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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

The Box Office To Come

For any movies now open, studios can, within about 15%, figure out with about 95% certainty what the rest of 2006 is going to look like for them. Black Christmas and Dreamgirls are really the only box office stories left to present themselves.
As it went last year, the Friday before X-Mas pretty much lays out a number that a film will perform close to on every day except the two down days of X-Mas Eve and X-Mas, and the unusually up day of the day after X-Mas. 2004 was unusual because that Friday was X-Mas Eve, but the Day before that, the Thursday, pretty much offered the same rule.
The extra day is a big advantage for films this year over last, since the day after the New Year

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17 Responses to “The Box Office To Come”

  1. jeffmcm says:

    ‘And this whole exercise reminds us, as facts so often do, that movies are most often

  2. James Leer says:

    “…studios can, within about 15%, figure out with about 95% certainty…”
    So, like, 85% then?

  3. EDouglas says:

    “Black Christmas could hurt We Are Marshall.”
    Wow, I’d love to hear that logic. I think the audience for an R-rated horror remake is completely different from a PG-rated football drama.

  4. jeffmcm says:

    I would guess the idea is that both are appealing to the teen market, although I would think that Eragon would be more hurt by BC.

  5. djk813 says:

    And the Hairspray splash screen teaser is so smart because (though I didn’t time it out) it seems like the person most likely to actually sell tickets gets the most screen time – Zac Efron, and they use the song from the musical that was used in one of the most popular dance numbers from So You Think You Can Dance. Though I haven’t actually seen the musical, the original movie (unlike the other recent big screen musical remakes), is a teen movie. It’s not a John Travolta – Michelle Pfeiffer movie, it’s an Amanda Bynes – Zac Efron movie, and a movie where the chubby girl gets the heartthrob. Hairspray will be out before High School Musical 2, and it will probably be promoted as High School Musical 1.5 as much as possible.

  6. jo conrad says:

    Wow, that NIGHT number is amazing considering the reviews. The 4 supposed oscar entries have shockingly poor per screen averages. They are all bombs by any measure. None will break 20K a screen for the weekend which matches them up with Good German at 15k per screen on 5 screens, rather than volver at 39k per screen on 5 screens and Little Miss Sunshine and Babel at 50k+ per screen on 7 screens. Nobody is touting Good German as an oscar contender, but everyone assumes Venus and Iwo Jima are contenders. I think this means they are both out of teh race.

  7. jo conrad says:

    Wow, that NIGHT number is amazing considering the reviews. The 4 supposed oscar entries have shockingly poor per screen averages. They are all bombs by any measure. None will break 20K a screen for the weekend which matches them up with Good German at 15k per screen on 5 screens, rather than volver at 39k per screen on 5 screens and Little Miss Sunshine and Babel at 50k+ per screen on 7 screens. Nobody is touting Good German as an oscar contender, but everyone assumes Venus and Iwo Jima are contenders. I think this means they are both out of teh race.

  8. Wrecktum says:

    No one is touting Venus as a best picture nominee.

  9. Spacesheik says:

    I am surprised WE ARE MARSHALL opened weaker than expected. That is one film I did not expect to flop – maybe people have ‘inspirational sports movie’ fatigue (i.e. INVINCIBLE, GRIDIRON etc).

  10. EDouglas says:

    It’s a shame because Marshall is better than Invicible and a LOT better than Gridiron Gang. You’re probably right that people are worn out from football movies, that and the excess amount of movies released in the last few weeks. I’m hoping it will pick up business next week though I heard Saturday was pretty bad.

  11. Tofu says:

    Opening up your sports movie on the same weekend as a Rocky flick is just asking for pain. Marshall has January/February release written all over itself.
    Ouch for Charlotte

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    Is it my imagination, or is Apocalypto (which I quite liked, BTW) dropping like a stone down a well? Really, really quickly, even quicker than its worst critics predicted?

  13. “Ouch for Charlotte

  14. jeffmcm says:

    Miracle is actually pretty good, although it’s also the most blatantly pro-American of that group.

  15. EDouglas says:

    I heard that one theatre in Atlanta has sold over 1100 advance tickets for Dreamgirls as of yesterday afternoon.

  16. ployp says:

    Guess all the public will be spared from Eragon 2 (whatever the book is called).

  17. martin says:

    You mean Eragon 2: The Two Towers?

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon