December 30, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Limited Releases
Domestic Market Share

National Treasure: Book of Secrets maintained top spot in the last weekend of 2007 with an estimated $35.8 million. The frame experienced double digit expansion with more than a few surprises as several new titles entered the fray in wide and limited release. Alvin, Will Smith and, unexpectedly,Juno contributed mightily to a positive tilt in weekend movie going.

A trio of freshmen titles debuted Christmas Day with varying results. Alien vs. Predator – Requiemoffered a soupcon of counter-programming and ranked sixth overall for the weekend with an OK $9.9 million while the kid friendly The Water Horse generated a disappointing $9.1 million. The targeted-wide release of the uplifting drama The Great Debaters stepped out with an encouraging $6 million.

The situation was equally torrid among limited openers hoping to qualify for Oscars and such and strategically roll out in 2008. The star driven The Bucket List rang up close to a $20,000 theater average at 16 venues while the highly touted There Will Be Blood grossed a staggering $182,600 from two screens. A pair of unusual imports also had potent bows. The adult animated Persepolis(France’s Oscar submission) was impressive with an $85,100 box office in seven situations and the chiller The Orphanage (the top grosser in Spain this year) did $232,000 in a first foray at 19 sites.

Overall weekend revenues topped $183 million to best Christmas weekend by 15% and better the 2006 tally by 14%. With just a day left in the year initial estimates peg 2007 to show an improvement somewhere between 5% and 6%. Admissions appear to be perhaps 1% improved but could well be flat with 2006 owing to considerable growth for high ticket large format items that include such recent films as I Am Legend and Beowulf.

The closing days of the year might best be dubbed as to have and have not. The plus side certainly embraces Alvin and the Chipmunks which had been viewed as commercially challenged but is now expected to push close to $200 million domestically. And despite a commercial rally, the high profileCharlie Wilson’s War’s commercial verdict is likely to be determined by international response.

The flip side has one unequivocal casualty in Walk Hard and a likely major write off with Sweeney Todd. The latter film despite critical support hasn’t been able to overcome public resistance to a musical that tilts toward Grand Guignol extremes in grisly blood letting.

The session saw such features as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Kite Runner andAtonement holding up well in niche exposure. In a year where few prestige entries have been able to strategize platforms to the end, caution rather than boldness has set in and one can expect more of the same with this week’s newcomers.

One notable exception is Juno that added 693 playdates to bring it to 998 theaters this weekend and maintain a very sturdy $10,000 plus engagement average. The film’s initial surge boils down a sleight-of-hand in addressing teen pregnancy with candor and humor that has appeal to both sophisticated and blue collar audiences. It could well emerge as an even bigger success than Little Miss Sunshine.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – December 28-30, 2007

Top Domestic Grossers – To December 27, 2007*

Domestic Market Share – December 27, 2007

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