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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Sunday Estimates by Klady

First note, A Correction – Len Klady’s Friday Estimates had The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford at 15 screens when today, he is at the 5 that has been reported elsewhere. Our apologies to our readers.
And then…
Nothing a whole lot else to talk about.
The big exclusive openings of Into The Wild and Jesse James are very nice

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30 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. anghus says:

    i have this theory that the September/October block is the most friendly for geek films (of the non blockbuster variety).
    I look at the release schedule for this year and wonder if Grindhouse wouldn’t have been a much better September/October release, or Southland Tales, or any number of films that seem to do a lot better in the pre-holiday dumping ground where weird films can scrape out a little something.
    Some of my favorite movies were put out in this time frame. I think back to films like Pulp Fiction, Seven, the Usual Suspects, and Trainspotting which were all put out during these months, as well as some fabulous low budget stuff that is a little too weird for award consideration and not mainstream enough for the summer season.
    Maybe Stardust should have waited as well. Something that well reviewed might have done a little better in October with word of mouth carrying it into the holiday.
    I enjoy these months more than anything else, because i can’t think of months where you see so much good independent film and off kilter studio films out at one time.

  2. seattlemoviegoer says:

    It’s interesting to see HAIRSPRAY moving up over GHOST RIDER and OCEANS 13. One, a popular comic book /CGI teenboy pic and the other a multi star-filled, ubercool, expensive sequel. It’s close on the tail of the Adam Sandler stinker (far outpacing it worldwide), and soon to overtake the Will Farrell ice skating comedy. Maybe musicals aren’t such a gamble after all. Still, it would have done better as a holiday release around Thanksgiving. It could have taken advantage of the good reviews and awards notice…giving it legs through the winter. Now, Golden Globe and Oscar blessings will only support the DVD campaign.

  3. Rob says:

    I’m pretty sure Trainspotting came out in July, and The Usual Suspects in August.

  4. marychan says:

    According to Neil Gaiman, Paramount paid 50% budget of “Stardust”, which cost $70 million to make.
    http://www.neilgaiman.com/journal/2007/08/some-of-things-ill-miss.html
    I believe this movie will make profit on foreign box office and DVD sales.

  5. David Poland says:

    I believe Neil Gaiman has it wrong. Their obligation may well have been $30 million, but I believe that money was beyond the production budget.

  6. Me says:

    I am so glad Stardust is actually finding something close to an audience. I told everyone, including strangers on the street, how much I loved that movie (most of the strangers didn’t seem to know that Robert De Niro and Michelle Pheiffer had a movie out – so Par’s P&A costs couldn’t have been very much, or they just did a sucky job). Having now read the book (well, listened to Neil’s wonerfully lilting reading of the book), I can say that the movie is in fact, better than the book. I’m tempted to see it a third time, but figure at this point, I’ll just buy the dvd on the day of release and watch it again that way.

  7. bulldog68 says:

    Interesting comment I saw on another site. The top 5 films are all rated R. And including Superbad, that’s 6 of the top 10 films. Just wondering whether this is some kind of record. Anyone…anyone…?

  8. anghus says:

    Rob,
    they did. i know they went into wider expansion in september getting to more screens and getting word of mouth. here’s a stat for trainspotting:
    Highest All Time Rank (on September 14, 1996)
    Same with Usual Suspects. It opened in August, went wide in September, and the word of mouth in limited release built the momentum to the wider expansion which had cinephiles lining up to see what everyone was talking about.

  9. Craptastic says:

    I’m just glad ‘Across The Universe” is tanking. Granted, there are a few brilliantly executed visual sequences that go along with the music… but 75% of the that film is complete crap.
    There’s little to no story… the beatles jokes are disgustingly lame… “Where’d she come from?” “She came in through the bathroom window”. Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhrrrg.
    Anyone else notice how “Sexy” Sadie was? Hmmmmm?
    Also, did anyone else who has seen it think the ‘Vietnamese’ girl– ‘Prudence’– had just been sucking on a Sharpie prior to her “I Wanna Hold Your Hand” sequence? Hate to jump on physical flaws but that was a tad bit distrating to me. Hell, I thought there was possibly a deleated scene we didn’t know about where she’s stuck in art class and had her mouth covered in black ink.

  10. bmcintire says:

    Craptastic – the lip thing was jarring. I kept waiting for it to disappear and become a part of imdb continuity error history.
    However, I’m no defender of the film (it was TERRIBLY disappointing for a Taymor picture) but it is hardly tanking. Word of mouth is (unbelievably) fantastic. This thing will have terrific legs.

  11. EDouglas says:

    The opening for Into the Wild is good but it’s by no means an antecedent for a $100 million movie as you stated in the thread below. That’s just absolutely ludicrous. All you have to do is look here:
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/theateravg.htm
    And you can see that tons of movies had better opening averages and didn’t make it to $100 million… Inconvenient Truth wound up at $24 million with a bigger opening, Punch Drunk Love and I Heart Huckabees ended up under $20 million. Even Brokeback Mountain, which nearly doubled Into the Wild’s average, only ended up with $83 million.
    I don’t even think there’s the potential for $30 million on this one. The movie isn’t universally loved. It’s generally liked or admired for what it is… but many people thought it was way too long (including myself) and the masses are less forgiving of that. “Into the Wild” did well more to the fact of where it opened and the source material (compared to Jesse James) than anything else, and I’d be surprised if it expands into more than a thousand theatres. (Even Eastern Promises’ $36 thousand average in three times as many theatres was more impressive to be honest.)
    Stardust was a great movie… one of my favorites of the summer… and it deserved better treatment than being dumped into August. And they should have done whatever it took to keep Bowie’s “Starman” as the end credits song.

  12. Seattle, there will be audiences for musicals as long as they’re good. But, as you mention, Chuck & Larry is at $7mil in Australia after five weeks, while Hairspray is at $3.5mil after one. But musicals are always big in Australia. Moulin Rouge! is one of the highest grossing films ever here, The Producers, Phantom of the Opera and such all did better here. Only Dreamgirls compared poorly, but that’s because of the culture divide. Unless it’s hip-hop, our audiences just don’t care for african-american stories.
    Transformers opened last week (or is it this week?) on IMAX down here. Is it going IMAX in America? Apparently it’s phenomenal. The transformed robots are lifesize. Apparently.
    Dave, does Into the Wild have any supporting actors that can get hooked into the awards race. No matter how good he is I just can’t see Emile Hirsch getting much in the way of awards and Sean Penn won’t be eligible for “breakthrough” awards so they’re going to need something to hook their awards campaign on, right?

  13. iowabeef says:

    Does anyone know when Across the Universe will go a little wider? It’s playing on 300 or more screens, but it is not playing here in Phoenix. Yet I think I have seen the trailer for it before every movie I have seen in the last six months…is it only playing in NY and LA still?

  14. JeffGP says:

    JESSE JAMES opened on at least 9 screens in Austin, TX. Check the showtimes. The reported 5 screens is 2 in NY, 2 in LA and 1 in Toronto. Warner Bros. is hiding the Austin numbers, because it would hurt the per screen, affecting the arthouse bookings JJ is going to get. They clearly tested Austin as going the non-arthouse route. The succeeded in NY and LA. They should, nonetheless, be FORCED to report all their numbers. LIARS.

  15. The Carpetmuncher says:

    The only supporting actor I can see getting any real awards dap from INTO THE WILD is Hal Holbrook, who was very moving. But his part is super-small, so maybe not. But it was a wonderful part of a wonderful film.
    I have to agree that it’s tough to see Emile Hirsch getting awards consideration unless the film makes $80 mil, but he is terrific, and always has been IMO, doing stellar work ALPHA DOG, LORDS OF DOGTOWN, and IMAGINARY HEROES. He’s a great actor, just not as flashy as someone like Gosling, but has just as much soul. I hope he does get some recognition.

  16. Glamourboy says:

    Into The Wild is going to be big. I think it’s a great film…I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it. I don’t think the reviews are mixed (84% on Rotten Tomatoes). Penn has been going everywhere to promote the film. I keep reading posts from people across the country who can’t wait for the film to come to their city. I think the film has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, along with Hirsch, Penn and Holbrook. The Oscars seem to give Marcia Gay Harden a nomination for zippering her dress…but I think her part is too small here. Still, I think the film is going to do really well.

  17. David Poland says:

    I have no idea what Into The Wild will do. I think you understate the appeal, Ed, but I also think others are overstating it. And the same is true in its Oscar push.
    I think we are still a ways away from knowing how much traction there will be for the movie. And that will determine whether Emile or, for that matter, Holbrook stick. Both could make it… both could miss. Holbrook has more “buzz” but it’s buzz from 10 people, literally… which doesn’t mean it won’t happen. He is, in reality, more of a TV guy than a movie guy, so the notion that he is this year’s “Arkin/ O’Toole” is a major reach.
    And Glamour has a good point… pedigree is not irrelevant. Then again, it locks nothing.

  18. hendhogan says:

    i don’t know about that tv crack, d-po. after all, this is the original deep throat. he may be working in tv more often, but there’s more money for an actor like him in television than there is in film. don’t begrudge a paycheck

  19. David Poland says:

    Yes, he has had a great career as a character actor… but if you look at his career and the things he is most famous for, they are mostly TV and Mark Twain on stage.

  20. hendhogan says:

    well, there you go. when i think hal holbrook, i think “magnum force.”
    but, hey, perception is everything

  21. David Poland says:

    don’t forget Wall Street or Creepshow
    But 11 Emmy noms and 4 wins and not a nod for movies ever.

  22. jeffmcm says:

    First time for everything.

  23. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Transformers” began a limited IMAX run in the States on 9/21. Box office numbers this week reflect the IMAX run.
    “Across the Universe” expands to Phoenix on 9/28.

  24. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, I would love it if you would ever explain why you care so much about the marketing campaigns that you post about so often.

  25. I don’t think he ever will, Jeff.

  26. Cadavra says:

    Alan Alda has a warehouse full of Emmys, but never got an Oscar nom until AVIATOR. It’s an unfair comparison; there are ten Oscar slots available each year for (male) actors, vis-a-vis 50 for Emmys (and that’s excluding variety show appearances).

  27. hendhogan says:

    ditto martin landau

  28. Still, it’s pretty hard to base an awards campaign around a glorified cameo (somebody said he’s only in it briefly) because I just can’t see Sean Penn or Emile Hirsch winning awards. But, then, I could be wrong obviously (I am a lot). The Aviator had Scorsese and Cate and Leo and the Hughes story. Ed Wood was very Hollywood and Landau was playing an iconic figure in film history.
    Is he on the level of Judi Dench or William Hurt who got nods from tiny roles? Has he been snubbed a lot in the past?

  29. brack says:

    I can’t believe anyone liked Stardust that much. It was very okay.

  30. IOIOIOI says:

    IT’S VERY AWESOME! THAT’S WHAT IT IS!

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon