Sunday Estimates by Klady – 11/19
Box Office Mojo, for the sake of reference, has Happy Feet wining the weekend by $1.7 million. I imagine we will get more of a sense of
April 20, 2024
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
A virtual tie. Very good for both titles. I knew the penguins would pull it out in the end, but this bodes well for both films going into the long T’giving weekend and it also bodes well for the rest of the holiday season.
Knew this was going to become a close fight, even if I expected at the $45 million range.
Huge drops all around. Borat at nearly 50%, Flags at 70%, Harsh Times at 75%, Man of the Year at 81%. Painful to watch.
Didn’t even notice how little Deliver Us from Evil drew until now. Unforgivable.
Isn’t looking pretty for the following week either. Deck The Halls on 3000, Deja Vu on 3000, Tenacious D on 1800, Bobby on 1650, Fountain on 1400, and all types of other shenanigans to come.
I was wondering about that… Nikki posted her usual number and Jeffrey Wells quickly jumped to post the exact same numbers… I’m going with BOM because there’s obviously a lot of fudging going on both with Sony and Warner Bros… curious to see what Nelson EDI comes up with. Their numbers will be posted here:
http://www.nielsenedi.com/charts/index_print.html
… And For Your Consideration made more in 23 than Fast Food Nation in 321. Color me stunned.
For a moment I had the thought that maybe there aren’t enough screens in the marketplace. Isn’t that funny? Or, scary? Raise your hand if the market is being flooded with too much product.
I predict The Queen will be near $30 million by the end of the year. That should be enough to get a nomination. My predictions for Best Picture are:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
What could get the fifth spot. Could it be Babel? I have a sneaky feeling Blood Diamond could sneak in and take the fifth spot. It seems like the kind message movie that both critics and voters could get behind.
Hm.. just went to check BOM again in case they decided to separate the Thursday night midnight shows into a separate amount, but nope… I just think their numbers are closer to what I calculated based on Friday and Saturday estimates and normal Sunday patterns. Both companies should be happy and proud, but you know that Monday is going to be all about finger-pointing on which corporation is the biggest liar… gotta love the movie biz.
(Agree Tofu… I’m stunned, because FF Nation is a far more weighty and worthwhile film)
I am sad that neith 9/11 movie will probably not get nominated, especially United 93. History will be kind to Greengrass’ masterpiece.
I rarely comment but here goes:
Was gravely dissappointed in Happy Feet. Was I wrong in thinking it was marketed as a full-scale fun musical? I can’t take my neice and nephew to that. They won’t get it.
I think if Forest Whitaker moved to supporting he could win, but he’s not the lead. Barely recognizable and powerful though.
Fast Food Nation blew my mind. Why isn’t this movie being talked up more? By far the most disturbing movie I’ve seen in years. I felt sick after watching it. And that Moreno girl is fabulous again. She needs more work!
History will not be kind to United 93. The only reason it’s held in high esteem for now is that people are applying their own preconditioned emotions to it, not because it’s actually a good movie. It isn’t. Years from now, once there’s a greater distance for those who experienced 9/11 and also for people who weren’t around when it happened, the movie’s cardboard characters, silly shaky-cam, amateurish acting, monotony of tone and attempts at myth-making will be much more obvious.
^ Perhaps. But people tend to be kind to older films, so I suspect the opposite. U93 will be seen more as a historical piece than an actual film.
No one talk about “8 Films to Die For”?
It openings is surprisly strong.
I have a feeling that the “bling bang” line in the trailer will be single-handedly responsible for killing Blood Diamond’s Oscar chances.
I am restrained by embargo, Jimmy… but no fucking way to your closing idea…
David, by the way, there’s a great interview with Sacha Baron Cohen in the new Rolling Stone (with Cohen, not Borat, so it’s readable)… I still don’t really agree with his tactics and mindset on how to deal with racism, but at least he takes the time to explain his approach and why he does it, which is very interesting.
“I have a feeling that the “bling bang” line in the trailer will be single-handedly responsible for killing Blood Diamond’s Oscar chances.”
That line is freakin’ terrible..I’m not sure what they’re thinking by featuring it in all the trailers/commercials. Surely, there’s better lines in the movie. then again…
“I am restrained by embargo, Jimmy… but no fucking way to your closing idea…”
Oh, did someone finally figure out how to keep David Poland from charging? (besides taking away his tab at Ammo) 🙂
Then, David, what do you think could get the final slot? You don’t seem to disagree with my prediction of the other four nods. Could it be one of the “Good” movies? (German or Sheperd, not Year.)
Jimmy, IMO it goes to Shepherd…definitely not German.
I gotta pipe up in favor of the year’s best movie, United 93. We all need to find ways to rationalize why we did or didn’t like certain titles, which is what I think Mutinyco is doing.
Meanwhile, I don’t get the ‘Sacha Baron Cohen twist’ or any other ‘Borat twists’ that David is referring to. The movie strikes me as extremely untwisty. Anyone?
“Oh, did someone finally figure out how to keep David Poland from charging? (besides taking away his tab at Ammo) :)”
Meaning? Really asking…
I am embargoed on a regular basis. And they all stick. So unless you’re saying something else, the answer is, “Give him an embargo date and expect a phone call if others start breaking it freely… but never any break without an okay.”
Gent – I don’t know whether Good Shepherd will be anything… it’s long and late and we’ll see.
I would be betting on Pursuit of Happyness, Babel, a surprise comeback by Little Children, a shocker from Letters From Iwo Jima, a World Trade Center muscle-up (though the studio hasn’t been pushing hard enough lately), or a real shocker in Notes On A Scandal… or perhaps Shepherd.
Seven options for one slot.
No way on Little Children. And I think Notes on a Scandal isn’t Best Picture-y enough.
I know this might sound crazy…but I’m wondering if Casino Royale might have a chance the way The Fugitive did a while back.
The Departed has The Fugitive slot.
Is Flags definitely out? I would have thought that the Letters from Iwo Jima release was actually to keep Flags buoyant and that Letters, being in Japanese, never really had a chance.
Flags is out. It dropped 1000 theatres and lost 70% this weekend… no one wants to see this movie, so why should the Academy? Just cause of Eastwood? Hey, he made plenty of crappy movies before making one good one.
“”Oh, did someone finally figure out how to keep David Poland from charging? (besides taking away his tab at Ammo) :)”
Meaning? Really asking…”
I was mixing metaphors to make a really bad joke. the original of course is “How do you stop a rhino from charging?” which is a bit like getting an early bad review from David Poland. Okay, okay, it was probably funnier in my mind. 🙂
“I am embargoed on a regular basis. And they all stick. So unless you’re saying something else, the answer is, “Give him an embargo date and expect a phone call if others start breaking it freely… but never any break without an okay.””
Hm.. I think I figured out which movie you’re talking about, since there’s only one studio I know who constantly reminds people of the day-of-release embargo with every invite.
I thought The Departed had the Scorsese slot.
It has both slots, which it needs – a hit thriller wouldn’t be a contender without Scorsese’s name to lend prestige.
I would love to see Casino Royale sneak in. It’s that a good an entertainment.I would even suggest that Bond could even become a summer stapele like the old days.
ED: What studio is it? Surely there isn’t an embargo on saying which studio is astickler for details?
If Happyness connects like Jerry Maguire, then it has a shot.
Babel needs critics’ cirlces to come back. I have a feeling people are growing tired of the director’s three-stories-to-tell-one-story gimmick. Tell a straight story next time
The Queen has the Notes on a Scandal slot. I would’ve to be fucking mind-blowing to get in.
Little Children is dead. They need to concentrate on Winslet, Jackie, and script.
The same goes with WTC. They need to concentrate on Screenplay and Supporting nods.
I think Letters will definitely be better than Flags, but not enough for a nod. There’s a slight smell of disappointment and desperation surrounding the whole thing.
I can see Shepherd sneaking in. It has a Traffic/Syriana/Good Night, and Good Luck vibe.
This is a little of topic but I got to bring it up. First, Dave complains about Scarlett J not looking sexy on last year’s Vanity Fair cover. Then, he says Eva Green doesn’t do much for him in the new Bond movie. Is he sure he’s not gay? Or, is he saving himself for Rachel McAdams?
He’s waiting for Rachel Weisz to dump Aronofsky.
So am I.
So am I.
My bad for the double posting.
If you think there’s too much product now, just wait a few weeks. There’s bound to be more than a few unexpected casualties along the day. Even the usually dead weekend after Thanksgiving has at least one movie that will be a force.
If you’re talking about Nativity Story, I’m not so sure. Unless there’s some huge groundswell among the churches that doesn’t show up with tracking, it’s a bit of a dud. Heck, has anyone even seen ads for it yet?
^ No, but I’ve seen the trailer so often (every other movie I’ve gone to the last month, it seems) that I feel like I’ve seen the movie already.
It’s the Star Wars of religious movies… We already saw the ending in Jesus: Episode Six – The Passion of The Christ.
Good thing Mel didn’t do it, then. Imagine what he’d do with the birth!
Blackcloud, you have written the funniest thing I saw on the internet this week.
“It’s the Star Wars of religious movies… We already saw the ending in Jesus: Episode Six – The Passion of The Christ.”
Any Christian would tell you that that was the beginning, not the ending, Poland.
Since this thread has a mention of Fast Food Nation: I saw it tonight, and man did I think it stank. Linklater is in way over his head, some of the dramatic moments are laugh-out-loud ludicrous, and really ugly cinematography. The movie’s greatest crime is wasting a strong cast by having them sit around and recite passages out of the book to each other. Criminy.
atm, I think the fifth spot goes to (like David) Pursuit of Happyness. The sort of feelgood crowdpleaser (and, probably) moneymaker with a sure to be nominated star in a big central performance.
Saw Bond and loved it. I think the studios that funded it are leaning more on international boxo than American. Bond is an internat’l character and has always done well overseas. In today’s Fox411 Friedman just blasted the $40M opening, and he should be ashamed. $40M is a good number. There’s just too much product coming online in the next month for my few dollars and the movie industry has got to find a way to stop bunching up all their movies in December.
Saw Bond and loved it. I think the studios that funded it are leaning more on international boxo than American. Bond is an internat’l character and has always done well overseas. In today’s Fox411 Friedman just blasted the $40M opening, and he should be ashamed. $40M is a good number. There’s just too much product coming online in the next month for my few dollars and the movie industry has got to find a way to stop bunching up all their movies in December.
Just read on the MCN blog that Craig got paid $1.5M for bond – tell me it aint so! Must be more to that…if not, he worked for slave wages.
“Fast Food Nation” is the arthouse version of “Gigli”. Too bad it doesn’t include Bennifer.
At least 2 AMC megaplexes near me will drop “FFN” Wednesday and pick up “For Your Consideration”.
Speaking of the coming weekend, Weinstein and MGM will regret taking “Bobby” wide on Thanksgiving Day. Every other national release this week is on Wednesday.
Fast Food Nation may not have Affleck, but it does have Ethan Hawke, a slumming Bruce Willis, and Esai Morales (what ever happened to him?). Plus no movie can be taken seriously when it stars Wilmer Valderrama.
Vanderrama was one of the more impressive cast members I thought.
Turns out Happy Feet ended something like $.8mil ahead of Casino Royale.
Speaking purely in terms of the ratio of investment to return — doesn’t “A Good Year” qualify as one of 2006’s biggest flops?
“Speaking purely in terms of the ratio of investment to return — doesn’t “A Good Year” qualify as one of 2006’s biggest flops?”
Definitely up there (though it might make up internationally)… I think The Ant Bully is definitely near the top.