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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady – May 4

And there you go…
I am going to restrain myself from discussion the ownership issues on this movie and Indy 4, as I am sure that it will be turned into a “sour grapes” game from those who wish to paint me as an Iron Man basher or, for that matter, a Paramount basher.
No one can be unimpressed with the success of this weekend for Paramount marketing.

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24 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady – May 4”

  1. Blackcloud says:

    It’ll all be down to next weekend to determine whether Iron Man crosses $300M or settles in the $250-$275M range.

  2. Tofu says:

    X3 opened around the same, so the ground floor looks to be a $235 million finish.

  3. David Poland says:

    Again… Spider-Man 3 was $50 million ahead of this number on opening weekend… and got to $336m. Though it does not face two three-quels, it does face two massive sequels in the same weeks to come.
    $250 million is still the reasonable target. But I’m sure that this will be shouted down until we actually know.

  4. messiahcomplexio says:


  5. Rothchild says:

    Poland I’d bet you a thousand dollars this makes more than 250 million. You keep comparing it to Spider-Man 3, a movie people hated. People actually like this movie. A lot.

  6. Tofu says:

    Yes, this could be like Transformers, where word of mouth actually factors into the blockbuster becoming a blockbuster.

  7. Richard Nash says:

    IRON MAN has earned that opening. Its really an enjoyable film.

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    And look! 21 continues to hang in there (barely). Almost at $80 million. Could it possibly limp toward $85 mil?
    And Prom Night. Will it tap at out $50, or $45? If the latter, will we see Prom Night II,/i> anyway?

  9. ManWithNoName says:

    Prom Night II:
    The first was so bad, she decided to go back!

  10. christian says:

    Well, 98.3 million is okay but if you figure in all the…arggghhh…

  11. Dellamorte says:

    I don’t see how you can compare this to sequels. I mean, I think 2002’s $400 Million for Spider-Man is out of the question, not with Paramount’s busy Summer slate, but $250 strikes me as low. It’ll be going in to Caspian over $200, at this point without question.

  12. TheJeff says:

    No one can be unimpressed with the success of this weekend for Paramount marketing.
    IRON MAN’s success can’t just be attributed to crafty marketing though. It’s a damn good movie, and the strong reviews and word of mouth are surely at least partly responsible for the big Friday-to-Saturday jump.

  13. anghus says:

    man, it’s hilarious when people on Friday were dancing on the grave of a second tier Marvel character that ONLY was looking at 88 million.
    Now at 98 Million, the tone has changed.
    But still, it’s not 100 million, so were not talking a blockbuster, right?
    i think i’m officially done with box office prognostication. it’s such an inexact bullshit ‘science’. And it’s starting to deflate my interest in summer films.
    Even if Iron Man had made ONLY 88 million for the weekend, you had a character well known by comic book fans and kids who might have seen the animated series that ran a few years back. It starred Robert Downey Jr, who no one had any expectations of ten years ago and has now managed to climb back to a position where he’s doing quality work and getting recognition for it, and it’s from ‘The Director of Zathura’.
    And it made almost 100 million over the weekend. Even at ONLY 88 Million, that would be impressive.
    Congrats to Downey, Paramount Marketing, Marvel Studios and ‘the Director of Zathura’.

  14. David Poland says:

    And that Anghus, has been my point all week.
    This is a great number, about 15% ahead of what seemed completely reasonable. The smaller number would have been great. This is great.
    And no, TheJeff, people liking or disliking the movie it not a major issue in this opening. It isn’t the case 98% of the time when a movie is hated and doesn’t open either. Opening is opening. Legs are legs. And every year, that becomes more true.
    I think you will find that the biggest factor in this opening is that parents did, in the end, bring the younger kids. They probably represent about $20 million of this number.
    People love to argue that their opinion matters. But the realities don’t change based on any of our whims.
    And Transformers made more than 49% of its domestic gross by the end of its opening weekend… to be fair, a 6-day opening. But that does not indicate great legs, even if you liked the film, Tofu.

  15. Geoff says:

    Why so serious? So you were off a bit about this one – no big deal. So was I, so were a lot of people. Honestly, I doubt you would say this, but I have a feeling that Par fudged the numbers a bit, this weekend – $90 million would have been nothing to be ashamed of, but they wanted the “$100 Million” headlines. If they report numbers 60% lower next weekend to make up the diff, I’ll know I’m right.
    But some of your comparisons are faulty. Transformers DID have good worth of mouth and it’s a true anomaly – it had TWO full opening weekends in its first week.
    As for Spiderman 3, that film barely did double its opening weekend and I don’t know one person who didn’t hate it – it had poisonous word of mouth and pretty lousy reviews.
    This is clearly not the case with Iron Man – as I have stated many times before, this film will probably have a trajectory similar to 300 or Batman Begins, just under 3 times opening. My prediction at this point is $280 million.

  16. anghus says:

    Dave, i feel ya.
    i used to be a box office guy, loved to talk about it, loved to shoot the shit about what was going to do what, but it’s become an armchair science.
    you’re forced to listen to people who tell you that a number is ‘good’ or ‘bad’.
    88 million is ‘bad’ but 98 is ‘good’, all interpretations from people who probably have jack and shit to do with the entertainment industry.
    unless you’re an exec at paramount, a producer, and accountant, or a lawyer, the box office seems irrelevant. It was fun to analyze and debate for awhile, but like all things American, it has become about being ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ whether the truth supports it or not.

  17. Cadavra says:

    “The Director of ZATHURA” is also “The Director of ELF.” Whatever you think of the latter, it did end up grossing triple what the most generous predictions had been (and, regrettably, made a movie star of Will “Look At Me! I’m Loud And Wacky!” Ferrell).

  18. doug r says:

    Yeah, I never understood the hatin’ either. Elf took the typical insipid Xmas movie and actually entertained me with a perfect tone.
    Zathura was WAY better than Jumanji with just the right amount of practical effects. Love those Henson shop monsters!

  19. LexG says:


  20. jeffmcm says:

    ^^^_That’s_ where you get too creepy for me.

  21. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Par estimated $102M+ for the weekend. The actual is $98.6+, so Mr. Klady’s estimate was spot-on.
    You can also argue that kids bought tickets for “Iron Man” and sneaked into R-rated films. When I saw “88 Minutes” on Saturday night (megaplex, national chain) at least half the audience was unaccompanied minors.

  22. jeffmcm says:

    Huh? The kidz are done with Iron Man and all into a second-rate Al Pacino vehicle?

  23. Chucky in Jersey says:

    It’s called hopping auditoriums, jeffmcm. Geeks and teens love to brag about it but it puts the theater at risk of getting shut down.
    When I saw “Bowling for Columbine” — at the Loews (now Regal) E-Walk in Times Square — the ushers were checking tickets at the door. That was because “Jackass” was in the adjacent hall.

  24. jeffmcm says:

    Sure, but your initial statement was that teens bought tickets for Iron Man but saw R-rated movies _instead_, not in addition, thus inflating the Iron Man gross beyond what it should have been. Which is, on its face, absurd.
    Maybe that’s not what you meant.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4