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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Weekend Estimates

Running to a last couple of movies here in Seatlle before returning to L.A., but Pirates 3 did pretty much as expected, maybe five percent further off the 3 day pace than could be considered a happy result for Weekend Two. Knocked Up did exactly as everyone I’ve spoken to in recent weeks expected… now we’ll see how leggy it is. The number on Mr. Brooks could be the start of a leggy, albeit small, run to the 40s or 50s… holding on to screens is going to be a big challenge for the seen-as-lame MGM. And Spidey 3 is holding a little better now than I would have expected. $330m is no longer out of the question.
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51 Responses to “Klady's Weekend Estimates”

  1. fnt says:

    Guess KNOCKED UP wasn’t so over-hyped, eh David?

  2. David Poland says:

    Well fnt, I’ve only spent a decade saying… “Opening Weekend Has Nothing To Do With The Movie Itself!”
    This opening is EXACTLY what I expected… and exactly what Universal and most other studios have been expecting for weeks. The only question is the legs. If you read 20 weeks, you’d see that I am right at 3 times this opening for this film.
    So yes, it has been overhyped. And we’ll see where it goes from here.

  3. Chicago48 says:

    Hey! give Waitress some credit…it’s doubled its money…and still in the top 5 of per screen earnings, on less than 600 screens. Way to go Waitress!

  4. lazarus says:

    Mr. Brooks is on its way to a $40 or $50 million dollar take?
    Huh? 9 million is probably more than anyone expected, but it’s going nowhere fast. The majority of moviegoers barely care about Costner to begin with (see: Rumor Has It, which even had the benefit of Aniston), let alone when he’s playing a murderer.
    You think word of mouth, which probably won’t be good anyway, is going to help it? This thing will be lucky to get past $25 million.
    All the people I know who didn’t see Knocked Up are still talking about it and are excited to see it. And people are going to tell others it’s hilarious before they mention the running time (if they noticed it).
    I suspect it’s going to hold very well.

  5. torqtump says:

    Pirates’ 62% drop is from the Fri.-Sun. Memorial weekend total, excluding Thursday night totals. That means its “real” drop was probably more like 67%. That’s not very good at all.

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    “Disturbia” has yet to hit the dollar houses, right? So we could be talking about a final domestic gross of, what, $80 million?

  7. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Yeah Dave is way off base with Knocked Up. The film takes a page from Annie Hall and There’s Something About Mary – sweet and low. A date film. An adult comedy. A leggy counter programmer for summer. No stars just wit. Kachingo. The train has left the station and DP is still saying its an overrated and not a contender. What will he say when it outgrosses 40YR OLD and hits 125m?

  8. jesse says:

    Dave, just to quibble a little bit over semantics… if Knocked Up did the same amount that “everyone” has been saying for weeks/months that it would do… wouldn’t that mean it’s been *correctly* hyped, rather than overhyped?
    Lazarus, I see your point about Brooks, but at the same time, the example you use — Rumor Has It — opened to similar numbers as Mr. Brooks (it opened on an odd day because of Christmas, but its three-day total was similar), and had a final gross in the 40’s. I’m not suggesting Rumor Has It was particularly well-liked either — but rather, that with a movie that skews older, audiences who don’t rush out first weekend can create better holds than you’d expect. I saw Brooks on Saturday night (after catching Knocked Up on Friday), and it was packed with older people. I even heard some 40/50somethings a few spots back from me in line making some kind of smug comment about hoping this wasn’t the line for Knocked Up (playing at the same theater). You’d be surprised what kind of trashy, chintzy crap gets seen as a more “adult” alternative by audiences at large; Knocked Up is a far more engaging, more rewarding film on every level, but these people were not interested. Costner + Demi probably = pleasant feelings of nostalgia for times when they went to the movies more often or something.

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    Jesse the audience I saw Mr. Brooks (which is fucking awful) with was the same. I was by far the youngest viewer there. The other 30 or so people at the Friday matinee I attended were in their 50s and above. Four people (two couples) walked out about halfway through and I got the impression that people did not care for it.

  10. Joe Leydon says:

    I think David is right: “Mr. Brooks” could sustain a leggy run to $40 million simply by appealing to 40/50 somethings — yeah, like myself — who still view Kevin Costner quite favorably. (Remember: “The Guardian” and “Open Range” wound up grossing over $50 million each.)
    But David: I still don’t get your earlier comment about “Knocked Up” appealing primarily to middle-aged folks. Or you do consider 30somethings to be middle-aged?

  11. jeffmcm says:

    Joe, the difference is that Open Range was actually a good movie; Mr. Brooks is opening at a more crowded time of the year and has markedly worse reviews.
    Waitress is tapping into the same market as My Big Fat Greek Wedding: both are shoddily-made movies that nonetheless have managed to find an underserved female market.
    When Knocked Up does higher than DP thinks it will, I look forward to the ‘I was wrong on that one but right on 90% of my other predictions’ post that he’ll make.

  12. mutinyco says:

    30 is the new 50.

  13. Stella's Boy says:

    Open Range and The Guardian also had higher opening weekends than Mr. Brooks. I believe they were in the mid-to-high teens. And yes, Open Range is actually a good movie (unlike the other two). It will not have staying power because it isn’t very well-liked and because of the crowded marketplace.

  14. Joe Leydon says:

    Stella, Jeff: So what you’re telling me is, we won’t get to see the two sequels?

  15. Stella's Boy says:

    Maybe direct-to-DVD Joe. I sure hope not. I actually like Costner as an actor, and even though I hardly expected Mr. Brooks to be a masterpiece, I was shocked at how bad it is.

  16. Rob says:

    If Mr. Brooks ends up with a higher multiplier than Knocked Up, I’ll eat my hat.

  17. Skyblade says:

    Yeah, Open Range had a couple of different things in its factor. It was a much better movie, it was released in August after all the blockbuster nuts are busted*, and I think in light of Pirates of the Carribean some people might have been wanting a Western in the marketplace. Also, as gritty and violent s it was, there was still a salt of the earth sensibility to it, as opposed to the somewhat reptillian nature of Mr. Brooks, which I think will give audiences the same discomfort a lot of “stalker films” do.
    *I think that we had two adult skewing hits is the result of May’s big budget threequel triad, a palette cleanser was needed much sooner.

  18. lazarus says:

    Jesse, a good point made about Rumor Has It, but my point was that was a film that Costner and Aniston still couldn’t break through ($40 million ain’t bad, but I imagine it was still below expectations), so I doubt that a film with him playing against type is going to work, utimately. Open Range and The Guardian both did well because he was featured in what people like to see him in. Sci-Fi fare like Waterworld or The Postman…not so much.
    Costner is a likeable guy, and his undeserved Oscar for Dances With Wolves notwithstanding, he doesn’t bother me too much. After Upside of Anger I was looking forward to seeing him in some smaller character roles like Jeff Bridges (who should still be getting more lead roles). But whoever had the idea to put him in a movie like this; the studio, his agent, whoever, has made a huge mistake.
    As counterprogramming to Knocked Up it may work for one weekend, but it has the ick factor mentioned above that is going to prevent it from getting recommended socially.
    I still stand by my thought that it won’t get out of the mid-twenties.
    BTW, I saw Bug today, and while not the masterpiece that some critics seem to think it is (Friedkin’s best? Not even close), a very unique and daring film coming from a has-been veteran. And Judd proves herself once again to be much more talented than her filmography would suggest.

  19. Tofu says:

    To agree with the above, Open Range’s success (outside of being a fantastic flick) was the August release. As said before, Mr. Brooks plays like a fall release that has been dropped into the wrong waters.
    Is it possible that Pirates 3 will have to struggle to match Pirates 1 on the domestic front? Colored me surprised, despite the obvious factors.

  20. Melquiades says:

    I’ll be very surprised if Knocked Up drops even as much as 30% next weekend. Word of mouth on this baby is going to be HUGE.
    The sold-out crowd I saw it with was thrilled, and we’re talking teens, “old” people, couples, friends. It hits on all cylinders for men and women alike, it’s friggin’ hilarious, and it’s very sweet without ever coming close to being cloying.
    This is the first great movie of the summer and the box office will reflect that, not in total gross but because it’s going to stick around for a long time after the threequels are out of the picture.

  21. Rothchild says:

    Knocked Up will easily make 150 million. I can’t guarantee it will hit 200, but 175 is not out or reach. Poland, I love you and your site, but you did say, “and Universal selling the idea that the high teens would be a happy success for Knocked Up.” People will still read you and respect your opinion if you ever admit that you’re wrong.
    Still, you were very, very right about Hairspray. It’s the complete fucking monster that no one realizes is coming.

  22. Rothchild says:

    Knocked Up will easily make 150 million. I can’t guarantee it will hit 200, but 175 is not out of reach. Poland, I love you and your site, but you did say, “and Universal selling the idea that the high teens would be a happy success for Knocked Up.” People will still read you and respect your opinion if you ever admit that you’re wrong.
    Still, you were very, very right about Hairspray. It’s the complete fucking monster that no one realizes is coming.

  23. Geoff says:

    $150 million is going to be a stretch for Knocked Up – it’s going to get good word of mouth, but people forget that 40 Year Old Virgin grossed its money in August and September, with very little competition.
    Knocked Up is getting mad competition for women with Ocean’s 13 in just its second weekend. I think it will probably top out at around $125 million and every one involved should be pretty happy with that.
    I don’t get the hype about Hairspray – what are reasonable expectations for this film? I don’t care how special it is, there is a ceiling for this kind of film. Moulin Rouge had all the summer love a film like that can get and it STILL topped out at $60 million. That sounds like a high-end prediction for Hairspray.

  24. Rob says:

    Moulin Rouge was a lot more niche/upmarket than Hairspray. The Hairspray trailer kills, and if it clicks with mall-dwelling girls and their parents, it could be pretty big.

  25. Joe Straat says:

    I don’t see how Mr. Brooks makes 40-50. I’d say 30 at most. Yes, it scews older and they’re not the front-loading type, but it’s also a piece of shit that’s in a VERY crowded market. Of course, I’m always the one who’s WAY wrong about grosses, so who knows. All I know is Mr. Brooks sucked on toast. If what is on screen is what was on the page, that is some of the laziest screenwriting I’ve seen in an “intelligent” drama. Develop a character. ANY character! I don’t care. Just do it! And when your climax relies on two characters meeting at a random location that has nothing to do with anything, you’re screwed and not in the good way.

  26. Lota says:

    Ocean’s 13 will have many paying people like me who could give a rat’s ass about the movie (which will likely be mediocre) but want to experience George Clooney and his charismatic ways.
    Knocked up might be funny…but Ocean’s has alot for for women to look at!

  27. Cadavra says:

    I finally saw the HAIRSPRAY trailer today, and I was shocked at the almost total absence of Travolta. It’s like they’re trying to hide him. So what was the point of jamming The Big Star into this role if you’re not gonna market him?
    BTW, the movie I saw was SHREK 3 (it wasn’t my choice). I wasn’t expecting a masterpiece, but I was truly stunned at what an empty, worthless, gaping abyss it is. That this POS will likely triple the gross of SURF’S UP makes me wanna vomit.

  28. jeffmcm says:

    I wouldn’t call Moulin Rouge an ‘upscale’ movie, I think ultimately its market was the same as Luhrmann’s Romeo & Juliet – teens. Hairspray will have to break out of that niche if it’s going to get anywhere.

  29. Cadavra-Travolta is the big fat woman in the trailer. Yeah, that was a lame joke, sorry.
    Did OCEANS 12 make any money at all?? I’ve tried to watch it twice and fell asleep both times.

  30. jeffmcm says:

    ^^^$362 million worldwide. I like to stick up for 012 because I think it was better than O11.

  31. Cain says:

    Off-topic question for an off-and-on reader:
    Jeff, I recall some time back in a post on the media you said you make a distinction to your students between “availability” and, argh, another word. At least I think it was you made the comment. I need to know what that other word was because I’ve completely forgotten it. Don’t disappoint and say it was “accessibility” because it was much better than that. A relatively mundane point, but well-phrased as I recall.
    Please return to regularly scheduled box office prognostications.

  32. movielocke says:

    “And people are going to tell others it’s hilarious before they mention the running time”
    I finally saw it today and felt it was around 100 minutes long, was it longer? It was a very sharply put together film, my only complaint on a technical level was that it was all medium close ups, dialogue scenes never played out in anything but shot reverse shot, but that’s typical for so many movies today that it’s an annoyance I’ve just learned to note once and then switch off.
    As for Hairspray, I’m getting a Mrs. Doubtfire meets High school Musical vibe from it. and if the film connects with either of those films’ (or types of films) audiences successfully it’ll be very profitable.

  33. ployp says:

    Why is Travolta playing a woman in Hairspray?

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    Cain: I think it’s something I said to my students — When talking about great movies on DVD, you should never confuse availability (or accessibility) with exposure. Yeah, the films are out there. But that doesn’t mean they’ll watch them. We’ve had the complete works of Charles Dickens available in every big-city library (and most small-city libraries) for about a century now. How many people do you know have read them all? How many have read even one?

  35. Stella's Boy says:

    See Rob when I saw the Hairspray trailer, it did anything but kill. It was nothing but confused faces and silence.

  36. MattM says:

    Hairspray is clearly aiming straight for the “High School Musical” audience. Last year, “Step Up” tried a similar angle to open at 20M and go to 65M. Hairspray has stars that market to the tween/teen audience (Efron and Bynes in particular), a “safer” rating, and stars that are going to get adults in as well (Travolta, Walken).
    If “High School Musical 2” were opening in theatres, it could do a 40M+ opening weekend, I think. Hairspray won’t do that, but it could easily do north of 25M.

  37. Stella's Boy says:

    I realize that High School Musical has a very devoted following. I know the DVD and soundtrack have been huge. However, could a HSM theatrical release really open to $40M+? Is the following that big?

  38. MattM says:

    The premiere of HSM drew 7.7 million viewers (and that’s before it became the super phenomonon it’s become). Assume about half of that (4M) goes to the theatre at an average price of $7 a head, and you’re to 28M. Both of those numbers are conservative.
    DVD sold 1.2 million copies in its first six days, and soundtrack has sold 3.8 million copies total.

  39. “when I saw the Hairspray trailer, it did anything but kill. It was nothing but confused faces and silence.”
    So you physically turns around scanned the poorly-lit faces and decided everyone looked confused and that people were actually being, shock, quiet in a cinema. Did you get out of your seat and see what all the people in front of you were doing too?
    I also don’t believe that anyone can full tell if a trailer goes down well. Are these audiences that are apparently eating it up screamin’ and hootin’ and hollerin’ and getting up and dancing?!
    Maybe the people seeing Mr Brooks were having flashbacks to the late ’80s/early ’90s when Costner and Moore were big stars?! Cause that’s one crazy arsed cast they got there. Plus Dane Cook? WTF? Gotta say though, Rumor Has It did quite well overseas if I’m not mistaken. It made $90mil worldwide, so that’s pretty decent.
    It’s a shame that Bug got effectively squished. Has anyone here seen it? I heard only good things. Of course, much like the similarly well-reviewed Black Snake Moan, it’s flop-status will mean it’s release elsewhere will be long and drawn out if at all. Pity, cause I really wanted to see both of them.

  40. turned*
    Also, High School Musical 2 is still only going straight-to-tv. Strange. That was made of money.

  41. Stella's Boy says:

    You can be a real asshole sometimes Kamikaze. If you have a brain in your head, it isn’t very difficult to see how a crowd is reacting to a trailer. People often talk about how a trailer plays to a crowd. For starters, the theater wasn’t completely dark when the trailers were playing. Some side lights were still on. Also, I had a “What the fuck?” reaction to the trailer, so yes, I did look around to see how other people were reacting. Since I have excellent vision and a brain in my head, it was quite easy for me to judge how the crowd reacted to the trailer. Maybe you’re just dumb and blind. I find that very easy to believe.

  42. Speaking of odd trailers…
    My mom and I saw BUG last week and came in about a minute into that stupid HOSTEL 2 opening sequence. No one had any idea what the hell was going on and I saw 3 different people go ask if the theater put the right movie on. Lame, lame, lame idea.

  43. Nicol D says:

    Rented High School Musical a couple of months ago to see what all the fuss was about.
    Loved it! I actually thought the sequel was going to go theatrical and was disappointed when I found out it wasn’t.
    Was it as polished as Chicago or Dreamgirls? No.
    But I’d watch it again before either of those and I liked both.
    I agree it could have been a first (theatrical sequel to a TV franchise) and made a mint as a summer sleeper.

  44. Cain says:

    Joe!
    Yes, it WAS you — I must have been mistaken. Availability with EXPOSURE. That’s it. 🙂

  45. Chucky in Jersey says:

    I wouldn’t call Moulin Rouge an ‘upscale’ movie …
    A lot of arthouses picked up “Moulin Rouge” when it went national. That was following a 2-week exclusive in NYC — at the 1,000-seat Ziegfeld Theatre.
    Jeffmcm is cheering because Universal promoted “Knocked Up” by name-checking and got a top-3 opening.

  46. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, you are the _only one_ who cares about name-checking. I only post in response to you because you have a mysterious knee-jerk hatred of it that you have never bothered to explain.

  47. Geoff says:

    Ok, some of you guys are making the point of High School Musical and how Hairspray could appeal to that audience. Granted, I really have no clue about the teen audience. I was shocked when Step Up out-opened World Trade Center, last year. But STILL…..even the teen movies that open decently (Step Up, Stomp the Yard) have a ceiling. No audience is more front-loaded. And this film has to open against Chuck and Larry, which is going to do $40 million plus, for sure. New Line is going to need traction on that opening weekend and it will be tough to come by – if they were opening it in September, then they might have a chance. Remember, this is the studio that found blockbuster audiences for Seven and Rush Hour in September.
    The one wild card to this is Travolta, though. How the hell did Wild Hogs make almost $170 million? He had something to do with it. If he does the publicity rounds for this thing, which he is always good at, then who knows?

  48. Geoff, Step Up and Stomp the Yard had a ceiling because they were simply aimed at teens. But Hairspray is aimed at teens and preteens and their parents, so the ceiling is a bit higher.
    Stella, because nobody was screaming “wow, that looks amazing!” you assume everyone had the same reaction as you? Did everybody have weird contorted looks of confusion on their face?
    Maybe it’s just the difference between American and Australian audiences, but it’s hard to guage the reaction of a large cinema of patrons in the few seconds between one trailer and the next. Maybe a few people around where I’m sitting, but generally I can’t tell (nor do I particularly care) if the person 3 rows back or in front was excited or not. I could make a guess based on their vague facial expressions I suppose, but it’s not exactly much to base an argument on.
    The only trailer recently I could say got a big reception was the MA-rated Knocked Up trailer (that showed at the restrictive MA15+ rated Zodiac) as the cinema was laughing a lot (it featured lots of swear words and dick jokes so, naturally, hilarious). Something like Hairspray isn’t exactly big on laughs so unless the entire cinema let off a cry of “WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!” I find it hard to believe that you could legitimately guage the reaction. I remember seeing the trailer for Woody Allen’s Match Point a couple of years back and hearing some people around me murmer when it came up saying “a film by Woody Allen”, but I couldn’t tell what the people down the front though.
    It’s my theory whenever anybody mentions how well a trailer goes down in the cinema. I have a brain, I just don’t use it to make generalisations on a bunch of people I have no way of actually knowing.

  49. Chucky in Jersey says:

    How the mighty have fallen: “Spider-Man 3” will lsat only 5 weeks in the Hamptons — a couple of UA theaters will drop it to open “Ocean’s Thirteen”.
    I remember that the first “Spider-Man” had a solid 8-week run in East Hampton. Outlasted “Star Wars Episode 2”!

  50. Stella's Boy says:

    It was a small theater Kamikaze, and yes, they did all have an easy-to-read expression on their face. I’m not sure why that is so difficult for you to comprehend or believe. I have no secret agenda against this movie. It is not rocket science, and I don’t give a fuck if you believe me or not. You’re an asshole.

  51. I just find it hard to imagine an entire theatre of people with these confused looks on their faces, not whether you say it happened or not. I think the site of an entire cinema of patrons with WTF? looks on their face could be quite comical.
    (thanks for your lovely compliments. You’re a darl)

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4