Friday Estimates by Klady – 5/24
So… this estimate is still the fourth biggest Friday that wasn’t opening day in history, behind Star Wars 3/6, Spidey 2, and Matrix 2. Still not a story.
It is also pointed out to me that none of the actual forecasts by the tracking companies came close to the $170m bandied around by Steve Mason and Nikki Finke, who positioned Paramount’s discussion of the actual tracing projections as a lowering of their projections. Part of the problem there is that now that Brad Grey feeds Finke, he seems to get overly enthusiastic, which she then runs, whether in box office or excitement about deals that are not as positive as spun. So perhaps the blame is not 100% on her… unless you still think of her box office coverage as journalistic in some way. Or did the higher numbers come from the competition that wants to see a $140 million 5-day look like a disappointment?
There is something thrilling about record-breaking. But it’s not always going to happen. You don’t have to be math whiz to have noticed a year ago that this summer is not going to be the kind of summer we had last year… though it might be more profitable. And my projection of Indy was always a summer leading $350m… not the $400 million-plus that you would have to project in a softer-than-2007 summer if it actually did a $170 million 5-day.
Anyway…
Narnia took a big hit this weekend and suddenly looks like $125m is going to be a stretch. Lots of dissection to come on that at Disney… and even more so, Anchutz’ office, where all the self-hype going into the release is now looking ill-conceived.
Iron Man is still holding like a champ. And Speed Racer is just barely going to beat out Harold & Kumar II at the domestic box office. Brutal.
Not only that, “Speed Racer” gets put in the fence by “Made of Honor” (which I’m seeing tonight) and “Baby Mama”.
If a man can be maid of honor, a woman can win the Indianapolis 500. Go Danica!
Saw Indy and thought it was fine. It was NEVER going to be another Raiders (and those who are using Raiders as the yardstick to beat the movie with should get some perspective). It also lacks the wit and heart of the Tom Stoppard-doctored Last Crusade, but on it’s own merits it’s the kind of rambuctious, stirring all-audience entertainment that we’ve not seen from Spielberg in far too long. There’s some tremendous images here (Indy silhouetted against a mushroom cloud, the fedora being ‘carried’ by a sea of giant ants, the Mayan warriors in the temple coming out of the shadows) and Harrison Ford seems more energized and committed than he has in ages. Two cheers. Oh, and i still think Narnia will do more than $125m, 66% drop or no. In a way, Disney can probably be glad of Speed Racer being around to take all the hits as the loser of the summer, whatever you think of the movie.
A few weeks ago, while my wife and I were discussing the possible effects of rising gas prices, she posited an intriguing theory: Maybe movie attendance might actually rise to record levels this summer, because families could decide to forego day trips (like, Houston to Galveston, etc.) or weekend sorties to far-off amusement parks, and simply go to a movie (or two) instead, to save money on gas. I don
I remember a number of Texas summers after my dad got laid off for a time where I was “gently encouraged” to spend the afternoon sneaking into movies (the buy-one-get-two-free plan) if I wanted to keep cool as we sure as hell weren’t going to turn on the a/c.
So, families not being able to afford day trips led to me seeing more movies in the theater, but did little to actually increase box office take.
Really, Wally? You thought Ford seemed “energized”? He seemed pretty lethargic to me, and so did a good chunk of the movie. Apparently I’m not the only one who’s bored to tears guesstimating just how much lucre “Indy 4” is going to make this weekend…snooze; more than it deserves, I’m sure.
The thing is….eh, OK; slightly better than the somnambulant “Last Crusade,” but nothing worth getting your panties (or briefs) wet over. I still think it’s Spielberg’s worst overall since ’97’s pitiful “Lost World,” and I’m a SS lover from way back. (I get weepy-eyed remembering 2002, his all-time greatest year.)
I’m really kind of stunned at just how miserably “Speed Racer” has done….what the ****????
Is this the sort of movie that people are going to look back upon in 25-30 years and hail as a “lost masterpiece” (a la “Heaven’s Gate,” “Ishtar” and even–bleuch–“Tron” in certain quarters)?
Not that anyone cares, here’s my personal ranking of May’s “Big 4” (in order of preference):
Chim-Chim; oops, I mean Speedy
Iron-M
Narnia 2
Indy 4
I’m actually a big defender of The Lost World. There are some terrific action set pieces in that movie. I love the bit where tthe 2 dinos rip the guy in half. I also think the sequence where Moore and Goldblum are hanging in the bus (?) shows some slapstick-level timing.
The Lost World is a pretty good movie, I’d call it more entertaining than, say, The Fifth Element or Godzilla ’98 or Twister, to pick big movies from that era. By Spielberg standards it’s fairly minor, and it’s pretty uneven – it goes from the highs of that dangling set-piece to the lows of Goldblum’s daughter fighting dinosaurs with gymnastics.
My ranking so far is:
Indy 4
Iron Man
Speed Racer
…
(no desire to see Narnia 2)
For me, “Lost World” came near the end of Spielberg’s “post-‘E.T.’ decline period,” and before his unofficial comeback with “Private Ryan” a year later. (I still hate the bookending scenes in “Ryan,” though: I remember describing them as George “Poppy” Bush and Gloria Stuart in a remake of “Night of the Living Dead.”)
Yes, I realize that means I’m not a fan of “Schindler’s List,” “The Color Purple,” “Last Crusade,” etc. I even think that “Empire of the Sun”–largely unoved in ’87 but “rediscovered” today as some kind of unsung classic–was vaguely overrated.
But “Catch Me if You Can,” “Minority Report” and “A.I.” all qualify as masterpieces in my book. Hell, I even put “1941” on my 1979 10-best list…that should tell you just how big a Spielberg nut I was back in my college days, LOL.
And for the record, I like “Indy 4” a lot more than “Lost World” which felt like pure whoring to me 11 summers ago. The new “Indy” just seems a little tired and irrelevant.
“Twister” (snooze) and “Godzilla” (bleuch), yeah, Jeff; but I totally dug “The Fifth Element.” In fact, Besson’s “The Big Blue” is one of my all-time favorite guilty pleasures: I adore that movie!
Fifth Element is a dream to view. Even in today’s slambang world, Luc Bessons’s oozes more style in one frame than can be seen in entire films.
Rewatched Lost World a month ago. Good enough dialogue, but odd character reactions, and special effects that simply aren’t as impressive as the first’s.
Harold & Kumar was released in July, on a budget of $9 million. Made back $18 million. Harold & Kumar 2 was released in April, on a budget of $12 million. Made back $36 million. These were likely the numbers the studio were expecting from the first movie, and should be congratulated for sticking with the writers and not going direct to video as originally planned.
ditto on ‘the big blue’ movieman! what do you think of besson’s longer cut, have you seen it? just curious, from one ‘blue’ lover to another
i remember sitting in the theatre in absolute shock when i saw ‘the lost world’ after reading crighton’s book. the movie has pretty much nothing in common whatsoever with the story in the novel, which was quite good. i’ve always wondered why they changed it so drastically, i thought it was sheer folly.
The Big Blue was a great introduction to Jean Reno. “Don’t bust my balls, Jacques”. Great cameo in La Femme Nikita as well.
For unknown reasons, I decided to revisit the Emmerich “Godzilla” a few months back; Mind you, I’m an Emmerich apologist/semi-fan, if only because I love big, dumb spectacle… but man, what a strangely murky, uninvolving film, even on its own summer blockbuster terms.
I prefer “Lost World” to “Jurassic Park,” oddly enough. It’s just a little more lean and mean, more of a moody B-movie than its aw-shucks predecessor.
I liked “Crystal Skull,” despite cringing at the refrigerator escape (though the test site bit was AWESOME) and Karen Allen driving onto a fucking tree and riding it into the water…
But it’s sad (if unsurprising) to see that the fanboy backlash is pretty massive; Folks on IMDB and AICN seem to be livid. That’s too bad. It’s a flawed movie, even clunky in some spots, but such an affectionate reunion and winking homage to so many of its two creators’ early works, I couldn’t really resist. I think the biggest problem for the die-hard geeks is the updating to the ’50s just makes it feel SO different from its predecessors, which were all pretty much of a piece.
Actually, the most interesting thing about the Friday numbers is that there’s so much top suckage, 5 of the top 10 didn’t even make $1M…
Yeah, with all that dead weight in the top 10 sucking up the works, I’m extra-annoyed that DR. UWE BOLL couldn’t get his POSTAL into more than 10-17 (depending on who you talk to) screens in ALL OF AMERICA.
In LA it’s at some Laemmle’s in Santa Monica and Culver City. Much as I love the good doctor — and I’ve seen every non-DTV release of his on the silver screen — I don’t know if I can justify a $20 tank of gas to head to the ass-end of Santa Monica, which might as well be fucking Pluto to me, to see his latest on Monday afternoon.
Did nobody else notice that not only did the scene following the refridgerator escape (the interogation scene) featured the janitor from Scrubs, but also Alan Dale? I think the heads of my entire cinema of 300 people collectively exploded upon that cosmic event.
Who?
Sorry if “guilty pleasure” made it seem as though I was ashamed to love “The Big Blue;” that’s definitely not the case.
I’ve never seen a movie that photographed water as lovingly (hell, rapturously) as Besson’s gorgeous fever dream of a film. Yeah, some of the performances are clunky, and the accents occasionally thud, but it’s pure visual poetry and moves me to my very core each and every time.
And yep, I have seen the “extended” version (in fact, it was one of the first DVDs I ever bought). You can never have too much of a good thing.
I’m sorry that Besson has largely abandoned directing these days to concentrate on producing lesser directors’ films (hello Louis Letterier!), but I still have my memories of “Blue,” “The Professional” and “The Fifth Element” to keep me warm at nite, lol.
Neil Flynn (the janitor from Scrubs and a member of ASSSSSSCAT.)
And Alan Dale is Widmore on Lost (and was Kristin’s dad on The O.C., kids).
And he was on Neighbours and 24 and seemingly ever television show known to mankind.
I don’t watch enough TV apparently.
I watch some of those shows, just checked his pic on IMDB, and I don’t remember this motherfucker from anything.
Alan Dale is a bit of a joke (the good kind) here in Australia. It took him 60 years to finally make it in America and everytime we turn on the TV he appears to be guest starring on yet another TV show.
Although he did appear on Sea Patrol, which is a depressing thought, considering it’s one of the worst TV shows I’ve ever watched, be it Australian, American, British, Guatamalan*, etc…
(*i’ve never seen anything from Guatamala, sad but true)
I’ve seen every episode of 24 and have no idea who you’re talking about. Sarah Wynter, yes, and I deeply miss her, the best female love interest they ever had on 24.
Lost World had some good stuff but totally lost me when they got to the teenager kickboxing the dino bit. So horrendously stupid I couldn’t understand how Spielberg had sunk that low. And I agree the way they dumbed down the Crichton books was astonishing.
5Th Element was visually spectacular but I agree it got dull in spots and was way too in love with Milla. Yes she’s cute, but was a very weak core to the story.
Dumbed down “Jurassic Park”? That’s the most skeletal book I’ve ever read. It’s basically a screenplay. The characters have no depth nor motivation. It’s WESTWORLD with dinosaurs.
I think Lost World is Spielberg’s worst film as a Director (as a Producer…man, there are too many to pick from). But it has that “herd chase scene” toward the beginning which was fun, but it’s pretty bad, uninspiring overall. “Hook” is close, a lot of my friends love it, but I think that’s because we saw it as little kids. 1941 is silly and juvenille, but pretty bad. I’ve never seen Always or The Color Purple.
5th Element is one of those really bizarre movies that just taps into the 12 year old boy in us all. I saw it five times in a theater, partly because I couldn’t quite figure the hell out of if it was. Luc Besson gets WAY to much credit for the handful of films he’s done. I like Leon and all but it’s not THAT great.