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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady

The box office story of Summer

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41 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady”

  1. EthanG says:

    Looks like Potter will struggle to make it to $150 mil. in five days. Still not bad…the book release will push it passed 300 million overall.
    Two impressive figures: Captivity might not break $2 million for the weekend, and may finish the career of Joffe and end the torture-porn subgenre for awhile excluding Saw. (Elisha Cuthbert needs a new agent but will survive)
    Also, Talk to Me could break 10,000 in 33 theatres which is awesome. It’s weird to me that I live in DC and can barely find this movie…

  2. EDouglas says:

    Well, that’s too bad since I have an over/under $150 million bet with someone on Potter, which I thought I had beat after that Weds opening. I guess I’ll have to cross my fingers for a strong Saturday.

  3. LYT says:

    “…end the torture-porn subgenre for awhile excluding Saw.”
    Meaning…there won’t be a Hostel 3 or a Captivity 2? It’s not like there ever was some huge subgenre, and Eli Roth said before Hostel II came out that he wasn’t going to do a third. Captivity doesn’t lend itself well to a sequel.
    Captivity’s actually a pretty good horror movie, but it won’t win over anyone who hates that kind of thing.
    On a side note, the local Thursday midnight screening of JOSHUA in Orange County was SOLD OUT! Looking at these charts I’m figuring that’s a huge anomaly, but I wonder why? It’s a ludicrous evil-kid flick. I really hope that doesn’t become the next big “subgenre.”

  4. jeffmcm says:

    The Omen was the highest-grossing horror movie of last summer so why not?
    Oh yeah – because The Omen was really bad.

  5. Rob says:

    The hold for License to Wed is shocking.

  6. EthanG says:

    “Meaning…there won’t be a Hostel 3 or a Captivity 2? It’s not like there ever was some huge subgenre, and Eli Roth said before Hostel II came out that he wasn’t going to do a third. Captivity doesn’t lend itself well to a sequel.”
    I think there has been a definite upswing of torture exploitation flicks in the last few years, no doubt. Saw, Hostel, Captivity, the TCM remake and prequal, Turistas, the House of 1000 Corpses duology, the second Hills Have Eyes film and even Hannibal Rising. Those are the ones that come to mind…you just didn’t see these types films before ’04 other than TCM and a few exceptions, and they certainly didn’t reach the level of popularity Saw and Hostel 1 did.
    I think the utter failure of thees movies this year signals that audiences are tired. Look for there to be a long break before Saw V, or look for it to be direct-to-DVD.
    I dont even see any horror flicks that could be classified as torture porn on any studio schedule, other than Saw IV and according to reports possibly the Halloween remake (thank you Rob Zombie) which is also reported to be virtually unwatchable.

  7. Aris P says:

    Rob – is it really shocking? Nothing about the “taste” of American culture shocks me anymore. They like being entertained just for its own sake. “Hey let’s go see that new robin williams movie” is about as deep as the masses can get these days. That guy from the Office cannot act, literally, and robin williams is way beyond self-parody at this point. The automoton-like culture in this country seems to enjoy mindless (in most cases read: awful) “entertainment”. Its all about people getting their fat asses in their fat SUVs to go the gigantic multiplexes and stuff their faces. Like ignorant cattle being led to slaughter.

  8. jeffmcm says:

    John Krasinski is actually very funny on The Office – he might not have a lot of range, but he’s not without his charm.

  9. They’re making CABIN FEVER 2 without Roth so I see no reason for HOSTEL 3. Maybe they’re try and cover up this shittiness by like, hiring a female director this time out.
    I just walked in from JOSHUA and there was 2 other people in the theater besides me. Great flick though…man….that kid. What an asshole. Overall I’d reccommend it, but it’s long and slow. I don’t mind that if there’s like a big climax, but JOSHUA stayed mellow throughout. Except for in my own mind where I was flabbergasted by that derned kid.

  10. ployp says:

    Cabin Fever 2? The first was a painful experience for me. At least I caught it on DVD.
    Still haven’t seen either Hostel. I saw Saw but have no intention of seeing the sequels.
    With Captivity (and Hostel II) doing so poorly, is this the end of the so-called torture porn?

  11. doug r says:

    – is it really shocking? Nothing about the “taste” of American culture shocks me anymore. They like being entertained just for its own sake. “Hey let’s go see that new robin williams movie” is about as deep as the masses can get these days.
    Replace “robin williams movie” with “robots blowing shit up movie” and there you have it.

  12. Clycking says:

    That guy from the Office cannot act, literally
    Did you watch him in Little Miss Sunshine? His eyes told the story more than any of the other characters’ did. (Once again proving that how America’s hammiest “comedians” — Jim Carrey, Adam Sandler, etc. — should stick to non-slapstick, because they’re kinda terrific at it.)

  13. LYT says:

    you just didn’t see these types films before ’04 other than TCM and a few exceptions
    Well, just looking at the ones you brought up, many of which are not actually about torture at all — the first House of 1000 Corpses (supposed to come out in 2001 until Universal backed out), the original 4 Texas Chainsaw movies, the original 2 Hills Have Eyes movies, and every Hannibal movie prior to Hannibal Rising. I didn’t see Turistas, but I’ll bet it’s no Cannibal Ferox.
    How about Marathon Man, while we’re at it? What about Hellraiser and Hellraiser 2 — just a li’l bit of torture in them, no?
    Cabin Fever wasn’t about torture at all. And Cabin Fever 2 is directed by Ti West (The Roost, Trigger Man).

  14. jeffmcm says:

    Steve Carell is not in License to Wed.

  15. jeffmcm says:

    Only four of the twenty highest-grossing horror movies of the last five years could be considered ‘torture’ movies – and they each happen to be very bad, in my opinion: the three Saw movies and Texas Chainsaw Massacre ’03. (Okay, Saw 1 was more mediocre than bad.)

  16. Rob says:

    Yeah, Clycking, we’re talking about John Krasinski, not Steve Carell.
    Although your point about Carell is well-taken.

  17. Is Cabin Fever going to be direct-to-dvd? Can I suggest a title? Cabin Fever 2: Pancakes Revenge. Whatever Pancakes actually was. Man, was that scene the most ridiculous thing in the last 10 years of movies? And I am not hyperboling (is that a word?)
    That and those bizarre musical bits in Spider-Man 3 and that bit in Glitter where two people telepathically write a song from opposite sides of New York City.
    Can someone in America say what the advertising was like for Captivity post-billboard debacle? Was there any?

  18. Nicol D says:

    LYT,
    If I read you properly, you have missed the point. There have been plenty of films containing torture before but the point of the torture porn genre is to have the torture set pieces be the raison d’etre and in many cases to directly link it to sexual gratification. The graphic nature of it also comes into play. Marathon Man contains torture, but it was not made to be only about it.
    Sad how far Joffe has fallen.
    Although, Captivity might still break through and be the sleeper hit of the summer. I mean it is only in a small amount of theatres and it is in a genre that has not had a lot of films in it before. And it has only – just – opened. Perhaps with the right word of mouth and an expansion of theatres…maybe Courtney Solomon can get a debate going with Wolf Blitzer on CNN?

