January 21, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

Night at the Museum and Stomp the Yard fought it out for weekend bragging rights with the films finishing the frame with respective estimated grosses of $12.9 million and $12.7 million. In another fiercely competitive frame The Hitcher had a relatively clear field as the sole new national release but wound up a disappointing fourth with $8.2 million. There were also a clutch of pictures that expanded on the heels of the Golden Globes and in advance of Tuesday’s Oscar announcements to fair results but overall business lagged behind 2006 levels.

Night at the Museum continued to be a global threat and on the domestic front saw its cume push past $200 million. Expectations had been high for the film though not quite as lofty as it’s playing. One can hear keyboards across town (and in Sundance) furiously working at concocting the inevitable sequel.

Last weekend’s leader Stomp the Yard was still pumping it out (several sources pegged it slightly ahead of Museum as the frame’s top attraction). The low budget youth oriented pic has emerged as an instant success in what is evolving as a slow starting year.

Considerable energy was put behind the launch of the thriller sequel The Hitcher and many trackers expected it to dominate the session. However, audiences generally opted for less intense fare and the film wound up the weekend with a below average theater average slightly shy of $2,900.

Weekend business kicked off with disappointing Friday results and an unexpected Saturday surge that should translate into revenues approaching $105 million. It represented a 20% dip from the three-day portion of last weekend’s holiday frame and a 15% decline from 2006 when the bow of Underworld: Evolution topped the charts with a $26.9 million gross.

At this juncture last year analysts were pessimistic about how awards would translate into box office for the perceived contenders. Capote was deemed the top beneficiary in a field that had largely spent its energy on the domestic front.

This year’s score card appears more promising though considerably short of a bounty. Saturday’s announcement ofLittle Miss Sunshine as the year’s best by the Producers Guild was a left field surprise and with the film largely finished theatrically everywhere; less than a boon for the industry. Dreamgirls has done a sterling job of presenting itself as the Oscar frontrunner but while business has been consistent one cannot help but wonder why reviews and kudos haven’t translated into a surge. Even more troubling is the decision of a slow roll out that cost it money during the holiday season and has yet to be made up in the march to Academy Awards.

The Queen, Golden Globe winner Babel, The Last King of Scotland and Letter from Iwo Jima were among the weekend expansions timed to Oscar announcements. While one cannot help but embrace surprises, the best picture lineup is apt to be comprised of Sunshine, Dreamgirls, The Queen, Babel and The Departed. In that quintet, only Dreamgirls has yet to step out in the international theatrical arena.

There wasn’t much new activity in the niches though the reissue of the Italian comedy Mafiosa received a warm start with close to a $30,000 gross from two Manhattan screens. Last year’s Russian Oscar submission The Italian was just OK with an opening weekend of $22,800 from four sites.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – January 19-21, 2007

Domestic Market Share: Jan 1-18, 2006

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