Klady's Friday Estimates
There is so much to say today and so little time.
Ghost screenings worked out burningly well for Ghost Rider.
Terabithia
April 19, 2024
Box Office
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Three things:
1. That Terabithia number strikes me as pretty darn good for a no-star vehicle, especially given that it’ll play through the whole 3 day weekend, and get a nice Saturday bump.
2. The performance of Daddy’s Little Girls suggests that “Madea” is the franchise, not “Tyler Perry.”
3. Breach seems to have been badly mishandled. Why release it against 4 other big movies rather than a week or so earlier when it could have had the marketplace to itself?
The Terabithia number is awesome. Compare to other Disney films released in the same timeframe in the past few years. What’s Poland smoking?
Might want to check your numbers, David…. as said above, $6 million for Terabithia opening day is AMAZING… it’ll end up somewhere around $25 million for the weekend, which isn’t bad for a Narnia rip-off. Also, you can’t say that a 57% Friday-to-Friday for Norbit can be a good thing and I still think it will be down at least 50% for the weekend even with 4 days instead of 3. It got killed by the other offerings.
Ed, seems like you know nothing about Terabithia if you’re calling it a Narnia rip. Seriously.
Whether or not it actually is a Narnia rip (my understanding and memory of the book is that it’s not), it certainly has been marketed as a Narnia rip.
Yeah, I think a lot of DP’s comments here are strange. Bridge will wind up with, what, $20 mil in three days? Plus some decent Monday school’s-out coin? That’s not biting the dust. That’s a better opening than the talking-animals-with-celeb-voices-fest of Charlotte’s Web (which is more of a brand name, too), which wound up with $80 mil or so regardless. I’m not saying Bridge will have that kind of star power, but could you really ask for a much better start??
Music & Lyrics is doing OK, too; I did think it would be doing a lot better given Barrymore and Grant in their comfort zone, but it’s not a disaster. It’s gonna have like $12 million through Sunday, maybe $15 mil or so after Monday, and almost $20 mil for the five-days… unspectacular, but it should turn a profit, right?
In retrospect, the weekend *before* Valentine’s Day probably could’ve really helped (it doesn’t seem like it has such a big audience overlap with Norbit).
Because I Said So — as DP pointed out last week, so I’m surprised he’s turning on it now — is doing pretty well for something that is (he said apparently; I say, yes, actually) pretty awful. As he said, it speaks more to that audience being underserved than any real desire for that particular movie… but even so, I’d think they’d be happy to get their $40 million from that one considering how crummy it is.
Even Breach is actually doing a bit better than I would’ve figured. $7-8 mil for the three days? I really would’ve guessed around 5. (I’ll be seeing it tonight, though, because the reviews have been so strong.)
Er, RE: Charlotte’s Web/Bridge, I meant “staying power,” not “star power.”
Terabithia pulled in a little more than the Eight Below did on the same release date a year ago. If that comp holds it will come in near the upper $30s for the four day.
Unless Disney was expecting this to be a $150 million to $200 million film, which I highly doubt, I would also call this a good start.
Terabithia grossed $81 million domestically. Production budget according to Mojo was $40 million. Terabithia looks like it cost a lot more. So it won’t be as profitable but for the Disney marketing and merchandising machine if it gets near $100 million it is should be a contributor to profits.
By this point, what does it matter how Terabithia’s been marketed? The movies’ been released, so comments about it should be based on the substance of the film itself, not the marketing campaign.
Especially comments made by a “journalist” like EDouglas. Go to more press screenings, Eric. Maybe you’ll learn something.
Hey Eric. I just read your “Weekend Warrior” comments on Terabithia. You are sure wrong about everything, aren’t you? Press screenings and press kits could possibly help with your naivety, but, considering how you snidely called Eight Below (one of my favorite films of 2006) “Snow Dogs” (one of the worst movies of that decade), clearly we can’t expect you to understand these types of films very well.
On the Oscar topic….
I saw Flags on DVD and it makes feel even stronger that Letters would get my vote for Best Pic. Letters should stand on its own but I found Flags to be very average and the fact that similar material could be done so much better in Letters made me apperciate it even more.
I also saw Infernal Affairs on DVD. It is really great. As far as The Departed goes, I was surprised by how closely Marty held to the original. Of course there were some major changes but there were many scenes that were virtually identical or very similar. I haven’t watched enough remakes carefully enough to know how common this is. I wonder if voters knew how closely Departed tracked IA if it would hurt its chances. Not my area of expertise so I’m interested in comments.
wow. but Terebithia’s est is fantastic. maybe all the ads on kids cable sunk in. Here I’m trying to watch Foster’s Home and Spongebob and I was hit with ads relentlessly. I have the commercial memorized. I suppose I will go see it this week since I like fantasy.
if Terebithia hit dust DPo it’s gold dust dude. Those one-liners are too Roeper-esque…I prefer your extended analysis better.
Wrecktum, I think his first name is Edward, not Eric. I just mention it because it caught my eye as I skimmed the thread, for obvious reasons.
Sorry. I meant Edward. Didn’t mean to confuse.
Oops, I meant to type that Terabithia was tracking slighty ahead of Eight Below and if that holds it would be upper $20s for the 4 day. Not only can’t I type but I can’t edit either!
Night at the Meusuem is no great shakes, but at least it isn’t a shitty movie with stills of a man in latex fat drag hanging out of the gut of his bikini briefs all over the press. If Hollywood is going to make movies that are shitty, at least make ones that aren’t grotesque at the most fleeting glance. Like Pink Panther. Beyonce is a fetching looking dress. Scenic locales of Europe. The movie may be a piece of crap, but at least isn’t one that leaves a stain.
“Whether or not it actually is a Narnia rip (my understanding and memory of the book is that it’s not), it certainly has been marketed as a Narnia rip.”
That’s what I meant to say. Put it this way, I should have been the exact right age to read this book when it first came out and I don’t remember it.
Wrecktum, you battling against jeffmcm for some kind of “Asshole of the Year” award? You two should really pace yourselves… it’s not even March yet. To clear things up:
1.) My name’s not Eric.
2.) I’d be able to base my comments on seeing the movie if I had actually had a chance to see it but Disney only offers one screening of all their movies for critics, and I tend to have my weeknights booked sometimes weeks in advance. When you’re not given enough chances to see a movie before writing about it, then you go by what you have. (And this has always been the case with my column, which you might know if you’ve read it for the five years I’ve been doing.) Disney and Walden Media has done very little to try to dissuade any Narnia comparisons with their decisions on the movie.
3. The “Snow Dogs” line was obviously a joke that anyone who reads my column regularly would have gotten. Sorry that you didn’t understand the humor in it.
The point is that Terabithia is doing much better than most people (not just me) expected and $6 million opening day for it is better than many other movies that have opened this year.
Edouglas, what’s your beef with me? I don’t remember any specific arguments with you any time recently.
And why are you assuming that people here read your column? Probably not a wise idea if people aren’t getting your references.
To Direwolf: Checkout Ew’s talk with three Oscar members about their ballot. Whoa! The screenwriter is voting for LMS and for best actress – Kate Winslet. Can we say ‘upset’?
One person votes for Winslet and we’re supposed to start expecting an upset? If it happens it’ll be the biggest Oscar shock… ever? I dunno. But, for now, I think it’s safe to say that Mirren shouldn’t have an issue with writing a speech, making a spot on her mantle and writing individual thank you notes to send out the day after.
The number for Terabithia looks pretty good. If it has the same weekend multiplier as Eight Below it’s looking at a $30mil weekend.
Anyone else notice the correlation between Ghost Rider and Daredevil? Very similar opening numbers.
LOL@Hannibal Rising. Serves them right for casting a french dude and making a shitty movie. If someone had told me a few years back that Peter Webber would follow up Girl with a Pearl Earring with a Hannibal prequel I’d question their logic wholeheartedly. Shame, Webber, Shame.
Terebithia was made for 30. Walden is very happy, especially since Charlotte’s Web cost 90.
I don’t Edouglas’ column either, that rant of his was weird.
Wow,,, 3 Academy members… that’s like… well, a morning at Starbucks…
Which Starbucks is that?
I get the feeling that EW probably interviews multiple Academy members, and then chooses three that give the best sound bites – am I correct in thinking so?
To Aladdin: you may be right. One was for Kinko(?) best supporting and one was for Jennifer best supporting. I just don’t see Rinko/kinko giving an acceptance speech, the woman can’t speak English and she hasn’t campaigned very well.
Also re Terabitha – no-name actors…ditto for Hannibal Rising…are we seeing a trend here…maybe studios are more willing NOT to put a name star over the credits. Make it cheaper and get better returns?
“Edouglas, what’s your beef with me? I don’t remember any specific arguments with you any time recently.”
jeffmcm, I have absolutely no beef with you, believe it or not, but I do find your comments here amusing, since 9 times out of 10, they’re either snarky, cynical or just plain negative. You have a lot of interesting ideas and viewpoints, but you do seem to like getting people annoyed at you, hence the comment re: AofY. (I somehow doubt you’ll ever beat lifetime recipient Spam Dooley though.)
I don’t get how a potential $9 million weekend for a Chris Cooper/Ryan Phillippe drama can be considered anything but great.
Well, Edouglas, it’s partially mutual.
Even Spam Dooley wasn’t as bad as Hicksville though, with his multiple personalities.
I guess the lesson here is that I should read Mr. Edward Douglas’ column more often. Will do.