July 15, 2007
Weekend Finals
Domestic Market Share

Hari Potter, Harry Potter

Potter, Potter, Hari, Harry

To no great surprise Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix, its fifth screen installment, went to the head of the class with an estimated $76.8 million. The only other film to venture out nationally was the oft-delayed Captivity that registered a weak fettering of $1.4 million.

The session also included excellent debuts for limited releases including the historical drama Talk to Me andInterview, based on the controversial Dutch film by Theo Van Gogh.

For no obvious reason, HP5 bowed last Wednesday and entered the weekend with $62.6 million in the bank. However, the spur for the jump start was clearly the international marketplace where many territories debut new films on Wednesday or Thursday. Warner Bros. is projecting the first seven days domestically will exceed $160 million and that would be the fastest pace for any film in the series (though admissions would trail those of chapter #4).

The latest screen edition has also served up a tremendous amount of free publicity and awareness for author J.K. Rowling‘s seventh and final (?) Harry Potter novel that hits book stands imminently.

Despite the significant chunk of change Harry transposed to the mid-week, weekend revenues climbed for the first time in more than a month. Close to $180 million was spent on movie tickets during the current session to register a modest 2% bump from seven days earlier and a more impressive 12% boost from 2006 when the second Pirates of the Caribbean entered its second frame with $62.3 million and freshmen arrivals Little Man and You, Me and Dupree followed with grosses of $21.6 million and $21.5 million.

Transformers experienced close to a 50% decline but with a domestic tally of more than $220 million the picture is well ahead of expectations and the key question to confront is when to date the sequel. In a season that’s largely been characterized by sequels and retreads not quite living up to inflated expectations, the surprises so far are the much writ about Knocked Up and 1408. The latter, adapted from the Stephen King canon, has taken the industry off guard and not simply because it was released by MGM. Scary movies are supposed to experience 50% declines and disappear from the marketplace after four weeks. Now in its seventh weekend, 1408 had as good a hold as any wide release (-31%) and at its current pace should gross about $80 million.

The true life antics and inspiration of 60s era D.C. radio personality “Petey” Greene proved unexpectedly potent forTalk to Me, generating about $398,000 from 33 venues. Still, there’s little question that the material is a difficult sell and significant care will be required as it expands nationally. One can see the strains already for Rescue Dawn that debuted on July 4 and added 32 theaters in its second weekend. While its per engagement average remained potent, a big question looms as to whether the expansion has been too cautious considering the attention its received.

The sessions other limited newcomers played well in the niches with the French import My Best Friend (Patrice Leconte venturing into Veber territory) racking up roughly $45,000 from three screens and Interview ringing up better then $40,000 in six head to heads.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Finals – July 13-15, 2007

Estimates – July 13-15, 2007

Worldwide Grossers: To July 12, 2007

Domestic Market Share: To July 12, 2007

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