November 18, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

The venerable Nordic saga Beowulf handily led the frame with a debut estimated at $27.5 million. However, other premieres proved less fulsome including just fair results of $9.9 million for the family friendly Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium and a dull $1.9 million for the long gestating adaptation of Love in the Time of Cholera. Overall business continued to experience audience erosion.

Niche debuts also reflected feast or famine results with the latter exemplified in the $80,000 tally forMargot at the Wedding in two locations. Conversely the omnibus drama Southland Tales and the Iraq war vignette Redacted struggled unsuccessfully to draw in an audience with both falling short of a $2,000 theater average from respectively 63 and 13 playdates.

Expectations were high for Beowulf bolstered by the surprise potency of 300 earlier in the year. Tracking prognostications ranged between $30 million and $35 million but the bygone tale of blood and passion fell slightly short of anticipation. Less surprising was the grossing chasm between the roughly 650 theaters in 3-D and/or Imax and the 2,500 plus conventional engagements. According to the distributor the enhanced versions accounted for roughly 40% of the picture’s box office.

Weekend revenues should clock in at close to $107 million that rolled back 7% from the prior weekend. That was a more extreme 27% plummet from 2006 when Happy Feet and Casino Royale duked it out for respective openings of $41.5 million and $40.8 million. The steady decline since Labor Day coupled with current and anticipated talent strikes has rattled the industry and the current yearly cume of $8.38 billion has whittled down to a 4.8% advance (and flat attendance) from 12 months ago.

Holdover fare generally experienced slightly sharper drops than has been the norm. American Gangster became the first fall release to garner a $100 million domestic gross and Bee Movie will pass that mark next weekend but no other film currently in the marketplace will hit that benchmark.

Fred Claus had one of the better holds of the frame and that contributed to the less than stellar debut of Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium that’s targeted kids and parents for the upcoming Thanksgiving box office burst. Both films will square off against Enchanted that’s expected to reign in the turkey trot.

Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s beloved novel Love in the Time of Cholera has daunted film adaptation for two decades and most critics would argue the eventual screen adaptation squandered the source’s power and emotion. Audiences largely gave it a pass, opting instead for the first platform of No Country for Old Men.

Most of the early fall platforms have peaked early and the few that include Bella and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead that remain on the ascendant cannot see the start of December award accolades too soon. In the coming weeks I’m Not There, Atonement, The Kite Runner, Youth Without Youth and There Will Be Blood will also jump on the kudos bandwagon.

Controversial festival favorite Redacted that’s culled from current Iraq War experiences failed to turn the tide for recent hot button movies. As with last year’s acclaimed United 93, audiences here and abroad are loath to see contemporary tales that hit close to home emotionally and politically.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – November 9-11, 2007

Domestic Releases – To November 15, 2007

Domestic Market Share – November 15, 2007

Be Sociable, Share!

• 
•