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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Sunday Estimates by Klady

Wow

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20 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Chicago48 says:

    [Wow! am I first?]
    “Letters From Iwo Jima continues to do the shite business that Warners always knew it would. Great arthouse movie. It would have done more if sold like The Queen, but the only reason to put the film in December was Oscar and Oscar they got nodded by.”
    Because of letters, which should have been released in 2007 it’s regular schedule, DG was shut out of best picture. and Letters has won NADA, NOTHING! exc. the Globe award. I see Clint all over late night trying to drum up business and buzz, but it aint happening this year Clint.
    Boo!
    POH is the sleeper…and it should have garnered a best supporting for Jaden Smith – BTW, I’m on a campaign to have a “Breakthrough Best Child Actor” category at the Oscars. Don’t put child against adult Oscar – don’t!

  2. Tofu says:

    While you’re at it, give us a “Best Ensemble” award so we don’t have to get drowned in all of these ME ME ME showboating features in December.
    And kill the best short ANYTHING awards.
    Nice to see most of the contenders holding their own this season.

  3. marychan says:

    This is wrong.
    We can’t blame MGM for the opening of “Hannibal Rising”
    1. MGM only releases this movie in theaters. But this movie is marketed/promoted by Weinstein Co., not MGM, so Weinstein Co. can only blame themselves for the failure of “Hannibal Rising”
    At least, MGM can still get 3003 theates to show this movie; they did well job to release this movie.
    2. “Opening weekend has nothing to do with quality, now in the text message age, same as ever”
    No for any movies.
    For “Norbit”, its target audience wouldn’t be likely to read movie reviews. For “Hannibal Rising”, its target audience do read the movie reviews.

  4. EDouglas says:

    I find my self agreeing with David today, which I’m perfectly fine with. I really don’t think that the stupidity of Norbit is going to have much of an effect on Eddie’s Oscar chances though, because I’m sure every single member of the Academy has at one point done something to earn a buck or because they knew it would make money. It just keeps Eddie in the limelight for two more weeks as they try to figure out who to vote for.
    Heck, the fact that Helen Mirren is a frontrunner less than a year after having sex with Cuba Gooding Jr. in Shadowboxer shows how forgiving and forgetful awards can be.

  5. David Poland says:

    Puh-leeze, Marychan… no one went to Hannibal (the last one) because of reviews. 37% on the Tomato Rating. $58 million opening.
    Yes, there are other variables there. But HR was a straight horror/thriller sell… same as any Screen Gems movie, but with more history. And on that basis, this was a failure.
    If they were making Hannibal Rising relying on critics, they wouldn’t have made it at all.

  6. jeffmcm says:

    The only reason anyone is saying that Dreamgirls is ‘underperforming’ at the box office is because of how overhyped it was for months and months especially in terms of awards consideration. Take all of that away and it has done perfectly well for itself.
    Hannibal Rising couldn’t have cost too much – this opening seems on par with other horror/thrillers with no stars in it, I can’t imagine they really expected it to do Hannibal ’01 business.
    Who’s the second man in the ‘two man show’ that is Pursuit of Happyness, Jaden?

  7. James Leer says:

    Yes.
    “For all the media hype around Children of Men, the gross is still fighting to get to $35 million, proving again the impotency and contrarian nature of the movie media”…so you’re saying that the movie media’s endorsement of “Children of Men” is a contrarian fraud? Couldn’t just be because they liked the movie, could it?
    “Rescue Dawn” got bumped. It’s coming out at the end of summer.

  8. martin says:

    Dreamgirls opened with numbers that suggested more than it is likely to finish with. Yet if you said a yr ago that Dreamgirls would get 8 Oscar noms and make $110 mill, I suspect most would consider that good.

  9. marychan says:

    The Weinstein Co. paid $0 to acquire “Hannibal Rising”, so The Weinstein Co. will make profit on this movie.
    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i9c93a087253bf968176527d7994d786e
    [The film was produced by Dino De Laurentiis and marketed heavily in the U.S. by the Weinsteins. Harvey Weinstein maintained the film, for which his company paid nothing upfront, will be profitable for the indie concern. “We are pleased with the release strategy for ‘Hannibal Rising,’ which will be a profitable film for TWC,” he said.]

  10. alero says:

    Doesn’t part of the international sales go to Paramount?

  11. EthanG says:

    I think an underreported story recently has been how much power the African-American audience has in the film industry and how many of this year’s succesful (in terms of bo) films target an urban audience…
    *The biggest film of the year right now is Stomp the Yard which has exceeded expectations wildly with $60 million
    *Norbit will likely knock Stomp from its perch, and could very well top $100 million(!)
    *Dreamgirls is approaching $100 million
    *Freedom Writers, a film about urban innery city youth has taken in $35 million, well above expectations
    *Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls is tracking very well this week, especially since it has direct comp. in both Norbit and Music and Lyrics
    Just thought Id throw all that out there….
    Also Pan’s Labyrinth may be able to top Amelie at the rate it is going. That would make it the 2nd biggest non-martial arts foreign language movie ever. (not counting Gibson’s American flicks)

  12. David Poland says:

    Never said anything about fraud, Leer. Nor did I suggest that critical feelings were untrue in any way.
    But the density and intensity of the wave was, yes, likely increased by the sense that it was a movie in commercial trouble. And you pulled one thing out of the context of the sentence. Impotency first… contrarian nature second.
    But if you feel compelled to turn that into “fraud,” I suppose it makes it clearer why you get so angry with me. You need to buy some gray, Leer. If I want to say “fraud,” I am perfectly capable of writing, “fraud.”

  13. jeffmcm says:

    Hang on, hopefully without getting drawn into this discussion, what does this mean”
    “You need to buy some gray”
    is this something the kids are saying? Like Ghost Riding the Whip?

  14. “And kill the best short ANYTHING awards.”
    Ugh. That’s stupid. Why should they do that?
    Hannibal Rising probably failed for a number of reasons. There’s no Anthony Hopkins (despite what the advertising suggested), nobody’s read the book, it looked like a silly teen slasher flick, it was a PREQUEL (why do they still make prequels? Nobody seems to go to them!) etc. Plus, was anybody else wondering why young Hannibal was french?
    Didn’t Blood Diamond open to, like, $8mil? If it did then $55mil is pretty darn good. It could have easily died after $30mil or less. I’m not defending the movie, but I bet the studio is happier with that total and five oscar nods. DVD awaits.
    I saw The Last King of Scotland today. I was surprised to find myself actually really disliking it by the end. I just wanted everybody to stop screaming and to stop the editor from cutting so much and stop the camera was moving everywhere. Maybe it was the cinema I was in but god that score was so extremely overbearing. And the scenes at the end were just not pleasant. The whole experience wasn’t pleasant. Whitaker was great though.
    Strangely, I saw Breaking and Entering today as well and liked it much much more than I anticipated. It’s a shame that movie’s release was murdered. Law was the best he’s ever been and it was a pleasure to see Minghella direct so intimately. Oh well.

  15. Hopscotch says:

    I wasn’t crazy about Scotland as a whole either, but Whitaker’s performance is undeniably stirring and mezmerizing to watch.
    The continue business of “Night at the Museum” is really amazing, I’ve heard it’s awful, but man that is some cume.
    I first saw the “Norbit” trailer in front of “Borat” and literally half the audience was laughing, the other half queezing. It’s one of those movies I guess. And I’m sure teens thought it’d be funny. I’d rather gouge my eyes out.
    Because I Said So, for even a dopey, stupid romantic comedy, was dreadful. I felt depressed leaving the theater.

  16. marychan says:

    Yes, the box office leg of BLOOD DIAMOND is excellent. With foreign box-office and worldwide DVD sales, Warner should make profit on this movie.
    Here is what boxofficemojo.com talks about it.
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2248&p=.htm
    [Meanwhile, the Academy Award-nominated pictures generally had minimal drop-offs, maintaining the same low levels as last weekend. Underrated among this bunch is Blood Diamond. After a soft $8.6 million opening last December, it’s hung around despite severe theater losses and its total inched past $55 million, which is higher than the movie that nearly doubled its debut on the same weekend, Apocalypto. ]

  17. Tofu says:

    Camel: Best Documentary Short Subject? Best Animated Short Film? Best Live Action Short Film?
    Time and effort that could be used on other awards like ensemble, more animation nominations, more, makeup nominations, and more visual effects nominations. Three nominations per category in any of these fields is the real joke here.
    If one is to praise Blood Diamond for legs, than one needs to praise Good Shepherd as well. Both averaged $4000+ per theater opening weekend, and both opening weekends only accounted for 14-16% of the final domestic gross.

  18. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Last King of Scotland” and “Notes on a Scandal” are playing megaplex/arthouse/upmarket, thus Fox has its bases covered. Same for “Iwo Jima” and WB.
    Speaking of WB they are definitely throwing away theatrical revenue by taking “The Departed” to DVD so early. Regal Cinemas — the largest US theater operator — pulled the film chainwide this week because of the early DVD release.
    As for “Venus”? It just opened in my area but I passed when I saw that the poster was name-checking a Julia Roberts movie.

  19. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, you’re a day behind schedule. What happened?
    Venus is a pretty good movie and well worth seeing for Peter O’Toole’s performance. Your insistence on judging movies by their marketing campaigns (or rather, by a single marketing trait) is lame-brained.

  20. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    “Time and effort that could be used on other awards like ensemble, more animation nominations, more, makeup nominations, and more visual effects nominations. Three nominations per category in any of these fields is the real joke here.”
    Make-Up – For this they need to realise that it’s not just prosthetics, but actual make-up as well as hair. Why weren’t The Devil Wears Prada, Marie Antoinette and The Queen amongst the semi-finalist?
    Visual Effects – Three is sufficient. I mean, do we really want more movies like Poseidon to be known as Academy Award Nominees.
    Animation – Okay, so this year there were fifteen Animated films released. Do one third really need to be nominated? No. Not at all. I mean, stuff like Shark Tale?! Ugh. This year there were probably four worthy of being an Oscar nominee (the three that were nommed and Over the Hedge). But if a field of 300 titles must be wittled down to five, why should a field of 15 too? That’s crazy.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon