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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Friday Estimates

I need to leave the computer right now, but I wanted to make this comment before leaving

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60 Responses to “Klady's Friday Estimates”

  1. Jimmy the Gent says:

    Anyone notice the screw up on the chart? I didn’t know Happyness just came out yesterday.

  2. abba_70s says:

    Wow, you just can’t go wrong with those urban hip hop movies can you? And I’ll bet they don’t cost a fortune either.

  3. Eddie says:

    I thought Primeval might do better. I guess they kinda snuck it in there though.

  4. Wrecktum says:

    I work in the biz and I’ve never heard of Stomp the Yard. Am I just getting old or is this weekend that pathetic?

  5. EDouglas says:

    “Am I just getting old or is this weekend that pathetic?”
    Both? 🙂

  6. The Carpetmuncher says:

    You’re old, Wreck! They’ve spent millions and millions on TV buys, the ads have flooded the TV. All over ESPN, MTV, etc. You must live in a closet! (Or a theatre!)

  7. Chicago48 says:

    DG is going to depend a lot on the supporting actor awards and technicals…as for why the count was so low – almost everyone has seen it…I’ve seen it twice, I talked to a bus driver who’s seen it twice and may see it a third time…so it’s still in a “niche” market. The gays, African-Americans, black women are the niche market and almost everyone in that market has seen it. There’s a lot of product out there competing and Notes on a Scandal, Children of Men are getting good buzz. That feel-good Holiday season is over.
    DG will depend heavily as it always has on the ‘buzz’ about Eddie and Jennifer’s performance.
    is Monday a “day-off” holiday? I have to work. And what is frontloading? Thanks all.

  8. Roxane says:

    Dreamgirls is already playing in its best theaters and clearly did not expand well.The film also should have expanded last weekend rather then wait for this weekend. Forget about Chicago. Dreamgirls is not going to catch The Departed (which returns to theaters this month).

  9. Josh Massey says:

    “Stomp the Yard” is huge exactly where it needs to be. I teach 5th grade, and my kids have not stopped talking about that film since the new year. (I work in a minority area, it should be said).

  10. Chicago48 says:

    I agree about the expansion, should have been last week. What to watchout for – does it have “legs” like the Pursuit of Happyness, which I’m surprised nobody is talking about. Got very long legs.

  11. Jonj says:

    I really liked “Children of Men.” It increased 300 theaters but fell almost 50 percent. With the buzz and all the talk surrounding the movie, I thought it would do a little better than that.

  12. Chicago48 says:

    Sorry for the double post – but it seems that DG still has a high theatre per screening amount…that’s encouraging. I’m a DG supporter, next the Departed, the others I’m not aware of.

  13. ivymike says:

    Any chance Stomp the Yard cut into Dreamgirls’ audience?…

  14. Chicago48 says:

    Sorry for the double post – but it seems that DG still has a high theatre per screening amount…that’s encouraging. I’m a DG supporter, next the Departed, the others I’m not aware of.

  15. EDouglas says:

    I wouldn’t worry about Dreamgirls too much. It just got hurt by Stomp the Yard’s opening in most of the same markets, and it’s likely to hold up well next week after winning the GG for Musical/Comedy (of course, if it doesn’t win that it’s *really* in trouble).

  16. Chicago48 says:

    Ivymike – Good guess! I thought Primeval or Freedom Writers (a very good movie BTW) would cut into DG audience.

  17. Tofu says:

    Hmmm, no Curse of the Golden Flower?
    Theaters are packed with features at the moment. These flicks are fighting for every last screen.

  18. EDouglas says:

    I read somewhere that Curse ended up with around $500-600k for the day, so it will probably make around $2.4 million for the weekend, pretty much doubles its box office, but not great. Might do better if it gets the Oscar foreign language nod.

  19. Chicago48 says:

    Re. Curse: After The house of flying daggers and crouching tiger, do you really think there’s much of an audience for those type of movies?
    IMO, the general public feels – seen one seen them all.

  20. Wrecktum says:

    “You’re old, Wreck! They’ve spent millions and millions on TV buys, the ads have flooded the TV. All over ESPN, MTV, etc. You must live in a closet! (Or a theatre!)”
    My primary excuse is that I haven’t seen many TV ads at all since I got Tivo three years ago. And I haven’t watched MTV since the early ’90s.
    Plus I live in a theatre. And I’m old.

  21. Cadavra says:

    I swear I’m not on a STUDIO 60 crusade, but has anyone seen even one review or piece of publicity for STOMP mentioning that Columbus Short is a regular on S-60 in a completely different type of role (low-key intellectual on the writing staff)?

  22. Lota says:

    geez wrecktum, get out do some dancin’ an steppin’ with those calves of yours (isn;t wrecktum the one with calves?)
    Stomp wasn’t so bad, actually not bad for a dancin movie, most of which I dislike. It was cliche and been done before but it wasn;t too cloying and way better than You got served.

  23. Lota says:

    well Studio 60 would might not draw the same crowd as Stomp, since Matthew Perry’s Friends-ness might be held against him. I hold it against him, heh heh.

  24. Jimmy the Gent says:

    Alpha Dog getting an unfair response by critics and the public. It’s a surprisingly gripping telling of senseless crime that happened in braod daylight. I’m a fan of this subgenre. Call it Suburban Kids Gone Psycho. Movies like Bully, Better Luck Tomorrow and Alpha Dog show great skill in their examinations of stupidity. It’s very tricky to show stupid behavior that casually leads to murder. Foster, Hirsch, and especially Timberlake give potent performaces. The scene of the actual murder has real power. It doesn’t play for laughs or exploitation. Critics can be real smug when they try to show they’re intellectually superior to the people portrayed on screen. Just because the characters do horrific and stupid things doesn’t deny them their humanity.

  25. Stomp the Yard‘s performance is about a surprising as Scorsese receiving an Oscar nomination this year. These movies always do well.
    Dreamgirls should perform strong throughout the weekend I think, especially MLK day.
    Primevil has pissed me off. Because of it, Greg McLean’s Rogue has apparently been pulled from it’s release schedule. I’d much rather see Rogue (one of my most anticipated titles of 2007) than this dumbass crocodile movie.

  26. EDouglas says:

    “Primevil has pissed me off. Because of it, Greg McLean’s Rogue has apparently been pulled from it’s release schedule. I’d much rather see Rogue (one of my most anticipated titles of 2007) than this dumbass crocodile movie.”
    There’s some weird irony about Disney rushing to get their crocodile movie out first, even though Rogue didn’t even have a trailer, so it was kind of doubtful that it was coming out next month.

  27. Aladdin Sane says:

    I saw Pan’s Labyrinth last night. Beautiful film.
    That’s all.

  28. EDouglas says:

    LOL! I hope y’all are watching Jake Gyllenhaal’s monologue on SNL…there’s some special irony for this blog. 🙂

  29. Lota says:

    well Jimmy, I don;t know if it’s smugness picking on alpha Dog. It seems to be a loosely “organized” movie based on disorganized people, all done in a very Serious way.
    “Just because the characters do horrific and stupid things doesn’t deny them their humanity.” wouldn;t be easy for me to agree with. That is exactly the kind of people I wouldn;t mind denying humanity to. They waste themselves and drag too many with them the longer they live. I never felt enough character dev to care.
    I remember there was a Detroit police chief who used to see “I’m always happy when assholes and bullets meet”
    A fine sentiment.
    I like Alpha males not Alpha Dogs. I couldn’t warm to them or the movie style.

  30. Hallick says:

    I can’t recall a more rancid and noxious time for movies than the one this Oscar season has inspired: “Dreamgirls” is only a movie for gays and black people; “Little Miss Sunshine” just rips off “Vacation” and if it wins it’ll be the worst Best Picture of all time; “The Queen” doesn’t belong in theaters cause its an uppidy TV movie; “Children of Men” doesn’t have any depth and people are just creaming their jeans over camera tricks; Scorsese sucks worse than “The Aviator”; Eastwood’s an asshole for posing a threat to Scorsese’s Oscar; Helen Mirren’s a bitch for winning everything; the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they’re black; Peter O’Toole is getting screwed because he can’t campaign; Peter O’Toole is getting an unfair advantage because he’s too sick to campaign; “Babel” isn’t worth nominating and it’s stealing space from “Pan’s Labyrinth” and “Children of Men” because the Academy doesn’t want to nominate more than one mexican at a time.
    And on and on this tabloid-style bullshit rolls until every movie-lover on earth has formed the most perfect circular firing squad. The Oscars have always been dumb, but this must the first year their existance was actually HARMFUL to the enjoyment of movies.

  31. JeffGP says:

    I think it’s a pretty safe bet to say The Departed will win Best Picture. The dust is settling here on the Dreamgirls hype (as B.O. displays). When all the hype has died, The Departed will be all that’s left, no matter how bloody.
    The Globes will reinvigorate the blandtastic Dreamgirls, and much to the supposed “gurus” surprise Babel will not win Best Picture – Drama. Though these same gurus are saying the same thing I have since mid-September, THE DEPARTED WILL WIN BEST PICTURE. The 8th or 9th best Scorsese picture will triump!

  32. martin says:

    I’ve been watching the Oscars for a long time, and I just don’t see Departed getting the big win. Dreamgirls is the clearest “Academy” movie, with Queen, Babel, and LMS a few steps behind. Departed perhaps even behind those. It will pick up Director likely and possibles like Actor, and Editing. If Departed wins, it’s because the field of choices is so b-level competitive that votes will be very thin.

  33. How many people are aware of this:
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=PCxQVMVX_y0
    Very strange indeed.
    I’m actually predicting The Queen to take BPD at the Globes, just like The Hours. Scorsese will take Director and Dreamgirls BPMC.

  34. JeffGP says:

    “If Departed wins, it’s because the field of choices is so b-level competitive that votes will be very thin.”
    You hit the nail on the head there. That is the motive behind my words. I think The Queen is more than b-level, but too small… and British.

  35. Tofu says:

    IMO, the general public feels – seen one seen them all.
    Posted by: Chicago48

    Oh, if the only general public ever felt that way.
    Was anyone surprised that Children of Men was more uplifting than Curse of the Golden Flower?

  36. Jonj says:

    A question for KamikazeCamelV2.0: What was on that youtube posting? When I went to check it out it had already been removed at the request of Paramount. I’m curious.

  37. EDouglas says:

    “You hit the nail on the head there. That is the motive behind my words. I think The Queen is more than b-level, but too small… and British.”
    Moreso than Shakespeare in Love? Now who was the studio who released that one again?

  38. ThriceDamned says:

    I just wanted to express my happiness with Casino Royale finally surpassing Die Another Day on Friday as the biggest Bond ever domestically.
    Now one of the best Bond movies has finally surpassed the absolute WORST Bond movie ever on all fronts (no words can truly express my loathing and hatred for DAD).

  39. Chicago48 says:

    To Hallick: “the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they’re black” — NOT FAIR. J-Hud gave a fabulous breakout performance considering she’d never done film before and Eddie Murphy was the scene stealer.
    “Peter O’Toole is getting screwed because he can’t campaign” – I never liked Peter O’Toole. In fact a lot of these Brit actors are overrated, including Richard Burton and Lawrence Olivier.
    “Peter O’Toole is getting an unfair advantage because he’s too sick to campaign” please god, don’t let Peter O’toole be a nom.

  40. Chicago48 says:

    What’s hurting DG boxo: Bootleg copies are everywhere. I’m telling you I’ve met more people who tell me they have either a studio copy or a home-made copy. If you go to Youtube you can see practically the complete pic…too bad that the studios can’t put a stop to bootleg.
    I just think this is a slow season and in Chgo/midwest, we have a storm coming, so people are going to stay home. We’ve been blessed with good weather until today. The whole boxo will be down because of weather.

  41. Joe Leydon says:

    Chicago: You may have a point. I am in Dallas this weekend, and they’re worried about ice storms here. I can only imagine what the weather is like north of here.

  42. Chicago48 says:

    As for Peter O’toole and his campaign – isn’t it a little late, the nom ballots went out last week and he just now decides to campaign?

  43. ployp says:

    I was aware of Stomp the Yard until I saw the chart and I’m not old. I need to watch TV.

  44. Direwolf says:

    I meant to say…
    I saw Pan’s Labryinth last night. Beautiful film.
    —Aladdin Sane
    Me too.

  45. Ju-osh says:

    A Strictly Subjective Question:
    Would you say Pan’s is better than The Devil’s Backbone?
    Why?

  46. MarkVH says:

    I finally saw Pan’s last night as well, and it’s a fucking masterpiece. Ju-osh, it’s silly to compare the two films, but I think it’s safe to say that The Devil’s Backbone was a warm-up for this, which is easily del Toro’s most completely realized vision. I’ve never been fully on the del Toro bandwagon – it always seemed like his imagination and storytelling skills were fighting for supremacy. But here he’s finally found a way to seamlessly weave the two, and it’s akin to watching a young, talented baseball pitcher, who you always knew would accomplish great things at some point, finally emerge and and toss a perfect game. Beautiful, beautiful film – best of the year as far as I’m concerned.

  47. EDouglas says:

    I like The Devil’s Backbone better… Pan’s Labyrinth looks better and is a better production, but I like the story and characters better in DB. It really feels as if it’s set during the times whereas Pan’s really feels like a movie.. both are great, but DB is one of my all-time faves and Pan’s is just an amazing achievment in terms of the filmmaking. (I think DB made me a fan of Del Toro, either that or Blade 2)

  48. EDouglas says:

    Adding to the above statement, the first time I went to see DB, I had almost no expectations except from the trailer, while I had HUGE expectations for PL and though I’ve seen it three times, it’s still not my favorite movie…just too dark and too many unoriginal ideas in terms of the fantasy.

  49. Aladdin Sane says:

    I think that The Devil’s Backbone is a wonderful film, and I’ve seen it a few times. I’ve only seen Pan’s Labyrinth once, and I’m feeling that I prefer it to DB. Of course, we’ll see what repeat viewings are like.
    I was worried when I saw Pan’s, because of the months of hype since Cannes. I knew what happened, thanks to some jerks online who didn’t put up any spoiler warnings in comment sections on blogs (it was probably here), so I was worried the overall impact may be lessened. It wasn’t.
    Not sure how many original ideas are left for fantasy Edouglas. There are usually only new ideas for telling old stories…Del Toro breathes new life into them.
    I’m gonna try to see it again next weekend though. It definitely is something I want to catch at least once more on the big screen. Can’t say that about most films these days.

  50. Hallick says:

    “To Hallick: “the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they’re black” — NOT FAIR. J-Hud gave a fabulous breakout performance considering she’d never done film before and Eddie Murphy was the scene stealer.”
    Totally not fair, but it was in the air for a while. I was just listing a sample of the carnage in this “my film’s the best and all of yours SUCK” season. But it was probably still unfair for me to throw that one out there since I haven’t heard anything that over the top for a few months (now it’s just “Dreamgirls is only making money off black and gay people”).

  51. EDouglas says:

    “Not sure how many original ideas are left for fantasy Edouglas.”
    True. I felt the same way when I read the first Harry Potter book and saw the movie, so it’s a tough sell for me. A good ghost story on the other hand.. I’m there.

  52. qwiggles says:

    “And if the film does not continue to perform at a very high level, then it does become a multi-horse race and the dynamic changes

  53. Jonj, it was the “And I Am Telling You” sequence from Dreamgirls. There was also “Dreamgirls”, “Listen” and “One Night Only” that I could see on there, but I’m sure there were others. They were from a DIVX copy of the movie because it had the little logo in the corner.

  54. jeffmcm says:

    Someone’s still making DivX discs?

  55. Hallick says:

    “Someone’s still making DivX discs?”
    I dunno, but that logo is in the corner of all the best pirated(?) Korean movies on YouTube.

  56. Eric says:

    Jeff, you might be thinking of the Circuit City-backed DIVX format that died a quick, deserved death. Those were the discs that you bought for four or five bucks that could only be watched for a certain amount of time.
    I suspect Camel was talking about the DivX video codec, which seems to be the format of choice for the BitTorrent-using pirate crowd.

  57. Chicago48 says:

    Somebody just posted on IMDB boards that they asked for DG tickets and were given Stomp the Yard tix. They reported it to the Usher and had the tix rewritten.
    Conspiracy?

  58. Chicago48 says:

    Hmm..sorry if this is a double post —
    On the IMDB boards someone just reported they and a group asked for DG tickets and were given Stomp the Yard tix.
    Conspiracy?

  59. LOL.
    And, yes, Eric is right about DivX

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon