October 28, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

It was Veni, Vidi, Vici for Saw IV as it cut a neat swath estimated at $32.4 million to take the lead in the weekend box office race. The frame also delivered good results for the Steve Carrell romantic comedy Dan in Real Life of $12 million to clinch second position.

Additionally there was strong response for the indie human comedy Bella of $1.2 million in limited release and exclusive engagements of Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and Cannes prize winner 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days generated potent respective per screens of $34,600 and $8,850. Otherwise debuting product that ranged from the social drama The Music Within, Mr. Invisible, Rails & Ties and the non-fiction Jimmy Carter Man from Plains were commercially bland.

While collectively the new titles provided a nice viewing boost it still came up slightly shy of 2006 levels. Industry anxiety about declining grosses has now heightened a mixture of expectation and nervousness about next weekend’s bows of American Gangster and Bee Movie that are viewed as key to a box office turnaround.

The pre-Halloween tradition of slice and dice entertainment was again reinforced by Saw IV‘s arrival. The film got an early start with Thursday midnight shows that generated about $1.5 million and its weekend tally (about 4% down from the prior edition) indicated the franchise is still vibrant.

On the heels of The Heartbreak Kid, pundits were cautious about Dan in Real Time‘s commercial prospects. Most doubted it could crack $10 million but Friday results exceeded those expectations and the film enjoyed an 18% revenue boost on Saturday.

Overall business climbed to roughly $105 million that translated into an 8% boost from last weekend but still lagged behind results from 12 months earlier by 2%. In 2006, Saw III (sans Midnight shows) led with $33.6 million with the fourth weekend of The Departed taking place position with $9.8 million.

Holdover titles rocked and rolled with genre fare including 30 Days of Night experiencing sharp downturns but such adult oriented fare as Gone Baby Gone and Michael Clayton holding up well in the sated marketplace. Nonetheless one has to conclude that the sheer volume of product is making it increasingly difficult to strategize an effective platform release as evidenced by the likes of The Assassination of Jesse James … and The Darjeeling Limited while the jury’s still out on Lars and the Real Girl.

A prize winner at the Toronto festival, Bella had a strong likeability quotient though few obvious commercial hooks. Initial critical praise and word-of-mouth kicked in effectively for a very solid $7,390 engagement average.

Pre-release press also translated effectively for the crime drama Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and the Romanian abortion drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days with the former opening at two Manhattan sites and the latter launching at two Montreal cinemas.

However, the bloom is definitely off the rose for documentaries. Or, one could argue that the industry has effectively killed the layer of the golden egg with too many non-fiction movies (this weekend bothJimmy Carter and How to Cook Your Life) that cannot sustain even a niche crowd at the multiplex. The erosion of audiences for alternative fare has been systematically squandered in the past three years with a glut of American independent releases and as with the mainstream (though more difficult to organize) a policy of less is more may have to be enacted.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – October 26-28, 2007

Domestic Box Office – To October 25, 2007

Domestic Market Share – October 25, 2007

Be Sociable, Share!

• 
•