Weekend Estimates
Top Domestic Releases
Domestic Market Share

Night at the Museum remained the top draw for the New Year’s weekend with an estimated four-day gross of $46.6 million. The year ended with a surge, abetted by the holiday’s Sunday placement. It marked about a 7% hike from revenues on the last weekend of 2005 with final figures of approximately $208 million.

Museum emerged as the holiday offering that plays to all ages. A funhouse ride of slightly more than 100 minutes it almost doubled the box office its closest competition; charging to $100 million in its ninth day of release.

The Will Smith vehicle The Pursuit of Happyness ranked second with $24.7 million. It also exceeded $100 million domestically on New Year’s Day.

Dreamgirls is playing both the entertainment and prestige cards with aplomb. It finished third with $18.3 million and an impressive theater average of roughly $21,500. The other year end award contenders are either just entering the marketplace or remain in limited release.

While the hectic holiday frame skirted outright catastrophe, the lineup nonetheless had its fair share of surprises and disappointments. Overall the lack of sequels or franchise titles coupled with improved attendance has to be seen as a positive sign for the industry.

The flip side is that there remain too many films in the marketplace. That’s best typified by We Are Marshall, a film that’s received top marks from the critics but continues to be a third or fourth choice for viewers. It shows all the signs of disappearing theatrically before audiences get around to seeing it.

Among the surprises is The Good Shepherd which has become the “serious” movie of choice. It’s enjoying the sort of business that was anticipated for Blood Diamond, a more obvious candidate for popular crossover. Other unexpectedly potent titles include Rocky Balboa and Charlotte’s Web. The latter was a slow starter that was written off early by pundits but continues to play well with the family crowd.

The box office passed 2005 levels on Christmas day and should finish out at approximately $9.21 billion. That translates into a 3.5% boost from last year and, possibly, a marginal increase in admissions. The National Association of Theater Owners is already claiming a 1% boost in ticket sales but sources at several major chains say they expect admissions to be on par with last year.

The only title to open wide in the final week was a remake of the 1974 thriller Black Christmas. It grossed an OK $4.6 million after collecting about $7.1 million prior to the weekend.

The session also provided lots of encouraging news for a trio of limited release freshmen that are hoping to benefit from award season fervor. Both the Spanish-language Pan’s Labyrinth and the science-fiction allegory Children of Men recorded $40,000 plus averages from 17 and 16 screens respectively and the psychological drama Notes on a Scandal posted close to $26,000 average from 22 venues. Other year end offering in under the wire included Perfume: Story of a Murderer with $48,300 from three theaters;Miss Potter ringing up $12,800 from two screens and The Dead Girl grossing $8,100 from two sites.

Vying for awards and translating prestige for lucre is looking to be quite daunting entering the New Year. Both Little Children and The Last King of Scotland put aside fall expansions, confident that early awards and notice on top 10 lists would be better served by going wide in January. Add to the list Letters from Iwo Jima, Venus, The Painted Veil, Curse of the Golden Flower and The Good German and there’s little doubt that some of these films will get lost in the shuffle.

– Leonard Klady

Top Domestic Grossers: Jan 1 – Dec 28, 2006

Domestic Market Share: To December 28, 2006