Sunday Estimates by Klady
It’s interesting… at least to me.
The most $40 million+ openings in history has been nine. It’s happened twice, in 2001 and 2003. What happened to 2002? The first ever $100 million opening weekend, for Spider-Man. And every year since? At least one $100 million opening.
Coincidence? I don’t think so.
The problem is, as the system has been designed over time, it is almost impossible to overcome front-loading in the summer season. Even The Tre Trio looks now like they will end up, in the domestic box office, grossing in the order of their release; Spidey, Shrek, Pirates… but all three within $35 million of the same number… all well below their low-end hopes.
I expect Transformers to crack $40m next weekend, even for the three-day, even with three days in release before the weekend… but just barely. Harry Potter will at least double that number the weekend after. That will make six $40m+ openings this summer. Chuck & Larry, Bourne & Rush Hour should make it nine. And tying the record with nine such openings, with three $100m+ openings in the same summer, is quite an achievement. (Ratatoullie could well make it ten… breaking the record.)
But this is the story of how far the elastic can be stretched… and how far it cannot be stretched.
A new record doesn’t make it any more fun for Warners on Ocean’s 13 or Universal with Evan Almighty or Die Hard (which will cover the mess with the excuses a Wed opening offers) or even any of my Assumed Nine (plus one), a number of which could fall short. It also makes it harder for a hopeful like Hairspray, for which the odds of a shockingly big opening decrease with each other big opening that lands.
There have been nine $100 million domestic openings now. Only two were outside of May. One was Pirates last July. The other was Harry Potter IV, in November.
Do the math.
I know it’s not very apt comparison, being a different genre and a different boxoffice world since then, but the last time I remember a 200 million dollar movie opening with 30 million and turning a profit was in 1997, the movie being Titanic.
Suffice to say, that will not happen this time around. It looks like Evan Almighty is poised to be this year’s Poseidon and I’m not even sure it will limp to 100 mil, given fiece competition next weekend from Ratatouille.
On the other hand, I’m glad to see an old favorite of mine, John Cusack, doing well.
The summer doldrums continue.
Hostel 2’s down to $800 a screen 🙂
Is it possible that the HOSTEL fans are simply waiting for the DVD, since it will likely be an “unrated” version containing even more gore?
Is it possible that the people who bought into the HOSTEL hype initially, after they saw it or rented it, found that it sickened them and didn’t want to see the sequel?
Hmmm… 72,300 divided by 15 shows divided by 10 bucks a ticket, that’s about 482 seats a show including matin
When is Pirates going to hit 300m? Two weeks maybe?
Poland, I just watched your lunchg with Michaerl Giacchino. Good interview. He’s a hell of a guy who’s written some of my favorite music recently. Ratatouille is my favorite soundtrack of the year. Thanks for asking him about Lost even though you don’t watch it.
I’m pretty sure Ratatouille will go over $40 million and I can see Live Free or Die Hard coming close though it will be hindered by the early week opening, so yeah, I think there’s a good chance that this summer will beat the record of $40 million openings, though I do think we have some more bombs on the way and I think Rush Hour might end up being one of them.
Away from Her and Day Watch both have lower per-theater averages than Hostel 2. I expect gloating over both failures imminently…right?
In the case of Day Watch, sure, I’ll use it as an excuse to open that Brandy tonight.
Tofu: Did you already deplete your Courvoisier stock while toasting the Hostel 2 tanking?
This goes to show that Steve Carrell is no Jim Carrey.
Now hang on – Jim Carrey’s last two movies opened in the teens. Carrey has only opened three movies – Ace Ventura 2, Grinch, and Bruce Almighty – to more than the opening of Evan Almighty. In any other context, this would be a pretty solid win for Carell – just not with a movie that was so bloatedly expensive.
(I wasn’t counting Batman Forever as a ‘Carrey movie’.)
jeffmcm, you’re not taking into consideration inflation because if you paid today’s prices for Carrey’s pre-2000 movies, most of them would be well over what Evan Almighty made. Liar, Liar definitely. (Holy crap! I never realized that the Ace Ventura sequel opened that high… and Carrey still won’t do sequels huh? Dumb.)
on the subject of Jim Carrey
The Number 23 could easily rank in the top 10 worst films of this decade.
just awful.
im glad Evan underpeformed. Lazy filmmaking.
I still think Transformers is being underestimated. 40 million seems low. I think it will do as much as FF 2
“This goes to show that Steve Carrell is no Jim Carrey.”
You’re right – Carrell’s been making me laugh for the last couple of years.
Knocked Up ahead of Dave’s beloved 40 year Old Virgin by Monday evening.
Anghus… T-Formers can’t be compared to FF24… It’s a Tuesday night opening with a Wed holiday, followed by its first weekend. As I’ve written in the past, it could do $35m- $40 million on Tues-Thurs and then another $50 over the weekend, which would put it in line with Men In Black or Superman Returns and a bit behind War of the Worlds, which had the advantage of July 4 being a Monday, causing a four day weekend. It’s well behind Spider-Man 2, which had a Sunday 7/4 three of the top thirty-three days of all time over that six-day. No shame in that.
And Carrell is not where Jim Carrey used to be. He is much more in line with earlier (not early) Ben Stiller, with Zoolander and Starsky & Hutch.
Carrey stopped being CARREY with Me, Myself & Irene, though as Bruce Almighty showed, with the right gimmick and campaign, he could be every bit as powerful as ever. Since then, Dick & Jane is the only movie he’s done in his wheelhouse… and the film probably would have done better with Carrell, who would have not been relied on for creating the trailer gags on set, on the run.
Don’t try to frighten us with your Sorcerers’s ways Lord Poland. Your sad devotion to your ANCIENT RELIGION has not help you conjure up the accurate Academy Predictions or given you clairvoyance enough to be even close to correct on Transformers Box Office numbers.
Records will fall. Filmmaking will be realigned. And you will owe me a fucking lot of French fries.
I haven’t been here in awhile, is the Spam Dooley charade finally over?
If Carrey had to turn his back on being CARREY in order to do something like Eternal Sunshine, I can live with that. Actually, he stopped being CARREY with the great, extremely misunderstood Man in the Moon. I believe he did Bruce Almighty just to prove to the haters he could still do it. Do you really want him to have done The Mask 2?
And, The Number 23 wasn’t bad. It was good effort on his part. His two performances were quite good. The story just needed one more re-write to tighten up the tension.
BTW: I’m not fond of the idea of a Rush HOur 3, but I think it’ll surprise people. The trailer keeps getting laughs whenever I see it with a crowd. Never underestimate the taste of the people. Do that, and you’ll never lose money.
So now Dave Poland is an evil sorcerer secretly trying to tear down the Transformers from his hidden labratory?
Don, you should make that into a movie. It’d gross $1billion on opening weekend and $500trillion by the end of its run!!!!!!
$72,300 for Sicko. Niiice.
This new Transformers tv spot is sweet, but I’m kind of amused that they’re selling both “This 4th of July” and “Opens July 3rd”.
http://www.comingsoon.net/trailers/transformers/exclusivetvspot.mov
martin go back into hiding you won’t be missed.
Kamel it’s a quote. from a famous film. You know, a movie reference.
Don is starting to remind me of Boris Karloff in The Raven, dissing the magic of rival wizard Vincent Price/David Poland. Hmmmm. Does that mean Kamel is Peter Lorre? And if so, can I be Jack Nicholson?
David, you’re really lowballing Transformers. There is really buzz for it right now, not just among hardcore fanboys of the toys/cartoon, and the signs are huge everywhere (the first Reel Source tracking, although very imprecise, puts it at $135m for the first 6 days). It should get over $30m minimum on Tuesday alone. The low side is $60m for the first three days and $60m for the weekend, while I’m more thinking of a 70/70 split.
$40 million? Are you kidding? People may consider this anecdotal, but TRANSFORMERS is the only movie people are talking about right now, at least at my work (not in the entertainment industry). Hell, my co-supervisor, who goes to movies like twice a year, is going on July 4th (already bought her tickets).
TRANSFORMERS is gonna break $100 million, easily.
Transformers is going to open in the pirates/shrek/3 stratosphere (spread over a different # of days) but the question is how good the legs will be. My guess would be $140 6-day and $280-300ish total. Which are great #’s, but also indicative of fairly steep dropoffs. It will also make a shitload on merchandise. Does this mean Transformers is now a franchise?
Yes it is now a franchise. Thanks for asking.
As far as numbers go I need it to be number one for the summer/year. Not because of my backend but because that way Jeff McDouchey will gargle with lye as promised and Poland will buy me a crapload of french fries.
Don, I’ll do the lye thing _and_ buy you a bunch of fries if the movie stays at #2 or lower for the year…if you give me a chunk of your backend cash. Say, 1/50th?
Which of course means that, even as we speak, Uwe Boll is preparing Rock-‘Em, Sock-‘Em Robots: The Motion Picture. And The Asylum — yes, the same folks who gave us Snakes on a Train — are rushing Mr. Machine: The Movie to DVD release.
It is really easy for me to side with Dave on this one, as I have been for months – history is on his side. The reality is that July 4th weekend has NOT been a strong launching pad for opening big movies. Even when films DO open, you could make a case that not since 2001 (basically because no high profile film opened on the weekend, that year) has a blockbuster actually opened to expectations. Seriously, look back:
Last year: Superman Returns
2005: War of the Worlds
2004: Spiderman 2 (yes, the six day was huge, but the actual weekend was almost 20% what the first one opened to)
2003: Terminator 3
2002: Men in Black 2
2001: Cats and Dogs
That’s really it. It is not like Memorial Day Weekend. It’s nice to reduce your drop if you open the weekend before, but that’s about it.
That said, Transformers seems to buidling buzz. Dave might be underestimating it a bit, so MAYBE $50 million – really King Kong/Superman territory, here. I truly think that is the ceiling.
I’m predicting about $50/50 and then a huge dropoff, the next weekend. It should top out at about $180, but Dreamworks will do their damndest to drag it to $200 mill. Worldwide, it will probably break $550 million. Is that franchise enough for you, Don?
My gut is telling me that history will repeat itself and Ratatouillie will upstage this film, just as the original Shrek upstaged Pearl Harbor, back in 2001. The fact that they are now pumping up Spielberg’s name in the marketing COULD help, but didn’t they do that for The Island, too?
JeffMcD I’ve got the lye and fries thing covered by previous arrangements, thanks tho. Just saw a MIGHTY HEART and want my two hours back.
Joe Rockem Sockem….hmmmmmm
I think you guys are still lowballing it. 6000 prints at $72,000 a screen gets you $432 million in the first 3 days, $864 mil in 6 days.
If you get less than $700 mil I will be the first to declare it’s a flop!
To the always INCORRECT Geoff
No sir, Steven did not produce or execprod the Island. Nopers. Sorry. BZZZT. Wrong again.
And again- I am going for BIGGEST FILM OF THE SUMMER. And I know what we have here and have known since I first got the idea.
Hey, Don, if you want to see a treatment…
On a totally unrelated topic: The best “coming attractions trailers” I have seen all year are the CBS ads (aired during the Tonys and the AFI Top 100) for Viva Laughlin. Damn, I want to see that show NOW. (Of course, the last new TV series I got pumped for was Raines, so…)
Actually have one already Joe, fun for the whole family.
Will you be at San Diego ComicCon this year?
You gotta admire his gumption….:)
Don, I don’t work in this business, never have, don’t even live in California.
But I am telling you, EVERY SUMMER, everybody and his mother gets hyped up about the big film opening up on July 4th weekend, how big it’s going to be, how it’s going to break all these records, yada, yada, yada…..
And it never happens. What makes you think you’re so special, in this regard? Because you have a brand name that no one over 35 cares about? Because you have Bay? Because you have Shia?
If you had Will Smith with Spielberg directing, I would give that you that. But you don’t.
to the now obviously knuckleheaded Geoff
I am special because I am not you. That is apparent.
I know what the film is and what it does- to parents AND their kids. I have seen the fans at my message board for four years.
You can stay with Lord Poland or you can accept your predicament. The Legions have spoken.
Damn! I knew I should have registered my scenario at WGA! Well, I won’t make that same mistake with my script for Easy Bake Oven: The Adventure Begins.
ComicCon? What, you need to hire a flunkie to help you unwrap the packages of robot toys?
Joe a simple yes or no will suffice.
Don’t get me wrong: If the money’s right, I don’t mind being a flunkie.
But right now: No, it’s not on my agenda.
The thing is, it’s not really Independence Day Weekend’s fault the movies tat got placed there tend to be aging franchises or too dark for its own good. Superman Returns and War of the Worlds wouldn’t be 300 million earners if you opened them up the first week of May and offered absolutely nothing until Memorial Day.
Sky is right. I don’t think Transformers is going to do much with anyone over 35. However, it’s going to tap into the 12-25 male market more than any film has in awhile. I hate to compare it to Star Wars, but it is similar in a lot of respects. So $280-300 is a possibility, if in its core demo it gets good word of mouth and the great repeat business. And I don’t think it’s minor thing that it’s the first in the franchise, which makes it a lot cooler than the sequels that have littered this summer’s release schedule. That novelty will get butts in the seats.
Is it opening on Tuesday morning or Tuesday night?
Either way, it seems like its ceiling is about $275-300 because in order to do more than that it needs to have a broader demographic reach than it likely does. I hate to get all statisticky, but the movies that have grossed over $300m in history have tended to be more-or-less what they call ‘films for the whole family’ and I don’t see women or girls really getting as excited about Transformers as about Pirates of the Caribbean or Spider-Man. Maybe if there was a female lead who was more than a Maxim cover girl, but that’s not the case (the mismatched romantic pairing in Knocked Up looks like nothing compared to whatshername and Shia).
Jeff,
what romantic pairing? You mean between the kid with the funny name and his hot babysitter?
I mean, good for him, but can’t she go to jail for that?
Joe, Viva Laughlin is so gay, it poops glitter. That can only mean one thing: I’m watching it live and my mama is recording it back home just in case there’s a power outage in New Yawk!
And The Asylum — yes, the same folks who gave us Snakes on a Train — are rushing Mr. Machine: The Movie to DVD release.
Give The Asylum some credit . . . they are *way* ahead of you. From what I hear they’ve already got TRANSMORPHERS in the can. Looks more like Terminator: The Prequel but with the right marketing they’ll make hundreds of thousands.
Oh look, waterbucket is making sure we know he’s still gay. Good to know. 😛
Don, you really do sound like a fourth grader. “I am better than you BECAUSE I SAY SO!!!” (i still reckon Transformers will do well though. I, personally, can’t wait.)
Also, can I alert everyone to the fact that DOA: Dead or Alive, in it’s second week, feel a hilarious 92%. 92%. Granted, it lost around 450 of it’s already limited screens, but damn. Second weekend and 92%. That’s funny.
I have no idea how the intricacies of screen allotment works but if the Weinstein’s pulled DOA in order to make more screens available for 1408 then it was a very smart decision. In hindsight they probably should have pulled *all* the prints of DOA for 1408.
I have been fighting it for years but I have to give in and admit Transformers is going to be huge. Everyone non industry that I know is talking about it and lets face it the effects impressive.
I even gave in and bought a ticket for Tuesday night.
Don what’s up with Comic Con? I was going just because they’re going to anounce the Star Trek cast and that’s a potential train wreck I can’t miss.
I was going to invite Joe to see the surprise film of the year, SHOOT ‘EM UP, but he spurned me.
It wouldn’t be a surprise, then, would it?
Don what is Shoot ‘Em Up rated? How did you get involved with the project? I remember watching part of the Keri Russell movie Davis directed some years back and I can’t believe it’s the same guy who directed Shoot ‘Em Up.
Jeff- did someone say it was a surprise? clean that bowl better and shut up.
SEU is rated R for extreme violence and fun. It is the same guy. The future of action cinema.
Don: Please don’t take it personally. I am but a lowly paid ink-stained wretch — and a largely unpaid blogger — and I cannot afford to travel from Houston to San Diego right now. (Truth to tell, I am saving my pennies for Toronto.) I am especially disappointed to hear I will miss the premiere of Shoot ‘Em Up, about which I actually have heard good things. I look forward to seeing it later this year.
“I was going to invite Joe to see the surprise film of the year”
“did someone say it was a surprise?”
Sometimes I wonder why I bother…
Jeff
We all wonder that. Especially mom.
Waterbucket: Wait, you mean “Viva Laughlin” is gay? No kidding. Well, I guess that goes to show you how little I know about gay culture. By the way: Are you going to get back home in time for our fishing trip?
Don, your act is getting tiresome. Don’t you have movies to produce and more important people to annoy?
Jeff
Sanitized for your protection.
That doesn’t even mean anything.
And now I have to go, so later.
How come it took him so long to do an action movie Don, since apparently he is so good at it? Did you get on board after seeing the infamous storyboards that got him the gig?
Wow. “Ya mom” jokes? Really?
Also, Joe – it’s a quasi musical so naturally that makes it gay. :/
Of course, I’m only going on the brief commercials I’ve seen on YouTube and the quite good Viva Blackpool on which it’s based.
Kamel: Yeah, but it also has Hugh Jackman. Doesn’t that kind of butch it up a little bit?
That’s a joke, right Joe?
(I came back)
Wait, I forgot: Hugh Jackman was in that Oklahoma! revival. And The Boy from Oz. Never mind.
Transformers should be huge, no doubt.
On behalf of the millions of heterosexual males who love musicals: I’m gonna rip off your fuckin’ heads and shit down your necks…..but first, I’m gonna DANCE!!
Hey, you want to talk about a macho musical star? I interviewed Jerry Orbach backstage when he was doing 42nd Street on Broadway. Now there was a guy who could give lessons in ass-kicking.
My sister, who lives outside of Houston and was “disappointed” by “Hostel Part 2,” said that the trailer to “Shoot ‘Em Up” looks like the best thing that will come out this year and e-mailed me to ask if I’d heard of it. She is in no way in “the business,” has an 8 year-old son with “Fast and the Furious” posters on his wall and an XBox, and has simply become my barometer every so often for trailers as she still sees a couple of movies a month at the multiplex. I had to agree that the trailer does look insane.
I don’t get the Shoot Em Up trailer, because I leave it caring about the bad guy (Giamatti). The good guy is a total stiff. It does look amusing, but I’m not sure the trailer is working the way it should. Also the storyboards made this film look a lot more explosive than the trailer implies. Basically the trailer is not over the top enough for the title.
stay tuned Marty…that pesky MPAA limited us but coming online pretty damn soon is… The DIRECTOR’S CUT TRailer!
Jeffmcm: “Transformers” is a Tuesday release (7/3) in the US and a Wednesday release (7/4) in Canada. So is “License to Wed”.
“Sicko” goes national Friday (6/29) in 300-400 theaters per Variety. Product flow is why the latest Michael Moore will go out limited.
sounds good Don. Not to be condescending since I’m no marketing expert, but maybe try some good action music in there too, it all feels very blah, and get some of the good lines from Clive in there.
The only thing that really sells “Shoot em Up” to me is that last crazy looking airplane scene. I don’t know what the content of the movie is, but based on the title it sounds like it’s in the vein of “Epic Movie”, “Scary Movie”, etc. Except it is “Action Movie”. But this trailer looks like Sideways the action movie.
Thanks Chucky but my question was, is it screening all day Tuesday or just in evening shows starting around 8pm?
Actually, the final figures released today (Monday) contain this amusing factoid: Hostel 2 — in first-run release on 1,048 screens — has a lower per-screen average than Blades of Glory — presumably at the dollar houses, at 301 locations. Yikes. What a disaster.
Joe, leaving aside the fact that the movie will be profitable and therefore only a ‘disaster’ based on false expectations, it really seems to be that if you’re going to gloat over it as much as you have lately, you really ought to have seen the film.
Who knows, you might even like it – not all, but parts of it.
Jeffmcm (again): “Transformers” has an official release date of Tuesday, July 3. The schedule on Box Office Mojo has made that clear for several weeks.
As with “Pirates 3” and “Spider-Man 3”, many big-city and suburban theaters will start playing “Transformers” the night before the release date.
Chucky: Speaking of License to Wed — am I watching the wrong TV networks, and reading the wrong publications, or is this one being tossed out there without a whole hell of a lot of advance advertising?
You’re watching the wrong networks, because I’ve seen a helluva lotta spots, and I don’t watch much network TV in summer, ’cause it’s mostly reruns and reality crap. Also a lotta billboards and bus panels, but I assume that’s an L.A. thing.
Hmmmm. Then I guess I have to quit watching all that soft-core porn on Cinemax.
Those robot babies in the LICENSE TO WED ads will be the death of that movie, I tell you. Those are SERIOUSLY creepier and more off-putting than anything in any ad for Saw, Hostel, Captivity, you name it. They’re like White Chicks-scary.
Those robot babies are what made me want to see the movie. I never saw White Chicks, though, because the makeup was so weird.
White Chicks was awesome. It’s one of those movies that I still watch whenever I see it on Cable TV. It’s stupid funny but it’s still funny.