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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady

More to say?
Sandler’s second Zohan weekend was a steep drop in his history. My sense is that the movie is a tweener. Sony did a fine job of launching the film, but while this Sandler movie would likely be pleasing to a wider-than-usual demographic, it’s not quite well enough made to be a crossover film for Sandler. It’s a small shame, since a director one step up on the skill scale could have taken this material to a level that would have made it even more intriguing. But for the Sandler base, it’s got a lot of good silly, but perhaps they were all at The Incredible Hulk or The Happening this weekend… or perhaps they find sex with women over 60 or political subtext or the overall message of acceptance unappealing.
Fox (and Len) estimated the The Happening number to just over the Unbreakable number. Who knows whether that will hold tomorrow? If it does, it will be his third best opening and either his third or fourth best grosser in his six-film primary career. (I really don’t think Wide Awake is relevant, unless you are talking about his ouerve.)
The Incredible Hulk looks like it will be about 13% behind Hulk. It

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59 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. Bennett says:

    I am happy that David pointed out the obvious point that if 5 years later…with an increase in ticket prices…the new Hulk does less opening weekend that the old one then it is not a success. Maybe it will do a little better than the last one based on word of mouth….but I think that Marvel may have hedged their bets by spending 150 million, but at the same time it will be losing some profits because of it…I think that marvel needs to step back and realize that if they go forward with another hulk(I dunno maybe in five years or so)..they need to cap their investment at 70-90 million……With the right script and limited budget a Hulk can be financially successful…….maybe they should have waited for Christmas….It seems to lack a I am Legend…King Kong flick…The Spirit is niche…Harry Potter and Bond are November flicks….Maybe Marvel could have tested the longer Norton version of Hulk….I wonder how much money Marvel could have saved if they did some script work BEFORE they started to film…..
    Hopefully, Marvel can keep the same quality….I am hoping for a kick ass Thor movie….while limiting their financial risk……and Dammit keep Faverau for Iron Man 2: The Quest for a bigger role for Terrance Howard…aka the quest for more loot…

  2. Citizen R says:

    If The Happening has legs equal to those of The Village it’ll end up at about $68 million domestic. That seems a likely scenario to me given the low Cinemascore. Mid-70s is probably its upper range. Still, this is a win for Shyamalan given the expectations. He now has an opportunity with The Last Airbender to get out of the box he’s in and show that he can do something different.

    The Incredible Hulk will likely end up at around $135-145 million. To quote Last Action Hero, ‘No sequel for you.’ Marvel Studios is going to be assuming a hell of a lot of risk by releasing two self-financed big budget films per year (none in 2009, though), not all of which are as saleable as Iron Man. The majors spread their risk across bigger film slates, but concentrating risk in just two $100 million plus films a year is a scary notion.

  3. IOIOIOI says:

    Marvel has to have something come out in 2009. I would imagine it would be the Ant-Man movie because the AVENGERS movie needs it’s Hank Pym.
    However, the HULK, will have a sequel. He already had one sequel based off of sorry American box office and rather nice overseas. So this time HULK will return in an even more COMIC BOOKY (once you have the Leader… it’s only going to get sillier) film, that could use a more stylized look. There are places to go with the HULK. If Marvel and Universal want to go there.

  4. marychan says:

    M. Night Shyamalan will share 50% profit of THE HAPPENING…..

  5. Aris P says:

    What’s the tracking on Get Smart showing for the weekend money-wise? I just don’t see how it’ll do any business.

  6. David Poland says:

    There is money in The Hulk… but the budget needs to be lower.
    I know many of you still want to beat on me about Iron Man, but I maintain… it’s gross is a fluke. I have no question that the sequel – whoever directs it – will have a slightly bigger opening than this one and do over $220 million. People who went to this one in its first weeks will go to the next one for sure.
    Pretty much anything Marvel can do for $100 million or less is a winner with a decent cast. Matt Damon as Captain America. Silver Surfer vs Hulk. Sub-Mariner (has to be Leo). SHIELD. She-Hulk. Avengers. Even frickin’ Dr. Strange.
    And let’s see the motion capture version of one of these books!
    And WB should be doing this with DC too. Flash could be the good version of Jumper. Green Lantern could be great fun. Aquaman, obviously. Hard to imagine Hawkman getting made without Will Ferrell though.
    The $100 million superhero movie is the new DVD.

  7. movieman says:

    Anybody want to place a bet on which comedy is going to come out on top in next weekend’s showdown?
    They both look like losers to me, but Myers’ p.r. campaign has been frigging relentless. And I have it on good authority that 10-16 year-old-boys really want to see this thing. Go figure.

  8. MDOC says:

    Is it a given that Norton is out for another Hulk? I assume he would have to be the first to go to shave 50 million off the budget. Can you make a sequel for 50 million less than the first and provide enough spectacle?

  9. ployp says:

    What’s the deal with Edward Norton? Is it true that he’s refusing to do publicity for Hulk?

  10. Nicol D says:

    “Even frickin’ Dr. Strange.”
    Jim Caviezel as Dr. Strange. He is the right age and has the right lanky, intense look. This could be a character that is kinda B-list that really allows a director to get funky with visuals.
    I love Dr. Strange but need to erase the Peter Hooten TV movie from my brain.
    Captain American will be the one that really tells us if Marvel has the production goods. He is in many ways as much a flagship hero as Spiderman. I have no idea who could play him but think Damon is not quite there. Neither is the Fool’s Gold guy.
    …is Reb Brown still available?

  11. mutinyco says:

    Plastic Man!

  12. lazarus says:

    Is Indy IV passing Iron Man a foregone conclusion? At this point the latter has about $25 million dollars more, and Indy only made $8 more this weekend. Assuming they drop at similar rates, it might take a while to close that gap.
    It would be a pretty big deal for Iron Man to win that battle, no?

  13. IOIOIOI says:

    Heat, really man, that’s a funny damn post. Fortunately for Marvel, they really do not need to make a Sub Mariner movie. They simply need to focus on the Avengers over the next few years. If they work on it. If they really put some time and do not penny-pinch. They will have enough money by the 2012 to make every random ass character film that they want. Right now… they have to find their Cap. If they could do it by Comic-Con, that would be a good thing.

  14. tjfar67 says:

    Indiana Jones the IV is at $602 million world wide. Iron Man is at $544 million. I don’t think either of them are hurting each other. At this point, most of the Indiana Jones money is going to the ‘talent’ and not the studio.

  15. Citizen R says:

    The Hollywood Reporter has the updated international numbers: Indy IV is up to $632.8 million worldwide, having brought in another $18.5 million international. Iron Man isn’t mentioned in the update, but its foreign run is almost done (it grossed $3 million international last weekend and it doesn’t have any major territories where it’s yet to be released).

    The Happening made $32 million international in a wide rollout in 88 territories. The Incredible Hulk made $31 million in 38 territories.

  16. Cadavra says:

    Oh, David. Not even Hawks or Cukor or Wilder could take ZOHAN to a “more intriguing level.” It’s two hours of big-dick gags and fucking-old-ladies gags and tired hairdresser gags and “zany” ethnic stereotype gags and…oh, why bother? Friday, Myers takes over covering this same old exhausted ground; I counted at least four penis gags just in the trailer–can’t these guys come up with anything else? Hell, at this point I’d even welcome a goddamn pie in someone’s face.

  17. Jerry Colvin says:

    The Incredible Hulk was slightly less boring than The Hulk, but not necessarily better. Cheesy, a cast of total has-beens including an over-the-top Tim Blake Nelson, 555 phone numbers, and Tony Stark appearing on screen for fewer seconds than he appeared in a recent TV ad. This movie was a waste. Daredevil was better. And Captain America is the remaining Marvel movie that must be made.

  18. IOIOIOI says:

    Thor must be made as well. Thor also apparently has the most kick ass script of any comic book film ever. So here’s to Thor being made with the quickness.

  19. Paulseta says:

    David, Iron Man’s gross was not a “fluke”. The reality is that your average person wanted to go and see it…
    I know this because I talk to ordinary people (outside of the US for the most part, but you know…) and ordinary people tell you everything you need to know about what is going to work and what isn’t.
    Not what is “tracking” and not what particular demo something is going to play to.
    Not people who would even go to a test screening… or know what that is. Not people who fill out a card, and not people who read this sort of blog (I know, I like it…)
    You want to know who let’s you know how a film is going to do, especially on an opening weekend? Standard office workers in white collar jobs, of median cultural interest, and of median income.
    That was how I knew The Happening would do 30 million or so on the opening weekend (check my post of a few days ago, I made this bet and got it almost dead-on).
    The older I get, the more I realise that the old “nobody knows anything” gets more and more true… especially since in the last good few years I’ve met more than my share of people involved at a pretty high level in the industry, and realised just what kind of an insulated, self-delusional working environment the movie business can be.
    Which reminds me, just wait ’till “Australia” comes out… that’s going to be final evidence (as if any were needed) that Nicole Kidman is absolute box office poison.

  20. Roman says:

    “David, Iron Man’s gross was not a “fluke”. The reality is that your average person wanted to go and see it… ”
    No, I’m with David on this one. As I’ve said before, Iron Man had absolutely no business making this much money. It’s obscene really. And there are a couple of things that contributed to it and I can even guess what some them are. The timing was right, in this same vein that the timing was right for the first Narnia movie.
    And when I say this was a “fluke”, what I mean is that the sequel won’t make as much money (see Narnia again), and this is something Marvel might already realize. This is still a profitable franchise, to be sure, but a goldmine this isn’t. And part of this has to do with who’s playing Tony Stark. I don’t think public at large cares for Robert Downey Jr. This could have been John Cusack (perhaps an unfair statement to both).
    “I know this because I talk to ordinary people (outside of the US for the most part, but you know…) and ordinary people tell you everything you need to know about what is going to work and what isn’t.”
    And this is where you get shallow. I don’t believe you can tell a difference between a $200 million and $300 millon dollar hit, just by taking to a group of people, no matter how excited, especially outside of the US. And let’s face it, Iron Man didn’t perform that much better than outside of US than most other superhero flicks.
    “Which reminds me, just wait ’till “Australia” comes out… that’s going to be final evidence (as if any were needed) that Nicole Kidman is absolute box office poison.”
    I think we both know that your prediction has nothing to do with Kidman but rather the nature of the movie itself. Some projects, well, even Will Smith couldn’t sell. And I think “Australia” could do “Attonement”-like numbers, actually. It depends.

  21. ployp says:

    I’m eagerly awaiting Australia. I like all three of Luhrmann’s films. I don’t care much for either leads.

  22. Wait, why are we back to the tired old Nicole Kidman is box office poison thing again? Christ. The Golden Compass made over $300mil internationally. It’s hardly Kidman’s fault that people would rather see shit like What Happens in Vegas.
    Wasn’t Brad Pitt box office poison for a while? Hell, wasn’t Katherine Hepburn? etc.
    Nevertheless, I’d rather a Nicole Kidman who’s box office poison yet makes movies like Birth and Australia (I imagine it’ll be hard for me to not like) than a Nicole Kidman who’s not, yet makes Adam Sandler-styled movies.
    /Nicole Kidman fandom.
    Sex and the City will pass The Devil Wears prada by the start of the weekend, can it get to $140mil?

  23. Rothchild says:

    Kidman looks like a scary robot after her recent plastic surgery. I used to love her and now she just creeps me out.
    And Roman, poor Roman, thinking Downey Jr. isn’t a major star now is like thinking the world is flat. Iron Man was huge and the start of a mega franchise because the lead character is fun, interesting, and the performance is unlike any other action hero out there. It’s the Jack Sparrow factor. Downey Jr. is so goddamn good that people forgive the sort of clunky and played out origin structure of the movie.
    At this rate, if Kiss Kiss Bang Bang came out this fall, it would make 80 to 100 million. It’s hilarious that Warners spent 45 cents marketing that movie at the time because “no one goes to see Robert Downey Jr. pictures.” If I brought a script to any studio tomorrow with him attached I’d go home with a gigantic payday. That says everything.

  24. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
    Yawn. Let me know when ya got something new to say.

  25. scooterzz says:

    kam’s so cute when he gets pissed off…..

  26. Bartholomew Richards says:

    Was it just me or was it absolutely ridiculous how obvious it was that the Hulk was filmed in Toronto? Anyone who takes the Toronto tour knows that Zanzibar and Sam the Record Man are on Yonge Street. The Apollo theatre set up down the road doesn’t do much to convince me otherwise.
    Maybe my opinion is just swayed because all the campus scenes were filmed on U of T, where I attend, but the downtown stuff is just obvious.

  27. Bartholomew Richards says:

    Also, having Tim Blake Nelson play the Leader in any sequels is just an awful, awful idea.

  28. Scoot, I’m cute when I do a lot of things: Yawn, watch Sister Act, cook bacon and eggs, get confused, sing along to “Echo Beach”, decide what colour towel to use that morning…
    All part of my wicked charm doncha know.

  29. Martin S says:

    Instead of dealing in IO’s fantasies, here’s a little reality.
    There will be no Hulk sequel. Marvel secured it’s initial bank loan to make Inc. Hulk – before IM was available – because they reaped huge ancillary profits off the toy line. Hulk Hands were the #1 toy in ’03, and when you own Toy Biz, that’s a nice profit, especially when you get small percentages from theatrical. Didn’t anyone else notice the political shit they got for making a violent PG-13 film that has sooo many tie-ins for 4+ up kids? BK toys, for that?
    Also, Norton signed a one-pic deal, and you can guarantee he’s done. Letterier has no sequel contract, and neither does Tyler, IIRC. Only Roth and maybe Hurt from the principals, but that might have something to do with Cap. It ain’t hapennin, no matter what Hurd says. They wanted to see, to believe, that the audience would show for an action Hulk film and it underperformed by about 10-15M. No interest from the college crowd who were the high schoolers for Ang’s Hulk. As for the budget, it was 125M but became 150M in post.
    As for ’09, there’s no Marvel fincanced project because they will have Wolverine and Punisher. Why pay out when you can make something for nothing? Fu* king Ant-Man is not a priority which is why it’s not even on the slate.
    And the secondary characters set-up at other studios are in stall mode after IM. As Murphy pointed out, Marvel makes little off of the FOX/Sony deals, which is why they talk very little of those productions during conference calls. Namor has the best chance if it’s at Paramount. If it’s Universal, then less. It’s all about the contracts at this point. If they can hamstring some of these pics so the rights revert back, they most likely will. That’s pretty much how they got IM out of New Line, IIRC. And The Rock is Namor unless he makes Shazam.
    Poland’s right to say the 100M superhero film is the new DVD, but Marvel cannot make Thor and probably Cap for less then 150M. They are in a good spot because more people are trying to follow their business model now. Once that trend ends, they will either sell or merge.

  30. Direwolf says:

    DP, Panda is matching Cars almost exactly on a day-to-day basis. IT is almost creepy how close they match. Anyhow, Cars made it to $245 million in North America I think. Granted, Cars had two months of summer to hang on but I got to think that Panda gets at least between Madagascar and Cars to at least $225. Also, Panda is doing very well abroad where it has opened, easily beating Ratatouille. Looks like th global gross on Panda could be north of $600 million.
    A question…any idea on merchandising and video games on Panda? When I saw it I thought it was practically made with merchandising in mind.
    Disclosure: I own Dreamworks Animation stock on the basis that Panda’s ultimate profits will comfortably exceed current Wall Street estimates.

  31. IOIOIOI says:

    Martin: why are you not taking care of your clients? Is your assistant taking care of them for you? Seriously man… it’s not a fantasy. It’s the HULK.
    There are a countless ways to do a HULK film. Hell. If you read the Ultimates. You may know what the plot of the first Avengers film will be. So please do not act as if this is end of the HULK. When people unlike you who pay attention to comic continuity (yes that’s important agent boy), know the HULK can be used again in another movie.
    Hell… you can have a sequel to this movie without Norton because you can simply have the HULK HULKED OUT for an entire film. See… it’s always the non-creative types that like saying a story’s over. When it’s not over… yet.
    You got a call on line 2. Pick it up already.

  32. ThriceDamned says:

    Dire: Panda is going to have to do better than slightly north of 600m worldwide to beat Ratatouille, since Ratatouille ended up at 621m worldwide.
    I’m confident that Wall-E will end up as the second biggest Pixar film worldwide after Nemo and the biggest animated title of the year (if not the biggest overall). I’m predicting at least 700m for it.

  33. Roman says:

    “Iron Man was huge and the start of a mega franchise because the lead character is fun, interesting, and the performance is unlike any other action hero out there. It’s the Jack Sparrow factor. Downey Jr. is so goddamn good that people forgive the sort of clunky and played out origin structure of the movie.
    At this rate, if Kiss Kiss Bang Bang came out this fall, it would make 80 to 100 million. It’s hilarious that Warners spent 45 cents marketing that movie at the time because “no one goes to see Robert Downey Jr. pictures.” If I brought a script to any studio tomorrow with him attached I’d go home with a gigantic payday. That says everything.”
    100% Bull. Downey is a side effect of Iron Man’s success, not the priamry reason behind it. And the reason this was the success for him, the kind that no other picture in his multiple decade career wasn’t is because, this was the right kind of match for the right kind of character. But there’s more to it, a lot more.
    And I hate to break this to you, but “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang” has none of it. Don’t think that because of just one picture people are going to embrace every project that he’s in, when they idnored most of his output for decades.
    This is like saying that “The Singing Detective” would have been as big as “Iron Man” if they advertised the drunk aspect better. Give me a break.
    Also, watch you language.

  34. Rothchild says:

    KKBB is the best movie of his career. Why would you compare it to a small and interesting failure like The Singing Detective? I’m starting to think you have terrible taste.

  35. Rothchild says:

    People didn’t go to see Pirates opening weekend because of Depp, he wasn’t that kind of box office draw, but they keep back and told their friends it kicked ass because of him. This is the exact same thing.

  36. Rothchild says:

    “came back” not “keep back”

  37. Random thoughts…
    On one hand, of course a certain actor is only worthwhile in a certain project. That is of course often the downfall of many an up-and-comer (if Hugh Jackman wants $20 million for Wolverine, so be it… but if he wants $20 million for, hypothetically, The Prestige, he’s an idiot).
    Downey Jr was a perfect match for Tony Stark. He gets all of the credit in the world for making that movie as good as it was (I didn’t like it all that much, but I digress) and he does get a small amount of credit for the opening weekend too (my 60 year-old mother liked Downey Jr enough to see Iron Man just after it came out). And he’s worth whatever he can muster to appear in the sequel.
    However, he’s not worth much more than a couple million at most for anything else he does, even if it’s a more mainstream project. But he is worth a solid $2-3 million in a starring or supporting role in a mainstream picture. He’s the kind of actor that makes his movies a little better, so he should get a little more money for that.
    On the other hand, the most obvious precedent for this was Johnny Depp’s work in Pirates 1. He was a much loved 80s cult actor who eventually found a (non-Burton) mainstream project that he could play around with.
    Like Iron Man, Depp’s work made the film seem much better than it was otherwise (although I contend that Pirates 1 had much more to offer than just Depp, especially when compared to the Downey-monopolized Iron Man). And like Depp’s breakout, this gives him a little wiggle-room in regards to bankability provided he chooses mainstream projects. I think we can both agree that The Secret Window would not have made $17 million on its opening weekend had it come out in April of 2003, as opposed to April, 2004.
    Now of course, I have always felt that Kiss Kiss Bang Bang would have been a solid low-level mainstream hit had it been advertised and released as a mainstream action-comedy made by the creator of Lethal Weapon and starring two well-liked actors from the 80s (Downey and Kilmer). It wouldn’t have made $100 million, but $30 million would have been possible.

  38. Rothchild says:

    Also, sometimes you can build up interest by making a really bizarre and unexpected casting choice. Nicolas Cage in The Rock. Depp in Pirates. Travolta in Broken Arrow. Damon in The Bourne Identity. It can also blow up in your face like the pairing of Chris Rock and Anthony Hopkins in Bad Company.

  39. Rothchild says:

    Forgot to add Will Smith and Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys. The original casting of John Lovitz and Dana Carvey would have been a bigger disaster than Bad Company.

  40. Roman says:

    “KKBB is the best movie of his career. Why would you compare it to a small and interesting failure like The Singing Detective? I’m starting to think you have terrible taste.”
    I think you missed the point there. I didn’t compare it to anything, not in terms of quality anyway.
    You are free to think whatever you want of course.

  41. Citizen R says:

    Off topic: Terrible news – Stan Winston has died at 62 of cancer. Condolences to his family.

  42. IOIOIOI says:

    Motherfucker. Fucking bullshit cancer. Here’s to Stan Winston. A man who made the movies better. Three huzzahs for him. Huzzah. Huzzah. Huzzah.

  43. Direwolf says:

    Thrice Damned: I think Panda has a shot at a higher global gross than the Rat. It won;t do the huge biz in France but looking at the very limited opening it is already outgrossing the Rat in Russia and is killing it in South Korea. Those are both decent size markets. We’ll see but but there is no doubt this film is good news for Dreamworks Animation. It is going to be more profitable that Wall Street expects and it establishes another franchise to sequel which raises the predictability and base level of profits for the company.

  44. Geoff says:

    Rothchild, you make a great point about clever casting – audiences will often turn out for a big action picture, when there’s an unexpected name above the title. This actually happened twice with Keanu Reeves with Speed in ’94 and Matrix in ’99 (shows how short the public’s memory really is) – audiences were so tickled that Reeves was actually watchable and how he carried both stories.
    I think that Downey’s rise with Iron Man is very comparable to Depp after Pirates. Just as Once Upon a Time In Mexico overperformed later that summer with Depp hyped up as second billing, so probably will Tropic Thunder in August – that will be the first test, though a post-Panda Jack Black and Ben Stiller give him some insurance.
    The comparison isn’t perfect, though – Depp did actually have his share of hits before Pirates like Edward Scissorhands and Donnie Brasco, and Sleepy Hollow was actually a blockbuster. Honestly, how long had it been since Downey was in a hit? MAYBE U.S. Marshalls in ’99 and on T.V. Ally McBeal? It really is a pretty Travolta-like comeback story, very remarkable.
    This is really shaping up to be a record summer, something for every one. I cannot honestly predict which film is going to be number one – Indy, Iron Man, or Wall E. Expectations for Dark Knight are getting pretty out of hand from a lot of people, but I think there’s a ceiling for that film and trust me, Mama Mia is going to hurt it a bit on opening weekend.

  45. Rothchild says:

    Wall-E is going to be a phenomenon. Just wait. It’s going to make more than Finding Nemo.

  46. Hallick says:

    “This actually happened twice with Keanu Reeves with Speed in ’94 and Matrix in ’99 (shows how short the public’s memory really is) – audiences were so tickled that Reeves was actually watchable and how he carried both stories.”
    As far as The Matrix goes, I don’t remember the world feeling the joy of discovery there that it felt with Depp’s and Downey’s performances. Putting Keanu Reeves in the lead didn’t come close to matching the clever casting bar. He’d already done action in Point Break and Speed; and sci-fi in Johnny Mnemonic. Compared to Star Wars, he was the Mark Hamill, not the Harrison Ford.

  47. Geoff says:

    Halick – people forget that expectations are not high for The Matrix. The film had been delayed twice, actualy bumped from its original Summer 2008 release date. Fishburne and Reeves had a series of flops – there was absolutely ZERO expectation for Reeve and people had forgetten how appealing he could be, probably not so much since Speed. It was pretty much a comeback for him – he didn’t get rave reviews or anything, but I remember seeing the film a few times in theaters and the audience really seemed to respond to him. The role was a good match for his wide-eyed style of acting, “I know Kung Fu….”

  48. jeffmcm says:

    Once the trailer was out, I seem to recall the expectations were pretty high.

  49. martin says:

    The bullet-time Superbowl trailer certainly got my expectations up, and was likely responsible for much of the $28 mill opening weekend. The bigger surpise on the film was that it got such good word of mouth and kept making money in theaters for awhile. The sci-fi action film tends to burn out very quickly. Just look at the sequels. Matrix was kind of a rare event for the type of film it was, r-rated computer hacker fantasy with eastern philosophy. An interesting mix of elements that could have either crashed and burned or become a classic. What that movie did right is very hard to repeat or predict, and we won’t see something like it anytime soon. One of a handful of movies in the 90s that changed the direction of cinema, I’d put it right next to Pulp Fiction.

  50. As much as I agree Iron Man will help Tropic Thunder, I completely disagree that Kung-Fu Panda will help Tropic Thunder. Nobody’s gonna go see that because Jack Black – who’s had his niche for a while now – voiced a panda in a kid’s flick.

  51. Roman says:

    Black helped sell Nacho Libre so I think that the fact that he’s in a cast will also help this flick somewhat.

  52. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Don’t be surprised if “Tropic Thunder” is a hit.
    Shoot-’em-up war movie with a good release date and … best of all … no name-checking!

  53. Rothchild says:

    Roman, what in the sweet blue fuck does Nacho Libre have to do with Tropic Thunder? Is it because they’re both Paramount releases? That’s like saying The Pacifier is going to help Babylon A.D.

  54. LexG says:

    Heh, I caught that BABYLON AD trailer before THE HAPPENING and it FUCKING OWNED.
    I CANNOT WAIT. It looks so ridiculous and 2001 Diesel-tastic.
    But, seriously, after eight years and a zillion uses all across trailerdom and TV spots, can they stop with the Requiem For a Dream music? It’s an awesome soundtrack, sure, but it’s making me pine for the days when the COME SEE THE PARADISE and DRAGONHEART scores were attached TO EVERY FUCKING TRAILER EVER.

  55. LexG says:

    Damn, I got so excited about posting a Babylon non sequitor that I totally missed Chucky’s latest FUCKING INSANITY.
    Cuz, yeah, TROPIC THUNDER is TOTALLY a shoot-em-up war movie.

  56. jeffmcm says:

    They’re not name-checking “From the director of The Cable Guy”? How bizarre.

  57. yancyskancy says:

    Yeah, Tropic Thunder seemed like a real flop in the making until I realized they weren’t name-checking. I just hope Paramount doesn’t blow it at the last minute by adding “…and Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr.” to the ads. 🙂

  58. The Big Perm says:

    Robert Downey Jr. from Iron Man!
    Don’t mention that to anyone because then they’ll know an actor who was in a movie they liked is in another movie and may possibly pique their interest!!!

  59. Martin S says:

    Iron Man crossed 300 ysterday.
    But, more interesting, the Ang Hulk/Inc. Hulk breakdown from B.O Mojo
    So, when you factor in the aforementioned ticket inflation, you have less attendance for Inc. Hulk than Ang’s – and that is somehow going to merit a sequel. Sure.
    I found this list pretty damn cool. It really cements how much of a bust Ang’s Hulk was.
    No movie in that list had anywhere near the opening Ang-Hulk had, making the attendance drop-off that much steeper.
    Looking at the raw numbers, something is telling me that this was the only way to get ownership back from Hurd and Universal. Because production-wise, to put your entire company on the line as collateral for a revamp/sequel no one was clamoring for, and then have it cost more, makes zero sense. If, in the next several months, I read in passing that the rights have reverted back to Marvel, then I’ll know this was about reclaiming a property they’ve been without for decades. If it doesn’t happen, and they made this for other reasons, then these cats are going to be lucky to make it to 2011.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4