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By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady – 11/3

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37 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady – 11/3”

  1. Geoff says:

    American Gangstger is probably going to do close to $50 million, this weekend. Great campaign by Universal and the rest of the studio’s should thank them – even I got to see the film, earlier this week on DVD. The piracy debate is officially OVER. Now stop running those obnoxious ads in movie theaters.
    Bee Movie underperformed a bit, but that had to be the most obnoxious ad campaign I had ever seen. This is coming from some who loved Seinfeld, the show. I have to wonder if a lot or parents were just sick of seeing him and decided NOT to take their kids.

  2. movieman says:

    Wow! That’s a disappointing opening day figure for “Bee Movie,” especially considering the blitzkrieg of hype and (overall) decent reviews.
    DW had better hope that it gets the usual ‘toon pick-me-up on Saturday and Sunday because all they basically have is three days.
    “Fred Claus” will gobble up the “family” audience–and several other key demographics as well–next weekend, and “Mr. Magorium” and “Enchanted” immediately follow in its heels.
    I still say that “Bee” should have opened in the same early October slot as DW’s “Shark Tale” three years ago.
    This is likely to go down as another bone-headed ’07 studio scheduling blunder (e.g., opening “Spider-Man 3,” “Shrek 3” and “Pirates 3” in the same month, thereby guaranteeing that none of them truly live up to their b.o. potential).
    Hat’s off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie that we’ve all seen countless times before (and better). They really did turn it into an “event” by emphasizing the film’s delusions of epic grandeur.
    Even with a steep decline in weekend two, it’ll be sitting pretty through Thanksgiving since it’s the only big new “adult” movie in the marketplace. (“Lions for Lambs” is going to be a complete non-starter, trust me.) Unlike DW and “Bee Movie,” Universal was very shrewd in their choice of an opening date.
    I knew there was a tremendous “wanna see” for “AG,” but I still think that boffo Friday figure is going to surprise a lot of people.

  3. doug r says:

    What is the big deal with “Enchanted”. I’ve been seeing that same trailer over and over and it just gets lamer each time. Wouldn’t it have gone straight to DVD just a few years ago?

  4. movieman says:

    “Enchanted” has Mouse House muscle behind it: never underestimate their ability to turn a rock into a cash cow.
    Hell, they were even able to milk $40-million-plus out of straight-to-video-worthy dreck like “Underdog” last summer.
    And don’t get me started on “The Game Plan.”
    Whether it’s good, bad or simply mediocre, “Enchanted”–simply by virtue of the Disney imprimatur–is guaranteed to at least “open” during the Thanksgiving weekend. And it’ll probably do a lot more than just “open.”

  5. brack says:

    Bee Movie’s 52% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes decent? Too much Seinfeld and not enough movie ads. But the movie just looks awful, and the scene Jerry showed on last night’s Conan was ridiculous and not funny.
    I think American Gangster getting leaked did nothing but build up the hype, as anyone who pays attention to the entertainment media knew this happened. Free press.

  6. brack says:

    Enchanted looks a wonderful movie that may deliver what Stardust did not.

  7. movieman says:

    And that $1.1-million Friday estimate for “Martian Child” should be an embarrassment for New Line.
    You can be sure that if it was “Disney’s ‘Martin Child'” it would have opened at a more opportune time of the year and been properly marketed.
    Apparently NL can only handle the p.r. campaign of one release at a time: and right now it’s all-“Golden Compass”-all-the-time.
    I wish I could offer some first-hand pro or con commentary on “Enchanted,” but Disney has strictly forbidden Northeastern Ohio press from seeing the film (despite a plethora of w.o.m. “promo” screenings).
    Not sure when they’re going to grant us “permission:” possibly not until Monday evening the 19th if tradition holds.

  8. movieman says:

    “Bee Movie” got extremely enthusiastic reviews in the New York Times (Scott), EW (Gleiberman), the New York Observer (Reed), and most of the reviews that I’ve seen (excepting that buffoon in USA Today) have been quite positive.
    I only gave “BM” a 2 1/2 star rating, so I’m obviously on the lower end of the grading scale. I thought it was OK, but nothing special.

  9. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Hat’s off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie …
    The sales job is not at all brilliant, it is boneheaded. Look at the banner ads running online.
    From … Academy Award Winner Brian Grazer
    Strike One.
    Academy Award Winner Denzel Washington
    Strike Two.
    Academy Award Winner Russell Crowe
    Strike Three — yerrrrrrr OUT!

  10. movieman says:

    Hmm. I’m not sure I see what’s boneheaded about trumpeting the participation of three Oscar winners in a movie’s ads.
    It just plays along with that whole “event” aura of (self) importance which has made “AG” a “must-see” among adult moviegoers.
    Seems to me that they did their job well. And they definitely picked a great opening date.

  11. chris says:

    Not sure what the pre-emptive “Enchanted” hating is about. It’s not bad, and Amy Adams is spectacular in it. Like, should-get-an-Oscar-nomination-even-though-she-won’t spectacular.

  12. movieman says:

    In what capacity did you see “Enchanted,” Chris?
    As a working critic, or as someone who got a free ticket to a promo screening?
    Disney’s northeastern Ohio flunkies have expressly forbidden press from seeing the film yet.
    I’d be curious to hear if Disney’s “rules” of “Enchantment” are different in other markets.

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    Chucky: Wrong, sports fan. The ad department hit a grand slam with the very sort of name-checking you love to despise. Look at the scoreboard, Chuckster. Then go back to the minors.

  14. movieman says:

    Hey, Joe: I checked out the “Wendell Baker” dvd box at Best Buy yesterday while hunting for Peter Bogdanovich’s Tom Petty doc (which took me forever to find: it was in the music department instead of the movie dept., grrrrrrrrrrrr!), and got a little chuckle when I saw your quote. Very sweet!

  15. Blackcloud says:

    “Look at the scoreboard, Chuckster. Then go back to the minors.”
    Joe, how can he go back if he never left?

  16. Blackcloud says:

    And for God’s sake make sure he doesn’t see the trailer for “Charlie Wilson’s War.” His head will explode.

  17. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Didn’t pretty much everyone around here think SAW 4 was going to open at 20+ ? I remember the discussions after HOSTEL 2 from many saying “all those death of horror naysayers will be eating their stats when SAW 4 opens to huge numbers”… well guess what? we can now make an official statement – torture porn is DOA at the Boxoffice.
    With the American remakes of excellent spanish spookers The Orphanage and [REC] coming next year though, US fans sure won’t be missing the ever dwindling thrills of watching victims be tortured.
    Terrific opening for GANGSTER but it was a no brainer really. Epic storytelling, A list actors doing their period thang, and it ‘looked’ like quality adult entertainment. So yhou’d think LAMBS which has similar pedigree should open big but it won’t cos its all about perception. And LAMBS is heading for a slaughter.

  18. ManWithNoName says:

    43.7 million is considered DOA at the box office?
    That said, SAW is more about franchise recognizability than an affirmation of audience bloodlust.

  19. doug r says:

    See, that’s the problem with the vivisection subgenre-no legs.

  20. SJRubinstein says:

    Doug r. – somewhere, somehow, Jack Benny owes you a cigar.

  21. scooterzz says:

    saw ‘enchanted’ last evening at the el cap and was completely charmed….. not sure amy adams quite qualifies for an oscar nom but at least one song will make the cut….and btw–if this had been released a month ago i’m guessin’ every queen in weho would have been susan sarandon for halloween…jus’ sayin’….

  22. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    For some medical hiccup I had SAW at 23 cume BO. Dr needs a rest. Ignore previous post

  23. PastePotPete says:

    I’m testing a theory. Does anyone here who thinks that the Bee Movie advertising was excessive and annoying NOT watch NBC’s Thursday night block?
    Because the only show I ever saw Bee Movies ads with that called attention to themselves was the Office, the only NBC Thursday show I watch. Maybe I tivoed through the ads in Heroes and Bionic Woman but I didn’t notice anything unusual in those.

  24. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, best to have not posted today. American Gangster’s $40+ opening is exactly what they had in mind. You cannot honestly claim that the campaign was ‘boneheaded’ unless you are judging it on some aesthetic criteria of your own devising (please share it with us sometime).

  25. a_loco says:

    man, i saw AG last night in a sold out theatre in Toronto, but the AC wasn’t working so they were giving people free tickets on the way out. guess that theatre won’t make too much money on that one. Also, if the marketing campaign was “boneheaded”, then how did “Under the Tuscan 2” (A Good Year) fail so poorly this time last year?

  26. Chucky needs to just shut up and realise his silly formula means nothing. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Moving on.
    Great numbers for Gangster although it meant Michael Clayton and Gone Baby Gone got hit down a peg or two.
    Martian Child can join the list of other New Line kids train wrecks – How to Eat Fried Worms, Hoot, etc etc

  27. Chicago48 says:

    “Hat’s off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie”
    In a way you’re right because starting with the French Connection to Donnie Brasco, to New Jack City, AG seemed the same story….the difference is they are based on REAL LIFE CHARACTERS AND EVENTS, and the star power of AG.
    You could call that for a number of movies out there, they’re all repeated stories that the public still wants to see again and again.
    Thank the appearance of the rappers in AG and JayZ’s AG album for getting the kid set out. It has legs for at least another 3-4 weeks. Will it break even? Don’t know, because I read that the movie cost $100M the first time and $100M the second time = $200M, add in the actor’s salaries; pretty expensive movie isn’t it?
    This bunching of movies within a limited time frame is going to kill the movie industry and relegate more and more to straight to DVD status.

  28. brack says:

    “This bunching of movies within a limited time frame is going to kill the movie industry and relegate more and more to straight to DVD status.”
    this isn’t exactly new.

  29. IOIOIOI says:

    The bunching of movies continues to happen, but less movies are coming out this month and next. So there should be room in the theatres. Nevertheless; Seinfeld got a little cumupence this weekend. Yay!

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  32. anghus says:

    people say that Bee Movie’s marketing was excessive, but in an era where commercials get fast forwarded, and audiences are fragmenting into smaller groups, it’s not going to change.
    Back in the day, they used to say you had to market to 100 people to get 1 to be interested. Then it was 1000 to get 1.
    Now they say 10,000.
    But American Gangster’s marketing defies that logic. The marketing felt almost surgical in it’s efficiency, and everyone was geared up for it.
    maybe less is more in marketing.

  33. Chicago48 says:

    I keep thinking about the download factor. On another board, they stated AG was the most downloaded (free) on the internet, which means the studio is missing money. Regardless of the legit box office.
    Why dont’ the studios take their movies to the internet? put a 10 minute clip online for people to watch to see if they want to continue seeing the movie in the theatre — or a pay now button (like the WSJ does) so the viewer can download the movie for $4-5??? Is that so impossible?

  34. The Pope says:

    Anghus,
    Your remarks on marketing ratios make a lot of sense, especially given the manner in which the entertainment dollar continues to divide itself. I think perhaps a key for people to note would be to remember what Karl Rove did with the Republican campaigns. Don’t worry about getting the wider constituents. Just go after your core base and mine the vein ever deeper. I do not live in the US, so I can only remark on the advertising from afar, but it would appear to me that they targeted the core audience through and through and through.
    Of course, it will be interesting to see how AG holds up next weekend, when the advertising will then have to contend with that far more powerful tool, the word of mouth. AG does not begin its European roll out until the 16th. From the reactions to the trailer, I think the film will do very well here.

  35. The Pope says:

    Anghus,
    Your remarks on marketing ratios make a lot of sense, especially given the manner in which the entertainment dollar continues to divide itself. I think perhaps a key for people to note would be to remember what Karl Rove did with the Republican campaigns. Don’t worry about getting the wider constituents. Just go after your core base and mine the vein ever deeper. I do not live in the US, so I can only remark on the advertising from afar, but it would appear to me that they targeted the core audience through and through and through.
    Of course, it will be interesting to see how AG holds up next weekend, when the advertising will then have to contend with that far more powerful tool, the word of mouth. AG does not begin its European roll out until the 16th. From the reactions to the trailer, I think the film will do very well here.
    I just saw on Box-Office Mojo that it hit $46m.
    Wow!

  36. movieman says:

    Is it too soon to begin eulogizing “Bee Movie”?
    I’m getting “Cat in the Hat” vibes, and that ain’t pretty.

  37. Get over it movieman.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon