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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady – 3/12/08

friest031208.jpg
So what happened on Prom Night?
1. The best marketing materials for girls in this genre since The Ring.
2. Tracking doesn’t get teens… just doesn’t… why do people still get surprised?
3. Did I mention the marketing materials?
Street Kings will also do better than its best estimate for the weekend. See answer #2 above… and add penises.
Smart People will also be on the high side of estimates… and this is when star power does matter… when a $3.5 million opening looks good.
And those people who are going to Smart People? Many of the same adults who went to go see Leatherheads… and told their friends that they could wait until DVD.

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18 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady – 3/12/08”

  1. marychan says:

    Sorry David… a off-topic question:
    Sony acquired “88 minutes” in May 2007, and they are releasing it under TriStar banner. However, is it actually a Screen Gems release?

  2. David Poland says:

    Most Screen Gems movies are actually made by Screen Gems or acquired very early in the process.
    Tri-Star is a shell now, but the guy who was set up to market Tri-Star, with Valerie Van Galder, is the same guys who runs all of Screen Gems marketing these days, pretty independently. He is also the hottest name around town these days as someone studios would like to hire to run their marketing departments.
    So… he may be leading the way on 88 Minutes.
    Is that what you are asking?

  3. Cadavra says:

    Not quite. When TriStar folded as a production entity, the name was kept as a label for pick-ups (including, yes, THE LOST SKELETON OF CADAVRA). It was reactivated as a production entity in 2004 and Van Gelder was put in charge, but she only green-lit a few pictures (including LORDS OF DOGTOWN and RUNNING WITH SCISSORS) before being offered the top marketing post for all of Sony. TriStar is now back to being a label for pickups, like 88 MINUTES. And yes, Screen Gems is Screen Gems, doing its own production (though working with “regular” Sony for distribution and marketing).

  4. Wrecktum says:

    Smart People numbers actually don’t look too bad, considering its on only 1100 screens.
    Am I the only one who’s thinking Iron Man is going to be HUGE and, one week later, Speed Racer is going to TANK?

  5. jeffmcm says:

    Iron Man will probably be huge for the same reason that movies that launch Summer have been for the last few years – pent-up demand. And Speed Racer will partake in some of that as well.

  6. jeffmcm says:

    Oh, and this is the craziest weekend of limited releases in a long time. How did I miss Krazzy 1-3? and Bra Boys?

  7. Noah says:

    I think Speed Racer might actually benefit from opening a week after Iron Man. Because of a lack of “must-see” blockbusters, I think the first weekend of Iron Man is going to be so huge that the majority of people who are interested will go in the first six days. That way, by the time Speed Racer opens up, all the folks who saw Iron Man the previous weekend will gear up to go again. Then again, I could be terribly wrong and it wouldn’t be the first time.

  8. Wrecktum says:

    Speed Racer opens the second weekend of May. I’m sure Poland can explain why that’s one of the shittiest weekends of summer to open.

  9. Dr Wally says:

    If Ghost Rider can open to $50 million in February, i don’t think $80 million for Iron Man in May is at all out of the question. I would question Disney’s decision to open Prince Caspian just six days before Indy rather than wait until mid-June (with no Harry Potter this year and Wall-E not until 6/27), however. Last year the Big Three (Spidey, Shrek, Pirates) all seemed to suffer from being so close together in May (the part 2’s of all those franchises took in the neighborhood of $400 million domestically, the part 3’s down to the neighborhood of $300 million). What was that line in The Incredibles again? “When everyone’s super, no-one will be”.

  10. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Only thing worth mentioning is that the controversial DARK MATTER finally opened. BRA BOYS is worth a look Jeff. PROM NIGHTS stellar opening means we’ll definitely see a remake of HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME and a few other 80s slashers that have potential Gossip Girlesque crossover appeal. Look for our sexy update of BLOODY POM POMS in 09.

  11. marychan says:

    Thanks for you guys very much, David and Cadavra.
    THe reason I asked this question is kind of stupid(sorry….): I actually saw Screen Gems’ logo on the eariler version of “88 Minutes” US poster (but the final version of the poster showed TriStar’s logo rather than Screen Gems’ logo). And then, I remember David said that Screen Gems was actually releasing “I Know Who Killed Me”(which was offically credited as TriStar release). So I hope to get more infos to confirm my suspect.
    Finally, thanks David and Cadavra again.

  12. jeffmcm says:

    Thanks, JBD, but the small amount of research I did on Bra Boys made me significantly less interested already. What makes you say it’s worth checking out?

  13. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    jeff – Because along with Forbidden Lies its one of the more interesting Aussie docs to come out in sometime. It’s more intense and raw than it looks. Love em or hate em – the subjects do not censor themselves. Actually though Forbidden Lies is one of the best docs out there – period. See it.

  14. My esteemed associate Pete Vonder Haar over at Film Threat started a new thing at the site where he reviews film studios don’t do press screenings for but he does them “sight unseen.” PROM NIGHT was the launch piece and I think it’s pretty f-ing funny:
    http://www.filmthreat.com/index.php?section=features&Id=2174

  15. JBD, I haven’t seen Bra Boys – the highest grossing Aussie doc of all time btw – because the subject matter is so unappealing (yay, let’s glorify hoodlums!) but I’m glad to hear you liked Forbidden Lie$ (the $ is part of the title). It was a fantastic doc. Norma Khouri was 2007’s Best Actress :p
    I’d also suggest people check out Hunt Angels. It’s visually astounding, and also fascinating to learn about how American gangsters took over our film industry.

  16. Cadavra says:

    Marychan: You weren’t seeing things. Sometimes a releasing label is switched for various internal reasons. For example, some of the last TriStar productions (including GODZILLA) went out as Columbia.

  17. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    hey kami – i won’t reply to the drama queen line on the other post.. i could say it takes one yadda yadda. ; )
    Anyway Forbidden Lie$ is one of the Friedman type docs that make you want to talk to people immediately afetrwards and disagree vehemently – because ‘they’ don’t get it.
    I actually heard two women talking as they left and the gist of it was “oh its her fathers fault, it was all a coping mechanism”… I nearly spat my coffee in her face. I am always amazed that when allegations of any sexual abuse come up, the truth is instantly secondary to the victimisation of the supposed recipient. Its kind of like collateral damage… who cares if there’s a few innocent casualties..in the big picture scheme of things its justifiable. Yuk.
    But I urge everyone to see the doc – Anna B did a fantastic job even though one of the most obvious things to ask was this “how come you don’t have one other piece of evidence of this friend, apart from that photo”. You’d think 30yrs of friendship would contain more than one photo. But Norma is compulsively watchable – having dealt with people who even under intense and undeniable proof of guilt will continue to lie in your face – I found it fascinating. She’s on of the best con artists I’ve ever seen on film and in life. Amazing film.

  18. Chucky in Jersey says:

    To jeffmcm: “Krazzy 4” is a Bollywood pic.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon