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David Poland

By David Poland

Summer Preview

I do expect this to be the first $4 billion summer in history, beating the 2004 best ever.
We have never had more than two $300 million in a summer before. I expect three this year.
If my estimates are right, this could be the first summer with six $200 million-plus movies. We have had a few summers with five $200 million-plus movies in a summer before. But again, by my estimates this summer’s Top 10 will gross about 20% more domestically than ever before in the history of summer exhibition… nearly $2.5 billion.
But what will really be interesting is the second wave, not the Big Three. Evan Almighty will be a big family film, more so than Bruce Almighty, which sold itself with T&A jokes. How big can Ratatouille be after Shrek 3 sucks the market dry and it faces Evan, too?
How big will Transformers be? Will any adults go? And how will they do with Harry Potter opening one week later? The same fate that War of the Worlds faced with Fantastic Four smacking it down in weekend two by a 46% margin could happen again.

The rest…

And the chart

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167 Responses to “Summer Preview”

  1. Kambei says:

    How great would it be if Herzog could have a big hit with “Rescue Dawn”? It’s ultimately a feel-good, prisoner-of-war escape flick with impressive acting, but maybe a bit unlikely, alas.

  2. seattlemoviegoer says:

    your chart put THE SIMPSONS at a surprisingly low $70 million overall estimate. i’m pretty sure this one will go through the roof. i could see $70 million for the first weekend alone.

  3. Melquiades says:

    For some reason, I think Pirates might not be the top film this year. I think we’re in for a lot of disappointments, gross-wise, though the sheer number of big films will probably still make it a record-breaking summer.
    I see Shrek or Spider-Man 3 taking the title when all is said and done.

  4. Don Murphy says:

    You underestimate the fan base- every male under 38 years of age grew up with Transformers as their latchkey mom. You are at least $70m off. Of course, I am not sure what a chart like this offers, except an opportunity for frustrated film students like jeffmcm to go nya nya to you in September.

  5. Eric says:

    I think the real interest in something like Transformers is overestimated. Sure, there’s a group of hardcore fans that really, really care. But just because the rest of us watched the cartoon twenty years ago doesn’t necessarily mean we’re interested in a movie now.
    That said, I have nothing against it. I’ll be perfectly happy if it’s a good movie and makes a fortune. But it’s not entitled to it.

  6. Lota says:

    Ratatouille will be big Dave.
    Transformers will be big with the males–any male under 40 will likely go see it and drag the kids with. There’s a big “collectibles” market of geeks, and geeks are into any media about their beloved junk they hoard. The IMDB board is busy enough to indicate this is so.
    Maybe Michael Bay can accomplish with toys what he can’t with people.
    I think the big surprises will be Rat, Tranformers and Bourne.
    Spidey & Pirates is a given they will be big.
    Is Shrek past its sell by date? Maybe. I have no interest in it since the second was such a step down from the 1st.

  7. Don Murphy says:

    Big words on the internet. Entitlement? Is any film today entitled?

  8. MarkVH says:

    Dave, I think you WAY overestimate Pirates – there’s still no confirmation that anyone actually LIKED 2, and the three-hour running time puts it nowhere near 400 mil. Shrek 3 takes the crown this year – book it.

  9. Lota says:

    All my younger brothers feel the same about Transformers as they do about Batman–they watch anything associated with the name, dude. They even still have their transformers.
    Check out Ebay for an indicator of popularity:
    that isn;t a small guide.

  10. westpilton says:

    I believe Shrek 2 out performed Spiderman 2. I see no reason why the that should repeat for the 3’s. I think the top spots might be 1. Shrek 3 2. Pirates 3 3. Spider-man 3 4. Harry Potter 5 5. Ratatouille 6. Bourne Ultimatum 7. Transformers 8. Rush Hour 9. Hairspray 10. Simpsons

  11. Hopscotch says:

    Initial reactions: Dave’s right about the top three pics, I totally agree with that amount and in that order. I also suspect they will all run out of gas by July 4th weekend.
    Disagreements: Simpsons Movie will be be bigger than $70M. How much bigger, not THAT much, but over $100M, I’d bet on it.
    Transformers and Ocean’s 13, are way to high. Transformers previews have not blown anyone away, and I’m actually a little turned off on it. The Ocean’s movies have been fall/winter movies. I don’t think it’ll be a big hit in the Summer. And frankly, isn’t everyone a little over these guys as a group?
    I wouldn’t underestimate Knocked Up, I think that’ll be the BIG Sleeper hit of the summer.

  12. Don Murphy says:

    Transformers previews have not blown anyone away

  13. jesse says:

    To echo some of the other posters — Dave, I think you’re a bit off on:
    -Simpsons (will make at least 100)
    -Knocked Up (sounds like it could get to 100, too, though it’ll have to work a bit harder)
    -Ocean’s 13 (I am all about this movie, but I can see it underperforming and only doing about 100, 120)
    -Superbad (again, this is a movie I’m dying to see, but 85 mil right now seems like a stretch; if Rogen is unproven but vaguely familiar, what’s the kid from Arrested Development co-starring with the kid from Accepted?)
    I don’t think Dave is off on Transformers, though. I expect it will have a MASSIVE opening but where is the second-weekend audience for it?? I can see it doing 300-style business, but even more frontloaded.
    I think his Shrek estimates are reasonable, too. Yes, families will go, but I think it probably has a bit of eh-whatever factor for the teenagers and twentysomethings who must’ve gone to Shrek 2. Then again, I didn’t think that one would pass 400, and there it went.

  14. Lota says:

    by the way Dave, good list but I think the top 3 are a little optimistic.
    Nancy Drew is opening the day when most public schools get out. I think it will be far bigger than you list it.
    Simpsons still is in people’s consciousness and is watched for reruns all the time. Much bigger than you have listed.
    Lucky You looks so bloody annoying but if Drew Barrymore, a liked personality clearly, can get the People magazine splashing her all over the place as “most beautiful”, I think her movie will be bigger than you got it pegged. The girls and alot of guys under 35 like her.

  15. westpilton says:

    About transformers, I agree that not a whole lot of people will be going to see this because it’s “TRansformers”, but I think plenty will go to see cool looking robots blowing stuff up.

  16. murdocdv says:

    In the chart Spider-man 3 is listed opening on 6/04, clearly a type.
    I think the Pirates estimate is off. No one I know, usually all in for this kind of thing and loved Pirates 1, liked Pirates 2, and plan on staying away from Pirates 3.

  17. westpilton says:

    Oh, and while it pains me to say it, I think you have underestimated Hostel II. I think slasher films still have some legs left, and this is the most promising one of the summer. I don’t know if it will crack 100 or anything, but 60-80 seems plausible.

  18. murdocdv says:

    BTW, the Transformers trailer was the first thing I watched in HD when I got an HDTV, it is gorgeous and has blown me and everyone I know away (under 40). Opening weekend on this is going to be huge.

  19. Wrecktum says:

    Simpsons with a $70m opening? seattlemoviegoer = insane. The thing will top out at $50 to $70 million.
    Poland, you should alter your analysis of Underdog. For the record, Eight Below is not a talking animal movie. But Dr. Dolittle is, and it made $144 million back in ’98.

  20. Tofu says:

    Potter might be able to crack out another $25 million over that estimate, as everything at that time is starting to fade for kids. The problem is, instead of going for the kill shot of having the seventh book released on 07/07/07, they instead went for 07/21/07 (??), thereby making Potter compete with Potter. All fanatics would have read the book one weekend, seen the movie the next, and maybe seen it again on the following weekend. Now many of the fan’s are all tied up for most of the fifth movies second weekend reading the final book. Lame.
    Underdog will underwhelm.
    Simpsons is just right at $70 million. The appeal died out.
    Ocean’s 13 is only make Ocean’s 12 numbers, due to a crowded June (as always).
    Spider-Man 3 will equal Spider-Man 2, but not 1.

  21. Don Murphy says:

    problem with Simpsons is people generally don’t like to pay for what they get free…
    problem with Hostel is that it is unpleasant for general audiences
    Transformers previews have not blown anyone away funniest comment of the day

  22. Nicol D says:

    Transformers- Very big. It looks unlike anything else out there. That counts; it easily gets to three hundred million.
    Shrek- A hit but the second one sucked and left a very bad taste in many parents mouths with all of the sex humor.
    Simpsons- A decade too late. 70 should be a blessing.
    Nancy Drew- I’m betting if its well done can get to 70. Has more appeal than I think people realize.
    Daddy Day Camp- Was directed by Fred Savage??!! That it went theatrical should be enough for this. Won’t break 30.
    Georgia Rule- Easily does more than 12 million. Every mom will want to see it and it doesn’t look intolerable for men.
    License to Wed- Also easily does over 13. Remember RV going over 50 million? I saw Williams as a priest in bed with a young couple and said, that’s a hit.
    Sicko- Moore has burned a lot of good will over the years. No longer the saviour of the left, he is their Jim and Tammy Faye Baker. I agree it can get to 50…but not easily. There will less ink from conservatives about this than F911 because the Moore name is like mud now.
    Live Free or Die Hard- Won’t break 100. In the age of 24 this looks like soft junk and Kevin Smith in the preview along with the sidekick being the Apple Mac kid says major suckage all around. Combined with the flakey jumping Cannes poster…I have to say I liked Willis much better as a Republican. Die hard indeed!

  23. Aladdin Sane says:

    I grew up on Transformers and GI Joe. Most of my friends in their mid twenties to early thirties did too. If they could see one movie today, it would be Transformers. While I don’t think it will win the summer, it will rake in a pile of cash. And if it’s a decent Michael Bay flick, then it will get repeat business. I’m not a fanboy when it comes to Transformers, so I’m not gonna rant and bitch the way some purists are. I just want to see a good storyline and giant robots beating each other up.
    It’ll be interesting to see how POTC3 does. Quite a few people were a tad underwhelmed by the second one – myself included (although it did play better on DVD for some reason). I’ll definitely be seeing the third one though.
    The only other threequel that I’m looking forward to is Ocean’s 13.
    This summer really seems more packed than usual. A lot of big films. Some weeks it looks like I may be in the theater more than twice…then again if Vancouver weather is anything like it was last year, a theater escape from the summer humidity is just what is needed (heat is one thing, humidity is something completely different!).
    I hope Ratatouille is a return to form for Pixar. A rat story though? Can even Brad Bird pull that off?

  24. Eric says:

    Maybe I’m misguided on the Transformers hype. I’m surprised people here are so psyched. I’m the only one of my mid-20s friends that seems interested. As I said, I’ll be happy if it’s good.
    Agree with Don about the Simpsons movie. The show peaked a very long time ago. The movie will have to be very special to compete with the classic episodes you can watch for free at home.
    As for Sicko– I had no idea it was coming so soon. Agree that it’s going an uphill battle to fight. The left has moved on from Michael Moore.

  25. jeffmcm says:

    Hey Don Murphy:
    (A) Have I done something to annoy you in the past? There are plenty of other screennames I’ve pestered, but ‘Don Murphy’ isn’t one of them.
    (B) This last weekend I saw a movie and there were trailers in front of it for Balls of Fury and Transformers. Excited enthusiasm for the former, dead silence for the latter, for what that’s worth.

  26. jeffmcm says:

    PS: I’m a successful film _student_, I’m a frustrated film _maker_. Obviously you should know the difference, being one yourself.

  27. loganX2 says:

    What about 1408? I know it has a crappy release date, against Harry Potter, but to not have it listed at all is just crazy.

  28. MASON says:

    License to Wed will make a lot more than 13 mil — hell, it could make more than that on opening weekend.
    Hard to tell with the Simpsons. I don’t watch the show anymore, but I’m jazzed for the movie. Wonder if other people feel the same.
    Transformers looks fun and will be huge.
    Die Hard 4 is testing through the roof and could be bigger than most think. I agree with Nicol D though — the Kevin Smith beat in the trailer is almost enough to keep me away.
    The last POTC bored me. No story, no through-line. And the near three hour run time of part three… well I may just skip it altogether. No one else will, of course.

  29. Hopscotch says:

    SEE!!! Eric is with me on Transformers.
    Have you seen the full-body designs on-line? They look retarded. It’s like the producers went, let’s just CHANGE ENTIRELY what some of the most beloved toy figures of all time look like.
    In the four quadrant situation: My parents want to see Shrek, Pirates and Spidey (and Bourne Ultimatum). My girlfriend wants to see Knocked Up and Rataouille. My little sister Nancy Drew.
    The Simpsons is the true wild card, I can see it doing $70M, or $170M. I guess it just depends on how funny it is.

  30. Nicol D says:

    I am actually stunned at the Kevin Smith/Die Hard thing.
    What audience are they going for…the fanboys over at AICN who were to young to see the original? Sad.
    I love Die Hard and Willis but as soon as I saw Smith I put the film on my “Wait and see on DVD list”. That can change of course, but as I said…24 has raised the overall bar on that subject matter and Smith’s poo poo/dicky dicky jokes do not jive with what I think fans want of that subject matter.
    It won’t break 100. Guaranteed.

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Not enough people will be bothered by the Kevin Smith thing to keep LFoDH from making a lot of money. Yes, we all agree as fans of the original that the trailer looks retarded, but to mainstream America it looks like an old-fashioned Michael Bay movie, hence should do well.

  32. Wrecktum says:

    I agree with Nicol. An 80s styled action flick with an aging 80s star and poorly cast costars does not equal boffo BO.

  33. Hopscotch says:

    Completely agree. As soon as Smith showed up in the trailer it was wincing time.
    As Grindhouse proved, the young fan boy base is not that big of a market. Hey shouldn’t Fan Boys be on DP’s list? or is it going to sit on the shelf another year?

  34. Eric says:

    Can I just take a moment and say that I absolutely love the summer movie season? It’s not art, but it’s a hell of a lot of fun. There’s always something to see. I wish I had a drive-in closer to home.
    Money talk is fun, but let’s not forget the love, people.

  35. Hopscotch says:

    I also think Evan Almighty and Rush Hour 3 are little high on DP’s list. I think both of those novelty ideas have worn off some. Though I’m sure I’m asking to be proved wrong.

  36. jeffmcm says:

    I want to agree with Westpilton re: Hostel 2, remember that the first one made close to $50m, plus now it’s been seen on video and has brand recognition, so it may perform more like the Saw sequels, $55m+ seems likelier.

  37. movielocke says:

    Overall I agree with Dave, though not entirely with his top five.
    I think Spidey will have an opening more along the lines of 130, and a second weekend in the 80s. People are starved for movies right now and Spidey’s going to reap an unbeatable benefit of a two week headstart. I see Shrek opening with high eighties to Spidey’s 50 million 3rd weekend, next weekend, Spidey and Shrek have a 50 million 4 days and Pirates opens to a 130 4 day. I don’t think the demand is there for Pirates three the way there was for Pirates two.
    Then I expect Spidey will take the crown, toppling 400 million, Pirates close behind with 360ish, followed by Harry Potter V with 310, I think Shrek will do extremely well, but not have the legs of Shrek 2 and top out around 290-300. But if the movie is as audience friendly as the first it could push by Pirates…
    Harry Potter will have another 100 million+ opening (possibly second best 3day of the summer) and outside it’s devastating second weekend drop (book7 comes out) will have the best legs of any flick in the franchise, enjoying a feedback loop of Potter frenzy from the bookreaders, Possibly the third weekend outgrossing the second weekend, thus getting more repeat business than any movie since the first. Having the most coherent linear plot, and ten times the action, excitement and romance of any of the previous potter flicks will help it as well, along with it’s shorter running time.
    Ratatouille will do really well for a fifth place finish.
    Spidey – 410
    Pirates – 360
    Potter – 310
    Shrek – 290
    Ratatouille – 270
    I think Dave’s pretty spot on with the rest, though perhaps overestimating rush hour and underestimating die hard. Evan Almighty will be huge, I think, probably number 6 for the summer.

  38. MarkVH says:

    Well said, Eric.
    This time of year always brings back fond memories of my favorite movie summers (and summer movies) – 1993 (Jurassic Park), 1994 (The Lion King), 1999 (Star Wars 1 – yeah, it sucks in retrospect, but my GOD the anticipation), 2001 (Moulin Rouge – I still can’t believe this was released during the summer season), 2003 (Pirates 1) and 2004 (Spidey 2, Bourne 2, Collateral).
    Most of all, I miss those summers when I was home from college and my best buddy and I would spend every Saturday afternoon seeing every piece of crap that got released, then spending the rest of the days buying video games and DVDs and bitching about what we’d just seen.
    Problem is that I’ve felt really burned by the last two movie summers (with the exceptions being Batman Begins and Wedding Crashers in ’05). It’s all felt too mechanical to me – disappointment after disappointment. I’m desperately hoping that this year can bring a bit of that magic back with at least ONE movie a month that I can really enjoy and not feel screwed by. My fingers are crossed.

  39. Krazy Eyes says:

    I think you all are skewing too old on your I think you all are skewing too old on your <40 Transformers estimates. I'm 35 and I don't remember *anyone* who watched or played with Transformers as a kid. Personally, I found the trailer medicore and I've been burned by Bay enough times to be perfectly happy to wait for the DVD. I would assume I'm way out of the demographic that some people seem to think are excited for this film.
    I think the new Die Hard looks pretty bad too and that is probably one of the films with the biggest nostalgia draws for me this summer.

  40. teambanzai says:

    I gave up making predictions a long time ago, at least sticking to them anyway. But I will be surprised as many others have expressed if the Simpsons do well it’s just too late.
    Live Free or Die Hard, could this be a Paul McCartney was in a band before wings thing? The original is tweny years old.
    I’m 38 and have never understood the draw to Transformers I thought the cartoon was lame in the 80’s but still I know a lot of people that are practically foaming at the mouth to see this film.
    The only thing I can see in Spiderman 3 is a dramatic drop off in it’s second week.
    Again Evan Almighty making money? Really?The trailer looks terrible.

  41. Krazy Eyes says:

    [oops. Evidently less-than symbols cause weird line breaks]
    I think you all are skewing too old on your under-40 Transformers estimates. I’m 35 and I don’t remember *anyone* who watched or played with Transformers as a kid. Personally, I found the trailer medicore and I’ve been burned by Bay enough times to be perfectly happy to wait for the DVD. I would assume I’m way out of the demographic that some people seem to think are excited for this film.
    I think the new Die Hard looks pretty bad too and that is probably one of the films with the biggest nostalgia draws for me this summer.

  42. Don Murphy says:

    to Jeffmcm
    You’ve never pestered me. You’d have to matter to me to be able to do that. I’ve read enough things by you here and on the Wells board to know that you think you have a clue and you think your points make sense and matter. And when you are smacked down by some of the smarter voices his you get snotty and nasty like a small child. (I’m a frustrated filmmaker am I? Actually, with three great films in the can as we speak, I am very happy and not frustrated slightly, thanks though.) As far as Hopscotch and his reading skills- Eric says he WANTS to see Transformers.

  43. jeffmcm says:

    Don: I said “frustrated” because I personally would be very frustrated if I had only made one good movie in my career (Natural Born Killers), but if you’re not then good for you. By the way, IMDB isn’t listing you as a producer on Transformers, what up with that?
    Thanks for the words though, just don’t send me any Spam.

  44. Stella's Boy says:

    I like it when someone acts nasty and snotty by accusing someone else of being nasty and snotty. That makes me laugh. You are sounding pretty defensive Don.

  45. Don Murphy says:

    jeffmcm You haven’t made ANY good films in your career. Is it time to hang yourself? Would anyone notice if you did? You didn’t like BULLY? Sad wittle boy. And you rely on Internet Movie Douche Bags? Awww. I bet you think the Xenu entry on Wikipedia is inaccurate too.
    Spam? No tasty meat for you. Starving is what you deserve.

  46. Don Murphy says:

    Stella Nah- been wanting to slap the smug little shit down for months and decided to gratuitously do so. Amusing myself. Sorry if you found it snotty. Okay not really….

  47. Eric says:

    Did I read somewhere that there were problems with the new Bourne movie? Shooting running long? I really do hope it’s great, and I think a lot of the grown-ups out there are into the series.

  48. jeffmcm says:

    Yeah Don, but I haven’t been working in the industry with millions at my disposal and talent like Connery, Depp, Stiller, or Singer for two decades with so little to show for it.
    Thanks for proving how little I mean to you…shouldn’t you be, you know, producing movies or something? Big-shots like you taking pot-shots at random bloggers sounds, what’s the word…incredibly petty and juvenile?

  49. Lota says:

    Jeff you are too pedantic in my opinion, but that’s just my opinion, and I agree to disagree on your misguided (IMUHO) choice of preferring Black Dahlia to LA Confidential.
    But now you are getting personal, something you used to complain about re. Bicycle Bob.
    With “if I had only made one good movie in my career (Natural Born Killers)” that’s just downright Unfair.
    You might not Like his movies but he’s produced decent movies generally get + ratings with the Peoples (like on IMDB).
    DM doesn’t need me to defend him though, he’s a big lad.

  50. Stella's Boy says:

    Not that jeff needs me to defend him, but in all fairness I do believe that Don took a shot at him first. I don’t think Mr. Murphy is innocent here.

  51. jeffmcm says:

    Lota, I know it sounds silly to say this, but…he started it.
    Plus, he’s clearly _not_ a big lad, he seems to be a giant baby with emotional problems.
    I’m done with it.

  52. Rob says:

    I think Evan Almighty is going to be the surprise disaster of the summer.

  53. Stella's Boy says:

    I could look it up but I’m lazy. When is Evan Almighty being released?

