By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com
Ring In The New …
January 7, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share
Night at the Museum exacted a cinematic hat trick, remaining the weekend top grosser with an estimated $24.1 million. The New Year arrived with a trio of freshmen releases that scored good to fair openings while holdover titles generally withstood the transition well. Overall it added up to a slight increase from 2006 revenues.
The biggest of the new entries was Freedom Writers, a distaff To Sir with Love repping a genre that generally has sure-fire appeal. Its $9.8 million tally ranked 4th overall. Two rungs down the animated Happily N’Ever After – a Cinderella spoof that follows in the steps of Hoodwinked’s jab at Little Red Riding Hood – had passable returns of $6.7 million.
Yet to make a smooth transition from comedy stages to the screen, Cedric the Entertainer inCode Name: The Cleaner eked out $4.3 million to finish 12th on the roster. The session also bowed Thr3e a thriller targeted at the niche Christian market that passed on a warm embrace with a tepid $770,000 gross.
The weekend also saw a bold stepped up expansion of the critical hit Children of Men that worked effectively. It slotted third with $10.3 million and an $8,530 screen average. More modest expansions were accorded such award contenders as Notes on a Scandal, Perfume: Story of a Murdererand Miss Potter.
While the jury’s still out on the unconventional strategy of Dreamgirls (it adds 1,000 theaters next week), industry insiders are making noises about how millions were left on the table as a result of its limited exposure during the holidays. The sense is that it didn’t require critical acclaim to establish its wide popularity.
The final numbers of 2006 (see attached chart) rang up $9.23 billion for a modest 3.8% boost from the prior calendar and no more than a flutter of difference in actual admissions. Sony enjoyed market share bragging rights but arguably third ranked Fox had the most impressive year with two very big over-performers in The Devil Wears Prada and Borat.
Last summer there were good indications that all six majors would each record $1 billion in domestic ticket sales but Paramount just missed the cut (the Dreamgirls factor?) and Universal had a final quarter that proved to be a commercial bust.
The studio specialty wings with the exception of Fox Searchlight were struggling to make a difference and most fell well below a 1% market share. While that has worked well for Sony Classics, it doesn’t fit the template for Warner Independent, Miramax or the future aspirations of Paramount Classics.
Lions Gate continues as the sole independent with better than niche status. The prospect that the Weinstein Company would rise out of the ashes of Miramax certainly has not occurred in part as a result of its distribution marriage to MGM. However, even when one incorporates that slate into the equation the picture fails to brighten or suggest the feisty qualities of shrewd acquisitors and adroit marketers of its past legacy.
Overall, the numbers and what they represent fall short of conveying anything other than stasis. Whatever the lessons of 2006, both the successes and mistakes of its reign appear doomed to be repeated.
Weekend Estimates – January 5 – 7, 2007
Title |
Distributor
|
Gross (averag
|
% chang
|
Theater
|
Cume
|
Night at the Museum |
Fox
|
24.1 (6,470)
|
-34%
|
3730
|
164.2
|
The Pursuit of Happyness |
Sony
|
13.2 (4,370)
|
-32%
|
3027
|
124.3
|
Children of Men |
Uni
|
10.3 (8,530)
|
–
|
1209
|
11.9
|
Freedom Writers |
Par
|
9.8 (7,210)
|
–
|
1360
|
9.8
|
Dreamgirls |
Par
|
8.8 (10,370)
|
-37%
|
852
|
54.5
|
Happily Never After |
Lions Gate
|
6.7 (2,820)
|
–
|
2381
|
6.7
|
Charlotte’s Web |
Par
|
6.6 (1,990)
|
-44%
|
3303
|
66.9
|
The Good Shepherd |
Uni
|
6.6 (2,920)
|
-40%
|
2250
|
48.5
|
Rocky Balboa |
MGM
|
6.3 (2,080)
|
-41%
|
3018
|
60.9
|
We Are Marshall |
WB
|
5.2 (2,070)
|
-36%
|
2502
|
35.5
|
Eragon |
Fox
|
4.5 (1,730)
|
-45%
|
2625
|
66.7
|
Code Name: The Cleaner |
New Line
|
4.3 (2,490)
|
–
|
1736
|
4.3
|
The Holiday |
Sony
|
4.1 (1,510)
|
-39%
|
2698
|
59.1
|
Happy Feet |
WB
|
3.9 (1,530)
|
-49%
|
2565
|
185.3
|
Blood Diamond |
WB
|
3.8 (1,980)
|
-22%
|
1920
|
43.9
|
Casino Royale |
Sony
|
3.1 (2,420)
|
-33%
|
1266
|
159.9
|
Black Christmas |
MGM
|
1.9 (1,240)
|
-50%
|
1504
|
15.3
|
Apocalypto |
BV
|
1.6 (1,730)
|
-52%
|
903
|
47.1
|
Notes on a Scandal |
Searchlight
|
1.1 (11,830)
|
163%
|
93
|
2
|
The Queen |
Miramax
|
1.0 (3,190)
|
10%
|
323
|
29.9
|
Thr3e |
Bigger Pic
|
.77 (1,680)
|
458
|
0.77
|
|
Pan’s Labyrinth |
Picturehouse
|
.72 (16,360)
|
27%
|
44
|
1.8
|
Volver |
Sony Class/S
|
.61 (4,840)
|
-2%
|
126
|
6.5
|
Perfume |
Par
|
.59 (2,110)
|
–
|
280
|
0.7
|
The Painted Veil |
WIP
|
.51 (7,080)
|
40%
|
72
|
1.3
|
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) |
$130.10
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
|
% Change (Last Year) |
–
|
5%
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
% Change (Last Week) |
–
|
-17%
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
Also debuting/expanding | |||||
Curse of the Golden Flower |
Sony Classics
|
.36 (5,480)
|
-19%
|
66
|
2.2
|
Little Children |
New Line
|
.35 (3,240)
|
123%
|
103
|
3
|
Miss Potter |
MGM
|
.12 (4,540)
|
1080%
|
26
|
0.14
|
The Good German |
WB
|
81,000 (4,050)
|
-30%
|
20
|
0.63
|
Letter from Iwo Jima |
WB
|
78,000 (15,600)
|
-11%
|
5
|
0.47
|
Domestic Market Share: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2006
Distributor (releases) |
Gross
|
Percentage
|
% Chang
|
Rank ’05
|
Sony (33) |
1718.1
|
18.60%
|
87%
|
5
|
Buena Vista (25) |
1474.4
|
16.00%
|
60%
|
4
|
Fox (28) |
1398.6
|
15.20%
|
3%
|
2
|
Warner Bros. (25) |
1065.9
|
11.60%
|
-23%
|
1
|
Paramount (18) |
949.9
|
10.30%
|
15%
|
6
|
Universal (21) |
816.6
|
8.90%
|
-19%
|
3
|
Lions Gate (18) |
333.8
|
3.60%
|
17%
|
10
|
New Line (13) |
253.2
|
2.70%
|
-40%
|
7
|
Weinstein Co. (14) |
226.5
|
2.40%
|
383%
|
17
|
Focus (13) |
184.8
|
2.00%
|
15%
|
12
|
MGM (11) |
166.8
|
1.80%
|
-9%
|
11
|
Fox Searchlight (14) |
165.6
|
1.80%
|
62%
|
14
|
Sony Classics (23) |
59.3
|
0.60%
|
-6%
|
15
|
FreeStyle (9) |
56
|
0.60%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Other * (290) |
361.6
|
3.90%
|
-9%
|
–
|
– |
9231.1
|
100.00%
|
3.80%
|
–
|
* DreamWorks ranked seventh; Miramax ninth in 2005 |