Weekend Estimates by Klady
So Narnia 2 opens about $10 million behind Narnia 1… why?
Don’t really know. Did skewing older cost them? Maybe. There could be some parents waiting to make sure, around the soccer field, that it’s safe for the little ones. There was more competition here… $25 million more grossed by the rest of the Top 5 this weekend than on Narnia 1’s first weekend. And there was a marketing emphasis on the new star and much less on the four kids at the center of the first film. But… who really knows?
Another nice hold for Iron Man. Great numbers, but it still remains $60m behind Spider-Man 3 and $50 million ahead of X2: X-Men United as it heads into its first weekend with some market-changing competition, a luxury S-M3 didn’t have. This suggests a total around $270 million.
Speed Racer continues to drop like a stone after being the media whipping boy for the last two weeks. Too bad.
Forbidden Kingdom is surely the quietest $50 million hit of the year.
ROMAN DE GARE is also doing surprisly well at box office.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=romandegare.htm
I saw the movie in the Landmark in yesterday, and the audience response seems to be very good.
Anyway, it it good to see a foreign-language is doing well at US box office, especially for a Claude Lelouch movie.
[it it good to see a foreign-language is doing well at US box office,]
I mean , not only
I’m sorry I made another mistake…. (It would be good If I can re-edit my message)…. I repost the last sentence of my first message in here:
[Anyway, it it good to see a foreign-language movie is doing well at US box office, especially for a Claude Lelouch movie.]
“So Narnia 2 opens about $10 million behind Narnia 1… why?”
Could it it have anything to do with the fact that the book is the least interesting in the series? I know opening weekend is theoretically all about the marketing, but on such a well-known book as this, knowledge of the product could have been a factor.
Also, they should have used Reepicheep more in the marketing. He’s arguably the most appealing character, and hasn’t been in the trailers at all.
Speed Racer dropped due to word of mouth not because it’s a “media whipping boy.”
Iron Man is well on its way to over $300m, not $270. Good lord, Poland. It’s at almost $225 right now and just made $30m in its third weekend. Kids aren’t even out of school yet. Wait for the weekdays to start stabilizing the next few weeks.
A lot of people I know that saw the first film decided not to see this one because they didn’t the first movie was all that good. I felt the same way myself. I’d say the movie floundered because it was released in the summer. Summer is for superheroes, winter is for epics. I’m sure somebody will bring up examples to prove me wrong, but flicks like the Narnia movies will always do better as a family event over Christmas holidays, just like LOTR
“Another nice hold for Iron Man. Great numbers, but it still remains $60m behind Spider-Man 3 and $50 million ahead of X2: X-Men United as it heads into its first weekend with some market-changing competition, a luxury S-M3 didn’t have. This suggests a total around $270 million.”
I’ve crunched the numbers over and over again, and there’s nothing that suggests that IRON MAN is going to finish with a domestic total that low.
IRON MAN’s third weekend total is higher than SPIDER-MAN 3, and it’s not dropping nearly as fast. If for some reason, the bottom fell out and it did start following SPIDER-MAN 3’s trajectory, $270 million would be the absolute bottom end.
BTW, Dave, I’d be interested to hear what effect you think this will have on Voyage of the Dawn Treader. I mean, it’s kind of unlikely that this film will make two thirds what the first one made. That’s got to have some adverse effects on future sequels.
Iron Man is a lock $300 million movie, and Indy will have to hustle to top it. Just my 2c.
“Summer is for superheroes, winter is for epics. I’m sure somebody will bring up examples to prove me wrong, but flicks like the Narnia movies will always do better as a family event over Christmas holidays, just like LOTR”
While I think your sentiment is right, HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX did pretty well for itself opening in July.
That’s a good example you bring up, and Prisoner of Azkaban didn’t do terrible in June either, but Harry Potter is part of the current pop culture zeitgeist while Narnia is something that persists based on parents giving the books to their kids.
In other words, Narnia is more of a family movie while Harry Potter is a “let’s go see it with our friends” movie. I’m not talking in absolutes here, but in general I feel it’s this way.
And besides, Harry Potter might as well be a superhero.
It didn’t hurt that The Order of the Phoenix was released just days before the final book was released.
LYT gets it right regarding Caspian. It’s a weaker book, and the number of people who have read Caspian is probably a fraction of the number who have read Wardrobe.
Disney should realize they made a mistake with the release date and move Dawn Treader to December where it belongs. Dawn Treader offers more adventure and should feature more “money shots.”
Yeah, it was all those 12 year olds who spent the last weeks breathlessly following SPEED RACER stories in “the media” that cause it’s demise. Sure, sure.
Couldn’t be anything like, oh say, this personal anecdote:
A friend went to see REDBELT last friday (opening day), but decided to kill the 2 hours beforehand watching RACER. He called me 45 minutes later, “I couldn’t take any more. I had to leave and now I’m so bummed out by how bad it was that I really don’t want to see anything else tonight.”
yeah as a family event it will do well as kids are set free from their schools for the summer, it will have good legs and do well overseas. Parents may have qualms, these kids (adults in kids bodies, something Lewis always ignored but the film is actually addressing) lay down the slaughter on other people. Susan alone kills probably 20-40 people. They’re not just fighting ‘bad’ beasties this time, it’s people and that won’t sit quite as well with some of the conservative audience. I however thought the violence was awesome, especially including Peter decapitating the Telmarine Noble (in the book).
I am surprised by the Narnia number….I am not drinking David’s Kool-Aid, but I thought that sequel to a popular book and movie would open bigger. Though it seems, to have an open field till Kung Fu Panda. I am not sure how much cross-over between Indy and Narnia.
I do question Disney’s marketing team though. They seem to take the last film success for granted and not to push it. It seemed like quite a low key approach. I have a feeling that they knew that they might be in trouble because they really started to push the movie using critic quote television commercials. I remember when the first film came out, I saw Commercials EVERYWHERE. I am not sure if the mouse got cocky with their franchise, but you still need to sell it. Where were the stars? Where were the cover stories? Last summer, you could see the BIG THREE(Spidey, Shrek, Pirates) press EVERYWHERE. Granted the Narnia stars are not huge celebrities, but I think that the mouse dropped the ball… I am still looking forward to seeing it though…
I also wonder what the tracking of Zohan is….I know that there seems to be a magic Sandler number of 120-140 million. But I think that the audience will start to get a little smarter. I would think that most people would agree that his last two comedies (click and Chuck and Larry) were underwhelming…though personally I found them quite painful to watch…I would think that he is due a Ferrell let down…
I am surprised by the Narnia number….I am not drinking David’s Kool-Aid, but I thought that sequel to a popular book and movie would open bigger. Though it seems, to have an open field till Kung Fu Panda. I am not sure how much cross-over between Indy and Narnia.
I do question Disney’s marketing team though. They seem to take the last film success for granted and not to push it. It seemed like quite a low key approach. I have a feeling that they knew that they might be in trouble because they really started to push the movie using critic quote television commercials. I remember when the first film came out, I saw Commercials EVERYWHERE. I am not sure if the mouse got cocky with their franchise, but you still need to sell it. Where were the stars? Where were the cover stories? Last summer, you could see the BIG THREE(Spidey, Shrek, Pirates) press EVERYWHERE. Granted the Narnia stars are not huge celebrities, but I think that the mouse dropped the ball… I am still looking forward to seeing it though…
I also wonder what the tracking of Zohan is….I know that there seems to be a magic Sandler number of 120-140 million. But I think that the audience will start to get a little smarter. I would think that most people would agree that his last two comedies (click and Chuck and Larry) were underwhelming…though personally I found them quite painful to watch…I would think that he is due a Ferrell let down…
sorry about the double post
blah blah summer movies, who cares when the first trailer for Baz Luhmann’s Australia just premiered an hour ago?!?
Gorgeous
Gorgeous
Gorgeous
Amazing
It’s times like these that I realise why I still haven’t seen Iron Man.
Yes, it’s very nice. For Australians.
Sigh, remember when Nicole Kidman looked like this:
http://www.haberdefteri.com/haberresimleri/1nicole_kidman.jpg
So sad.
“blah blah summer movies, who cares when the first trailer for Baz Luhmann’s Australia just premiered an hour ago?!?
Gorgeous
Gorgeous
Gorgeous
Amazing
It’s times like these that I realise why I still haven’t seen Iron Man.”
The Hot Blog: Where Being Contemptible Happens.
io — you might want to revisit your posts on friday may 5 before tossing around ‘contemptable’….
Contemptible…because he’s looking forward to a movie?
Or because (horrors!) he hasn’t seen a particular one?
Just curious which – or both?
The Hot Blog: Where THOSE TWO Happen.
Well, a) I was semi-joking about the attitude towards summer movies, although – let’s be honest – is there anything that hasn’t already been said about any of them? and b) well, I’ve been waiting for this movie for 7 years (I saw Moulin Rouge! six or seven times at the cinema, call me crazy). Plus, it looks freakin’ a-maaay-zing.
I’m having my fanboy moment. And I didn’t even once mention Hugh Jackman and boners in correlation to each other so I deserve bonus points.
Wrecktum, “Yes, it’s very nice. For Australians.” I don’t get it. Is there something in the trailer that makes you believe it’s some sort of only-for-Australians film? Or what?
Also, while I agree that it’s absurd that she claims to have had nothing done to her face, if you watch the trailer on youtube (if you click my name you can see it at my blog) I think the moment at 1:05, where she and Jackman are about to kiss, she looks quite stunning.
The Hot Blog – Where every replier has their geekout moment.
I know I’m jumping the gun here, but any thoughts on May of 2009? Star Trek is sandwiched between Wolverine and Angels & Demons. The second week in May seems to be a trouble spot sometimes. See Poseidon. I can see Wolverine being the Iron Man to Star Trek’s Speed Racer. Though they aren’t comparable and I’m really looking forward to what Abrams does with Star Trek.
I love that a $56m start is considered disappointing. I think everyone, including Disney, took for granted the success of the first film. But again, $56m opening isn’t anything to sneeze at.
Yeah, Disney’s marketing for this one was not strong. They got lazy and assumed everyone who saw the first film would show for the second. I’m sure they’ll learn from this and do a better job with Dawn Treader.
Kami — You don’t think the music used in the AUSTRALIA trailer too distracting or the shot of the hand gently brushing through the waving wheat too derivative or the photography/lighting in the framing device of Nicole talking to the Aboriginal child too fake and Photoshopped or her acting too…bad?
Don’t get me wrong, I love MOULIN ROUGE, and I looked for this trailer based on your enthusiasm, but I’m not seeing it.
DP, is it possible that there is not enough room in May for 3 tent pole movies unless they have defined, built in audience? I think Speed Racer not performing up to expectations is one thing, it could easily be explained for one movie. But Caspian underperforming, for a movie that is supposed to have a built in audience?
Last year (shrek3, Spidey3, Pirates3) and even ’06 (MI3, Davince, X3) were all movies with built in/mature audiences and there was plenty of room for them and they all did well and in general, up to expectations.
Before this May, one could argue that Iron Man would be the one left out (Speed for kids and the already established brand with Narnia). However, Iron is playing great, marketing was spot one and it exceeded expectations. Meanwhile speed’s marketing was all over the place and the critics did not jump on board. Of course, it is too early for Narnia. If it does 4.5x opening (like the first one) that would leave it with $255M ($290M was the first). Probably below expectations, but at that number, it would still have to be a sucess. Though I am sure Indy will eat into Narnia next week. This is a small sample size, but we always wonder if every movie can win in a crowded May, and they seem to hold up until this May.
The framing device I think is actually a part of the movie that has nothing to do with the grand scheme of the movie. Because she looks like she’s in Darwin at the time (where the war sequences happen) and there’s really no reason why she would talk to a local Aboriginal girl and call the country it’s set in as “Oz”. I’m actually tempted to believe its a) a seperate thing Baz did purely for the trailer or b) she’s describing The Wizard of Oz to the girl and it just happens that it mirrors her own story of her and an unlikely companion walking a long way to discover what they already had. The movie is set in the early ’40s so Oz would have just been released and apparently there’s a scene that actually shows the movie, so… yeah. I dunno. I’m sure Baz has an explanation for it.
Also, I think the sort of oddness to the surroundings in Nicole’s storytime bit is to give the illusion of matte backdrops and the like. Notice the sky looks exactly the same as it does at the end of Gone with the Wind?
I thought the music was beautiful (apparently it’s from Kenneth Branaugh’s Henry V?) and the wheat bit was the only shot I was a bit irksome about, but there’s so many other great shots! The horse emerging from the billabong! The tribesman dancing! The horses seperating towards the left and right around the cattle! Nicole cracking that whip like she’s Devo!
But, then again, I was clearly biased.
On the ho hum reception to Narnia 2, could it be simply that it didn’t feel necessary to see it. It’s not a followon from the first one. It’s set 1000 years later! The only thing connecting it to the Wardrobe are the kids and it’s not like they’re the Harry Potter lot, are they?
I finally checked out the “Australia” trailer, Kamikaze, and I have to agree that it looks pretty frigging spectacular. Big Luhrrman fan here, too: it seems almost inconceivable that it’s been seven years between films already.
The only negative flare that it sent up was a bottom-line one: it appears to be a pretty expensive movie, and I’m wondering just how well it’s going to perform in the U.S. (Europeand Australia- duh–are, of course, an entirely different story.)
As much as I adore Nic, she’s been b.o. poison for quite some time now, and Jackman has never really opened a non-“X” movie.
In Australia it could easily become one of the highest grossing films ever – Moulin Rouge! was huge and the trailer was even a big story on the evening news – and Europe/Asia should be strong. I can see it getting to around $80mil on the size of it all. It doesn’t have the talky talky smarty-pants vibe that Atonement had and if it gets great reviews I’m sure people will get out and see it.
Plus, about the Kidman thing, come November she will have had her kid and just maybe that’ll melt the cold cold exterior that people think she has and they’ll fall in love with her again.