MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

The Weekend Slogs On…

“You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.”

Box Office Mojo is estimating $31 million for P3 for Sunday, which is a similar Sunday drop to X3, which was the biggest dropper last Memorial Day Sunday… which could be right or $5 million or so wrong.
Sony (via C. Nikki Finke) is estimating at $35 million Sunday… which could be right or $5 million or so wrong.
Keep in mind that Sony’s Thursday estimate was about $3 million high… and other studios were in other places… estimates are estimates… not that there is anything wrong or unexpected about that… unless you are selling absolute accuracy.
What is apparent is that Monday will be in the mid-20s, which would put the 4.5 day cume in the 150s, which will not be a record. (4-day record is $161m… 5-day is $173m) Regardless, we will still have had three of the four biggest movie openings in history in this dainty month of May 2007.
That said, as the freaky numbers have shown us this summer, P3 looks like it will pass SM3’s first week gross of $182 million by the time Thursday grosses roll around. But then it gets interesting again…
Next weekend, Pirates 3 will face its first traditional 3-day weekend. Last year’s Memorial Day opener, X3, which also did Thursday night screenings, still fell 66%, even though logic would suggest a relatively small drop would make sense, as the 4-day weekend spreads the gross. Nope. P3 will face at least as much new firepower as X3 did in The Break-Up, with Knocked Up and Mr. Brooks combined. Drops were a lot smaller in earlier years, with Shrek 2 as a for instance.
Still, a strong week and a 50% drop for the 3-day only next weekend, would make for about a $245 million 10-day (or 11…or 10.5, depending on how you want to account for Thursday), which would put P3 behind only P2 after the second weekend. Still, a 55% drop and it’s back behind Spider-Man 3 as well.
(For the sake of clarity, SM3 fell permanently behind SM2 day count-for-day count on Day 11. Using the “first weekend/second weekend / third, etc” scale, SM3 fell behind SM2 on the first Monday for both films, pulling back ahead with a stronger second weekend, then falling permanently behind on the second Monday. SM3 fell permanently behind the first SM on the third Sunday.)
In other news, 2007 is now officially the biggest May in history, finally passing 2002 with Friday’s grosses.

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12 Responses to “The Weekend Slogs On…”

  1. mutinyco says:

    I’m getting the feeling that blockbuster fatigue is setting in, in terms of audience spending. If families are spending $50-100 a pop, per movie, this rate of spending isn’t going to keep up on their part.

  2. Joe Leydon says:

    Mutiny: You could be right. However, next week we’ll have two unusually strong films — Knocked Up and Mr. Brooks — aimed at the grown-ups among us. Will they do exceptionally well? Or — gulp! — cancel each other out?

  3. Direwolf says:

    Interesting thought, mutinyco. I had the same one myself this weekend. Or maybe it is the tight scheduling which makes it easy for people to put off P3 until next weekend. I guess we’ll see when next weekend rolls around as despite what most will see as P3 numbers that are a little lower than expected this weekend, as DP points out, if it holds well it will only be trailing P2 and P2 benefited from summer release and much larger weekdays.

  4. Lota says:

    got blockbuster fatigue…check this out.
    geeky fun, watch it before a Studio has YouTube remove it!

  5. MattM says:

    Seriously, someone thinks Mr. Brooks has the potential to do big business? Or any business at all? Dane Cook is a huge minus to the “classy” audience, while Costner/Moore/Hurt is a substantial minus to Cook’s audience. It strikes me as a film that would do adequate business in September or in the Spring, but something that will get completely swallowed up next weekend.

  6. Eric says:

    I suggested blockbuster fatigue five days ago, in the “Summer to Date” thread, and was dismissed. I’ll stand by it, although I’m wondering now if it’s not blockbusters per se, and simply that there hasn’t been anything really compelling yet– the summer so far has a fairly rote feel to it, like all we’re getting is sequels made only for the money.
    (Haven’t seen 28 Weeks Later yet, though, and am looking forward to it. Also have high hopes for the two Joe mentioned above.)

  7. Chicago48 says:

    So how come nobody’s mentioning the good boxo for Waitress. It’s been the 2nd best per screen winner since it’s release a month ago. It has made its meager budget back and will probably double it.

  8. David Poland says:

    There’s no sign of blockbuster fatigue. There is sign that huge openings lead to shorter big dollar runs. The illusion that every sequel should make more than the last is just that.

  9. sky_capitan says:

    that youtube clip is awesome
    if it gets deleted, I’ll scream

  10. mutinyco says:

    I wasn’t arguing blockbuster fatigue. I was arguing wallet fatigue.

  11. Joe Leydon says:

    Mutiny: And that’s a serious fatigue (especially for large families) that we often don’t figure into our b.o. calculations. Remember the back-to-back animated movies last summer?

  12. mutinyco says:

    Or King Kong vs. Narnia?…

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4