June 24, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

The Evan Almighty wave crested at an estimated $32.3 million to lead all titles in the domestic marketplace. The session also featured the national bow of the Stephen King chiller 1408 in second place with a sturdy $20.4 million and a disappointing $3.9 million bow for the highly lauded saga of journalist Daniel Pearl in A Mighty Heart. Additionally there were effective limited launches of the offbeat thriller You Kill Me and the French adaptation of Lady Chatterley’s Lover. The single screen sneak peak of Michael Moore’s hot button Sicko was playing at near capacity with a three-day gross of $72,300.

Anticipation ran as high as $40 million for Evan Almighty, a loose continuation of the Jim Carreyvehicle Bruce Almighty. Promoting the film as the most expensive comedy of all-time was no asset as it’s essentially a family film with more warmth than hilarity. Crossing over to its true audience will be crucial to the film’s fortunes as its theatrical run continues.

Of late adaptation of the Stephen King canon have been disappointing both artistically and commercially. So, 1408 was a pleasant surprise as it effectively mined a tale of frightening claustrophobia. Still it’s future hinges on effective and vociferous word-of-mouth as the release schedule ramps up for higher profile entries in the coming weeks.

Revenues for the current weekend should clock in at roughly $135 million for a 9% decline from seven days later. It also abated by 5% from 2006 when Click debuted to $40 million and Cars added $23.3 million in its third lap at the box office. The year to date continues to lose traction with box office now just 3% ahead of last year and admissions relatively consistent. Box office for the summer season that began with the release of Spider-Man 3, however, lags behind last year by 7% in what was promised to be a record period with an unbeatable slate.

Despite a spate of hefty openings, tentpoles are experiencing larger than usual drops with last weekend freshman Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer taking it on the chin by 65% andOcean’s Thirteen experiencing a 42% diminution. Among mainstream releases only Knocked Upis noticeably exceeding expectations with its cume crossing $100 million on Friday.

The preponderance of popcorn titles has been good for a handful of alternative titles such as Onceand La Vie en Rose. But the initial response for the sober-sided A Mighty Heart was decidedly less than potent with a per theater average of just a dot more than $2,900 that probably will require a marketing rethink and additional ad support.

Judging from the single screen launch of Michael Moore’s already incendiary examination of U.S. health care in Sicko, the filmmaker may once again be confronting media grilling and box office nirvana of Fahrenheit 911 proportions. It would certainly put the lie to controversy being bad for the box office.

This weekend’s limited debs displayed promise as well as the need for continued nurturing. You Kill Me, the askew tale of a hit man seeking a rebound from his alcohol addiction generated in excess of $220,000 from 37 sanctions while France’s recent Cesar winner Lady Chatterley’s Lover disrobed $34,400 from five exposures and American indie effort Broken English garnered $53,600 from seven venues.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – June 22-24, 2007

Global Releases: To June 21, 2007

Domestic Market Share: To June 21, 2007

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