  19. CleanSteve says:

    “Rob – is it really shocking? Nothing about the “taste” of American culture shocks me anymore. They like being entertained just for its own sake. “Hey let’s go see that new robin williams movie” is about as deep as the masses can get these days. That guy from the Office cannot act, literally, and robin williams is way beyond self-parody at this point. The automoton-like culture in this country seems to enjoy mindless (in most cases read: awful) “entertainment”. Its all about people getting their fat asses in their fat SUVs to go the gigantic multiplexes and stuff their faces. Like ignorant cattle being led to slaughter.”
    That’s exactly the sort of pompous, self-absorbed hostility that forces me to smile when something Wild Hogs makes almost $200 million dollars. I bet that chaps your ass, huh?? Get a grip. I have long since given up stressing myself out over “the masses” and their choices. In turn it’s dropped my blood pressure and it has added to the enjoyment of my life. I am pretty sure that any and all of my entertainment choices can be scrutinized, as can yours. One man’s boogers are another man’s filet mignon. Who’s right?? You never really know. All you do know is what gives you pleasure. And if Trailer Park Joe gets a few hours of pleasure in his miserable life by watching fat Travolta ride a motorcycle, who am I to begrudge him that?
    I’m not so much arguing that we excuse garbage, but that you also have to acknowledge the fact that you like some garbage, too. But people like Aris P can’t see that through their unsubstantiated narcissism. Guys like that, and for that matter that English -mangling clod Mr. Beaks, and Drew McWeeny–a guy who is proud of the fact that he co-wrote and unproduced second-sequel to a videogame movie–they all make me wish the internet would just fucking shut-down. And I say that as a longtime geek, a guy who used to be as judgemental, unreasonable and vile as most Talkbackers. Trying to influence the entertainment habits of mainstream USA is as useless as trying to force democracy on the middle-east. At some point you just need to get out and tend to your own backyard. That’s what I did.
    But hey, if you wanna continue to give yourself a stroke over Robin Williams doing what Robin Williams has done for 3 decades, then have at it. That could very well lead me to another rant about how guys like him are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Quality aside, he gets railed on if he does a comfort-zone comedy and not a drama, or get gets railed for trying a drama and not a comedy. But that’ll have to wait as I have to contribute to the breakdown of American society and culture with my new dvd copy of The Waterboy.

  20. EthanG says:

    “Well, just looking at the ones you brought up, many of which are not actually about torture at all — the first House of 1000 Corpses (supposed to come out in 2001 until Universal backed out), the original 4 Texas Chainsaw movies, the original 2 Hills Have Eyes movies, and every Hannibal movie prior to Hannibal Rising. I didn’t see Turistas, but I’ll bet it’s no Cannibal Ferox.”
    The original Hills sequal was a laughable mess…no resemblance whatsoever to the current one in terms of plot. And this Hannibal movie is different from the others; sadism for the sake of sadism. The TCM movies are exceptions, but look laughable next to the latest two in terms of violence. 1000 Corpses looks lame next to it’s sequal….the point is you didn’t have all these movies with torture as the CENTRAL focus in great numbers, playing in mainstream multiplexes until recently. Of the films there actually were, most look tame in comparison, and they were mostly a fringe phenomenon.
    Cabin Fever is not a torture film, and I’d argue tht Marathon Man actually has some value. Hellraiser is just plain dated…

  21. Joe Leydon says:

    I’m just curious: How many people here actually rent/buy direct-to-DVD sequels? I can see parents buying the Disney animated DVDs for their kids, but who’s purchasing the other stuff? I mean, haven’t there already been at least two American Pie spin-offs — and a third forthcoming? And then there’s 8 mm II, Carlito’s Way: The Beginning (or whatever it was called)….

  22. anghus says:

    Joe,
    if you saw the numbers, you’d know why they keep making them. i’ve had two projects go direct to dvd. you’d be amazed if you saw the sales figures for these things.

  23. Nicol D says:

    Clean Steve,
    Excellent post.
    Everyone likes some junk; the nobility is in being able to recognize whether or not you can admit it and enjoy it on its own terms.
    I’d rather talk to someone who knows Wild Hogs is schlock but likes it anyway than someone who watches Babel and simplistically comes away thinking they know all there is to know about geo-politics and interhuman relations.

  24. Joe Leydon says:

    Hey, I’m not saying they’re all bad. I’ve actually enjoyed my fair share of direct-to-video product, and even wrote about the “stars” of this subgenre a few years ago.
    http://www.movingpictureshow.com/dialogues/mpsVideoStars.htm
    But are the sales really still that high? I vaguely remember reading somewhere — here? — that they were in decline.

  25. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Kami, there was zero advertising for “Captivity” in New York. Not to mention that the biggest US chain (Regal) and a big regional chain (National Amusements) banned the movie.
    “Joshua” selling out in the O.C.? Fox dumped it as a programmer where I live — the Montclair arthouse didn’t pick it up.

  26. jeffmcm says:

    KCamel, in LA they revived a billboard campaign with the same simple images that you can see only – Cuthbert looking like Naomi Watts behind fencing. But I never saw a trailer or a TV commercial. I don’t know why they bothered to stick with a summer release when they would have been smarter to stick it at the end of August or September or so.

  27. jeffmcm says:

    That was supposed to be ‘online’ not ‘only’.

  28. Aris P says:

    Hey CleanSteve — I’m not stressed, my blood pressure’s fine and I dont get strokes over bad movies making hundreds of millions of dollars. I just don’t go and see these movies. And once in a blue moon i’ll bitch on a respected website. Sure i enjoy garbage once in a while (I’ll pop in Friday the 13th dvds every so often), but at least I know and acknowledge that its garbage. A large percentage of mainstream film today, in my opinion and many people i talk to, is crap, it’s just that the average moviegoer doesn’t really care or discern. They’ll see anything and everything. And by the way, we CAN influence the viewing habits of Americans — just make good movies again. Once the industry became all about weekend grosses, quality content went out the window.
    And anyone who does the same shtick for 30 years, should stop.

  29. anghus says:

    joe, still high enough to warrant more being produced.
    i keep pretty busy.

  30. Joe Leydon says:

    Anghus: Then congratulations to you, and more power to you. Seriously. I can’t help suspecting that, years from now, people will be finding diamonds in the rough among made-for-vid movies, just as we today look at B-movies of yesteryear for underappreciated gems.
    BTW: While shopping today, saw that Wesley Snipes is a V-movie star. Hate to put it this way, but what the hell happened to his career?

  31. The one box office issue that really grated with me was Grindhouse. I have no problem with it being a flop normally, but because it was a flop they royalled fucked every single country that wasn’t America purely because you guys (well, not YOU, but you get the idea) decided not to go see it. The Weinsteins actually decided that nobody else deserved to have the Grindhouse event. Hell, we won’t even get Planet Terror! It’ll probably go (ta dah!) direct-to-dvd. Death Proof is apparently out here in November. God, what a jip.

  32. jeffmcm says:

    I apologize on behalf of my fellow countrymen. (I did my part – I paid for it three times.)

  33. Thanks. It’s just really annoying knowing that we not only miss the whole Grindhouse experience, but that we will have to pay double just to see what most Americans didn’t wanna see for the the price of one. I vented a while back though and I don’t like entering that tortorous vortex of evil that is the mind of Harvey Weinstein.

  34. anghus says:

    Joe,
    Snipes has fallen into the same well Van Damme has. They both make one movie a year. The movie has a budget of about 10 million, of which they take half.

  35. Joe Leydon says:

    Anghus: So you can make a profit on a direct-to-DVD flick if you can (a) get a “name actor” (Snipes, Van Damme, Steven Segal, whoever) and (b)keep the budget below $10 million? That could explain a lot.

  36. anghus says:

    Joe,
    it’s ain’t what it used to be in terms of easy DVD money. But a Snipes or a Van Damme is still good for overseas money and American DVD would help fill the holes.
    Van Damme is still a draw name in at least a dozen territories i can think of.

  37. Lota says:

    “Van Damme is still a draw name in at least a dozen territories i can think of.”
    that’s the most disturbing thing I’ve heard all month.

  38. Joe Leydon says:

    Of course, I guess direct-to-DVD is a bit of a misnomer, because don’t some of these movies get at least SOME theatrical play overseas?

  39. I was surprised to find Lonely Hearts with John Travolta, Selma Heyak and Jared Leto went straight-to-dvd.

  40. Joe Leydon says:

    Kamel: Actually, it did play a few theatrical dates here in the US. But not many.

  41. Oh, well it went straight to dvd here. But many do if they don’t go well in the States. That or they just don’t release them at all.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon