Iron Man rigidly held sway in the marketplace despite a 49% box office decline with an estimated $50.2 million gross. That proved to be bad news for the bow of Speed Racer that was expected to rank a close second but wound up fighting a hard race with the romantic comedy What Happens in Vegas. Estimates place Vegas marginally ahead at $20.1 million but within a statistical margin of error that could reverse the order when actuals are reported Monday.

The frame also saw a number of expansions as well as a clutch of newcomers in regional and niche exploitation. The fantasy adventure The Fall racked up very good initial response of $72,700 from nine venues while the literary adaptation ofThe Stone Angel on a comparable number of screens grossed $53,200 in Canada. There was also a buoyant bow for the indie drama After the Rains of $44,300 at six sites and OK returns of $24,500 for the French spy parody OSS 117 – Cairo,Nest of Spies in seven exploits. The non-fiction Surfwise crested the wave with $9,650 from a single screen and pre-Juno Ellen Page in The Tracy Fragments generated $3,500 from one Manhattan screen following a $50,000 gross in Canada.

Overall revenues bumped up 17% from 2007 on estimates of $125 million while declining 23% from last week’s Iron Man launch. Twelve months back Spider-Man 3 ruled with a $58.2 million sophomore session with freshmen entries 28 Weeks Later and Georgia Rule eating the dust with respective tallies of $9.8 million and $6.8 million.

Apart from the frame’s new entries, industry eyes were focused on how steep a decline Iron Man would experience. Pundits braced for a 60% hit but in light of diminished competition the comic book fugitive could boast of a slightly better than 50% rigor.

It’s unclear what messages Speed Racer’s studio was receiving but clearly they were not positive and one suspects both tracking studies and preview responses contributed to lowered expectations leading up to opening day. The ad campaign presumed little more than its title was necessary as a lure and that proved ill-founded as the film struggled to $20 million in its debut. Officially, Warner Bros. is “disappointed” and concerned that its audience is “very young” and those kids that adored the television anime appear to have focused their nostalgia on another pulp hero.

What Happens in Vegas conversely made all the right moves including a sneak preview to build up word of mouth. While critics were not particularly impressed, audiences found sufficient humor and chemistry in the mix to surpass target projections.

The situation internationally reflected an even sharper contrast between Speed and Vegas. Both films bowed in such countries as Spain, Germany and the U.K. and in each instance Vegas outpaced the hotrodder by three to five times. Vegas also beat Iron Man for weekend bragging rights in Germany and Spain but Speed Racer ranked second to the sturdy superhero in Mexico and Brazil.

Slow roll outs for such specialized fare as The Visitor, Young@Heart and Son of Rambow continue to weather well in these early days of summer. However, the rapid expansion of Redbelt proved to be a dud as it expanded from six to 1,379 venues and instantly discovered despite its martial arts backdrop that it had decidedly niche limitations.

Among new entries The Fall that had been much ballyhooed at Toronto in 2006 finally found distribution and initial response was encouraging for its commercial struggle. OSS 117 – Cairo, Nest of Spies also had its travails finding an outlet following enthusiastic response on the festival circuit. One imagines its mix of slapstick and parody will compare favorably when agent Max Smart hits screens next month.

– Leonard Klady

Estimates – May 9-11, 2008

Domestic Market Share – To May 8, 2008

To Domestic Grossers – To May 8, 2008

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