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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Klady's Weekend Estimates – Spirit of 7/6

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Hancock is Will Smith

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49 Responses to “Klady's Weekend Estimates – Spirit of 7/6”

  1. anghus says:

    I saw Hancock and didn’t think it was bad. The thought that they wanted to turn it into a franchise puzzles me. Sure, Will Smith + Superhero Film would make any Exec think “sequel”, but when you watch the film, does anyone really see a multiple franchise flick?
    Any thoughts on the indies? The Wackness and Tell No One both had 20,000+ per screen averages. What does that mean for them?

  2. Roman says:

    Actually, Steven Spielberg is the biggest movie star in the world (and I’m not just saying this based on his “history”).
    Which brings me to Indy 4 and the unfair decostruction of it’s situation. First of all, the movie is in 7th place after 7 weekends. That’s very good and should better Iron Man’s 8 week top 10 run. Second, it’s been out there for 7 weeks! Instead of concentrating on it “low” performance on 2000 screens I’d concentrate on the speed with which it’s been losing the screens. And then I’d point out that it has a better per screen average than Iron Man on more than twice the screens. And the lowest drops in the top 10 for 2 weeks in a row.
    Bottom line is, when it’s all said and done Indy 4 will have about $4 million on Iron Man. Sure, Marvel could re-release it and give it a bump – but $20 million? No way. Not unless they give it an extended Nick Furry cameo or something. I meant, not unless they WANT Indy 4 in second place for political reasons. Otherwise it could play past September and top Transformers.

  3. Roman says:

    I also don’t entirely understand this rift in your perception of Zohan and Happening.
    “Zohan will be profitable for Sony and Sandler” but the Happening “about $90 short of paying for the marketing?”.
    Sandler has a very unproven track record (that’s his weakness – but it’s mostly due not his own limitation but the faxt that his material sometimes doesn’t translate very well) with overseas grosses so unless he can turn Zohan into a $100+ overseas hit I don’t see it making a lot of money for him or the studio. At least not from it’s theatrical grosses. So, if “The Happening” being a 50% cheaper movie ends up in the same ballpark wolrdwide that means something too.
    I understand that you belive that both movies will pay for themselves or will turn a profit eventually but how you get to that point is a little inconsistent.

  4. Noah says:

    Roman, I’m a Spielberg fan but Indy 4 could have been directed by almost anyone and it would have opened to the same amount (that’s not to say that it would have been better or worse) because it’s a product that’s pre-sold. And plus, Spielberg’s Munich (which I adore) didn’t set the world on fire and if you’re a movie star, you should be able to open up the films that are hard to open like Will Smith did with Pursuit of Happyness (which doubled Spielberg’s Munich gross). I’m not saying I’m happy about this, just that Spielberg is not the bigger “movie star” right now.

  5. Roman says:

    Noah, I understand where you are coming from but I think your argument is wrong on all points.
    First of all, if Indy 4 was indeed pre-sold than it is in no small part due to Spielberg himself. If you think that if someone took over the reigns it would have made quite as much or demonstrating the same kind of legs, you are wrong. Especially on a worldwide market.
    Second, there are sequences in that movie that could have only been directed by Spielberg (but that’s beside the point though I would shrug to think what the movie with that screenplay would have looked like if it was directed by anybody else).
    Third, Spielberg did demostrate his star power by making “Munich” a $130 million grosser. If you think Smith could have sold that kind of material for more you are deceiving yourself. I also think that Spielberg deliberatly undersold his movie (though I wont go into details). If nothing else, it certainly wasn’t sold like feel good flick. It isn’t really fair to bring this one up.
    Yes, Smith is smart, and he picks his projects very carefully but despite what what Happyness might tell you, he does not have the range or worldwide appeal of Spielberg. Not will he have his longevity.
    Lastly, even when Tom Cruise was huge, both Minority Report and (with lesser emphasis) War of the Worlds were sold more as Spielberg movies. And I wouldn’t expect that to change if and when Smith makes “Trial of the Chicago 7”.

  6. Noah says:

    The argument, though, is that Smith is the bigger star right now. Historically, of course, Spielberg has the longer and bigger track record. When I talk about Indy 4 being directed by somebody else, I’m not talking about the quality of the film at all, just what Indy 4 would be as a product. If it still had Harrison Ford in the lead role and say Spielberg stayed on as a producer and Joe Johnston took over as director (as he did on Jurassic Park III), I think it would have OPENED to nearly the same amount. It might not be as good a movie and therefore not have the same legs, but I think the opening would be similar.
    Smith starring in Munich, I don’t know if that would make much sense. But I think that moviegoers, for the most part, care more about what is on screen than who is behind the scenes. Spielberg has been lucky enough to work with Hanks and Ford and Cruise and dinosaurs on multiple occasions and when he didn’t (Munich, AI, Amistad), he delivered box office disappointments.
    And sure, I can accept that Smith might not be the biggest movie star for as long as Spielberg has been the biggest film director, but that’s comparing apples to oranges; acting and directing are two very different games and audiences are more fickle about actors than directors.

  7. Hopscotch says:

    We also have six (count em 6) films in over 3,000 theaters. Which…I know has happened before. But maybe 2 or 3 times in film history. First time was in 2003.
    The #1 comedy this summer is Sex and The City..who saw THAT coming? I don’t think Tropic Thunder or Pineapple Express will get that high. We’ll see.
    Have not seen Hulk, Zohan, Smart, Wanted or Hancock…and I doubt I’ll get around to any of them. I’ve heard nothing but blase to horrible things. Though I saw Wall-E. And I’ll see it again.

  8. Roman says:

    Again, I see your points but totally disagree.
    Firstly, if Indiana Jones was directed by Johnson I wouldn’t be suprised if it was beaten by Mummy 3.
    I travel quite a bit and I can tell you that worldwide Smith isn’t even close to being as recognized as Spielberg. And people do care who’s names is behind the scenes when it comes to someone like him. After making blockbusters for over 30 years his name has become engraved into people’s psyches. His name sells event movies. And his power allows for him to pick money making projects if he is so inclined. Smith doesn’t have a quarter of that power.
    However, when I spoke of longevity I meant what would happen in ten years.
    I also didn’t imply that Smith could have starred in Munich. I was talking about a similar quite of material more fit for him.
    I dunno. We’ll see who’s right in the next few years.
    P.S. Thanks to Japan A.I. was a minor hit actually.

  9. jeffmcm says:

    “…$82.5 million in rentals or about $20 million more than the cost of the movie

  10. Noah says:

    Well, I sure as hell wouldn’t see Indy 4 direction by anyone other than Spielberg!
    Anyway, I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one Roman. I think there are facts and figures to support both argument, but ultimately it’s one of those arguments that can’t be settled because it’s really subjective. I think the next few years, the odds are that you’ll prove to be right because Spielberg as a director most likely won’t drop off like Smith the actor and when actors get older, you never know.
    But as for right now, Spielberg might be able to make The Chicago 7 without Smith, but with him, he’ll be able to secure a bigger budget and probably a bigger bottom line.

  11. LYT says:

    Like David, I went to see Get Smart this weekend…but I didn’t stay. The auditorium was nearly full when I got there, and all the vacant seats there were had feet up on them from the person sitting behind. So I went and got a refund.
    Thought it was interesting that the film seems to have some legs despite pretty bad reviews.

  12. MattM says:

    What it means for Tell No One is that the U.S. remake rights will be snapped up quickly. Personally, I think it’d be an interesting comeback picture for Ben Affleck to star in as well as direct–set it in Boston, where the themes of corruption and family loyalty have particular resonance, and the script barely needs to be changed at all to work.
    Also, it’s been a long while since I read the book, but IIRC, they changed the ending considerably in a good way.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    I wouldn’t call Get Smart a ‘total’ turd, since Carell, Hathaway, and Arkin were all pleasant to watch, but every aspect was indeed turdish (which has nothing to do with reconciliation between the Turkish and Kurdish peoples).

  14. jeffmcm says:

    that should be ‘every other aspect’

  15. anghus says:

    jeff
    i think you were right the first time.

  16. leahnz says:

    anghus, after seeing ‘hancock’ my 9yr old son had a cornucopia of weird and wonderful ideas for the ‘hancock’ franchise sequels…to slightly misquote the annoyingly-whiny-yet-somehow-likable smart ass hudson from ‘aliens’, “why don’t we put him in charge?!”

  17. anghus says:

    leah
    i would put cash money on the table that anything your 9 yr old son would come up with would be a vast improvement over whatever sequel idea Sony puts forth.

  18. David Poland says:

    The rationalization that the ingredients were pleasant, so it wasn’t a horribly bad, unconsidered, turdburger of a film is like saying that the date rape drug actually made you feel pretty good, so you’ll overlook the rape part… after all, it only took 3 minutes and the bathroom’s bar had air conditioning.

  19. IOIOIOI says:

    If they sequalize Hancock. They can go down the whole “THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE OUT THERE LIKE HANCOCK” route. They thought the other COUPLES WERE DEAD, BUT THEY WERE WRONG [ominous horn noises play]!

  20. Tofu says:

    But it

  21. Wrecktum says:

    “The reason Pixar has abandoned the fall/holiday season to release films is that they felt shorted on The Incredibles back in 2004.”
    It had more to do with DVD, Poland.

  22. Tofu says:

    Mmmmm, I can taste those DVD Holiday sales from here.

  23. “On the other hand, it would secure the top slot for the summer

  24. Nicol D says:

    Roman,
    “First of all, the movie is in 7th place after 7 weekends. That’s very good and should better Iron Man’s 8 week top 10 run. ”
    Exactly, as an Indy fan I am very impressed with the legs this one is showing. It is almost in its 2nd month of release and is still hovering just outside the top 5. How can that be a disappointment for anyone? Jones IV is flawed…but still good. Much better than it had any hopes of being. Spielberg, Lucas, Ford and Blanchett should be proud.
    In a few weeks it begins a run at the old fashioned one screen theatre in Toronto called the Bloor and I for one am looking forward to it. They even put real butter on the popcorn.
    Still haven’t seen Smart but finally caught The Incredible Hulk. Mixed. Excellent first act and it held my attention…but not really better or worse than Lee…just different.
    All in all though…I am liking the selection of summer films this year. Still looking foward to Wall-E.

  25. leahnz says:

    kam, what do you mean by ‘wouldn’t ali be his munich? (re: smith. sorry to be a thickie)

  26. IOIOIOI says:

    You cant name the last 5 BOX OFFICE GROSS WINNAHS? 2007: SPIDER-MAN 3! 2006: DMC! 2005: REVENGE! 2004: SPIDER-MAN 2! 2003: THE LAST MOVIE FEATURING TOO MUCH WALKIN! HIYYYYYYYYYOOOO!!!

  27. jeffmcm says:

    DP and Anghus, let me repeat what I said: that even though the script and direction of Get Smart were bad, the contributions from Steve Carell, Anne Hathaway, and Alan Arkin (hell, why not toss Dwayne Johnson in there), even though they had very little to work with, were professional and amusing. Replace Carell with a lesser actor and the movie would be a total turd. With him, it’s not total.
    Or do we need further hyperbolic metaphors to make sense of this?

  28. jeffmcm says:

    I mean, seriously…sub-mediocre movie = date rape? I thought DP’s secret crime-fighting identity was Captain Shades of Gray.

  29. Noah says:

    I actually thought there was one exchange in Get Smart that was pretty funny. It went something like this:
    Carell: “Are you thinking what I’m thinking?”
    Arkin: “That depends. Were you thinking, ‘holy shit, holy shit, a swordfish almost went through my head?'”
    It’s not exactly Shakespeare, but Arkin’s delivery totally sold it for me. The movie as a whole is a paint by numbers that reminded me of a Bill Murray vehicle from a while back called The Man Who Knew Too Little. And like that movie, I thought Get Smart was stupid, predictable and altogether silly. BUT Carell is always interesting to watch, just like Murray. It’s a movie to fall asleep to when it’s on cable.

  30. IOIOIOI says:

    I really enjoyed Get Smart. If you want to fight about it. Let me know. I will go get the joust poles ready!

  31. jeffmcm says:

    Exactly, Noah. I don’t think it was a good movie, but it was far from the worst I’ve seen this year (Prom Night).

  32. ployp says:

    I’m surprised at how well The Strangers is doing. I haven’t seen it. I hear the The Visitor is an excellent movie. Anyone here seen it? I’m eager to hear more.

  33. Hahahahahaha, oh man. Prom Night was hysterical. DON’T KNOCK OVER THE VASE! Or the table! Or that box! Or those glasses! Or any other inanimate object that you just happen to be walking towards backwards. “Oh, the fire alarm is going off and everybody in the building is being evacuated, but I forgot MY SCARF!!!
    Leah, I was responding to this quote from Noah:
    “And plus, Spielberg’s Munich (which I adore) didn’t set the world on fire and if you’re a movie star, you should be able to open up the films that are hard to open like Will Smith did with Pursuit of Happyness (which doubled Spielberg’s Munich gross).”
    I strangely remember The Man Who Knew Too Little. The video store accidentally put it into my case for – yikes – Hard Rain.

  34. leahnz says:

    got it, kam.
    ‘the man who knew too little’…tee hee. ah, the ‘joanne whalley-kilmer’ era, may it rest in peace.
    ployp, ‘the strangers’ has mysteriously disappeared from our release schedule here, i’m sorta bummed. tres bizarre

  35. EDouglas says:

    Wasn’t “I Am Legend” Will Smith’s biggest opening? That opened with over $70 million in three days and at least two of those days did better than any of the past five Hancock days.

  36. I thought Get Smart was a relatively entertaining 2.5 star movie. It wasn’t good, but the cast was terrific, it wasn’t boring, and I laughed a few times (I liked the arc of the giant henchman). But, I was amazed how similar it was to the Jackie Chan/Jennifer Love Hewitt 2002 caper The Tuxedo. It has a very similar set-up, similar plot progression, story beats, and character arcs.

  37. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “The Happening” is from Fox, Spyglass and India-based UTV Communications, hence Fox isn’t totally on the hook.
    “The Wackness” can go mainstream if it plays in the right multiplexes. Black neighborhoods won’t go near “Mamma Mia!” but will go for a movie with hip-hop — even if it’s old school.

  38. Hopscotch says:

    The Strangers is half good. It’s not torture porn, a relief. The first half of the movie is surprisingly effective. Sets up the mood, the situation. Goes by very well.
    The second half it really becomes a by the number, by the numbers horror movie with every cliche in the book. Still, I half liked.
    I also am dying to see The Visitor.

  39. yancyskancy says:

    I honestly had no great expectations for “Get Smart,” which I found to be a surprisingly respectable action comedy. It may be short on true hilarity, but it keeps moving and the cast makes it fun. There’s not much more to say about it, other than it’s one of the few TV-to-film knock-offs I wouldn’t mind seeing sequelized (if only to see more of Hymie the Robot, who gets a late cameo in this one).
    If the above hasn’t obliterated my critical cred, I’ll add that “The Visitor,” a small story with some big themes, is a superb film that would be even greater if its well-meaning political agenda were as subtly presented as the remarkable performances of the impressive cast. We are so involved with these sympathetic people and so immersed in their points of view that the resultant drama is rendered as black and white. I kept wishing that the faceless, heartless bureaucracy would cough up one intelligent antagonist to complicate things a bit. This could’ve been done without diminishing the film’s impact, but it’s a nitpick. For long stretches, this works as a showcase for four excellent actors: the always invaluable Richard Jenkins in a rare leading role, the charismatic Haaz Sleiman, the riveting Danai Gurira and strong yet sensitive Hiam Abbass. The film soars on the magic they make, and the room that McCarthy’s script and direction gives them to make it. The deliberate pace may try your patience, but it’s hard to imagine you won’t also be moved.

  40. crazycris says:

    A question for those of you who know more about this (money) stuff than I do: what do those box office numbers mean for Prince Caspian? good or bad? enough to stop or continue the series?
    It just came out in Spain this weekend and I thoroughly enjoyed it! The only bad things I could say about it have to do with the changes in the story (going after Miraz? huh??? and the hurried chronology, the horn should have been blown much later). The kids all did an excellent job, the pace was good, the story solid, the views spectacular (really Leah, I’m so jealous of you guys down there! but was happy to recognise the area around Paradise in the early scenes), the music perhaps a bit loud. So why wasn’t this a bigger success? I’m already looking forward to the Dawn Treader! And hope they’ll keep it up at least until The Silver Chair and The Final Battle… :o)

  41. LexG says:

    WACKNESS = THIRLBY = OWNS YOUR ASS.

  42. Roman says:

    “On the Will Smith issue, wouldn’t Ali be his Munich? Except that one didn’t have international appeal in the slightest (American sport movies don’t tend to very often).”
    Not at all. The two have absolutely nothing in common.
    And you’d be suprised by how well known Mr. Clay is in most parts of the world.

  43. martindale says:

    Caspian didn’t do as well because only a fraction of those who have read The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe have read Prince Caspian. The book just isn’t nearly as well known. That, and Disney got a bit lazy on their advertising.

  44. crazycris says:

    how can you know about one book and not about the others??!!

  45. jeffmcm says:

    The Lion/Witch/Wardrobe is a staple in school classes and on summer reading lists. The later books, not as much. Plenty of kids (like myself) get through the first one and don’t bother with the others.

  46. leahnz says:

    crazycris, it looks like ‘dawn treader’ is going ahead, but word is production will be moved out of auckland (and nz altogether) due to the lack of large studio space needed for the primarily indoor boat shoot (the henderson studios supposedly aren’t big enough and the huge wellywood studios are booked out; much of caspian was shot indoors at an eastern european studio anyway with nz scenery piped in via computer, only the obviously outdoor northland and milford/fiordland stuff was filmed here. upshot is, we need bigger and better world class studios here in order to compete with the big countries. stupid big countries!).
    i have a horrible confession: while watching ‘caspian’ i developed a little cradle-robbing crush on the prince himself, what a cutiepie…susan was a double dumbass for leaving that spunk behind 😉

  47. Tofu says:

    Prince Caspian’s Box Office means that Dawn Treader will sink or swim the rest of the franchise. Monumental flop, as five other movies had to follow, but now it may be only one.

  48. ployp says:

    Same with me on The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe. We read it as a class in 5th grade. At college, I decided to read the rest. I also love Prince Caspian and am looking forward to the Dawn Treader. I wonder what it’ll be like, taking place mostly on a ship.

  49. Hopscotch says:

    ***NEWS ALERT***
    According to today’s Variety. Hancock’s weekend total was $4M off. Actual accumaltive is $103M. Now, that’s still amazing. Not downplaying that total figure. But these numbers are usually off at the most by $1M to $2M, not $4M. Curious. Studio trying to brag?

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4