  54. Lota says:

    Stella if someone takes repeated personal shots then they are an arsehead who needs to be slapped down, no matter who s/he is.
    It seems to me, although I do not have time to search through the Hotblog, that Jeff has made more Neg comments that could be construed as personal about Murphy than Murphy has made about Jeff. I recollect this because I happen to like Murphy’s movies in general.
    If someone was making personal comments about my Work I would want to pulverize them into tofu, especially when the comment is mean-spirited.
    “if I had only made one good movie in my career (Natural Born Killers)”
    is mean-spirited and not called for
    at least Murphy doesn’t pick Boring material
    and I still have the talons out about Jeff’s comments on The Bitter Tea of General Yen and LA COnfidential.

  55. Lota says:

    Evan Almighty in the 10 or so trailers I have sat through in the last few weeks got almost ZERO laughs.
    Ratatouille got alot of laughs.
    I had a pet rat. I love rats, except City rats.

  56. jeffmcm says:

    Lota, I’m not sure that’s true. I do not recall _ever_ commenting on Mr. Murphy’s work before, I might have made an offhand comment that League of Extraordinary Gentlemen was crummy but I am positive that I have not said a word about Permament Midnight or Bully or From Hell or Apt Pupil.
    I have, on the other hand, had repeated clashes with Spam Dooley who was an obnoxious idiot, and Spam was widely considered to be a pseudonym for Don, so I think that’s the likelier cause of this effect.

  57. Don Murphy says:

    Lota thanks for defending me, although I am sure that his smuggery will keep him where he is forever. People forget that their opinion ain’t reality. AND he resorted to my favorite internet gambit- I am supposed to be a loser for commenting here- where he himself is commenting. Self esteem issues galore.

  58. jeffmcm says:

    Don, you have an exciting, fast-paced career, and I’m editing promos. I’m here to kill time, when you should be out banging models and making deals.

  59. Don Murphy says:

    I have never needed a pseudonym as I am more than willing to laugh at you under my true name. And you just said a word about all those films, by saying they weren’t good. A student normally can follow an argument much much better.

  60. jeffmcm says:

    Yeah, I said it up there…what’s your beef with me prior to today?

  61. Lota says:

    well you kind of trounce all of the films at once with “if I had only made one good movie in my career (Natural Born Killers”).
    so take it back and I will forgive you. It was the Bicycle Bob manner in which it was said that was sad.
    Spam may or may not have been DM, or it may have been multiple people, so I wouldn;t like to make assumptions on identity.

  62. Don Murphy says:

    I follow the movie boards
    Shocking that
    and I read what you write
    especially on Wells
    and it is all basically about how much better you would do given the chance
    well how will you get the chance when all you do it bitch and moan?
    why not sac up and try it yourself?
    it isn’t easy.

  63. jeffmcm says:

    Don: It is nonsense for you to single me out amongst all the other idiots on this site or Wells’s, especially since the overarching theme of my comments is not ‘I would do better’ (I don’t recall saying that) as much as it is ‘I can’t stand idiots’. I must assume you have some more personal grudge against me.
    And I certainly am in the process of attempting to advance, thanks. I’m not sure what it is to ‘sac up’ though.

  64. Lota says:

    DM: if Splice is going ahead, that will be good news.
    Island of Lost souls is my favorite hybrid creatures movie, hence my handle, but Splice sounds like it might be a good modern vision of that scenario.

  65. MarkVH says:

    PLEASE keep this up, guys. I’ve got another hour and forty minutes of work – I’m really enjoying it.

  66. Lota says:

    …and MarkVH called me a Dude. 🙁

  67. Lota says:

    but I’m not mad. “Lota” would only be a familiar character to old horror/pre-code fans.

  68. MarkVH says:

    My bad – and although I do in fact consider myself a pre-code/horror fan, I’m ashamed to admit that IoLS has yet to cross my radar. It’s on the list.

  69. Lota says:

    I hope you have seen FREAKS as well MarkVH.

  70. Ladymerlin says:

    Mr. Poland,
    I’m curious about your belief that Bourne Ultimatum will have a lower gross than Bourne Supremacy. Is it the date or some other reason?

  71. MarkVH says:

    Yep, Freaks sits proudly on the DVD shelf (great disc!) alongside the Frankenstein and Dracula Legacy sets, in addition to the 1932 Fred March/Miriam Hopkins Jekyll and Hyde. Anything else I should see?

  72. Dude, this is awesome…Don…make fun of me next!!
    jeff-you set yourself up alll the time for ridicule, then have a hissy fit when DP (or in this case, DM) single you out. Sack up and take it like a man if you’re going to put your opinions out there so often.
    Back to the thread/comments…
    So…the fanboy geekery of TRANSFORMERS will equal more box office draw than the fanboy geekery of THE SIMPSONS or DIE HARD? I obviously think TRANSFORMERS will whup those 2 movies, but I think the same “latch-key” kids who grew up on the Transformers TV show are the same kids who idolized Bruce Willis.
    I also think that although THE SIMPSONS has gone down, it’s still on the air with no talk of leaving. People love the Simpsons.
    How can KNOCKED UP make less than SUPERBAD when the Katherine Heigel/Paul Rudd factor is in effect for KNOCKED UP? I’ve seen KNOCKED UP, it’s awesome. It’s going to be big.
    Does anyone else thing “Ratatouille” being impossible to spell or pronounce will hurt it at the box office?

  73. I also saw a trailer for EVAN ALMIGHTY and the crowd went nuts for it. If they keep it PG, it’s going to do real, real well.

  74. Nicol D says:

    I think the main factor people are missing about The Transformers is that it will not have to rely on the fanboys. Yes, The Transformers was a popular cartoon from the eighties…but the film and the way it is being marketed does not dwell on that attachment.
    Instead it looks unlike anything else out there and that alone will put it over the top.
    We’ve seen Spidey…seen Pirates…seen a green Ogre…seen boy-wizards…
    We haven’t seen skyscraper size robots battling on the skyline before. That…not name or brand recognition will put it over the top. And the posters look like it is not just a kiddie flick.
    If expectations are for it to do around 200, it will easily outdo those on spectacle alone.

  75. jeffmcm says:

    “jeff-you set yourself up alll the time for ridicule”
    I do?
    “then have a hissy fit when DP (or in this case, DM) single you out. Sack up and take it like a man”
    As far as I’m concerned, hitting back at Don Murphy’s bullying and pointing out his childishness isn’t a ‘hissy fit’, it’s a completely appropriate response. I’m (honestly) puzzled as to what else you think should be done.

  76. RudyV says:

    Anyone have any idea when HOT FUZZ will actually go wide? Or is this it?
    I really don’t want to drive halfway across the state to find a theater playing it, yet I certainly don’t want to wait for the DVD.

  77. Lota says:

    here’s some talkies; not necessarily horror; worth seeing
    Baby face
    it’s a gift (I think it made the cut off. could be wrong, but it’s great)
    red-headed woman
    trouble in paradise
    the black cat
    mata hari (not historically correct, but fun)
    the circus queen murder (good luck finding it)
    by whose hand?
    doorway to hell
    the invisible man
    white zombie
    blonde venus
    the bat whispers
    bitter tea of general yen
    many French films too

  78. jeffmcm says:

    It’s a Gift and The Black Cat are especially good. And Invisible Man is not only iconic, but really funny and creepy as well.

  79. Lota says:

    if you have not seen “M” and Das Testament des Dr. Mabuse, then you must.

  80. Joe Leydon says:

    Actually, I used to think Lota took her name from Led Zeppelin. Like: “A whole lota love…”

  81. Lota says:

    heh heh, you old hippie Joe. But no. It is from Island of Lost souls, as it affected me from the early days of my youth and I know I am not truly human anyway, the stubborn beast flesh creeps back.
    But a friend did alert me to this Wikipedia entry for which I am having to take alot of shit
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Jump to: navigation, search
    “Lota (Urdu: ????, Hindi: ????) is a Urdu and Hindi word for a small, usually spherical water vessel of brass or copper used in parts of South Asia.
    It is commonly used in daily activities like cooking or cleaning to store or transfer small amounts of liquids like milk or water. It is also used in religious activities like Hindu poojas or for purposes of ablution prior to Namaz.”
    Apparently Lota is a crater on Mars and a genus of fishes.
    We accept you, one of us! Gooble Gobble!

  82. Hopscotch says:

    Evan Almighty comes out June 22 and is PG, so definitely going for the young ones is it’s key to success.

  83. Lota says:

    and the most negative Lota connotations even though Wikipedia is Correct about 32% of the time.
    “In the South-Asian sub-continent, where cleaning with water is the usual method for maintaining personal hygiene after defecation, a lota with a spout is widely used as a container for this purpose.
    The word “lota” or the phrase “Bependi ka Lota” (literrally a “lota without a base”) is colloquially used in a derogatory manner to refer to a person who frequently switches loyalties.”

  84. Goulet says:

    TRANSFORMERS is the blockbuster I’m most looking forward to this summer.
    Of course, this is coming from a diehard fan of Michael Bay, so your mileage may vary.
    Also, about the $ issue, people shouldn’t underestimate Shia Lebeouf’s rising star – lotsa teen girls might go to see that dude.

  85. Lota says:

    Evan Almighty…will the Bridge to Terebithia crowd like it…?
    and seems a little preachy or preposterous for adults.
    in the midst of all the other kidstuff in that fortnight before and after, I wonder of Evan is going to be a bust. AT least Dr Doolittle wasn;t about a religious subject Religious subjects can be offputting –and Evan almighty doesn;t have the blood suffering going for it like Mel’s movie to draw in the catholics and evangelicals

  86. Nicol D says:

    “and Evan almighty doesn;t have the blood suffering going for it like Mel’s movie to draw in the catholics and evangelicals”
    It will also have, if I recall my biblical readings correctly, Evan taking in one male and female animal of each species…guess the progressives will be pissed too.
    Shall we start the ‘its a bigoted movie’ campaign now or wait till closer to the release date to have a better impact?

  87. Lota says:

    You can start a bigoted movie campaign if you wish Nicol, I’d have no part of it.
    Evan Almighty doesn;t look as interesting or as funny as Doctor Doolittle and that’s enough to get me uninterested.

  88. jeffmcm says:

    “Evan taking in one male and female animal of each species…guess the progressives will be pissed too.”
    What a reflexively stupid thing to say.

  89. Nicol D says:

    Not at all.
    Why I suspect if it hadn’t been me bringing it up you would have started the complaints yourself.
    You’re not exactly immune from saying reflexively stupid things, Jeff.
    Guaranteed, before the end of the summer, some progressives will be complaining at the ‘subversive, bigotted message’ if Evan is shown to only have one male and female of a species.

  90. THX5334 says:

    I couldn’t help it; I had to give both barrels to JeffMCM on Wells site, under the Star Wars trailer thread. Congratulations Jeff, you managed to goad me again, and waste my time (though it did break my writers block I had going this afternoon)
    Mr Murphy; a tip of the hat to you sir, I wish you and all the other players that come here major success on your endeavors.
    Not a fan of the source material or the director, but I will be seeing your film as we have mutual above the line friends in this town that are genuinely good people (a rarity for sure) so I’m always out to support the crew and their people which to my understanding, includes you.
    And with that, I am disappearing for a minute to go under a major workload.
    Keep an eye out for Lota people, she is a real talent.

  91. bmcintire says:

    Lota actually brings up a pretty decent religious point (that Jeff Wells hammered on his site a few weeks ago). The basic premise of the film has God coming off a pretty much a dick (Morgan Freeman or not) getting ready to kill everyone on Earth but Evan and his clan. Every pratfall and double-entendre imaginable won’t be able to successfully gloss over that point without succumbing to “I was only testing your faith, Evan,” which is even more cringe-inducing. Of course, I am dreading it just because it looks so damned un-funny.
    And I think David may have been generous to THE SIMPSONS. It looks funny, but much like the SOUTH PARK movie (which was freaking hilarious!), it was born for television, and will kill on DVD. I see a $20M opening weekend, capping off at around $55-60M.

  92. So basically a “lota” is a Hindi “waterbucket?”

  93. Lota says:

    I prefer the word VESSEL Petaluma. Like VESSEL of joy, VESSEL of change. Not waterbucket. There already is a waterbucket on this board.
    but I am from Island of Lost Souls truly.
    I can;t help when I see your name I think of dairy products.
    Isnt there a petaluma dairy in California du Nord?

  94. jeffmcm says:

    Nicol, I don’t think that most people really care who or what goes on Noah’s ark, it being based on a traditional source and all. I’m sure there will be some morons who complain but they won’t be anybody who matters. Anticipating them just makes you look like a bully.
    I would, however, love it if the movie actually _does_ kill off all of humanity, talk about writing yourself into a corner, but I think we all be pretty sure they won’t.

  95. jeffmcm says:

    THX, I wrote you a response where I explained things to you. I really hope it makes sense.

  96. Nicol D says:

    “Anticipating them just makes you look like a bully.”
    Yes, Jeff…if you say so.

  97. Petaluma’s a dairy town all the way…but we get our fair share of cinematic mojo. The Butcher Brothers are from here. They did THE HAMILTONS which Lionsgate picked up and now, they just got hired to do the remake of APRIL FOOLS DAY.
    One of the LonlyGirl15 creators is from here, I used to work with his dad. And plus, I’m a frigging superstar.

  98. jeffmcm says:

    Nicol, if I said “I can’t wait for The Da Vinci Code 2 to come out for some more of that hot anti-Catholic propaganda to make the Bible-thumpers’s heads explode” you’d think I was a jerk, right? Same thing.

  99. Nicol D says:

    Jeff MCM,
    No, not the same thing. You have, as usual, taken me out of context and twisted my words to make the point you want to make about me being a bad person.
    I never said “I can’t wait…”.
    That’s the difference.
    I merely stated a fact that some, even many, progressives would be upset over the fact that Evan Almighty will most likely depict only male/ female couplings being saved. I never said it was good. I never said it was bad.
    I never used invective, nor described them in derogatory terms as you have in your analogy.
    Just as if someone said, ‘Catholics will be upset at The DaVinci Code 2’; I would have to agree. They will and will most likely say so.
    As far as you being a jerk?
    JeffMMC, let’s be very clear. I think you are perhaps the biggest, most rude, arrogant, hypocritical, asinine, pretentious, self absorbed, lonely, elitist, passive-aggressive, vicious poster I have ever encountered in my history of leaving comments on blogs.
    Hey, I know I am not popular due to many of my views…but I never make it personal. I never make assumptions about the quality of the human being I am talking with…except for you now.
    You are a miracle. A snotty, little brat with way too much time on his hands who is filled with a level of arrogance I have never encountered before on blogs.
    I have even tried to ‘befriend’ you at times by saying if I agreed with a point you made or defending you, if you had made a good insight. But you give nothing back to anybody.
    Again, I realize I am no one’s favourite poster anywhere, but I am amazed at how you cannot see how you come off. Amazed.
    Just so we’re clear. Yes, I think you’re a jerk.

  100. Don Murphy says:

    JeffMMC, let’s be very clear. I think you are perhaps the biggest, most rude, arrogant, hypocritical, asinine, pretentious, self absorbed, lonely, elitist, passive-aggressive, vicious poster I have ever encountered in my history of leaving comments on blogs.

  101. jeffmcm says:

    Well, tone is hard to express on a blog. I read your comment as some kind of anticipatory, pre-gloating kind of thing, hence my response about Da Vinci Code 2. If that isn’t what you had in mind, sorry, but I would also propose that the thought would have only entered your mind in the first place out of presumptions that I could only characterize as misguided.
    Meanwhile, likewise. I’ve tried on countless occasions to reach out to you, beyond the level of partisanship, and I have never seen you reciprocate. You’re much smarter than lots of other posters, but I also think you’re arrogant, blindered, cowardly, hypocritical…
    So let’s call it even and move on.

  102. jeffmcm says:

    I don’t know what ‘QFT’ stands for, Don.

  103. Cadavra says:

    Jeez, I go away for a while and I come back to this? Can’t you children play nice?

  104. jeffmcm says:

    I’m sorry to Dave Poland for turning this into the ‘everyone hates jeffmcm’ show today. If there are further comments in my direction they can be addressed to me directly at

  105. RudyV says:

    I seriously doubt that EVAN ALMIGHTY will bring about any sort of religious firestorm, since nobody got all worked up when ROBOT CHICKEN took on the subject here:

  106. bmcintire says:

    Yeesh. In jeffmcm’s defense, NicolD, your statement “Evan taking in one male and female animal of each species…guess the progressives will be pissed too” is a ridiculous assumption that says little more than that you think progressives are ridiculous. I can’t say if that was your intent, but that’s how it reads. The fable-scenario of Noah’s Ark pairs male and female for the propogation of the species, not as a house-cleaning of homosexuals. Breeders have always popped out the gay, and scary-science notwithstanding, they always will. And back to the first post, I would LOVE to see Herzog’s picture rake in some bucks. I’ve seen it twice now (both the PG-13 and R cuts) and it rocks.

  107. anghus says:

    i think most of those numbers are pretty good.
    I think Knocked Up will make more.
    I think Die Hard 4 will make more.
    QFT means ‘quoted for truth’

  108. jeffmcm says:


  109. Don Murphy says:

    as in
    A snotty, little brat with way too much time on his hands who is filled with a level of arrogance I have never encountered before on blogs.

  110. jeffmcm says:

    Yeah Don, already got it, thanks.
    Don’t spam me, Spam.

  111. anghus says:

    you know, i sit squarely on the fence here, but i kind of agree with the ‘arrogance’ remark.
    There’s a lot of armchair film types round these parts. And while it’s nice to hear everyone’s insight on film and the industry, there’s a lot of people without an ounce of experience in the business to be talking the shit they talk.
    its not just here. there’s a lot of message boards where people read box office mojo and read a few webstites who fancy themselves some kind of expert on the film business.
    and that amuses me.

  112. Don Murphy says:

    not spam, just the first guy (of seemingly hundreds) to speak out that you were an unconscionable douchebag in the hopes that maybe you can sort yourself out, learn what sac up means, and maybe you can move on from cleaning the restrooms at the editing suite. An honorable job, but what future is there in it? After five years do you get your own brush?

  113. jeffmcm says:

    Don: if you want to address me, send it to my email address that I posted above and please stop wasting David Poland’s bandwidth.

  114. Don Murphy says:

    jeffmcm I’m fine here- David has my numbers if the width starts to shrink, LOL. Are you speaking for him now you arrogant maggot?
    But you give nothing back to anybody.

  115. Josh Massey says:

    The one thing that leaps off that chart is your License to Wed number. It will do more than that in the opening weekend.
    July 4th, perfect counterprogramming to feed a starved chick-flick audience, fans of “The Office,” the millions of Robin Williams fans still out there…
    I’d say it will be much closer to $100 million than $13.

  116. Noah says:

    Two things:
    1) Don Murphy, is that the real Don Murphy? If so, I’ve always wonder what ever happened to Jane Hamsher? I read her Natural Born Killers book, which I found to be so fascinating and then she fell off the map. Do you still work with her?
    2) I cannot believe that Poland has Hairspray making more money that Chuck and Larry, Die Hard, Fantastic Four 2, and The Simpsons movie. I mean, I feel like he’s deliberately fucking with me.

  117. jeffmcm says:

    Actually, this is getting amusing. Most people would be trying to pretend to be delivery boys to sneak into your office and get you a script, or contrive to bump into you at a party to get your attention: and I have you all to myself!
    Is the mega-budget motion picture you have coming out in a few weeks so undemanding of your time that you think it’s useful of you to single out a lone blogger, with whom you allegedly have never had any contact before, and publicly berate them for reasons that are spurious at best?
    I’m bemused.

  118. Don Murphy says:

    not bemused- sad.
    Noah- Jan became a huge left wing blogger- like hanging with Hillary and shit.

  119. jeffmcm says:

    Sorry, not sad- puzzled. And understanding of the cliche about Hollywood producers being, in a word, dicks.

  120. Don Murphy says:

    If I am, boy can you suck me!
    I never make assumptions about the quality of the human being I am talking with…except for you now.

  121. jeffmcm says:

    Get off the coke, Don. It’ll rot your nose from the inside.

  122. anghus-
    You’re right about clueless people on box office stuff, but what really irks me are all the armchair film CRITICS out there. These people don’t even know the difference between film “reviewers” and film “critics.” It’s an annoying state of affairs.

  123. Tofu says:

    Don Murphy, judging by the amount of posts on other messageboards, is online 23 hours of the day.

  124. I don’t have the time to write anything substantial, but I will write this:
    If TMNT can make nearly $60mil on nostalgia alone then surely The Simpsons Movie can make more than $10mil or however much.

  125. movielocke says:

    I was looking ahead and noticed:
    SUMMER 2008
    Tentative Release Dates
    (all dates subject to change)
    “Iron Man” (Paramount) 5/2
    “The Day the Earth Stood Still” (Fox) 5/9
    “Speed Racer” (WB) 5/9
    “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” (Disney) 5/16
    “Indiana Jones IV” (Lucasfilm/Paramount) 5/22
    “Starship Dave” (Fox) 5/30
    “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks/Paramount) 6/6
    “Nights at Rodanthe” (WB) 6/6
    “The Happening” (Fox) 6/13
    “The Incredible Hulk” (Universal) 6/13
    “Get Smart” (WB) 6/20
    “The Love Guru” (Paramount) 6/20
    “Wall-E” (Disney/Pixar) 6/27
    “Tonight, He Comes” (Sony) 7/2
    “The Mummy: Curse of the Dragon” (Universal) 7/11
    “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks/Paramount) 7/11
    “The Dark Knight” (WB) 7/18
    “Mamma Mia!” (Universal) 7/18
    “Step Brothers” (Sony) 7/25
    “Hellboy 2: The Golden Army” (Universal) 8/1
    “Journey 3D” (New Line) 8/8
    Dave, is it too early to get the NYT and EW talking about THE GREAT SLUMP OF 2008, because business is down so much from 2007? I’m already bored with all this talk of success, where’s the drama?

  126. PastePotPete says:

    I have to say I agree with Don Murphy about one thing: over the past several months JeffMCM has taken over the comments section both here and at Hollywood Elsewhere(who knows where else).
    He easily starts a majority of the arguments at both sites, his comments largely detract from the discussion started by the blogger, and for pure volume of text he probably beats Poland and Wells put together. I don’t come here to read what JeffMCM thinks about every.single.subject.ever. He writes well but that is out-weighed by the belligerent, snide, and rude tone of his remarks. He’s boring.
    I wouldn’t bring it up if not for that last point. It’s excruciating. And you can’t just skip over his comments because he takes control of the conversation. If I ever stop reading thehotblog, it’ll be because of JeffMCM, not Poland.
    Basically I think JeffMCM should start his own movie blog. Bot because I’d read it, but because he obviously has a great deal of time on his hands and lacks an adequate outlet. And at least then we could actually have a discussion here that he does not dominate.

  127. PastePotPete says:


  128. jeffmcm says:

    My attitude has always been, it’s not that I post too much; it’s that y’all don’t post enough.
    That said, I certainly don’t want to be the jackass in the room. I have no problems with making an enemy out of Don Murphy, who is clearly insane, or Nicol, who is blatantly an ass, but when it comes from elsewhere, then that actually means something.
    PS: it’s not JeffMCM, it’s JeffMcM. My last name is McMahon.

  129. jeffmcm says:

    PS: Not a single person wrote to my email address to elucidate upon any problems they have with me. I think that says something.
    Good night.

  130. EDouglas says:

    Because I got so caught up in pre-Tribeca extra work, I wasn’t able to get my summer box office preview done this week, but I can say one place where we greatly differ is what will be the #1 movie of the summer. I don’t think it will be PIrates for various reasons you’ll have to wait until next week to read. I also don’t think Rush Hour 3 will place that high, not after five years where Tucker has been absent and Chan’s career has taken a nosedive.

  131. anghus says:

    jeff wrote:
    “PS: Not a single person wrote to my email address to elucidate upon any problems they have with me. I think that says something.”
    why on earth would you want to start an email dialogue with someone so argumentative?
    Paste Pot Pete:
    “I don’t come here to read what JeffMCM thinks about every.single.subject.ever. He writes well but that is out-weighed by the belligerent, snide, and rude tone of his remarks. He’s boring”
    Quoted for Truth.

  132. Kambei says:

    bmcintire: And back to the first post, I would LOVE to see Herzog’s picture rake in some bucks. I’ve seen it twice now (both the PG-13 and R cuts) and it rocks. There’s a PG-13 cut? Is it still as powerful?

  133. Joe Straat says:

    Is it sad that the thought occured to me that I could calculate Jeff’s bedtime from this thread? Slow day.
    Not to assume anything about the life of a producer since I’ve only been one on a VERY small level and on a more representative level than finding cash, keeping things on track and the like, but I’d think saying the right thing to the right people in an industry where few people say what they mean and having other people do the same to you can get tiresome, so I guess there’s the need to have a little fun sometimes. *shrug* And Jeff, I don’t think there is anything productive about talking with Don any more. I get the feeling he is not willing to discuss anything on the level in which you would prefer, or you would find anything beneficial from continued discussion here, so I would suggest you stop trying to do whatever you’re trying to do to win, defend yourself, or whatever you’re trying to do.
    I don’t have any kind of serious dislike for you. I don’t hate or have frustration for anyone here. This isn’t the Internet Movie Database where people bitch about EVERY SINGLE LITTLE THING you can imagine with enough venom to kill Ah-nold in three steps or make up the dumbest theories ever (“Leonard Shelby is ACTUALLY an alien and he’s the one who attacked the REAL Leonard Shelby and downloaded his thoughts so he could start a sleeper invasion, but there was an error…..” Not a REAL theory, but would you be surprised if it was?). I’m sort of glad I lost my password and closed the e-mail account I could get it sent to. A bit of protection from myself. Anyway, I’m just calling it how I see it. Why am I bothering? Like I said, slow day.

  134. Don Murphy says:

    Jeff McMahon Nobody emailed you because, well, nobody ever emails you. Or calls you. The only mail you get is from the Gas Company. The only joy you know is a dishwashing liquid and is lemon fresh. Fact is, no one has come to your defense and said “leave the poor hard working janitor alone.” That says enough.
    but because he obviously has a great deal of time on his hands and lacks an adequate outlet. QFT for sure

  135. Krazy Eyes says:

    Hi Don. Since you’re checking this board I have a question for:
    I noticed that you’re attached to Vincenzo Natali’s new production Splice. He’s a very talented director who hasn’t been making enough features. Do you know off-hand what’s been happening with his adaptation of High Rise? Is it in development hell or just being delayed while he’s working on Splice? This was something I was very much looking forward to.

  136. Don Murphy says:

    Vinchnat came to LA and by now should be the new Spielberg or at least the new Zach Snyder. All of his projects, Hi Rise, Neverwhere, etc were great ideas that he worked hard on. In some cases he was wronged (IMO) by some bad people, like the head of Mandate. In other cases, he didn’t have people helping him navigate properly and he therefore wasn’t earning and so the navigation got even worse- it becomes a vicious cycle. I believe those other projects are off now. But Splice will hopefully bring him back on the radar and then we’ll try to help him navigate the big mean studios a little better.

  137. Joe Leydon says:

    Don: I always thought Double Dragon was a very under-rated movie. Seriously. And George Hamilton was freakin’ hilarious.

  138. Wrecktum says:

    Hey, Don the bully: leave the poor hard working janitor alone. He’s just an overeager kid with a prickly online persona who loves movies. Pick on someone your own size.

  139. bmcintire says:

    Kambei – the cuts are very very minor – a few snips of blood gushing and I believe a “fuck.” Completely minor, but probably a $6M dollar difference in box office, easily. I sincerely hope it does well.

  140. jeffmcm says:

    I have a dishwasher and ‘janitor’ is a product of Don’s fevered, hateful imagination.

  141. Don Murphy says:

    Joe Leydon— the number of times some moron who wasn’t remotely worth the time made a crack about Double Dragons is beyond measure. You aren’t even an original troll.

  142. seattlemoviegoer says:

    i think Poland is correct on HAIRSPRAY. maybe even a little modest. the tween factor is huge, and zac efron is an up and comer (any adults here familiar with HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL?). plus, it’s a hit Broadway show, the cast is full of stars, the music is terrific, it’s the first John Travolta musical since GREASE (hell, his last semi-musical STAYING ALIVE was crap but made a mint), and he’s doing the fat-suit routine that makes millions for Eddie Murphy, Tyler Perry and Martin Lawrence. i think it will surprise a lot of people.
    ok, Wrecktum, call me “insane” again, i’m ready.
    and i stick by my assessment for SIMPSONS.

  143. Wrecktum says:

    seattlemoviegoer, you’re insane. *ducks*

  144. Hey Don-
    When Quentin Tarantino choked you…was it embarrassing because he’s a geeky pussy or because it was in public?
    Just curious…(and waqnting this surreal thread to never, ever end)

  145. I love how apparently Jeff is always mouthing off and then there are people who always mouth off at him, as if that’s making the situation any better.
    Bigger man? It’s as if none of you have ever heard of him.

  146. Lynch Van Sant says:

    Yawn…half the top 20 are sequels (and most already on their third!) and most of the rest are proven brands – Transformers, Simpsons, Pixar & Dreamworks Animation, and Sandler. Has any other summer screamed “product” more than this one?
    I’m a huge Simpsons fan, and that estimate is shocking to me. Sure it’s not at its height of popularity anymore (though to me it still has one of the highest laughs per minute count on tv), but it’s been popular for a decade and a half and has a much broader audience than other tv cartoon to movie adaptations like Spongebob or South Park. Interestingly, in Canada it does much better in the ratings than in U.S. and it runs 4 times a day in syndication on various channels. We Canucks appreciate good comedy when we see it. 😉
    If it doesn’t do more than $100 million I’ll be shocked…and sad.
    I agree with the sentiment that horror films that did well at b.o. and pleased even more on dvd usually have their sequels do even better…so Hostel 2 and 28 Weeks Later should do much better than David forecasts. And where is 1408 on list…Stephen King story with Cusack and Samuel L. should be good for $30-$40mil.
    Georgia Rules only $12mil ?!?!?! Even though it’s R-rated, a Garry Marshall chick flick with some nice star power should do much better. I’ve noted in past year’s forecasts David has a soft spot for raunchy comedies and underestimates chick flicks…guess it’s a guy thing.
    If Robin Williams can get crap like RV to $80+ then I don’t see how License To Wed opening on July 4th can only do $13 as forecast. Wedding movies in the summer are a license to print money.

  147. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    I go away for a few days and Murph the Surf turns up and raises hell. I wonder where Spam Dooley is…

  148. Joe Leydon says:

    Er, Don: When I said seriously, I meant — well, you know, seriously. As in, you know, not joking. As is, well, I gave the film a mostly favorable review when it was released. (You can look it up.) Your belligerently rude response bespeaks, at the very least, a lack of class.

  149. Eric says:

    Joe, it appears to be a reflex.

  150. Don Murphy says:

    Joey Do not be disingenuous on Mr Dave’s board- your post was intended as a slam as a troll like yourself lives for slams. I responded with as much class as a troll deserves.
    Pettyluma ah the second most used troll attack – as in “I am glad QT kicked your ass”- well neither (choking or ass kicking) happened…but hey, thanks for asking and for your heartfelt concern…

  151. Joe Leydon says:

    Don, please go back and re-read my original post. And then read my original review:
    I fail to see how any rational person could interpret either as a slam. And I do not understand why you feel the urge to hurl insults at a stranger who has never spoken unkindly of you. You seem to be a desperately unhappy and deeply troubled individual. I do hope you seek the professional help you need.
    (P.S.: For what it’s worth, I think Permanent Midnight was a good movie, too.)

  152. Don Murphy says:

    Apologies Joe- the electroshock wasn’t taking. Thank you for sorting out that you are not a troll, you just play one sometimes.
    Sincere thanks and apologies

  153. Joe Leydon says:

    I am Irish. I would never play a troll, only a leprechaun. And either way, I would never actually be cast, because as I repeatedly demonstrated during three years as a drama major, I am the worst actor in all of Christendom.
    BTW: Was not kidding about Permanent Midnight.

  154. Wrecktum says:

    Leydon, Don Murphy’s anger issues are legendary (and frequent). You should take his attacks as a badge of honor.

  155. Cadavra says:

    Is it any wonder Hamsher left showbiz for the comparatively tranquil realm of politics? 🙂

  156. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Joe no need to explain. He’s what we call in the biz – a borderline.
    I wonder if B.A.G wants to go 9021’Oh! on Don’s lovely lumps for making old man google eyes at the tenessee tramp Ms Fox.
    More than meets the eye. For real.

  157. Joe Leydon says:

    Jeff Boam’s Doc: I know I’m going to hate myself for asking, but could you please provide an English translation for your post?

  158. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Borderline = BDP borderline personality disorder
    B.A.G = Brian Austin Green (beau of Megan Fox)
    9021-0h! = Bad boy behaviour
    Lovely Lumps = Don’s doughy physique
    Ms Fox = Megan Fox (star of Transformers)

  159. Joe Leydon says:

    Are you saying Megan Fox puts out like a gum machine? Damn. I was in Tennessee just this past week.

  160. Don Murphy says:

    JB Doctor
    either make sense
    be accurate
    be funny
    or drop dead

  161. jeffmcm says:

    This is a fun game. Who’s the next target of the Boldface Brawler going to be?

  162. Joe Leydon says:

    This thread, oddly enough, reminds me of a running gag Jack Garner and I used to share. We decided that if this film reviewing scam didn’t work out, we would become a WWF tag-team. We would call ourselves Critical Mass, and issue threats like: “We’ll give our opponents– THUMB’S DOWN!!!” Or: “We’re gonna colorize them — BLACK AND BLUE!!!!”
    I bet we could kick the crap out of that Uwe Boll guy!

  163. Lota says:

    if you are going to tag-team don;t skimp…take out Boll AND McG

  164. Joe Leydon says:

    Lota: Only if you agree to show up in leopard-skin tights to be our corner person. (You can even do the Island of Lost Souls make-up.)

  165. Joe Leydon says:

    BTW: I am home toight, a Saturday, because (a) I’m a real loser, and (b) I just watched by beloved Astros lay the smackdwon on the Milwaukee Brewers, and am now seeing the Rockets take on Utah. During commercials, I am trying to bring order out of chaos in my home office. A few minutes ago, I picked up an old Filofax, and paged through it. You remember what Francois Truffaut once said: “Each year, we have to cross out of our address books the names of people who have died, and the day comes when we realize we know more dead people than living”? Well, I turned to the listings beginning with “S” and saw numbers for Gene Siskel and Rod Steiger. I think I’m going to open up another bottle of Merlot.

  166. Lota says:

    Sorry, joe. I don’t like tights and the crowd hasn’t earned the right to the fur & sarong.
    no one would be looking at me in the corner anyway if Boll and McG were being clubbed & roughed up.
    make them suffer at least as long as one of their movies.

  167. jeffschwartzbaugh says:

    I have to agree with the posters who think that David was way off in his estimates for both “License to Wed” and “Georgia Rule.”
    The latter was directed by Gary Marshall who even managed to pull decent (if underwhelming) numbers from the insipid “Raising Helen” w/ Kate Hudson three summers ago. And although Mandy Moore has never headlined anything even approximating a hit since 2002’s “A Walk to Remember,” I’ve got a hunch that “License” could be a key summer sleeper. Certainly Warner Brothers positioning it as a 4th of July weekend alternative to “Transformers” shows they have confidence in the film. My guess is $45-million for “Georgia” and $75-million+ for “License.” Also, David’s predicted $45-million gross for “Sicko” seems a tad high. Except for “Fahrenheit 9/11,” no previous Michael Moore doc has done better than the low twenties. I really don’t see this one doing appreciably better than “Bowling for Columbine,” probably less. Personally, I think Weinstein should hold it for fall.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon