Klady's Friday Estimates – B4
As a remarkable run continues, The Dark Knight may go 4 in a row… a feat so remarkable it hasn’t happened since earlier this year. Sorry… along with ticket sale obsession, this is a stupid stat and part of why there is hype backlash on this movie, which is not backlash against the movie. Add to that the breathless, hyperactive, and inaccurate – inaccuracies that would be forgivable if they weren’t so emphatic and so lacking in perspective – and you have a very impressive mountain turned into a media molehill. Really.
Meanwhile, Pineapple Express is on track to gross right along with Superbad – a 5-day opening vs a 3-day, but they will do about the same in their first five days with Pineapple doing much less 3-vs-3 – and Knocked Up, for that matter, though Knocked had the longer legs, most likely because of its release date. In these last 4 Apatow Years, really only Walk Hard has been anything but a success. And it’s likely no coincidence that it is the only film outside of Apatow’s self-defined genre.
A $5 million increase in the first 3 days of the Pants (non-Joey) franchise is good… what it really means, we won’t know for a while. The first film did about 3 times the 5-day opeinng with weekly holds that shifted in the breeze… but the numbers were small enough that it never seemed eventful. Perhaps an outdoor campaign featuring a blurry image of ABC’s starlet servicing CW’s starlet and the tag, “OMFG… It’s their first girl-girl experimentation,” would have helped the franchise break out (non-acne).
Looking at the chart, it really strikes me how badly Disney blew the Swing Vote opportunity. An entertaining turn for adults is so missing from the marketplace… they had it… they blew it with a big-head one-sheet.
Mamma Mia! hits $100m today…. sixth musical ever and fourth in the last seven years. MM! gets there a week before Hairspray and is stronger on the crossing weekend by more than 50%. MM! may pass Dreamgirls tomorrow and will settle into being the #3 all-time musical sometime in mid-September.
Some lists to look at regarding TDK’s standing at the end of this weekend:
Top Movies All-time:
1. Titanic
2. Star Wars
3. or 4. The Dark Knight
3. or 4. Shrek 2
Top Superhero and Comic Book Movies (Adjusted):
1. Batman
2. The Dark Knight
Top Warner Bros. Movies all-time (Adjusted):
1. Batman
2. The Dark Knight
Top Movies of the Decade (Adjusted):
1. Shrek 2
2. Spider-Man
3. Dead Man’s Chest
4. The Dark Knight
Top Sequals all-time (Adjusted):
1. The Empire Strikes Back
2. Return of the Jedu
3. The Phanton Menace
4. Thunderball
5. Shrek 2
6. Goldfinger
7. Dead Man’s Chest
8. The Dark Knight
EARLY FRI & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: “The Dark Knight’ soars past ‘Pineapple’ stoners; Caped Crusader with an estimated $7.8M Fri & $26.5M 3-day; ‘Express’ with $7.65M Fri & likely $22.95M weekend; ‘Pants 2’ with $3.85M Fri & $10.58M frame!
http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2008/08/early-fri-3-day.html
Sad to hear about Bernie Mac’s passing.
I was a little surprised that Variety.com didn’t send out one of their “Variety Alerts” emails to announce it. (Just received one the other day about Bernie Brillstein, in fact.)
Well I usually don’t like screaming “rascism,” this apparent oversight does seem rather…telling.
Favorite Mad Mac performance? “Bad Santa,” of course.
july 28th Dave’s Mummy Sucks post….i called this. i said 4 weekends in a row! woo hoo. where is my dap Dave?
…and would you “Dark Knight” cheerleaders give it a ****ing rest already?!?!?!
Yes, it’s the greatest ****ing movie ever made.
Yes, it’s gonna pulverize “Titanic” and “The Sound of Music” and “Gone With the Wind” and every other other ****ing movie ever made in the b.o. record books.
Yes, it’s gonna sweep the Oscars next February.
Hell, I’ve even heard rumors that–since one acting Oscar ain’t enough for the single greatest performance in the history of recorded entertainment–they’re going to deem Mr. Method Ledger eligible in both the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories just so they can give him two Oscars for the same perf!
And Chris Nolan is the most amazing director who was ever born…or will ever be born…and nobody will ever make a movie as fan(boy) -****ing-tastic as “TDK” ever again….except maybe, drool, slurp, drool Chris Nolan. Hell, I’ve even heard they’re going to give retroactive Oscars to “Batman Begins” and “The Prestige” as mea culpa for dissing them in 2005 and ’06 respectively.
Seriously, gang, enough already.
I may be in the minority here, but I’m more than a little pissed off that every second posting on here is somehow “Dark Knight” related.
“The Dark Knight may go 4 in a row… a feat so remarkable it hasn’t happened since earlier this year. Sorry… along with ticket sale obsession, this is a stupid stat ”
i think the fact that it’s doing it in summer is a huge deal. but i’m not saying that it makes it any better or worse than any other movie. just that in a time when a film is usually one and done in first place, 4 weekends in a row is pretty phenomenal.
geez movieman…you think all that stuff could happen? awesome.
The Dark Knight may go 4 in a row… a feat so remarkable it hasn’t happened since earlier this year.
It hasn’t been accomplished since Return of the King. And it hasn’t been accomplished in the summer since The Sixth Sense. You said so yourself.
Sorry… along with ticket sale obsession, this is a stupid stat and part of why there is hype backlash on this movie, which is not backlash against the movie.
The ‘backlash’ isn’t overly vocal, honestly. You are the largest proponent in the media that I know of talking about it. And yes, of course it matters, because it provides more headlines, which in turn provides more awareness. I’ve met plenty of non-movie watchers in the past week who have yet to see the film, but are becoming interested.
This is how you bring these people in. You make it an event, not a diversion.
forgiveable
Forgivable. No E. Minor nitpick.
I may be in the minority here, but I’m more than a little pissed off that every second posting on here is somehow “Dark Knight” related.
It is going to become the second largest domestic film of all time by next weekend, and for a box office based blog such as this one, it only follows to conclusion.
TOFU ! Thank you!
Only “second largest domestic film of all time”????? That’s heresy around here, Tofu Boy!
We “Dark Knight” acolytes will settle for nothing less than
“#1 largest domestic film EVER”!!!!!
“TDK” IS #1! “TDK” IS #1! “TDK” IS #1! “TDK” IS #1!
I used to merely dislike “Knight,” but now I frigging hate it…and everything it represents (the total and complete geek-ization of the world).
Let me repeat an earlier comment:
“Nolan has always been a pretentious wanker, and he still doesn’t know how to tell a story.”
movieman, you find the BO numbers impressive in the least?
I’ll be delighted if Mummy tumbles so hard that it ultimately grosses less than the very quietly successful Journey to the Centre of the Earth.
#1 largest domestic film EVER”!
OK, yeah, those guys are annoying. Ahahaha.
tdk will not be number one but it will hit 500 and that’s a big deal. it’s not the greatest film ever, imdb be damned, but it does prove there are still guys out there trying to make a big epic movie. the fanboys will hate it later this year….you’ll see….i’ll show you.
The five-day take is quite impressive, but the front loaded Wednesday prevented what could have been a $35 million or so three-day, which would have easily taken number 01 for the weekend and allowed bragging rights on two levels. A: The biggest Apatow-related opening weekend of all time (besting the $30 million hauls for Superbad and Knocked Up). B: Allowing Pineapple Express to brag about taking down The Dark Knight and being the number one film of the weekend. Now there is a real risk that it will come in second.
$40 million+ in five days is terrific, especially when you consider the genre (it will have out grossed both Harold And Kumar films by Sunday), its budget ($25 million) and the previous filmography of director David Gorden Green, who’s previous (justifiably) critically acclaimed intimate dramas about poverty and struggle in rural America have grossed, in total, $134,527 . For once, I finished watching a David Gorden Green film and didn’t feel the need to make a donation to a local charity. I can say with certainty that Pineapple Express is the least depressing film he has ever made (though to be fair, I have yet to see Snow Angels, but I’ll catch it on DVD as soon as it becomes available). Still, I wonder if Sony would have rather had the bragging rights of debuting at number 01 for the weekend and dethroning The Dark Knight by a large margin. Tomato/Tomata I suppose.
“Sad to hear about Bernie Mac’s passing. I was a little surprised that Variety.com didn’t send out one of their “Variety Alerts” emails to announce it.”
CNN sent one out, for what it’s worth.
“In these last 4 Apatow Years, really only Walk Hard has been anything but a success.”
Umm, DRILLBIT TAYLOR?
My apologies for a mistake in the above post. Re – $35 million three-day beating the opening weekend record for an Apatow film (the $30 million openings for Knocked Up, Super Bad, and Step Brothers). I completely forgot that Apatow was involved in Talladega Nights, which opened to $47 million.
You’re right, Tofu… movies haven’t gone 4 in a row lately. National Treasure 2 went FIVE weeks. And Night at The Museum went FIVE weeks the year before.
The reason it is a stupid stat – the kind studios throw out to impress with films much less impressive than TDK – is that it relies on the relative failure of other films, not the success of the film in question.
Be impressed that TDK is the #1 1st & 2nd weekend, the #2 3rd, etc. Be impressed that it will probably become the #3 all-time domestic grosser (in first run alone) this weekend. But counting weekends is as stupid for this as it is for The Slump’s consecutive down weeks theme.
Or think of it like this… there were nine other opening weekends that would have beaten TDK’s third week… Hellboy 2, Get Smart, and The Mummy 3 are the only opening weekend winners that would not have stopped the TDK run at 2. If Pineapple had opened on Friday, there would be no question about TDK winning 4. Are these the kind of stats you really want to crow about?
Again… all this sets me up as some sort of anti-TDK guy. But dumb stats are ALWAYS dumb stats.
Of course, the key stat of the whole Titanic lie – where are those apology cards that screamed I was wrong about that one – is international, where TDK lost to Mummy 3 last week, $61m to $38m.
The sad part of all of this is how disposable the overhype makes real achievements, week in and week out. Everything gets so overcharged that, really, there isn’t even enough energy left for backlash. In like a lion… out like a lamb.
So here we are on Weekend Four, TDK now well behind Titanic’s Weekend Four (though grossing more than double Titanic in 3 weeks and a weekend)… perhaps #5 or #6 for a fourth weekend ever… impressive… but not enough for the tweekers.
That’s what I am lashing out against.
It’s Fahrenheit 9/11 helping Bush back into office. A hyperbole line gets crossed and suddenly, even real issues/achievements don’t matter.
Sorry, Cad… was looking at the Mojo list, where Drillbit isn’t on his producers list…
TDK’s mammoth early take is undeniably impressive, but I still find Titanic’s numbers more impressive. Over $20 mill a week for 14 WEEKS– those are some gams, baby.
NT2 and Night @ Museum were each on top for 3 wks, not five.
yeah dave, the bomojo numbers are off because they have 5day weekends in the list so it looks like 5 but it’s only three.
National Treasure 2 and Night at The Museum only went three weeks. National Treasure was knocked off by Bucket List and Museum was served by Stomp the Yard.
While you may thing its a stupid stat, and I do agree that it is more about the power of the movies that open against you, its still impressive to do it in the current marketplace, and in Summer no less.
What I’d like to know from you Dave, is your critical analysis as to why this movie is doing so well. I know you pegged it at maybe $250M, and I had it pegged a bit higher at $275M-295M. But not this.
Surely there have been other movies with great critical response, like xmen 1&2 that just could’nt break through that 250M ceiling. Why did TDK?
Two words: Heath Ledger.
…if this is a repeat, apologies in advance.
No, Keoki: I’m not even impressed by that particular aspect of “TDK” since every b.o. record (IMAX) these days–like home runs in baseball–should come with an automatic asterisk (IMAX) attached.
I still think it’s a mediocre-at-best, obscenely overhyped, laughably overrated movie.
And don’t even get me started on Bale’s silly Charlie Sheen vocal imitation or the way that “stick-up-her-ass” Gyllenhaal stinks up the screen. If there are certain actors/actresses you want to kiss–and others you want to slap–Mag definitely belongs in the latter camp, if only to take that smug, “ain’t-I-hip?” smirk off her smarmy face. (And no, I am not advocating violence against women, lol.)
Aaron Eckhart, yeah; “TDK,” no thanks.
How come no one has commented on the sleeper success of “Tell No One”? Kudos to Music Box for having the business savvy to acquire U.S. distribution rights; and the skill they’ve displayed in successfully marketing it.
Sony Classics should be kicking themselves right about now for letting “TNO” get away.
Poland, I don’t get it. It’s a stupid stat…but this is going to be Warner Bros.’ biggest release in history. If nothing else, that alone is a massive achievement in this day and age when Warner’s next biggest films were released in 1989 and 1978 respectively. It’s also going to end up the largest superhero movie ever and the top grossing movie of the decade. A mountain of a molehill?
If a once in a decade box office gross is a molehill, what is your definition of a mountain? A once every 50 years event like Gone With the Wind or Titanic that will never happen again? If so, why do you even post analysis of individual movies? And what is this backlash you speak of? It’s minor compared to the threequel backlash against Pirates, Shrek, Spidey and Ocean’s last year and microscopic compared to the absolute drubbing Titanic has taken since its release.
And you still upset it didn’t gross $600 million? Was the bong still lit this morning?
National Treasure 2 and Night at the Museum went 5 weeks? Are we using weeks in the life of a cat, dog or other small mammal to come up with this?
The last film to go 4 weeks, actually guys, is Passion of the Christ. Return of the King is the last to do it 4 consecutively. Do your hw Poland.
I would point out movieman, that if you don’t think piracy counters the positive effect IMAX has had on today’s BO, then I really don’t know what to tell you.
Sorry about that… well sussed Keoki…
Bulldog… I don’t think it is much different than POTC: Dead Man’s Chest.
The two key dates in the summer have become opening day and the second weekend of July. The first means getting a head start and some free space. The second means that you are after the big wave and you have some free space. Of course, you have to have the right movie.
As I keep saying, Batman Begins is the anomaly in the series. This is the fourth time in six shots that the series has been the biggest opener ever when opening. And the fifth one was #8 all time at the time, 3 of the other 7 being Batman movies.
I think Iron Man also primed the pump a little. People like the film and a film seen as a better comic book movie should get some traction.
This is rarified air, and really, only Batman and Spider-Man have shown they can live there.
But note
Ethan… you read me with some twisted idea sometimes.
I WROTE: “a very impressive mountain turned into a media molehill.” The success is the mountain. Get it?
And no, this is not WB’s biggest release in history. Not going to be close. Unless you see $977m in the cards at this point. I don’t.
But why does being WB’s best non-Potter performer ever piss so many of you off?
Finally… you bring up Titanic backlash… so you are capable of seeing that perspective exists… so why is my call for perspective so irritating?
Are these the kind of stats you really want to crow about?
Well, not crow, but watch and find enjoyment in, yes. Sure. The figures you run on individual stats of movie stars doesn’t have to bother mentioning what opened against it, because the film performs as it performs.
The worldwide figure isn’t so impressive, as The Mummy and Dark Knight are in entirely different markets. The more interesting point would have been that The Mummy had a higher per theater average domestically. Well, for Friday. And then it was all down hill.
the worldwide number really will be the number that tells the story in the long-run. all of this will be just smoke if HP6 or Bond has some gigantor WW number. looking at the worldwide numbers Potter has amassed is just amazing and dave is right about the TDK number….it has to find another 200 mil off shore to get to that truly rarified air. but geez 500 domestic is sick!
And you should be pleased, Tofu. Just don’t shove it down everyone’s throat like it is the discovery of fire.
And when I do look at stars or any stats, I do look for context, like what the film opened against or when it opened. Films don’t just “perform as they perform.” They are part of a complex structure of release, including marketing. And perceptions change… a lot.
Spider-Man 3 may have won last summer domestically, but Pirates did better overseas, and the real stories of the summer were Transformers, The Simpsons, and Knocked Up/Superbad. Not as much money – Transformers was $250m behind Pirates ww – but more significant in many ways. The lessons from those films will have more influence on Hollywood, for better or worse, than the Big Tri and Potter.
TDK should get to over $900 million worldwide (and it’ll certainly get into the all-time Top 20; there’s really no chance that it won’t; it seems you’re going to underestimate it right to the end, Dave). Its international release still has a long way to go, with pending releases in a number of major markets. Potter 6 looks like a lock for $900 million worldwide and it has an excellent shot at $1 billion. It’s going to be stiff competition for TDK for the worldwide crown.
TDK is certainly a domestic box office phenom. It’ll be WB’s highest domestic gross ever by a large margin, and it’s now a lock for $500 million domestic and the #2 unadjusted spot. That’s hugely impressive any way you slice it. The international box office won’t be on Potter levels, but it will represent a massive jump over the previous international numbers of the Batman series.
Titanic still has by far the most impressive box office run in modern motion picture history. But TDK ranks right up there amongst impressive box office feats.
Hey movie: if you want to stop being a dick about it. There may be some wiggle room for you. If not, really, you are so fringe.
David Poland: again, what the fuck ever.
and the devolvement begins
Keoki: I can handle Citizen R’s response because it lacks that certain DICKINESS that movie and Poland are now sharing. Those two read like bitter fan boys, and Poland will hold a bitter streak longer than a nun. So here’s to TDK knocking shit out of the box and proving David Poland FUCKING WRONG AGAIN. YOU ARE WRONG, SIR! WRONG!
hey man whatever floats your boat.
To put things into perspective if TDK manages to remain at #1 for a fourth weekend in a row: unless I’ve missed something in scanning the charts, only two films have held #1 for four weekends consecutively in this decade – The Fellowship of the Ring and The Return of the King (both of course December releases); the last summer film to do so was The Sixth Sense in 1999, which remained at #1 for five weeks following its 6th of August release.
there’s all kinds of ways to look at this thing but i just love to see the numbers. it’s what drew me to the hot button 10 years ago. dave was one of the only guys, if not the only guy, deconstructing the numbers. why it was a big deal, or why it wasn’t. so dave keep on keepin’ on.
And you should be pleased, Tofu. Just don’t shove it down everyone’s throat like it is the discovery of fire.
Hey, the film is the hottest thing out this summer. ;D
But there is plenty to learn from The Dark Knight. Iron Man propelled off Batman Begins, and we shall likely see others attempt to propel off Dark Knight. Hell, Warner Bros. themselves has hired the same viral company to manage Watchmen.
Why I think TDK is a lock to enter the Worldwide Top 20 and has a good shot at $900 million (which would put it close to the Worldwide Top 10): This is its third weekend in the UK, opening weekend in Japan and South Korea, and it has yet to open in France, Germany, Spain, and Russia. It has a long way to run yet internationally. Put that together with the rest of its domestic run and $800 million worldwide is certain and $900 million is within reach.
David…my apologies on the misreading. A couple clarifications….if you want to talk about worldide grosses, we’re both wrong. Sorcerer’s Stone is not WB’s top performing movie in terms of attendance if you factor in inflation. Of course that’s problematic given worldwide tracking before 2000, but with $650 million worldwide, and $850 worlwide with only domestic inflation factored in, you have to figure Batman blows Sorcerer’s Stone right out of the water…
As for TDK beating $976 million, yes, it’s only a matter of time. I recommend a lot of people on this site read C.S. Strowbridge (who I help over at the-numbers.com…plug plug), who knows more about worldwide box office patterms then the entire braintrust at boxofficemojo. (if there even is one)
Anyway, TDK has yet to open in Japan, South Korea, Japan, France, Spain, Russia, Germany and Austria (7 of the 11 top non North American markets). If you look at Pirates of the Carribean Dead Man’s Chest’s release pattern, it is faaar more frontloaded than TDK and stunningly was only at $703 million after 4 weeks of release. TDK is going to be at $675 million factoring in no international numbers over the last 7 days at tne end of the weekend!!!
So yes, A Billie, as Jay-Z would say, is in the cards.
Dave, seriously, this is getting out of hand….
You keep talking about how crazy people are getting over this movie, but virtually every blog, seems like you put out the bait to get people riled up about it…..that’s crap that Jeffrey Wells pulls and you are much better that Jeffrey Wells.
I am not saying The Dark Knight is the greatest movie ever and can even acknowledge that is getting overpraised in some circles, but you cannot deny the phenomemon that this movie has become.
Unless Avatar or Transformers 2 truly explode, next year, this WILL be the highest grossing film decade, even adjusting against inflation. I know this is the frontloading era and ticket prices and IMAX and stuff, but please spare me the “asterisk” crap, not you Dave. Biggest of the decade is biggest of the decade, I don’t care why any one says.
To give some “perspective,” the film only dropped about 40% week-to-week, last night, against what was the highest rated Olympics opening ceremony in decades! The film held up well against just about the biggest Friday-night non-movie competition a movie can have. (Super Bowls are on Sunday’s.) THAT’s a phenomenon, any way you slice it.
And biggest of the decade – let’s evaluate that one. 1990’s – Titanic, 1980’s – E.T., 1970’s – Star Wars, 1960’s – The Sound of Music. I don’t think any one would deny that any of those films were true game-changing phenommenons and what makes TDK even more special against that crop is that is the only one of the bunch that was truly made for ADULTS, not teens, not families, just adults. Pretty damn impressive.
And we can get all “crazy” about international grosses and such – no, it won’t top the Potters or Pirates or LOTR overseas, BUT in all likelihood, it will sell more DVD’s than any of them and with 100% certainty be the biggest selling Blu-Ray disc for many years. Trust me on this – the cash is going to flow as heavy from this movie as any other film in years. If you’re going to get all hyper about the international stuff, which is no doubt important, you cannot ignore the other ancillaries, too.
All this drama about everything I am not counting in TDK’a favor… on what planet? I never wrote any of those things. I brought up the ancillaries weeks ago, when no one else was talking about them.
I every good looking person a great lay? Do you want to go for BBQ at a 3 star French restaurant? Does Bush have to be the biggest moron ever or Obama a savior for people to understand their actions? I don
I cannot fathom another release that could be a bigger DVD seller of this year. The Dark Knight is a major win for the franchise, and a major win for the Superhero genre. That is likely all.
And Harry Potter will make $60 million more this year, on the same budget.
Still, chances of seeing another film reach $500 million domestic again? Not in the cards, and maybe never again in the cards.
That’s just wrong, Tofu.
Kung Fu Panda and Indiana Jones both have a real chance of outselling The Dark Knight. And both will spend less marketing the DVD because WB is so agog with their success and overspend. I can’t say Wall-E will outsell TDK, but they are likely to be in a similar ballpark.
Second… Potter will make $60 million more than what?
Same budget… WB owns Potter outright… lots more profit.
A movie will hit $500 million worldwide – and we are all assuming TDK will get there – again. How can you argue otherwise when Batman opened to $8 million more than Spidey 3? The spread is not that great. Helll, it could well be the next Batman movie that cracks it. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. Could be Toy Story 3. Could be the last Potter.
What we do know is that we are very, very unlikely to ever see a Titanic again, doing $28 million a week for months. But Dark Knight will probably do a little better than 3x opening. Are you really going to commit to no film EVER opening better and NEVER doing 3x its opening?
Look guys… I jumped up and down and was truly excited when Batman did $40 million in one weekend. Astounding. Nicholson took home $75 million for that movie. Astounding. Sell-thru VHS in just 5 months. Astounding.
But I saw it and I saw it and I saw it… that’s all I am saying.
I jumped all over Pirates 2’s opening, day by day. And I was being silly. It crushed records the same way Dark Knight is… and then, less than a year late, Spidey 3 crushed its records. And a year later, Dark Knight is doing the same.
What’s the difference… aside from international? You guys really like the movie. and that’s great. I like it too, if not as much as some of you. But the math doesn’t change and history doesn’t change because of your personal taste. Sorry.
And shall I say again… I WAS WRONG ABOUT $600 MILLION!!!!!
Clear enough?
TDK does $900m worldwide… $450m comes back.
WB and Legendary are $100 million into profit. WB is actually $140M in profit because of distribution fees.
$300m more comes back in ancillaries. They split it.
WB makes $290m. Legendary makes $200m.
The threat for Legendary to shutter stops for now. WB fires some more people, in spite of looking forward to even more profit on Potter in November.
Happier?
I agree, Dave, this does not have to be all-or-nothing argument – I can vote for Obama, while being comfortable in the notion that McCain is not “evil.” Just as I never really voted against Bush because I thought he was a “Nazi,” “cowboy” or “moron” – I just happened to think the guy was pretty lousy at his job.
I’m not the one throwing out extreme rhetoric, here – you’re saying that for a film to be the Number One DOMESTIC grosser of the decade is not a major accomplishment??? Sounds pretty extreme to me.
If if hasn’t opened in most of the major overseas markets, yet, then how can you be so sure it won’t do another $500 million? Hardly any one has been able to accurately predict or track this thing on a week-to-week basis, so far, and you can be so confident about international markets?
Dave, you keep dodging this question in the blogs – how did Warners market this to “young people” in any way? It was truly a campaign geared towards adults – geez, compare it to Hannibal back in 2001 and explain to me how The Joker was meant to have some youth appeal that Lector didn’t – no way about it, Warners knew what they had with this thing was careful about trying to avoid another ‘Returns marketing debacle.
This was film marketed towards adults and has brought in huge grosses from adults – THAT in itself makes it a game-changer.
And the fact that this will likely be the film that really helps Blu-Ray take off will probably make it a game changer – true, you could call that hyperbole, but if there is one safe bet, it’s that this film will set the standard for Blu-Ray sales.
Like I said weeks ago, December release, critics prizes, home-theater standard visuals – Warners has a slam dunk, here, with the DVD and Blu-Ray. I doubt they will be losing sleep over whether it grosses $40 million less in Japan, seriously.
And you have some good points about Jurassic Park, but I will stay with the argument that Titanic was a bigger game-changer than Jurassic Park – it completly changed the marketplace and the way major blockbusters are marketed. You cannot deny that.
I have a tough time believing that Indy 4 will out sell TDK, KFP, or W-E. Not to be a hater…..but Indy doesn’t seem to be huge with the younger Demo. Hell, just because of the split, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iron Man sold more units than Indy 4. I don’t think that it will sell as well as Phantom Menace..Star Wars fans seem more excited.
Dave, in a matter of a few posts you’ve gone from saying TDK making the Worldwide All-Time Top 10 (which would require besting $914.7 million) is “very, very unlikely” to saying that $900 million worldwide isn’t “guaranteed at this point, but very possible”. You’re not exactly being consistent here.
Anyway, I don’t think TDK is necessarily a game changer, but I don’t think a film has to be a game changer to have its box office achievements recognized. Was Titanic really a game changer? I don’t think so. People all over the world flocked to see it like no other modern film and it set records that won’t be surpassed for a very, very long time. But was it a game changer in terms of how the industry makes tentpole films? If anyone thinks it was I’d be interested to hear how they think it did so.
TDK is a genuine domestic phenom and represents one of the biggest rejuvenations (in both domestic and worldwide box office) that a once moribund film series has ever seen. It’ll also be the darkest and most adult-skewing film to achieve this level of box office. If it’s #1 this weekend it’ll be only the third film this decade to achieve four consecutive weekends at #1 and the first summer film to do so. All hugely impressive
I see Geoff thinks Titanic was a bigger game changer than Jurassic Park (JP being the film that really kick-started CGI as a major force in filmmaking, which in turn elevated FX eye candy to an even greater level than ever before). I think the opposite is the case. How do you think Titanic changed the way blockbusters are marketed, Geoff?
Sorry, I edited in the comment in brackets above, but it obviously should go after “I think the opposite is the case”.
Citizen R,
After Titanic, just about every action blockbuster is now marketed with an eye towards teenage girls – younger, less threatening male stars are now toplining the big blockbusters, and it is now almost a key part of every campaign to show youthful romance.
It all came to a head in 2002:
What was the money shot of the hugely successful Spiderman campaign? The upside-down kiss.
Despite much more hype, bigger budget, more marketing dollars spent, etc, Bourne became the major spy franchise that XXX was expected to be.
Scattered examples, sure, but the industry has changed. Not necessarily more films toplining females or female-centric subject matter. You can’t expect a complete 180 degrees.
But you cannot launch a franchise or a big stand-alone tentpole blockbuster, nowadays, without at least giving a shout-out to teenage females.
It’s why guys like Jim Sturgess are being groomed for stardom, why Shia LeBouf was intstrumental to the success of Transformers (which happens to be on cable, right now), why New Line was comfortable putting girly-man Elijah Wood on more posters than Viggo Mortenson, why you had to push the Reese Witherspoon-romance angle to make Walk the Line a bigger hit than any other biopic, why Vince Vaughn finally hit it big in comedy instead of action, why you had to have the “Mac guy” in Die Hard 4, etc – it all stemmed from the success of Titanic.
Not saying it’s changed things for the better, but it has changed things. Now, you could make a case that the advent of CGI changed things as much, but then you couldn’t really give sole credit to Jurassic Park – remember, Terminator 2 came out just two years before. For better or worse, James Cameron is probably the most influential filmmaker of the past 20 years.
Ah, right, I hadn’t thought of the impact of Titanic in terms of that sort of shift. Thanks for that. As for T2, I see it more as one of the steps in the development of CGI than as the real game changer. It was an important step, and a step that got more attention than the earlier ones (like Willow), but it was JP that really changed the game in terms of CGI and the overall FX milieu.
Of course I’m not consistent, Citizen R… I don’t know… you don’t know… no one knows. All of these are possibilities. I am trying to keep open and the number probably has a $100 million range of possibility.
Geoff – I have NEVER said this was not a great accomplishment on a box office level… just that it has been endlessly overstated and hyped beyond sanity.
The marketing on the movie is very, very similar to the marketing on the other Batman movies. The 3-face one-sheet is dead on Batman Returns. They even have the same Joker menaces girl, Batman answers joke. They close on Alfred making light of Batman’s self-seriousness. The ads are all about the toys. The movie is filled with pencils, guns, knives, and very personal threats.
But those kids did show up. En masse. After all, how much worse than Iron Man could it be?
The Top 10 markets in International are about 70% of the gross. Half have already opened… two more this week. We’ll see, but the numbers look excellent… but not in the stratosphere.
And as for Blu-ray… no way. The game changer this fall is Sleeping Beauty, but even that has eyes bigger than its stomach. We’ll see if BD-Live really works. But more so, there is not enough product out there to get people to spend the $300… if the $300 players really land. Six people will spend that kind of money to avoid upscaling The Dark Knight. And until Disney has a couple more classics and, say, the Toy Stories… tough road to hoe.
You want to bet on the Bat? Go ahead. Kids & Porn drive technology. And the teen boys already have their PS3s.
Dave, that’s actually very funny about “kids and porn” – you are more in the know about this stuff, so I am leery about going toe-to-toe with you on the Blu-ray thing. But when a new format launches, isn’t always the newest big hit that helps it take off? I mean, weren’t Austin Powers and Gladiator the first big DVD hits?
DVD was well established for years, before Lucas finally jumped in and wasn’t VHS established for years before Disney started doing sell-through of all of their classics? And you have kind helped make this argument, too – it apparently took the phenomemnon of Batman ’89 to really launch VHS sell-through. Wouldn’t it make sense for history to repeat itself with The Dark Knight and Blu-Ray? The timing couldn’t be better – so yeah, I’m “betting on the bat.”
As for the marketing campaign, sorry, I am going to have to agree to disagree with you on this one, the evidence is just too obvious.
You put some of the first elements of this campaign on your own blog, because of how notable they were – the decision to take Batman out of the title and just call it “The Dark Knight” which seemed ballsy at the time, those creepy “Wh So Serious” posters with blood-red paint smeared on glass or brick – defiantly NOT kid-friendly stuff. And hell, when they had the chance to preview footage, last year, via Imax, did they show some action sequence with Batman looking heroic, using some gadget, and ending with a quip? Not at all – they previewed the opening sequence, with no image of Batman, robbers shooting each other, a passing glance of Joker, and Heat-like visuals of that bank heist – the message was loud and clear that this was not a typical superhero movie and that it was not for kids.
Sure, they hit some of the typical hero/toy notes on some of the T.V. ads and they did have that 3-face banner, but the final one-sheet had the tagline “Welcome to a World Without Rules” and most of the beats of those ads and posters were much closer, in tone, to a campaign for a serial killer drama than Iron Man.
Like I have said repeatedly, Warners really had no choice about this – kids have shown up, kids will always show up for things that look too grown-up for them. But if it had actually been marketed towards them, then part of this backlash that you keep talking about would have involved parents groups or conservative pundits blathering on about kids shouldn’t have been targeted, a la Temple of Doom or Batman Returns – “my kids had to see this and the Joker is now giving them nightmares….” And that has not happened, at all.
Part of it was saavy marketing towards the right crowd and part of it was just corporate responsibility.
Just on a role, here:
Furthermore, Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine were all over the ads – yeah, THEY’LL bring in the kids! That and no rock and roll music – the message was loud and clear that this was no Iron Man, from the beginning.
Geoff is dead on. The ‘appeal to girls’ angle of tent pole movies has been so prevalent that it was odd and allegedly risky that Iron Man ignored this portion. It was arguably the most ‘no girls allowed’ marketing of any mega movie in ages. There was so hint of romance between Downey Jr and Paltrow in any of the ads, and the whole film was sold on a ‘rich boys with expensive toys’ vibe.
The first post-Titanic case was of course, Armageddon. If you recall, that one had an ad campaign that suggested that the movie was primarily about the touching puppy-love romance between Liv Tyler and Ben Afflick (oh, and by the way, there’s a planet killing asteroid heading toward earth and Bruce Willis might help stop it). Even at the young age of 18, I remember being offended by the cynicism at work in the ads (‘hey look, we have young lovers and special effects – it’s EXACTLY like Titanic!’), and even more annoyed that it actually worked splendidly. Same shtick and same result with Pearl Harbor.
The Spider-Man films, especially 1 and 2, have always been sold as puppy-love romances first and comic book adventures second (you could argue that that’s an accurate description of the movies too, but I digress). I remember being very concerned about Batman Begins when the ads seemed to tell the narrative that Bruce Wayne was becoming Batman purely to prove himself to Rachel Dawes and win her affection (how ironic that Dawes in Batman Begins was the moral standard and not the love interest, but in Dark Knight she was regulated to being just the pawn in the love triangle).
Ironically, there has been somewhat of a turnaround of this trend in the last couple years. Call it nostalgia or just the pendulum swinging, but movies like Iron Man, 300, Casino Royale, and The Dark Knight have eschewed the ‘must appeal to young girls’ angle of ole. Perhaps marketers are remembering that while girls may eventually become women and end up marrying ‘nice decent guys’ like Tobey McGuire or Matt Damon, they go to the movies partially to fantasize about dreamy, manly assholes and damaged hunks like Robert Downey Jr, Gerald Butler and Daniel Craig and Christian Bale (he’s prettier than the other two, but he’s known for playing very ungentle souls).
Again, maybe too much of a generalization, maybe even… gasp… a statement of a trend from several offhand examples, but just my take on the subject.
David Poland,
You obviously know nothing about the international box office market, and please stop pretending you do, because it is simply ridiculous, and discredits you as a commentator. As I said before, TDK worldwide is tracking well, and I mean well ahead of Pirates 2 which again as I said was a much more front-loaded movie as far as release strategy. If you are in denial about TDK I can’t help you there…but please, I beg you, quite on the worldwide prospects, because in 3 weeks from now you are going to look like one of the biggest idiots imaginable.
Just stop.
Love,
Ethan
Scott, you make a good point about Iron Man – it was curious as to why they played down Gyneth Paltrow in the ads, especially since that element is a large, successful part of the movie. I wonder if it just had to do more with the fact that she had been thought of as box office poison – maybe, Paramount was stil smarting from Sky Captain.
I still think that guys like Downey, Bale, and Craig (remember, he’s short) are still a far cry from the action images of Arnold, Sly, Van Damme, etc. – these are still sensitive pretty males, for the most part, with some darkness mixed in. The “finding his conscience through romance” angle was a key part of the Casino Royale campaign.
I am really not sure where Gerard Butler falls, within this group – he seems pretty rugged, but even he did a cutesy turn in “P.S. I Love You” the same year as 300 – no way I could have seen Arnold pulling off that switch.
There is still appeal for manly men, out there, but I don’t think they are or will get the lions share of the big action role – McConnaghey and Vaungh fit the mold, but you notice when they go bigger budget, they are mostly in comedies? Actually, let’s face it – Vaughn is a natural comedian and it was going to be a mistake to put in a superhero movie, anyway.
It’s also the reason that the biggest hits for Vin Diesel and Dwayne Johnson have been kiddie comedies, in recent years.
For reference…Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest was released in every top 10 international market aside from Japan and after 4 weeks in its run had scored $703 million worldwide.
The Dark Knight has not been released in 6 out of 10 of the largest international marketplaces and is virtually guaranteed to pass Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($750 million ww) this weekend. Can polite BO observers please stop pretending they know anything about the worldwide market? It’s sad, and frankly it’s strange. Based on Pirates 2, this film is tracking at approx 1.25 billion worldwide. Not saying it will do that. But a billion is certainly likely.
The vaunted, apparently ejaculatory (on this blog at least) Sorcerer’s Stone was only at $650 million through a month worldwide while this film will likely stand $100 million ahead….uhhh….?
FRINGE Poland: you have to be kidding if you think THE DARK KNIGHT is not a freakin game-changer for the future of comic book films. This is now the TEMPLATE. If you want to make some pansy ass comic-book film. You will have the same problem Iron Man now faces in light of the DARK KNIGHT… it’s too weak.
This has changed the face of films you do not give TWO SHITS about in the least. So how the fuck would you know if it was a game-changer or not? When you are fucking pining away for a fucking “THIS IS NOT YOUR FAMILY, BUT IT IS YOUR FAMILY” film? Seriously, FRINGE LAMER of the EPIC FAIL variety.
I would not be so aggrevated with you. If you were not grasping for straws, and truly out of fucking touch with this PHENOMENON.
Everything you have posted has been wrong about this movie. Do you really thing you have any idea about how it will go in the future? Really?
You’re funny. You make me laugh.
IOIOIOIO, you always have to ratchet up the rhetoric, don’t you?
The Dark Knight is a game changes, no doubt – I have said and made the case.
But if you’re going to tell me that ANYTHING will be different about Iron Man 2, as a result, I would highly doubt it. When something works so well, you don’t try to mess with it.
Next year, we MIGHT see Fox try a slightly different, darker approach with the campaign for Wolverine, but I am not so sure.
Batman is Batman, Superman is Superman, Spiderman is Spiderman – these characters can only be changed so much.
I mean, Marvel is doing a Thor movie, right? I doubt that whomever takes that on will be able to morph the story into a dark, gritty crime drama.
Boy, I hope that the studio’s don’t learn from this that every heroic action movie now has to be grim and ultra-serious – it worked for The Dark Knight, but I still like some of these movies to just be fun.
IO, it may be the template, but do people really want an Iron Man sequel to be in the same vein as The Dark Knight? If anything, the best that will come out of it is that – hopefully – studios will refuse to hire the tired old Mark Steven Johnson type directors and might actually get someone with a) demonstrated talent and b) a love of the franchise/film/genre/etc. Although, considering they still hired those sorts after Sam Raimi (a respected director of much smaller films who many didn’t expect for such a big franchise) made Spider-Man, I can’t say I have much hope for that coming into effect. Darren Aronofsky has already been hired for Robocop, so there’s that.
But there wasn’t anything radical about the way it was marketed was there? It’s not like the makers of the next superhero movie (are there that many big name superheros left for the movie to influence, anyway?) are going to look at the way it was marketed and see much they can copy. Ledger’s death wasn’t exactly planned. The movie had a good trailer, yes, but apart from getting a good director, good actors and going for a more real world take, there’s not much to copy. Not like, say, T2 or JP or The Matrix, which had effects that “changed the game” or whatever.
On the issue of Pineapple Express, what was their reason for releasing it (and Travelling Pants 2 for that matter) on Wednesday. Was there a public holiday in America?
Wow. I was typing out that reply while doing about five other things and it took so long I missed Geoff’s similar reply. But, yeah, same points basically.
Pineapple Express was moved to Wednesday to avoid opening the same day as the opening ceremonies of the Olympics. It was also moved to Wednesday to put more space between PE and next Wednesday’s opening of Tropic Thunder.
Thanks!
Well movieman, I don’t think Mag deserves a slap, but she definitely deserves a spanking.
If you do not get how TDK changes things. You obviously are not pay attention. Good try but an epic fail. You have to be kidding if you think Justin Therioux is not looking at TDK and asking himself; “WHAT THE FUCK AM I GOING TO DO NOW?”
I mean, Geoff, light and fun are weak. You can have a sense of humour. It’s not like TKD is without it’s own twisted humour, but the days of Spidey crying 3 times in a movie should be over. This material should be treated with some respect. If not, then Edgar Wright better watch himself because you do not mess with SCOTT PILGRIM!
Nevertheless Camel, your post makes some good points, but it’s reaks of not GETTING these movies. I would wager that you might see them as being the same, but I cannot stress how much TDK blows every comic book film this century out of the water. It takes everything to another level.
If you hate it — not you KC but the general YOU — then you are missing out on a film that is literally a GAME CHANGER for an entire genre. After IRON MAN was already a GAME CHANGER two months earlier.
This is a brand new world to comic book films. Here’s to the studios not fucking it all up with bad choices and bad marketing campaigns.
Kung Fu Panda and Indiana Jones both have a real chance of outselling The Dark Knight.
What possible reason is there for Jones to outsell Dark Knight? The audience reception has cooled considerably. That translates to anywhere from a third to a fourth of potential sales disappearing.
Kung-Fu Panda? A bona fide home video hit, certainly, but still not enough recognition or even enough production copies made to equal Knight. I see you are working on the Porn & Kids angle, but that was for VHS. With DVD, a new market opened for blockbusters in general, and yes, the Dark Knight Blu-Ray will set records. The home theater market is just as expansive as ever.
And both will spend less marketing the DVD because WB is so agog with their success and overspend.
Warner Brothers is not Paramount / Dreamworks. They spend their marketing dollars wisely (although I’ve taken issue with their production budgets from time to time).
A movie will hit $500 million worldwide – and we are all assuming TDK will get there – again.
I was speaking domestic. Which I’ve contemplated can occur, what with theaters still being built and ticket inflation, but again, nothing promising so far.
I bow to Tofu and Ethan for keeping everything real in this thread. A thousand thank yous.
IO, you are dedicated, dude. I want you next to me in the trenches. You and Barry Pepper.
As a hater, I’ll even admit TDK has impressively captured the mood of the country in a way we seldom see these days. After 9-11, Iraq, Katrina and the financial meltdowns, the country is rightfully cynical about its heroes and leaders. And the movie reinforces that cynicism.
It spells out the big lesson of this decade… that heroes are just as much a problem as the bad guys. The “whatevs” that’s greeting this John Edwards business is the next sad example of that.
Again, I still don’t think it’s a story well told (and never really fun to watch), but it is perfectly timed to the zeitgeist. Add to that Ledger Legend, the word of mouth, the Batman cult and, most importantly, the sequel-to-a-well-liked-hit factor and you have a perfect storm.
But someone tell me again why the mayor was wearing mascara?
Ethan, my genius friend who knows everything about international box office while no one else knows anything, please explain how last weekend’s $38 million international box office extrapolated out to include Japan and South Korea this weekend and this weekend’s, say, $25 million domestic box office, leads to $115 million more Monday than it has Thursday.
If the two new international superpowers broke their national records, you’re still looking at $70 million or so worldwide this weekend, max. And that leaves France, Germany, Spain, and Russia to open in the next two weeks, right? So if it breaks records in all of those countries, you’re looking at another $300 million. So, what, $600m international total?
And if it doesn
“but I cannot stress how much TDK blows every comic book film this century out of the water.”
I can’t say I agree with you on that issue (I still like Spider-Man 2, Dick Tracy and Batman Returns more, but they’re my opinion), but what I’m saying is that the aesthetic (both visual and thematically) won’t work for every other superhero franchise. Especially for those that are already established. Transformers 2 or Spider-Man 4 or whatever other titles are going to suddenly turn into modern day Shakespearean tales of harsh realities and stark violence.
The Dark Knight had the advantage of having Begins sort of foretell the harsh grittiness that was to follow. I can see it effecting action movies in general, although as we’ve already established the likes of Michael Mann have already been doing these kinds of movies and didn’t need The Dark Knight to make it “cool”.
There are just some things you can’t put into the same mould as The Dark Knight.
IO, you need to GET over people not “GETTING” The Dark Knight. Difference of opinions. Three words you need to discover.
Australia is proving to be a power house for The Dark Knight. It will soon become the #1 movie of all-time there in American dollars, and likely the seventh highest in Australian dollars. Makes up a bit for the slight softness from the UK.
KC: there are ways to be polite about disliking something. If you — again the GENERAL YOU — are going to be a dick about it like Poland has been towards TDK. You do not get respectful discourse. You got slammed. Again; that’s the general you, but the point stands. I have a problem with people being a dick about things. I am not stating that I am immune but let’s just state that if this were my blog. I would have not spent the last 4 weekends trying to prove how RIGHT I AM when I have been very very wrong.
Crow: thanks I guess, but it all comes from years of extensive childhood abusive. It was hard to take me down then, and it’s even harder now.
Back to KC: I am not stating that comic book films have to take the whole DARK template from TDK but a slightly better tone would be better in films where circumstances are always dire. If Iron Man is going to face someone like the Mandarian. Who apparently has a big operation going in that world. There has to be some esculation in tone.
That’s all I am stating. These flicks need to step it up a notch because TDK will always be looming in a lot of mind’s. That’s what a game-changer does: it changes the game for everything. Nolan and Co. have just thrown their wad on the table. Let’s see what Marvel does in return.
“But someone tell me again why the mayor was wearing mascara?”
Because it was Nestor Carbonell. To quote Commissioner Gordon out of context…”He does that.”
People like their Batman dark. And they may want their Iron Man a little dark. But when they get their Watchmen they’re going to want to wash their mouth out. I don’t think Nolan and company can top TDK so I don’t know how anyone else will.
Just an observation:
IO talks about TDK changing the market for _a genre_. Poland (and others) talk about TDK not changing _the market_ period.
Obviously comic book films are important in today’s market, but still it’s not quite the same discussion.
Tofu, Dark Knight currently has $34mil (the equivelent of having grossed $340mil in America), but needs another $23mil to top Titanic‘s $57.6mil as the highest of all time. Not sure it can do that. Also not sure how you’re figuring how a movie can be #1 of all time in American dollars and only #7 in Australian. They’d still be the same positions, just different totals, no?
“Of course I’m not consistent, Citizen R… I don’t know… you don’t know… no one knows. All of these are possibilities. I am trying to keep open and the number probably has a $100 million range of possibility.”
Saying you don’t know and that you’re keeping open a wide range of possibilities would be all well and good and perfectly logical. But saying that $914 million is “very, very unlikely” and then saying that $900 million is “very possible” doesn’t fall within that rubric. It’s simply contradictory.
Poland – there were nine other opening weekends that would have beaten TDK’s third week… Hellboy 2, Get Smart, and The Mummy 3 are the only opening weekend winners that would not have stopped the TDK run at 2.
Only Wall-E, Indy and Hancock would have maintained high enough numbers to beat TDK. WOM on IM after TDK would have stumped it on Friday and most likely left it fighting for second. Inc. Hulk would have never hit 50. So unless you had an established brand of some type, TDK was going to roll over everything.
This was the argument I made two months ago about Hancock’s release date. They would have been better off following TDK then Marvel as it would have been a more natural progression for the audience and an easy storyline for critics. Instead, Smith loses some goodwill.
Poland – Kids & Porn drive technology
Kids, yes, but as video killed the radio star, the internet took out the porn industry. It’s a shell of what it was during the 90’s DVD boom and was never near the billion dollar industry claimed unless factoring in every possible T&A from all mediums, including SI Swimsuit and Victoria Secret nonsense. HD is only an upgrade, not a new format, and really not applicable to the “back catalog” of smut because they’ve always shot on the cheapest format possible. They can’t adapt to game systems because that would be prostitution. So it moves online and will become the STD of the web and mobile content.
Geoff – Wouldn’t it make sense for history to repeat itself with The Dark Knight and Blu-Ray?
How many VCR’s were owned by 1990? How many people have Blu-Ray now, and the television to showcase the difference?
Geoff – I still think that guys like Downey, Bale, and Craig (remember, he’s short) are still a far cry from the action images of Arnold, Sly, Van Damme, etc. – these are still sensitive pretty males…
I was with you until there. The Ganymede’s are Leo, Gyllenhall and now LeBeef. Bale, Craig and Downey look like Arnold, Bruce and Sly compared to them.
IO – This is now the TEMPLATE.
I get what you’re saying – TDK removes the unseriousness and makes guys like Peter Bart sound like asses when they try and downplay its drama.
But besides a shift in approach, it’s a change effecting marketing and merchandising. That is a massive overhaul of the business model which I don’t see happening on an industry-wide scale.
Look at Hancock. That was as radical a turn as TDK. But without Smith, what happens? Does a rip-off of Luke Cage even clear a hundred million?
The answer comes with Watchmen. No stars. The embodiment of serious superheroes. Not a sequel. Not a brand outside of the fanboyverse. Limited merchandising appeal. And to make things worse, now has to follow TDK, negating the “realism” marketing angle.
Dave, again the danger of over-relying on boxofficemojo is apparent here. They have not factored in any international weekday numbers period….so you’re really questioning whether the film can do about $105 million worldwide in 7 days, not 3. Maybe it can’t….but if it doesn’t come to at least $735 million or $740 million it would be surprising.
The wild card here is the Olympics internationally. They don’t matter here, but I have no idea how they affect international BO.
If it does $600 million international then it breaks $1 billion…..and Dave, you know you don’t have to play “full on retard,” it never works š
Also not sure how you’re figuring how a movie can be #1 of all time in American dollars and only #7 in Australian.
It has never been an exact exchange rate, so there are two top ten lists for Australia:
All Time Top 10 (Australian Dollars)
1. Titanic – 57.6m
2. Shrek 2 – 50.3m
3. LOTR: Return of the King – 49.4m
4. Crocodile Dundee – 47.7m
5. LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring – 47.3m
6. LOTR: The Two Towers – 45.6m
7. Harry Potter and Philosophers Stone – 42.3m
8. Star Wars: Episode I – 38.8m
9. Pirates: Dead Man’s Chest – 38.1m
10. Finding Nemo – 37.4m
All Time Top 10 Films (in US Dollars)
1. Crocodile Dundee – 39.7m
2. Titanic – 38.1m
3. LOTR: Return of the King – 36.6m
4. Shrek 2 – 35.5m
5. The Dark Knight 30.9m
6. Harry Potter and Order of the Phoenix – 29.8m
7. Pirates: At World’s End – 29.1m
8. Shrek the Third – 28.7m
9. Pirates: Dead Man’s Chest – 28.3m
10. E.T. – 28.2m
Pretty wild, huh? These are from last Thursday, and Dark Knight is about to break into the AUS Top 10.
Was Titanic a game changer? i think the only thing it changes was the ease of which a studio would spend or overspend. but as far as anything else did it really change the game? a phenomenon is not always a game changer. and dave they will never let it go that you underestimated TDK…but everyone did. there was only one guy on this blog that kept shouting about TDK “owning” everything…three guesses who. but i spent almost all of my saturday yesterday reading old hot buttons and you’ve gotten more right then wrong over the last 10 years. and i remember the Pirates craziness, but when a year later it all goes away it does leave you a little dry. next year when Transformers 2 breaks everything we’ll all be right back here yelling and screaming at you allllll over again.
Preliminary numbers have “The Dark Knight” at #1 for a fourth week.
WB has Legendary Pictures co-financing the DC Comics stuff for good reason. “Titanic” went way over budget at Fox, thus Paramount chipped in production coin of its own.
Keoki: I am not Lex, and I am the one who stated this would be the Summer of the BAT. You also have to realize that ROTF (Revenge of the Fallen) may open during the week again. Which would eliminate it’s chances at breaking this record. Heck, I would even go as far to wager that the flick would not beat this record it’s opening weekend. Unless it did stop mad screen-counts to do it.
Nevertheless, you should really not underestimate the power of the Olympics in this country Ethan. Many of the key events happening during primetime will lead to a top 20 in coming weeks featuring a lot of Olympics programming. How it effects the rest of the world may be the same.
Just for the record, Keoki, I am not holding it against Dave that he underestimated this movie – my guesses at its box office were probably about the same as his was. And when he was off about Transformers and Iron Man, my predictions were right there with his – sorry, who the hell thought Iron Man would do $300 million? No one.
My issue has been all of the side stuff – yeah, the enthusiasm had to fizzle a bit less than a year after Pirate’s record and it already fell. But honestly, Spiderman breaking the next record was not THAT tough to predict. Hell, that release date was set two years in advance – when Spidey 3 finally did open, last May, and did its $150 million, I know to me, it felt kind of anticlimactic
But who could have predicted that TDK would have grossed on this level? Completely out of the blue – the film will more than double its predecessor. I don’t care if previous Batmans set opening weekend records, before – how many mega-franchises actually DOUBLE their predecessor’s grosses?
I can see Transformers actually breaking the opening weekend record, next year, especially since July looks pretty light – I’ll say it NOW, Transformers will break the record and do $170 million opening weekend. Fine, it will happen – and then watch how many of us are groaning.
The opening weekend record could fall next year or it could stand for a few years. It’s hard to say. There are films on the horizon that certainly have the potential to break the record, but nothing that I’d say is a slam dunk to do so.
Geoff–as of right now, Transformers is slated to open Wednesday.
Crow T
“After 9-11, Iraq, Katrina and the financial meltdowns, the country is rightfully cynical about its heroes and leaders. And the movie reinforces that cynicism.
It spells out the big lesson of this decade… that heroes are just as much a problem as the bad guys.”
Gosh golly gee willickers! What movie did you see?
Do you really believe that? That people are flocking to TDK because it verifies in their mind that Batman is no better than the Joker. Silliness. I know some people are upset over conservative pundits endorsing and enjoying the film but the notion that Batman and the Joker are morally equivalent is not supported by the film’s text at all. Do you really think Warner Bros. would release that film?
TDK verifies the exact opposite. That there are real and distinct differences between the Batman and the Joker and that even though Batman must resort to some “off” tactics in the film, he is definitely different and better than the Joker. By the end, the citizens of Gotham are cynical about Batman but the film is not. The film shows quite clearly that Batman is a hero – a giant of a hero at that. Remember, we as an audience are given info the citizens of Gotham do not have. We know what the Joker did and was capable of. We know Batman was right.
Far from being a cynical film, the zeitgeist this is tapping into is one of redemption and hope. No nihilism in The Dark Knight. Quite the opposite. It lets people know that there are heroes and sometimes the individual who is the hero is not the one who is on the cover of the latest issue of Rolling Stone with a smug grin on his face…it is the guy in the shadows doing the hard or dirty work that no one wants to do.
As Alfred says, it is the one who makes the tough decisions that no one wants to make, the one who has to endure.
That is what people are responding to in TDK. It’s hope. That you can win…at a price to be sure…but you can win. That is its complexity.
If this film is cynical about anything it is the mechanizations of culture that do not let real heroes get their due and the people who do not want to see who the real heroes are.
Cynical heroes do not gross half a billion domestic. That’s just not how it works.
From Variety –
SEOUL — Following its domination of the U.S. box office for four weeks, “The Dark Knight” topped the Korean box office in its opening frame last weekend.
The Batman pic has made $6.9 million on 1.09 million admissions since its release on Aug. 6 at 576 screens. This is the highest box office record among Batman series released in Korea, beating the previous record holder “Batman Begins” that attracted 980,000 audiences in its opening frame.
However, even Batman has not been able to keep up with the pace of “The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.”
Last weekend “The Mummy” ranked at No.2 with 448,000 admissions in three days, taking its cume to $20 million from 3.19 million admissions. It passed the 3 million ticket sales mark in 11 days, the fastest performance for a foreign movie in Korea this year.
So… are we not supposed to connect DP’s current desperation to downplay TDK’s success with the fact that he grossly, hugely underestimated its success beforehand?
Are we supposed to pretend one doesn’t have to do with another? DP will fight to the ends of the earth not to admit when he’s wrong, and if TDK grossed three billion worldwide, he’d have a way to spin it so that it doesn’t deserve the “hype”.