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By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady – 7/12/08

Hellboy II: The Golden Army made a nice step up from the first film, looking towards the mid-30s from the first Hellboy

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40 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady – 7/12/08”

  1. Jeremy Smith says:

    “Axel Foley is back.”
    Anyone want to take bets on a May ’09 return to SNL to help promote NOWHERELAND.

  2. matro says:

    I haven’t seen a single ad for Journey to the Center of the Earth, anywhere. No billboards or TV at all.
    Looks like Meet Dave will likely be the bomb of the summer? Christ is Eddie Murphy ever making some retarded movies these days.

  3. LexG says:

    Well, they could’ve, you know, advertised Meet Dave sometime before the last week and a half.

  4. Wrecktum says:

    …and the star could have done some promotions.

  5. Blackcloud says:

    Said this in another thread but want to repeat it here . . . I had X-Files Redux pegged as the biggest flop of the summer, but Meet Dave may be hard to beat.

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    The surprising thing is, Meet Dave is in some ways even more of a kid movie than Murphy’s Doctor Dolittle films. But I don’t think it was pushed that way. Or if it was, it wasn’t pushed enough that way.

  7. Josh Massey says:

    It appears audiences liked Hancock a lot better than the critics. That number reveals pretty good word of mouth.

  8. Aris P says:

    X-Files as the biggest flop? That makes no sense, considering there was something called The Love Guru, which I knew would take the prize. Speaking of flops — does anyone know what Swing Vote is about? Is that the lamest poster for a movie or what.

  9. IOIOIOI says:

    Aris P: it’s about Costner’s vote being the vote to decide the next president and the ramifications that come of it. It feels like one of those great mid-90s HBO FILMS flicks. Before HBO got to cocky. Thus leading to Showtime taking out it’s figurative schwantz and hitting HBO in the face with it.
    Oh yeah… here’s to HANCOCK and RED! HUZZAH!

  10. NickF says:

    Really good drop for Hancock. People are enjoying it and the odd critical response to it is having no effect.

  11. LYT says:

    I hope Hellboy II continues to do well. Seems like Guillermo’s got some very specific ideas for a third and final chapter…to be made five years from now, after The Hobbit.

  12. counthaku says:

    Matro: Sarcasm re: Journey? Just take a look around the Block at Orange and you’ll see posters everywhere. I’ll admit there haven’t been very many TV ads though- possibly so people don’t realize the quality of the CG (or lack thereof)?
    Kit Kittredge held up well after its less than successful expansion- 12%. Maybe the audience for this movie is a relatively small group that will just go see it whenever they please.

  13. martin says:

    re: Hancock’s moderate b.o. drop. Someone else was gonna say it, so I might as well say it. The 40% or so fri-fri drop is at least partly due to the fact that last Fri was not the first day it came out. TransFormers benefited to the same effect. If it had opened last fri we’d be looking at a 60% or so.
    That said, TF ended up with a shitload of money. And I see Hancock doing $230-250. Perhaps not a franchise maker, but another solid $$ maker that Smith can rest his hat on.

  14. djk813 says:

    Another issue is that last Friday was the 4th of July, so Friday night shows were probably a bit suppressed by people seeing fireworks instead. That at least has something partially to do with the relatively low Friday to Friday drops across the board.

  15. SJRubinstein says:

    For a certain breed of nerd, “X-Files: I Want to Believe” is their “Sex and the City.”
    I am that breed of nerd.
    But I also saw Yaz this past Tuesday at the Orpheum, so it’s not like I have any illusions about said breed of nerd being any kind of majority.

  16. Blackcloud says:

    Wasn’t the first X-Files movie the X-Files SATC? If this were 2003 or even 2004, I’d have a lot more confidence about the new one’s prospects. It’s been six years since the show ended, which strikes me as too late. But the box office may well prove me wrong. It has before.

  17. jeffmcm says:

    Here’s the thing, SATC ended 4 years ago with pretty good ratings, and X Files has been gone for 6 years with sagging ratings and it’s been 10 years since the first movie, so are there still that many of the X Files breed of nerd around these days?
    That Meet Dave figure is pretty amazing, though.

  18. jasonbruen says:

    RE: little or no adds for journey or meet dave… there were plenty of adds, on Nickleodian. These were not going to be such big movies that little advertising and solely on Nick were going to draw big numbers, they needed more.

  19. matro says:

    counthaku: Nope, no sarcasm. My commute is dominated by a couple of Meet Dave billboards on Grand Ave in Santa Ana. Smart move: a movie billboard in the middle of an industrial district.
    But nope, no Journey ads at all that I’ve seen. Then again, I mostly stick to the Tustin District. Don’t think I’ve ever been to the Block.

  20. Roman says:

    And now we know the real reason why Eddie Murphy want’s to retire (even though it was all just a lie).
    Sure, he’ll do Baverly Hills Cop 4.

  21. Geoff says:

    Wow, Fox is having a pretty lousy summer – the only real hit they have had is What Happens in Vegas. Looks like they could go the whole season without a $100 mnillion hit – they better get spending a bit more on X Files, now.
    And this weekend, along with the whole summer, shows that for the right price, there is no better studio at starting and maintaining franchises than Universal – expect another Hellboy sequel, more Wanted movies, and I have a feeling they will properly re-launch the new Mummy movie. Think of this decade for them: Fast and the Furious, Bourne, American Pie (still raking in dough from what, the 10th DTV sequel from that movie?), they do it the best. I know, I know….Hulk, but still they gave it a good shot and honestly, it just should not have cost that much.
    Wall-E’s drops have been a bit troubling – it’s going to be a tough haul to break %250 million, when I had thought it had a real shot at $300 million, just a few weeks ago. I have a feeling that second half SPOILER ALERT -(with the overweight humans of the future) is hurting word of mouth. There was early E.T.-talk with this movie, but Spielberg really never had the balls to be so biting in his satire, even with his subtle jabs at suburban life. I still love the movie and it’s the first movie I took my three year old to – she ate it up and loved Wall-E and Eve.
    Dark Knight projections are getting ridiculous – people really think this is going to out-open Spiderman???? The last one did barely $50 million – I think there is now little chance that the box office pundits won’t be throwing around the “disappointment” words around, come the morning of July 21.
    I mean, if the film opens to double it’s predecessor to $100 million, it will not meet most people’s expectations. I’m sure Dave agrees – box office expectations are getting out of whack when a film HAS to open $100 million.

  22. IOIOIOI says:

    This might cause Eddie to have a resurgence. Heck, it could wake him up from his decade long suck-coma, and get Eddie into making interesting films again. So it comes down to Axel Foley having to bail Eddie’s career out of the shitter. Thank goodness.
    Again, downplaying X-Files, is like downplaying the Bat. You really have to not be paying attention to fandom on the net to hold such a dim view of I WANT TO BELIEVE’s earning potential. It’s the X-Files. Do you people ever read anything about DVD sales? Good grief.
    So expect X-Files to be a solid-earning little flick. I doubt it cost that much and it can do overseas business. This all means that the X-Files will make some sheckles at the end of the month.

  23. IOIOIOI says:

    Geoff: I have been stating this to you time and time again, but you should stop underselling the Bat. This is the flick of the Summer for a lot of people. So try not to look shocked next weekend.

  24. Geoff says:

    IOIOIOI, I’m not disputing what you are saying – it’s certainly the movie of the summer for ME and many of my friends. I’ve been looking forward to this for two years.
    But to put this on the same commercial playing field with Spiderman and Pirates is just not very fair – the franchise is just geared towards that mass of an audience and good thing for that!
    Look, I’ve been wrong before – Iron Man, Transformers – but both of those films hit all the right audiences in all the right ways. They did not have scenes depicting…..SPOILER ALERT…..a major character having half of his face burned off. I hope I’m wrong – I would love to see the film clean up.

  25. sky_capitan says:

    I saw Hancock friday and Hellboy2 today.
    I was psyched for Hancock then saw some terrible reviews of it and went in expecting it to be terrible (I used $8 “movie cash” included with the MIB blu-ray so it was worth the risk paying only $3.50 cash to see it). But I didn’t think it was that bad of a movie. Not great but not bad. Great special fx. It had a twist I didn’t expect too. And Charlize Theron.
    Hellboy2 was as good as I thought it’d be. Can’t smile without Hellboy. And SELMA BLAIR.
    The trailer for “Quarantine” before the feature looks pretty damn good.
    As for X-Files movie? Hmmm. I have the entire DVD series set… but do I have much interest seeing a new X-Files movie in 2008? Not really. As I recall, the last movie was a bridge to the next season, so I had to see it.
    Maybe the new one will do well though, I have no idea.

  26. ployp says:

    Re: The X-Files
    I am an X-Files die-hard fan and I’ve been looking forward to the new film since it was announced. I hope it’ll do well. Anyhow, it only cost $30-35 million.

  27. I replied to this earlier, but it appears that it didn’t go through? Oh well.
    What I said was that I actually think the longer gap will help X-Files, because it’s made the less die hard fans forget those last couple of seasons. And seeing Duchovny and Anderson together again is actually really nice. I don’t see how it’ll be a big hit though. A nice sub-$100mil though would be great.
    IO, unlike you it seems not everybody who comes here spends their entire life on the internet on websites gathering info just to win debates about which movies will make the most money so don’t go off at people for “not be paying attention to fandom on the net to hold such a dim view of I WANT TO BELIEVE’s earning potential.”

  28. IOIOIOI says:

    Camel: they are arguments. Unless we are involved in the scientific community. Well… it’s not about winning them. Seriously, you folks are a hoot. Your comebacks alone could be made into a book titled: “Comebacks To Use When You Really Do Not Want to Put a Person In Their Place.”
    Again Camel, it’s called PAYING ATTENTION. If you simply pay attention to the pop culture world. You might notice that the X-Files is still a beloved property. Whose fans appreciate Robert Patrick but love forgetting he was ever part of the show. It also works with the DVDS.
    You folks ever hear of a SLIMSET? You know why they put out slimsets? They do it with properties that sell, continue to sell, and will sell more if they are in a smaller case. The X FILES pretty much set up the whole SLIMCASE DEAL. The DVD sales and along with season eight could be a reason BUFFY might have a movie in the future. Why? THIS SHIT SELLS.
    So all I ask of you nice and gentle souls, is to pay attention to this world around. It’s pop-culture. It’s easy to follow. If you just open your eyes and get the fuck out of your own way.

  29. IOIOIOI says:

    There seems to be a tendency here lately, of me following one post with a double-post to repond to Geoff. Let’s continue that tradition… RIGHT NOW!
    Geoff: Pirates and Spidey are no different than the Bat. The kids love the Bat. The kids love Pirates and Spidey. So it makes sense that the kids will go and see this flick. It’s not like this is 19 years ago with the Batman 89. This is a new day. Kids have seen worse in movies GEARED TOWARDS THEM!
    So it’s possible that the Bat could be the one to take it all down next weekend. I will simply not be shocked if this movie does what it’s supposed to do: that’s kick ass, rock minds, and make a boatload of money for Warners. Warner Brothers: we make tentpole movies. Those other kinds of movies scare us, drive us to loose women and drinking, and moments of rage. THAT’S ALL FOLKS!

  30. hepwa says:

    I’m starting to wonder if people can even think for themselves nowadays or if we’re just so programmed to respond to what we’ve already seen. Last night, I saw “Hancock” in a packed house theatre in Burnaby, B.C. and the biggest laugh of the night came when he throws the whale and it hits the sailboat. Have we not seen that eight million times in the trailer? Anyway, its been on my mind. By the way, “Hancock” was one of the biggest turds I’ve ever sat through.

  31. IO, who gives the shit about slimcases? Christ. None of the pop culture websites I go to have even mentioned X-Files outside of whenever the trailer/stills were released, let alone any of them giving a rats arse about freakin’ slimcases? What Angelina and Brad named their kids? That’s pop culture. Who Madonna has been accused of having an affair with? That’s pop culture. The weeks new movie releases? That’s pop culture. What studios do to sell more DVDs? That’s not pop culture.

  32. Geoff says:

    IOIOIOIO, I appreciate the double posts, I really do:)
    No doubt, some kids love the Bat and honestly, I caught Dead Man’s Chest on cable, the other night – I was suprised just how dark and grotesque a lot of it really is, especially that stuff on the Flying Dutchman.
    BUT….it’s is in a fantasy element, as were the Lord of the Rings movies. That is just not the case with Dark Knight – I have not seen it, but from the reviews, I can pretty much gathering this film is really more in the vein of Heat and The Untouchables – films I loved, but more adult and not for kids.
    Warners has been making a deliberate attempt to NOT market this thing to kids and why should they, anyway? They got burned 16 years ago for having Happy Meals attached to Batman Returns – all the sexual inneundo, violence against children, blood spurting from people’s noses, etc. – they are NOT doing that again, it killed word of mouth and made them reach out to Joel Schumacher.
    The movie is not being marketed to kids, the story is not aimed at kids – sure some kids will turn out, anyway – but kids are not part of the intended audience for this thing, no doubt.
    That’s why it will be big, even Matrix Reloaded-big (as I mentioned, I am betting those are the numbers Warners is aiming for – opening and total gross), but not on the level of Spiderman. And there is nothing wrong with that at all.

  33. scooterzz says:

    geoff — unlike the idiot poster who shall not be named, i’ve actually seen ‘the dark knight’ (twice) and can say with some authority that you are right on the money…
    if you take away the costumes, ‘tdk’ is a crime film in the classic noir tradition…this is so much more than a ‘comic book movie’…
    kids may ‘love the bat’ but this one ain’t for kids (despite the rantings of those who haven’t even seen it yet)…….

  34. martin says:

    I will probably wait for DVD but it does look like an excellent film. Probably the best since Batman Returns. It could do at much as $250 mill domestically but it does seem too dark and 2-3 quadrant to really be a top-3 box office of the summer. Also Begins made good $$ but was not spectacular even for a Batman movie. But you never know with these things. I was wary about Iron Man but it turns out to be a 4-quadrant blockbuster. Ironically the two opposite sides of the coin, Hancock and TDK will end up with about the same money.

  35. SJRubinstein says:

    Just because it doesn’t look like it’s been said yet, “X-Files: Fight the Future” isn’t “Sex and the City” because it showed up in theaters halfway through the run of the show and contained plot points that carried over to the next season.
    “X-Files: I Want to Believe” IS “Sex and the City” because the show’s been over for awhile, making steady money and earning eyes in syndication and on DVD.
    “Scully – I need you on this with me…”

  36. jeffmcm says:

    Yeah, but X-Files: FTF only made $84million, at the height of the show’s popularity and with tie-in storylines. SATC is at $148m and still climbing.

  37. IOIOIOI says:

    Camel: you being the little fella that you are, you would think that was POP-CULTURE. Nah, it’s gossip. I know the world moves at a different pace down there, but please try to keep up on the words.
    Scoot: you being like Camel… in more ways than one… really needs to understand you have no idea what I have seen or not seen. The fact that someone who post likes you, acts like you, and responds like you. Believes they have the right to refer to me as an idiot. Demonstrates a real grasp of reality you have there, simpleton. Go learn how to type like a real man. Oh I forgot… you gave up being a real man years ago to type like an lolcat. My bad.
    Back to your brother from another mother Camel, DVDs and DVDs sales are a part of the machinery. They help drive certain decisions. Do you really think an X-Files movie got off the ground without the fact that FOX has sold millions of units of those DVDs world-round? HELL NO.
    This show still has a huge fanbase. You would not know where to find it, because like the man you are. You just have to visit Perez Hilton every two minutes. Seriously, to think that you thought gossip… you fucking people…

  38. IOIOIOI says:

    Jeff: WRONG AGAIN! It came out during the downturn and made 84 million 10 years ago. If you extrapolate that… oh fuck it and fuck this place.

  39. scooterzz says:

    you are absolutely right, io….calling you an ‘idiot’ would be a grave disservice to idiots all over the world….my bad….

  40. I hate Perez Hilton. YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT ME!!!!!!!! You don’t know anything about me GOSH!
    wash rinse repeat
    I guess you’re right though. I wouldn’t know where all these X-Files fans are hiding. Oh, wait. I’m one of them. And, oh wait, so is my brother. But I guess we don’t hang out at online fan forums or wherever it is you go so thanks for filling me in on the latest pop culture news.
    X-Files: As big as Jesus!

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon