.R.A.Z.Y. is finally making its DVD-debut in the U.S. in early December. Definitely take a look.
    Here’s to proofing copy.

  29. Joe Leydon says:

    Damn! I was hoping you were going to say “Night Zoo” is finally available on DVD.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon