If Fox’s number on F42 is $1.6 million over the original rip-off’s opening weekend, you can be pretty sure that they are really a little behind the first film this weekend. (Mojo got a figure of $1.3m from the studio.) Essentially, a non-event. And that was pretty much the tone of this weekend. Nothing was really shocking, for better or worse.
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[twitter-widget username="DavidPoland" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"][twitter-widget username="MCNTweets" hiderss="true" hidereplies="true" hidefrom="true" items="3" showts="60" title=" " targetBlank="true"]
It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Oh for crying out loud, it’s still not Spiderman TWO.
Can’t wait to see Dead or Alive!
I look forward to the gloating when FF2 drops over 60% next weekend.
No kidding, Spiderman 2 isn’t playing anywhere around here anymore. I’d probably go see it again if some theater around here showed it in DLP and DTS-I’d prefer it to Spiderman 3, anyway.
I think you are completely underestimating Transformers. This movie stands well positioned to make some serious cash. Now that the “big 3” have come and gone and generated serious backlash, if Transformers is a halfway decent piece of entertainment, it could benefit from the boredom generated by the “big 3”
Is Disney sharing #s for Ratatouille sneaks?
Why is Transformers a niche event and Harry Potter isn’t?
Harry Potter has crossover appeal to kids and adults.
Transformers is mostly kid/geek appeal.
Harry Potter has hundreds of millions of books sold.
Transformers is a movie based on a toy line.
Still, i agree that Transformers is being underestimated. I think this thing has Independence Day written all over it.
Looks like SURF’S UP will be lucky to end up with maybe one-sixth of SHREK THE THIRD. I’m gonna be ill.
Bet Transformers comes within $20M of Potter.
I think Transformers will be huge. Lots of people who aren’t already sold on it will be once they see the new trailer.
A new trailer? So close to release?
“Why is Transformers a niche event and Harry Potter isn’t?”
Transformers is 1987. Harry Potter is 2007. That said, I’ll be in line opening day for them both. I remember 1987.
Maybe it’s just new to me. It starts off with Shia getting his car and features lots and lots of hot robot-on-robot action. It was much better than the first full-length trailer which had too much military stuff for me.
Okay, DP, I will accept this gloating about Hostel Part 2’s failure if you agree to eat crow if Hairspray fails. Deal?
“Is Disney sharing #s for Ratatouille sneaks?”
Yes, the numbers go to Pirates as that Sat. night screening was replaced with Ratatouille
“Maybe it’s just new to me. It starts off with Shia getting his car and features lots and lots of hot robot-on-robot action.”
That trailer premiered a month ago. It’s pretty good. Got a great reaction when I saw it with Pirates 3.
That said, I tend to agree with Poland that Transformers is over rather than underhyped.
i think the hype on transformers would have been just right if it wasnt for the MTV movie awards.
that shameless shit was embarrassing.
Transformers is going to do better business than the May 3. For sure. Toy line, shmoy line, those trailers suggest this is gonna be big. Michael Bay big.
Even if Transformers will do some big numbers, it
I agree with Don Murphy. Stars collide!
you know, not having seen the finished product, i can’t make the assertion whether or not Transformers will win the summer. But in this landscape of underperforming, i wouldn’t rule it out.
it would have to be a crowdpleaser of crowdpleasers.
some friends have seen it. one of them told me the final 45 minutes is the best action sequence he’s seen on film since Return of the King.
When does Potter come out? That’s the only thing i see standing in the way of legs (or wheels) on Transformers. That steals all the kids away and their grubby, greasy box office money
“Yes, the numbers go to Pirates as that Sat. night screening was replaced with Ratatouille”
So in other words they are NOT sharing their #s.
Don, the commitment is not to win the summer – your movie has to be the highest grossing movie of the year. That’s what you were originally discussing.
Transformers won’t win the year nor will it win the summer. It’s crazy to think so.
I am 35 years old and have a 9 year old daughter. Until the second trailer hit, we both had zero interest in the film. It held little nostalgia appeal and I’ve loathed every Bay film since The Rock.
But since that trailer? Damn.
Now it is the most anticipated summer popcorn movie for us. And, surprisingly to me, she is more interested in this than Potter.
Yes, I know, the subjective experiences of two people does not a trend make, but I think there are probably a helluva lot of people that share my story. I think this thing will be pretty fucking big.
I have no problem with Transformers taking off… but I also know that the studio is not anxious for non-geek/non-whores to see the film… never trust a junket crowd… never!
I believe $200 million domestic IS huge for Transformers. As I’ve written before, July 4 is a good date, but not a great date (particularly this year). Harry Potter right behind is not helpful.
After Spider-Man 2, the biggest 6-day number for any movie opening around the July 4 holiday was War of the Worlds with $113m in 6 and $234m total. If you want to believe that this film will open bigger than that, be my guest. I would say that WotW numbers would be a major success for this film and if it does $90m/$200m, it is every bit the hit that some in here – inclusing you, Don – seem to think is where it’s headed.
You think you’re going to do Spider-Man 2 numbers? That would be what it would take to “win the summer.” Good luck, pally. You will have that burger and a year’s worth of fries if you are right.
Noah – I never thought that Hostel 2 would do this poorly.
I am continuing to poke at Roth’s carcass because even after everyone at the studio and on his team decided we would call the dogs off one another (11 days ago), he continues to attack and lie. So a few gentle strokes back are simply paying him his due. You’ll not see any of it on any of the sites after tomorrow.
David, you’re totally going to have to buy Don Murphy a Kobe Beef Blue Cheese Bacon Burger at Lucky Strikes. Just sayin’, is all.
I still see no reason why Harry Potter wouldn’t still technically be considered a niche event. Yes, Transformers is based on a toy line, but Harry Potter is based on books that I’m sure are still dismissed by a fair amount of people as ‘Kid’s Books’. In the simplest of terms, I would say that Transformers is a big action movie coming from arguably the most successful action movie director working, and Harry Potter is a fantasy film based on a hugely successful series of books. The fact that Harry Potter is ‘2007’ is irrelevant.
dave, which spiderman 2 numbers are you talking about? the ones from Spiderman 2 or the ones you keep posting for Spiderman 3?
Ummm, yeah. Who are we not showing the movie to? A twit like Manohla Dargis who references everything via Pulp Fiction and who means nothing to anyone? Not sure what the reference is. Anywho- David- I will say this again- Biggest Film of the Year. Mcm Gargles. You buy fries. The fact that you think War of the Worlds is a comparison means you ain’t getting what this property means to people for the last twenty plus years.
It’s still disgusting it’s in the LA Film Fest. Can you talk about that?
Murphy is absolutely right. I can’t believe Dave is calling Transformers a “niche” film. This thing has EVENT movie written all over it, and I don’t mean in the way that every studio calls every summer film an “event”. I mean in a T2/Jurassic Park way. It’s got new, GREAT effects (which means something considering how numb to most CG audiences have become nowadays. When was the last time anyone gasped over special effects?). It’s got a killer summer concept, based on a franchise that resonates with several different demographics.
This is how big the movie will be: I, and virtually all of my friends, HATE Michael Bay. Yet I, and virtually all of my friends, are very much looking forward to the film. The trailers and TV spots have been slam dunks.
Biggest movie of the summer, easy.
THolly aka the idjit who posted slander about me on the Thompson blog- yeah it’s so disgusting that the LA Film Fest is actually going to make some money from a film people really want to see. How deplorable!
Strange to be at this point so close to July, but if the makers of Transformers (or any film) want to boast having the summer’s best movie, all they have to do is give us one THAT DOES NOT SUCK. That’s where the bar is this summer.
Not a great one… not even good one… just one measly flick that doesn’t leave us exhausted or depressed after sitting through it.
After two months of shitty weekends, that’s all we want now, folks: The good old days of MERELY ADEQUATE FARE.
Love to watch this debate on Transformers – true believers on each side.
But as I have been saying for almost year, I agree with Dave on this one – this is a movie based on toys(!) – are women or people over 40 going to pay to see it? Shia is not going to make much of a difference.
This does not mean I think it’s going to flop. Originally, I thought it would do Spy Kids numbers ($110 mill), but now I am thinking it will probably do numbers similar to The Rock and Bad Boys II ($130 to $150 mill). And those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.
Best case scenario is that it reaches the heights of previous Bay epics, Pearl Harbor and Armageddon – $200 million. If this movie can reach those numbers, then Paramount should be very proud. But even if it goes that high, this film would barely make the top five for the year, let alone the summer.
Mr. Murphy, it’s all about setting reasonable expectations – let’s not get crazy, here. Potter is easily going to do $120 million (Wednesday opening) in Transformer’s second week – how much will that leave for your film? Just the realities of the marketplace. THEN you have Adam Sandler, THEN you have The Simpsons, THEN you have the return of Jason Bourne, THEN you have Rush Hour 3 – most of those films should open to well over $50 million, targeting much of the same audience. AND you have a PG-13 Die Hard the weekend before with Justin Long, who is just as prevalent with the youngsters as Shia.
Bold prediction: Ratatoulle will win the July 4th weekend in a squeaker about $60 mill over five days, just a couple of mill ahead of Transformers, which will drop 55% each following weekend.
Side note: do not take this as simple Bay-hating. Fact is, since the mid-’90’s, every Bay summer epic has performed below what I expected it would do, with the exception of Bad Boys II – Pearl Harbor, Armageddon, The Island.
Guys like him, Rob Cohen, and Antoine Fuqua can frame beautiful explosions for kick-ass trailers, but in general, their films do not connect with all segments of the mass audience, out there.
20 years ago, Bay would be the biggest thing out there, probably as big as Cameron was.
But this the ’00’s and comedy trumps action, more often than not. Yeah, even Pirates – tell me those films would have done half as well if not for the humor that Depp brought and it was the center of each marketing campaign, too.
Don. get Bay to direct the next Ben Stiller laughfest and he’ll get the grosses you so desire.
Off the subject but this question has been puzzling me all weekend: what would you say is the quintessential Hollywood romance film (comedy or drama) that made gobs of money but perpetuates an onerous, unrealistic expectation of how relationships can or should be? Something that’s the anti-thesis of “Eternal Sunshine,” where the leads get together at the end and live happily ever after but the film didn’t really earn their happiness and it’s all very contrived, yet audiences still attended in droves. I generally stay away from rom-coms so I can’t muster too much animosity towards any particular film that I think fits the description I’ve provided and I’m curious to see what kind of responses I get. Thanks for the help.
Hoju, I would say that Pretty Woman would be the too-obvious answer to your question. The appeal of that film still eludes me.
Still the old trailer for Transformers on Apple Quicktime.
It’s Michael Bay. Maybe he’s learned something about telling a story from Speilberg, The Island was promising-my emotional reaction to Michael Clark Duncan’s “I want to live!” kind of caught me off guard.
So perhaps his storytelling has improved. I hope Transformers doesn’t give me that Bad Boys-how-can-two-charismatic-actors-be-so-emotionally-off-putting vibe?
Blush with shame, Don. It’s corrupt, bankrupt and creating disinterest in the LA Festival.
The comparison to War of the Worlds is not really about Transformers… it’s about history. I love that you can so easily discount $200 million domestic or assume that franchise interest assures teh next tier of numbers. But how can I argue the case with you if you don’t give a shit about history?
Only 41 movies have ever done $250m domestic… 18 of the 41 were sequels, 5 more were animated, 3 more directed by Spielberg, 3 more were either the Best Picture winner or the first of a franchise that won Best Picture… 2 had major religious backing…
That leaves Men In Black, Batman, How The Grinch Stole Christmas, Home Alone, Harry Potter, The Sixth Sense, Independence Day, Spider-Man, Pirates of the Caribbean, and Star Wars.
So… is Transformers the next Independence Day or Men In Black or Batman? Hmmmm…
Also not amongst these films – The DaVinci Code, any of the X-Men films, any of the Superman films, 300, and any Michael Bay movies.
Some people can’t take “yes” for an answer.
“I mean in a T2/Jurassic Park way. It’s got new, GREAT effects (which means something considering how numb to most CG audiences have become nowadays. When was the last time anyone gasped over special effects?).”
Which effects are you referring to? The transformations are cool, but not really “OH-MY-EFFING-GOD!!!” cool. I haven’t heard any gasping during the trailer; and yours is the first comment I’ve seen putting the FX against T2 and JP. Are you talking about something that isn’t in the trailer?
In response to Hoju’s off topic question: look to the films of Nancy Meyers and Nora Ephron, but not too long or you’ll turn to stone.
I can see FF42 dropping a fair bit next week, but what’s there to take over? Doesn’t everyone remember how mediocre Bruce Almighty was? My wife and I will probably see it because of the animal work, but I was not impressed by Evan or Brick for that matter.
“But how can I argue the case with you if you don’t give a shit about history?”
Why bother arguing the case with someone with a personal stake in the damned thing in the first place? You might as well be telling somebody that the new love of their life isn’t the hottest piece of ass on the planet and she isn’t going to be around all that long either. You’d get farther seranading Marlie Matlin over the phone.
Hallick, you summed it all up right there; it’s Don’s job to be a cheerleader for the film.
I’m glad someone said it. He’s a producer (right?) of the film, of course he’s going to be hyping it up as the event of the summer and yada blah etc. I want Transformers to do well because it’s not a sequel, but I don’t want it to do TOO well because I don’t want it to be the #1 of the summer (which I don’t think it could possibly be anyway). That way Don would get smug satisfaction.
Also, if it’s a big hit we’ll get a sequel and then… well, yeah. The cycle continues.
If Transformers makes less than $250 mil, I will be absolutely SHOCKED. And I’m thinking much closer to $300 million, honestly.
Initially, I saw Michael Bay’s name and assumed he would blow my childhood up into a mash of mind-numbing explosions that would disappoint me beyond the capacity for rational thought. All people I came across chuckled whenever I brought up the name of the film, too. It was pretty much a joke after that first teaser.
Then came the real footage. And now people are most certainly NOT chuckling. They’re intrigued. My girlfriend, who will not let me admit this to any of our friends, has declared she adamantly wants to see it. Her precise wording was, “It reminds me Independence Day!”
She’s not the only one, either. People in theatres are ooh’ing and ahh’ing whenever the newest trailer comes on. My father recently brought it up on the phone. A class of students I help out with recently used half a discussion section to talk about it (it’s a film class, so it’s partially on-topic). A 7-year-old kid (well, he looked 7) in the drug store the other day went over and pointed out a gummy candy toy and said, “Bumblebee!”
This film is exciting the masses like no other I’ve seen this year, and I can’t wait to see it. And I’m not the only one.
I guess I should clarify that my girlfriend did add an “of” to her phrasing of “It reminds me of Independence Day!” She’s no retard, although I seemingly have a corner on that market at the moment 🙂
Among us college geeks and whores, Transformers is a must-see. That movie will have big numbers.
I’d also like to add that I haven’t seen a response to an ad campaign like this since Pirates 1. I (rather rashly, but nonetheless) predicted $200 million for that film (and I have friends in Hollywood that can back me up on that). What we saw was that the quality of the film pushed it beyond the $200 million range and on into the $300 million echelon. Among us, only Don has seen the film thus far, and while I recognize he is touting something he’s invested heavily in, a kickass film is a kickass film. He’s really the only one in a position to tell us if it has $250/$300+ potential.
Poland’s comps on this feature are fairly sketchy in my estimation. History is important, obviously, but you have to figure out the PROPER history in order to project. I think that’s where Poland’s biggest issues are on Transformers. Was War of the Worlds a fun action movie with wondrous spectacle? No. It was a horror movie. And a mediocre one at that. Adrenaline, fun, and epic are all in the mix with Transformers, and that SCREAMS Independence Day in terms of a comp. I’d love to hear others that people have, but War of the Worlds is one of the worst comparables I’ve heard thus far. No way Transformers comes out with those type of numbers with all it brings to the table. And if it’s as good as I think it will be, the floor starts at $300 mil.
I would be very surprised if TRANSFORMERS made less than $250 million. I don’t think that film can be placed in the DIE HARD, RATATOUILLE, EVAN ALMIGHTY camp – it’s an entity of its own now.
I can see TRANSFORMERS kicking SHREK’S arse (the latter is sputtering towards $300 million) but don’t think it can beat SPIDER and PIRATES.
Having said that, if there is one thing we are ignoring now…the replayability factor…so far SPIDEY 3, SHREK and PIRATES (almost 3 hours length) were met with mediocre word of mouth (at best) – if TRANSFORMERS delivers the goods, the thrills, the excitement etc, and people leave the theater happy and kids wanting to see it again, that could be a deciding factor in how the film ultimately does.
Don’t underestimate the Steven Spielberg aura around the film either. Kids *know* who Spielberg is and like his flicks.
Tranformers is being released in 2007, not 1997. Different landscape. It has much more competition than Independence Day and have we seen the zeitgeist image. You know, the one that makes people sit up and go “okay, we are seeing that movie?” Independence Day had several.
Just a thought…
TRANSFORMERS offers something that THE MATRIX and JURASSIC PARK had – a new visual reference. Anyone who can’t excited at seeing two robots wrestle on an elevated overpass has murdered their inner child long ago. I can’t wait to see it.
Don Murphy, congratulations on what’s sure to be a huge success.
I’ll admit to being swayed by the 2nd TRANSFORMERS trailer I saw but when I mentioned to my wife that I thought it looked like fun she laughed it off and told me to start calling some of my guy friends to go with me. She had *zero* interest (zero as in I couldn’t drag her to see the film) and she’s usually a pretty good barometer about what the women are looking for in a big summer film. She’s even a Michael Bay fan.
So, I think there still might be some trouble connecting with the female demographic and it’s going to need this to get anywhere near the numbers you’re prediciting.
I got a fair comparison for you: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 135 million in 1990 adjusts to 210 million today. It should make more than the 1986 movie at 6 million, at least.
Hallick,
As a previous poster said, this is a *new* visual experience. The robots presented in the trailers look flawless, and most importantly – convincing. I most certainly did hear gasps at screenings where the trailer played, specifically the first time the jet transformed into a robot in mid-air. I compare this to JP and T2 because it is precisely the kind of film that folks have been insisting is the absolute one movie they want to see this summer pretty much since the first teaser.
If you can’t see how those effects look exciting to most folks, than I’d suggest you either need to see less movies. Or more.
THOLLY Then maybe we need one less Film Festival …. Seriously, the gesture of screening in TWO theatres and making them part of our premiere was a positive one. What’s your problem? Don’t buy a ticket then.
David I care a lot about history. I was trained by Art Murphy after all. The originator of the numbers. You are the mere Numbers Guardian. But then, Art would be surprised annually, and then pull some explanation out of his ass as to why he wasn’t really wrong. I can dismiss War of the Worlds because it had NO nostalgia value, no name recognition, Tom Cruise on the start of the Crazy Factor and wasn’t that good. We have a great film that is testing and tracking through the damn roof. Why shouldn’t I think this will do $300 plus? And when it does you can claim you didn’t read the flayrob on the treadle correctly and you meant we would beat Pirates.
Geoff ROTFLMAO- a movie about Rats (which will be fun) and Die Hard with a Walker? Yes, I am now officially convinced we need to move our date. Never mind that both DH Walker and FF2 moved away FROM US.
I too think Transformers will be much bigger than expected.
I actually think the cartoon franchise part is a plus, but not the only factor. It’s just that it looks unlike anything we’ve seen in the fantasy genre before. Kind of like Jurassic Park.
I also think the Die Hard franchise made a huge mistake going for the Kevin Smith crowd. By doing that, they chose a demo that wasn’t really around when the original was out and for those of us that were…well, I’ll be at Transformers.
Looks very entertaining.
And Nicol, does the Kevin Smith crowd care at all about PG-13 movies, even if he directed it or is in it (see Catch & Release and Jersey Girl)?
With regard to POTTER: speaking on behalf of the over-40 crowd, I have 100% interest in POTTER, and 5% in TRANSFORMERS. (Actually, it’s 0%, but I’ve met Don and found him an okay guy, so I don’t wanna piss him off too much.)
Romances with unrealistic endings: TOOTSIE. Hoffman has the choice of the pretty, talented, utterly devoted Teri Garr character, or the bigoted, heavy-drinking, untalented, slutty (but gorgeous, big-boobed blonde) Jessica Lange character. Guess who he winds up with. It’s as if THE GRADUATE ended with him going off with Mrs. Robinson. It ruins (for me) what is otherwise a great movie.
you met me?
anyway
doesn’t piss me off… tracking says otherwise for your age bracket… but then you’ll go just to make me happy right? RIGHT?
DIE HARD net reports state it has supposedly tested very well but haven’t seen any reviews on AICN or otherwise.
Imho, I think Fox dropped the ball on DIE HARD. By neutering it to PG-13, adding a kid sidekick, featuring Kevin Smith in the trailer, and downplaying any real threat or sadistic violence, they have joined the crowd of summer PG action flicks like TRANSFORMERS, BOURNE etc.
Had they stuck to a R, lost the kid sidekick and basically gone for the hard action crowd who grew up with RAMBO and DIE HARD, they could have had more momentum going into the summer movie season and potentially higher grosses. It would have been the summer’s first R-rated action popcorn flick – films like 300, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN etc can make a nice chunk of change (over $200 million) if they go apeshit with the gung-ho violence.
What was Fox thinking when they featured Kevin Smith in a lame “comedic” sequence? Did they hope to bring in the DOGMA or MALLRATS crowd? All 20 of them? Cause the fanboys geeks won’t come, they want hard R violence and ‘yippe kay yee mofa!’ and thats why they went crazy for the JOHN RAMBO trailer at AICN.
I can take my JAMES BOND and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE and TRUE LIES at PG13 cause that’s the way they were meant to be: escapist fun. But not John Fucking McLane.
Don – “Die Hard with a walker”? C’mon, dude. No need to take that shot. McClane’s still the fuckin’ man, even if the Die Hard series only produced one good film, the original.
Stella,
The Die Hard franchise label will supercede the PG-13 rating.
I still think Fox will end up regretting the decision. Just as everyone I know is looking forward to Transformers, the Smith Die Hard thing is very polarizing. People either love him or hate him.
He may only have a cameo but to many, he is a noxious presence that says ‘juvenile’ comedy…right this way.
His presence may not make or break the film, but I do believe it will hurt it as much as it may help.
I’m as big of a cynic about Michael Bay and Transformers as anyone I know and yet, when I look at all the summer movies, it’s the one big one that stands out as promising something we haven’t seen before. For that reason alone I could see it doing better than people are predicting.
Of course, it has to deliver on its promise, but if it does, Mr. Murphy might be right.
Smith is just one reason I have no interest in Live Free or Die Hard. There’s also the rating, the sidekick and the director. IMO there are way too many negatives.
Do people seriously think that John Rambo is capable of grossing more than maybe $40 million though? It doesn’t have the inspirational/family vibe that Rocky Balboa could ride to $70m over the holidays, plus it looks like something that needs to go direct to video – and we’ve all seen just how valuable that AICN/geek crowd money is.
I can’t believe so many folks are obsessing over Smith in Die Hard. I’ll be shocked if he has more than a few minutes screen time. It’s not even fair to say he’s a big part of the trailer – he’s used as an in-joke at the very end.
Die Hard 4 is going to suck because Len Wiseman is a shitty director. They should have just hired Woo. Or better yet, I would have loved to see what someone like Jonathan Mostow could have done with a Die Hard movie.
Like I said, for me Smith is just one of many reasons. He’s certainly not the primary one.
AmblinMan and assuming your name is not Spielberg related- PG 13 Die Hard ten years later is just weak sauce. Willis hasn’t had a hit film this decade. Tis over for him.
Transformers is fun, different, crazy and exciting. And it has Peter Cullen. ‘Nuff said.
Hey Don, I’m curious: what’s your favorite movie so far this year to gross less than, say, $50m? I’m wondering that the perspective of a Hollywood inside guy is, independent of, you know, a movie you worked on.
Don – You don’t have to sell me on your film. I hate Bay and I still can’t wait to see it. I don’t disagree with your take on this Die Hard or BRuce Willis as an action star, but is it necessary? Even if the movie sucks, which it probably does, Willis will still be the best thing in it and probably worth the price of a matinee.
The name is Spielberg related, but I personally have NO relationship to the gentleman or his company.
MCM
Zodiac
I think Dave is underestimating Transformers, and have said so before. Women are an important demographic, but I also know that quite a few of my female friends (age mid-late twenties) are really wanting to see the film. They grew up in the 80s. They may not have been huge fans of the show, but their brothers were…and nostalgia is a powerful thing. What was a passing interest then, is now a fond love for those days long gone.
As for the over 40 crowd, I know a couple guys that think the movie looks like crap. They’re both now over 40, and I told them they are missing the boat on this one. Of course they think it’s crap. It’s based on a TV cartoon that was on as they were teenagers when they weren’t interested in cartoons. Still, you’ll probably get a fair share of over 40 taking their kids…or the kids taking them.
It’s a pretty crowded summer though, and ultimately, the movie that could win out for the BO crown could be the one that is not too long and provides the best entertainment (so probably Ratatouille – cos Pixar trumps everything. Isn’t that how it goes?).
Then again, since why is winning the crown that important? I’d rather have made a quality film as opposed to making the most money of the year.
Out of curiosity DM, how long is the movie?
(and it pains me to say it, cos I love Bruce Willis and the Die Hard franchise, but I think Die Hard 4 is going to be a lame duck when it comes to the financial side of things…I only know one person who would rather see it before Transformers. The buzz is Transformers)
*since when, not ‘since why’ should be there in reference to the BO question. Brain fart. It pays to proof read.
It is a VERY FAST 2 15 with credits
I might very well be in the minority (young, middle-class white kid) for my demo, but I don’t have any desire to see Transformers. Perhaps because I’ve really only enjoyed one michael bay movie, The Rock, for purely popcorn enjoyment, and everything else has been depressingly bad (I walked out of Pearl Harbor, fell asleep in Bad Boys II). that I’m just not excited about it.
When is Bourne coming home again?
2:15? At least it’s shorter than SSSSPPPPIIIIIIDDDDDEEEEEERRRRR-MMMMAAAAAAANNNNNN 3 and PIRATES: AT TIME’S END.
If it delivers the goods, then length won’t matter – it won’t be long enough.
Armageddon did right around $200M, and that was with a big star (Willis) and a rising star (Affleck). So I think Transformers will do less than that, but not by much.
“Anyone who can’t excited at seeing two robots wrestle on an elevated overpass…”
Snicker (sorry). So is this what the movie boils down to? At least ID4 had a group of reasonably sympathetic humans trying to save the world, but here you have a robot slugfest?!?
Err, yeah. Sounds like TMNT would be a more apt comparison.
Hopscotch- skip the thinking thing and concentrate on things you are good at
Like punctuation Don?
I won’t need excuses if Transformers does $300 million plus. If it earns that, I imagine I will be impressed with the movie… if I am ever allowed to see it. And all I will have underestimated is the amount of interest by adults… because kids and geeks are not taking you to $300 million on their own.
The only films I have underestimated in recent summers were romantic comedies. The box office significance of nostalgia is minimal at these high numbers and happily accounted for in the $200 million and change estimate.
If you think you have the next Pirates, God bless you.
DIE HARD net reports state it has supposedly tested very well but haven’t seen any reviews on AICN or otherwise.
AICN is gonna be gunshy on Fox product prior to release. Remember Memflix and his pre-release pan of “Fantastic 4/Silver Surfer” — it all but got him fired from Malco Theatres.
Aye, Chucky, but Harry “I Love Pwesents” Knowles creamed over the FF2 flick, gushing with praise and admiration (but then again he loved GODZILLA, SPIDERMAN 3, SUPERMAN RETURNS…cried at ARMAGEDDON).
Thing that I find perplexing about AICN is Harry’s need to always indirectly apologize or undermine Moriarty’s candid reviews/reports with one of his ‘You know something, I loved this film!’ reviews.
Harry probably knows Drew is smarter than him and has better taste.
I don’t really understand the nostalgia factor for the Transformers television show. It was passably good at the time, but not much to look back on. And around the same time, the syndicated Robotech series pretty much grease-spotted everything from that show to G.I. Joe. But damned if people aren’t psyched anyway.
I never went back to AICN after the “Tears of ARMAGEDDON” fiasco. I saw that flick thinking it might at least be halfway decent and instead it was so unintentionally funny I truly could not believe it.
Don- How did Fincher’s ass smell this morning?
Look boys and girls, the monkey who I pointed out had difficulty thinking now has resorted to random profanity and nonsensical insults.
AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW cute monkey
Normally I’m totally rooting for Don Murphy and his vicious antics, but his last post doesn’t make any sense.
I was pointing out that Hopscotch was a Monkey. The fact that you cannot follow it is probably better for your brain. It is not worth it.
http://www.mankus.com/images/Hopscotch.jpg
David, I don’t think it has anything to do with nostalgia, and has everything to do with giant robots destroying shit. If Bay’s film delivers on that simple premise (word is it does) then people will flock to it, especially cause everything so far (outside of Knocked Up, and maybe Ocean’s 13) has been incredibly disappointing.
Ok, besides the dueling robots, who do we have in Transformers.
Shia LaBoeuf? His character was the weakest part of I, Robot. 145 million.
He had more of a starring role in Constantine. 75 million.
And Josh Duhamel? Tad Hamilton? I keep getting him mixed up with Timothy Olyphant in Live Free or Die Hard.
Although 135 minutes is a minute shorter than The Rock and The Island, two of Bay’s better works.
Don, we met in your Sony office in 2002; I brought Tsui Hark by while he was in town doing publicity for TIME & TIDE, which I was releasing.
If I do go to TRANSFORMERS, happy is ALL you’ll get, as I have a season pass and thus get in for free. 🙂
Shia La B is also why Disturbia did well, so why bring up I, Robot when Disturbia is fresh in young women’s minds? It might be the Hacker-Pschorr’s I’m driniking but I think you’re underestimating the multiple attractions of the casting alone in Transformers.
For young people there’s Shia, Josh, Racheal young blondie newcomer, Anthony Anderson who is a liked person from his movies and TV appearances, & Tyrese G who is good-looking and was in the unexpectedly well-liked Four brothers…and 2 fast 2 furious.
for old folks there’s John Turturro and Jon Voigt.
My brothers ranging from 26-40 still have Transformers stuff.
I don’t like Michael Bay movies… I don’t like the look of his shoes or trouser hemlines BUT…I will see Transformers and for BO competition it will only have RAT to deal with, then Potter but after the disappointing summer, I think there will be enough enthusiasm to float all three movies to a good BO but I bet Potter does the same as the other Three-quels–not so good.
Diehard did Die hard already and what wasn;t dead already Smith in the trailer kills it by the mixed message–PG-13 with Smith in the trailer…that says DIEHARD PARODY to me. I can;t see how it will even make its money and P&A back.
David the other people got to see it
And they think your projections are crap
http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/exclusive_early_4.html
You’re kidding, right, Don?
Steve Mason is surely a nice guy, but he knows shit-all about box office. The post before his wet kiss to The T, he is throwing around tracking like he knows what it means.
Again… it will require a performance outside of any logic for Transformers to be a $300 million movie. But God (and Gerry Rich) bless your efforts.
Spoke to someone at a major today… hated the film.
But again… not arguing against success… just bloated expectations.
“2:15? At least it’s shorter than SSSSPPPPIIIIIIDDDDDEEEEEERRRRR-MMMMAAAAAAANNNNNN 3 and PIRATES: AT TIME’S END.”
It ends?
A Major what? Psychiatric Hospital? Because NO ONE has hated the film.
Don,
Man, I admire your zeal for your baby, here, but you know, guys like “Fantasy Mogul” were predicting blockbuster grosses for films like Grindhouse, also.
No doubt, the film is going to do some business and I dig your posts about brushing off Die Hard “in a walker” but you really seem to be ignoring Pottermania, coming the next week. Do you think the Potter fans are just going to wither away, all of a sudden? I know you have a full week before it comes, but that better be one hell of a week. Can you make any viable case that Potter will NOT make $120 million in it’s first five days, the next week? Honestly?
And we can all be coy about the “rat,” but this is Pixar, man – just how many times are we going to play that game of underestimating Pixar?
This is NOT saying that any one is going to HATE your film, but are you REALLY going to be disappointed with $150 million to $200 million?
Look, if Transformers does that much, then plan on an early May release date in 2009 and then maybe we can talk about $300 million. Baby steps, man. 🙂
Other than Don and AICN, who says it delivers?
More important: if it doesn’t deliver within the first 30 minutes, do we get the movie for free?
I saw a clip last night on Conan O’Brien involving Tyrese Gibson trying to call for help and for some reason talking to an Indian telemarketer. It made me curse at my TV. Michael Bay movies would be so much better if someone could convince him that his stabs at comedy are painful and occasionally offensive and ruin would might otherwise be fun movies.
Insert Don calling me a douchebag here.
Jeff
You are not a douchebag for this comment. That scene taken out of context could not be funny. IN context it got many, many laughs.
I’m stunned (stunned!) by your generosity in not calling me a douchebag.
So that raises two questions: why show the clip on Conan O’Brien if it lacked the context to make it funny; and how is it possible for any context to make that clip funny since it looked like a dismal attempt at pandering that also undermined the very dramatic action that seemed to be going on?
Of course, I’ll find out myself on July 3rd or so.
Jeff
Don’t be stunned, just be nice and receive niceness in return.
I have no idea who pulled that clip. Probably someone who thought it would be funny out of context.
In context it plays as YOU GOT TO BE SHITTING ME and it brings a laugh of familiarity, all of us having been there before.
If there are any earlier screenings other than the overbooked premiere I will let you know.
Don, I think very few of us have been placed on hold while menaced by giant scorpion robots. If it plays out the way I think it does, it’s completely in keeping with Bay’s sense of ‘humor’ which, as I said, is the single biggest factor that has ruined his films for me in the past. I think I liked The Island because it was mostly blissfully free of comedy.
including Scarlett’s performance?
Taking a slam at Indian telemarketers is a GOOD THING, since phone bank jobs represented the first wave of white-collar jobs that American companies gleefully outsourced. In the decade since they’ve worked their way up the ladder to X-ray Tech jobs, and who knows where it will end.
However: “For young people there’s Shia, Josh, Racheal…” (whoever they are) “…for old folks there’s John Turturro and Jon Voigt.”
Uh, yeah. How about those of us in between? I guess we get to watch robots blow shit up–which I hope includes NYC. I am still waiting for a restored version of THE TIME MACHINE with the scenes of NYC getting pulverized put back in. Sigh–wussy studio execs, getting their panties in a bunch just because of 9/11…losers.
Don’t blame the Indians, blame the corporate heads that made the decision to move the jobs. Then blame the stockholders for demanding greater profitability. Then also blame the consumers for demanding lower prices at the expense of shoddier-quality services.
But being happy that Indians are being mocked in a Hollywood movie doesn’t help anyone except the American consumer’s sense of panic.
(…though I’m sure if Eli Roth dangled an Indian telemarketer upside down and disemboweled him for our own voyeuristic pleasure, that would be okay…)
How droll.
Actually, I would rather see Mr. Roth do this to the American CEOs who are so willing to send jobs overseas. This reminds me of George Carlin’s suggestion that the drug trade would end overnight if we executed the bankers who launder drug money during the Superbowl halftime show.
“including Scarlett’s performance?”
Does Michael know you’re mocking his films?
Aren’t the clips they select from the Press Kit? The thing that includes some scenes, a trailer, maybe some stock interviews for various places to use? Which is why I would assume that the Indian call centre bit is from the press kit and that it will be used routinely. It does sound like a silly scene to use considering nobody is going to the movie to see jokes about Indian call centres. But, whatever.
Kamikaze
I was mocking Scarlett not Michael. Now kindly go fuck yourself.
I was invited to a Transformers screening next Thursday evening. Unfortunately, I’m teaching a film class at UH on Thursday nights this summer, so instead of seeing giant robots duking it out on freeways, I’ll be seeing Lloyd Nolan and Anthony Quinn shooting Japanese soliders in Guadalcanal Diary. Mind you, I’m not complaining, just marveling at the great variety of experiences offered by movies. Sort of like last Thursday, when I rushed from a class where I showed All Quiet on the Western Front to catch a midnight screening of DOA: Dead or Alive. Hey, like Frankie Truffaut said: Vive le cinema.
“It does sound like a silly scene to use considering nobody is going to the movie to see jokes about Indian call centres.”
Nobody went to E.T. expecting to hear a kid called “penis breath”, but it was a great bit nonetheless.
Anyone who had a technical issue with any product over the last 5+ years has had to chat with a resident of India. Everyone is fully cognizant of this problem, and thus the joke will most likely work for a large segment of the audience.
I’d rather wait until after the movie has been released but: the reason ‘Penis breath’ works in E.T. is because it’s a movie about suburban kids and so it accurately reflects the way they talk. I don’t understand why a movie about giant killer robots needs to have a digression into annoying Indian phone operator-land, except that Bay thinks it’s funny. The man can direct an action scene but he’s awful at comedy.
I respectfully disagree. I laugh myself sick at all of Bay’s films.
But are you laughing with it or at it?
Hey! Scooping That Other Trade Paper, Variety.com has posted a review of Transformers — not by me, so it’s OK to brag — and Don likely will be pleased.
Bring earplugs for your children, if you love them, because the soul swatting, mind devouring movie, “…is cranked up to mega-decibels….”
Don is a curmudgeon and never pleased… but it feels good to have three terrific films in the can yes it does.
David- WotW falls FIRST.
Don, a curmudgeon is a lovably cranky old man. You are neither lovable, cranky nor old. Just a man.
Dude I’m lovable…whip it out
Wha? I’ve heard of producers doing anything to satisfy their audience, but this is ridiculous.
Gee, is this how David got that “blow job in the side office” he was talking aboput on the other thread?