MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

Bring in the Junew …

December 30, 2007
Weekend Estimates
Limited Releases
Domestic Market Share

National Treasure: Book of Secrets maintained top spot in the last weekend of 2007 with an estimated $35.8 million. The frame experienced double digit expansion with more than a few surprises as several new titles entered the fray in wide and limited release. Alvin, Will Smith and, unexpectedly,Juno contributed mightily to a positive tilt in weekend movie going.

A trio of freshmen titles debuted Christmas Day with varying results. Alien vs. Predator – Requiemoffered a soupcon of counter-programming and ranked sixth overall for the weekend with an OK $9.9 million while the kid friendly The Water Horse generated a disappointing $9.1 million. The targeted-wide release of the uplifting drama The Great Debaters stepped out with an encouraging $6 million.

The situation was equally torrid among limited openers hoping to qualify for Oscars and such and strategically roll out in 2008. The star driven The Bucket List rang up close to a $20,000 theater average at 16 venues while the highly touted There Will Be Blood grossed a staggering $182,600 from two screens. A pair of unusual imports also had potent bows. The adult animated Persepolis(France’s Oscar submission) was impressive with an $85,100 box office in seven situations and the chiller The Orphanage (the top grosser in Spain this year) did $232,000 in a first foray at 19 sites.

Overall weekend revenues topped $183 million to best Christmas weekend by 15% and better the 2006 tally by 14%. With just a day left in the year initial estimates peg 2007 to show an improvement somewhere between 5% and 6%. Admissions appear to be perhaps 1% improved but could well be flat with 2006 owing to considerable growth for high ticket large format items that include such recent films as I Am Legend and Beowulf.

The closing days of the year might best be dubbed as to have and have not. The plus side certainly embraces Alvin and the Chipmunks which had been viewed as commercially challenged but is now expected to push close to $200 million domestically. And despite a commercial rally, the high profileCharlie Wilson’s War’s commercial verdict is likely to be determined by international response.

The flip side has one unequivocal casualty in Walk Hard and a likely major write off with Sweeney Todd. The latter film despite critical support hasn’t been able to overcome public resistance to a musical that tilts toward Grand Guignol extremes in grisly blood letting.

The session saw such features as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Kite Runner andAtonement holding up well in niche exposure. In a year where few prestige entries have been able to strategize platforms to the end, caution rather than boldness has set in and one can expect more of the same with this week’s newcomers.

One notable exception is Juno that added 693 playdates to bring it to 998 theaters this weekend and maintain a very sturdy $10,000 plus engagement average. The film’s initial surge boils down a sleight-of-hand in addressing teen pregnancy with candor and humor that has appeal to both sophisticated and blue collar audiences. It could well emerge as an even bigger success than Little Miss Sunshine.

– Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates – December 28-30, 2007

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
BV
35.8 (9,340)
-20%
3832
124.2
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Fox
29.4 (8,440)
4%
3484
141.8
I Am Legend
WB
27.6 (7,600)
-18%
3636
194.7
Charlie Wilson’s War
Uni
11.7 (4,550)
21%
2575
34.5
Juno
Fox Searchlig
10.1 (10,130)
195%
998
25.5
Alien vs. Predator: Requiem
Fox
9.9 (3,810)
x
2611
26.8
The Water Horse
Sony
9.1 (3,300)
x
2772
16.8
P.S. I Love You
WB
9.0 (3,640)
39%
2464
23.3
Sweeney Todd
Par
7.8 (6,280)
-16%
1249
26.6
Enchanted
BV
6.6 (2,930)
57%
2262
110.8
The Great Debators
MGM
6.0 (5,150)
x
1171
13.3
The Golden Compass
New Line
4.3 (2,230)
-8%
1935
58.7
Walk Hard
Sony
3.7 (1,380)
-12%
2650
12.2
Atonement
Focus
3.0 (9,720)
55%
310
11.1
No Country for Old Men
Miramax
2.1 (2,220)
14%
960
41
The Kite Runner
Par Vantage
1.8 (4,800)
54%
377
5.4
Bee Movie
Par
.66 (1,390)
62%
475
124.2
This Christmas
Sony
.53 (1,160)
-43%
457
49
The Savages
Fox Searchlig
.51 (4,590)
134%
111
1.7
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$179.60
x
x
x
% Change (Last Year)
14%
x
x
x
% Change (Last Week)
15%
x
x
x
Also debuting/expanding
The Bucket List
WB
.32 (19,810)
x
16
0.93
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Miramax
.26 (5,980)
113%
28
0.87
The Orphanage
Picturehouse
.23 (12,260)
x
19
0.23
There Will Be Blood
Par Vantage
.18 (91,300)
x
2
0.31
Persepolis
Sony Classics
85,100 (12,160)
x
7
0.16
Honeydripper
Emerging
9,600 (2,400)
x
4
0.01

Top Domestic Grossers – To December 27, 2007*

Title
Distributor
Gross
Spider-Man 3
Sony
336,635,065
Shrek the Third
Par
323,109,978
Transformers
Par
319,292,119
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s
BV
309,481,737
Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoe
WB
292,004,738
The Bourne Ultimatum
Uni
227,799,909
300
WB
210,702,543
Ratatouille
BV
206,445,654
The Simpsons Movie
Fox
183,135,014
Wild Hogs
BV
168,602,747
I Am Legend
WB
167,075,237
Knocked Up
Uni
148,835,304
Rush Hour 3
NLC
140,630,871
Live Free or Die Hard
Fox
134,529,403
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surf
Fox
131,921,738
American Gangster
Uni
128,724,010
Night at the Museum *
Fox
125,041,114
Bee Movie
Par
123,576,570
Superbad
Sony
122,351,411
I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry
Uni
120,068,788

Domestic Market Share – December 27, 2007

Distributor (releases)
Gross (Millio
Mkt Share
Paramount (20) 1469.9 16.20%
Warner Bros. (30) 1291.9 14.20%
Sony (28) 1226.4 13.50%
Buena Vista (19) 1198.8 13.20%
Universal (19) 1059.1 11.60%
Fox (22) 887.4 9.80%
New Line (14) 474.5 5.20%
Lions Gate (20) 369.2 4.10%
MGM (25) 350.5 3.80%
Miramax (13) 118.8 1.30%
Focus (9) 112.8 1.20%
Fox Searchlight (14) 106.4 1.20%
Picturehouse (7) 56.9 0.60%
Par Vantage (8) 54.3 0.60%
Other * (301) 315.9 3.50%
9092.8 100.00%
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Klady

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon