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David Poland

By David Poland

Sunday Estimates by Klady

Not only is this Rob Reiner’s biggest opening ever, topping A Few Good Men by almost $4 million, but it’s Jack Nicholson’t fourth biggest career opening, after Anger Management, Batman, and The Departed. Critics hate it… audiences love it.
Likewise, this is Ice Cube’s biggest opening aside from the Barbershop franchise. (And nice to see a distributor not leaning on Martin Lurther King, Jr Day weekend to release an “urban” movie.)
Juno is the gift that keeps on giving, as it cracks $70 million or more than $10 million past Little Miss Sunshine‘s box office mark. It is one of those phenoms of awards season that had this movie opened in summer and done $100 million or close, it would almost surely be out of the Oscar race like all other successful/not-indie-claiming comedies, aside from Ellen Page and screenplay… and instead is likely to be the biggest grosser nominated for Oscar’s Best Picture trophy this year.
Note P.S. I Love You‘s quiet $50 million… and Charlie Wilson’s War‘s quiet $60 million, which will become Mike Nichols’ second highest grossing film in his career.

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12 Responses to “Sunday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Josh Massey says:

    Kudos to pointing out P.S. I Love You and Charlie Wilson’s War – those were the two titles I looked at, thinking at first their totals must have been misprints. And I’m not sure why, but Enchanted almost feels like a disappointment at $122 million – I thought it would do $50 million more when I saw the first trailer.

  2. Wrecktum says:

    “And I’m not sure why, but Enchanted almost feels like a disappointment at $122 million – I thought it would do $50 million more when I saw the first trailer.”
    Shhh…don’t tell anyone. Disney doesn’t want us to notice.

  3. jeffmcm says:

    I thought it would do better, too, until I actually saw it. Great premise, mediocre execution.

  4. a_loco says:

    Did anyone else predict that First Sunday was gonna bomb? I did, I thought it looked awful. I can’t blame America too much for this one, even if the movie sucked (I haven’t seen it, and I don’t plan on it), it had 2 stars that deserve to be stars and a decent trailer.

  5. Chicago48 says:

    What a surprise — P.S. I love you has long legs! somebody must love it!

  6. Chicago48 says:

    First Sunday was poorly scripted and poorly directed with a lot of black stereotyping. definitely a rental …but Tracy Morgan is getting irritating to me….he reprises his 30 Rock role in this movie, not a stretch at all. And Ice Cube (what’s his REAL name?) snarls all through the movie. The “ethnic” community deserves better than this.

  7. MattM says:

    Don’t ask me why or how I know this, but somehow, I know that Ice Cube’s real name is “O’Shea Jackson.” And there’s always an audience for those urban comedies.
    What this weekend shows is how hungry the market was for new product. There really hadn’t been anything substantially new since 12/21. (Also, note that Sweeney did not expand well at all.)

  8. Chicago48 says:

    First Sunday is also showing that Black (ethnic) people are coming out of the house to see black-produced starring movies, be they bad or be they good.
    there is probably a really good pent-up Latino audience ready for “ethnic” movies, but nobody’s producing them.

  9. Aris P says:

    Chicago, I couldnt agree with you more. There are many large niches that have yet to be punctured, a pro-Iraq film (heroism of a certain troup, etc) being one of them. As far as the Latin thing, maybe it’s b/c there arent any Latino execs in Hollywood. In all my years, in various jobs, I never came across one.

  10. MattM says:

    Well, the African-American oriented “urban movie” has a pretty narrow range it’ll fall in:
    “Stomp the Yard,” “Why Did I Get Married?,” “Are We Done Yet?,” “This Christmas”–High Gross 61, Low Gross 49. Do one for 20, and you make tons of money.

  11. Josh Massey says:

    I live in a Hispanic section of Atlanta, and there are many films catering that community that open regularly at the local Regal. Hispanic releases tend to choose their theaters VERY carefully, because the producers know a wide release is pointless.

  12. “Critics hate it… audiences love it.”
    Isn’t it you who says opening weekend has nothing to do with quality.
    …yet, having said that, I can’t see how the opening for The Bucket List was based on the marketing. That trailer was so drippy I nearly drowned.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon