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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady – B3

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Trying to deconstruct Batman numbers is hard because estimates of Friday and Saturday and Sunday are all over the place. Klady’s Friday estimate and his weekend estimate are higher than some others. But the Saturday rise in some estimates are oddly large and the Sunday drop too steep. Klady’s number is less than a million from the biggest third weekend in history… are we being set up for a “final” that goes up by that million… another record taken?
Don’t know. And it doesn’t really matter.
Universal’s less on The Mummy 3 is probably that they shoudln’t ave shown it to anyone… ever…. or at least before release. Critics, in the one way we can matter, were nearly unanimous. The movie opened well on Friday anyway. But a Saturday drop suggests that the movie missed an especially strong showing in a core constituency; families. (Edit, 2:45p – into English)
Call it The Speed Racer Effect – little kids really, really, really want to see a movie but their parents decide that they would really rather not spend the time and go see something else. And that something else may have been The Dark Knight.
And how about this theory, which is thrown around often about movies that open soft… did geeks who are all abuzz with the TDK excitement buy a ticket for Dark Knight and go see The Mummy instead?
I actually don’t think so. But I also think it’s a kind of funny idea.
Anyway…
The strongest wide-release holds were Mamma Mia!, Wall-E, Journey to The Center of The Earth… two for the kids, one for the cultists.
Indiana Jones IV fell behnd Iron Man, both in weekend gross and in theater count for the first time since release, pretty much assuring Indy staying just behind Iron Man in summer gross. Ironically, it is in Paramount’s best interest to push Indy, since it gets a higher percentage of the gross. It also doesn’t have a campaign for the DVD release already going full steam ahead. But what better way to give the finger to Steven Spielberg… the only control Par has left after making their overly generous deal so many years ago?

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46 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady – B3”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    So Swing Vote will post an opening-weekend gross only $1 million higher than that of Meet Dave? Oh, dear.

  2. Blackcloud says:

    All the girls were staying home reading the last vampire book, right?

  3. Tofu says:

    Don’t know. And it doesn’t really matter.
    Sure is fun as hell to watch though.
    did geeks who are all abuzz with the TDK excitement buy a ticket for Dark Knight and go see The Mummy instead?
    I’m not seeing any online talk of anyone doing this. Even if true, I doubt it would make a even a difference of $50,000.
    But what better way to give the finger to Steven Spielberg…
    This doesn’t sound like long-term thinking, but then again, few businesses think in the long-term.
    All the girls were staying home reading the last vampire book, right?
    Two $40 million grossers, plus Wall-E & Mamma Mia dropped 31% or less. They came out as normal.

  4. Blackcloud says:

    Tofu, I was being facetious.

  5. Tofu says:

    Where did all of this groundswell for that series come from, anyways? It was totally off everyone’s map until Comic-Con.

  6. LexG says:

    THE GROUNDSWELL COMES FROM THE FACT THAT KRISTEN STEWART IS THE STAR OF THE MILLENNIUM AND COMPLETELY OWNS.
    KRISTEN STEWART should be Hollywood’s newest member of the $25 MILLION CLUB and will be the distaff version of LEO 1997 in terms of AUDIENCE MANIA when TWILIGHT drops.

  7. Blackcloud says:

    Maybe not, given that fans seem to loathe the new book. And loathing is probably being mild, if the Amazon reviews are a proper gauge.
    As for the groundswell, Tofu, there isn’t one. It’s a creation of lazy journalists who treat any popular book either as “The Next Harry Potter” if it’s aimed at kids, or as “The Next Da Vinci Code” if it’s for adults.

  8. Geoff says:

    Dave,
    You answered my question before I answered it – what’s Paramount doing about the Iron Man/Indy numbers, which they are totally in a position to manipulate, at this point?
    Still have another question, that no one has answered, yet? And you’re so inside baseball, you would know:
    What was the deal with Universal, this summer, bunching all those films together – Hulk, Wanted, Hellboy – they really cannabalized each other. Which one did UIniversal stand to make the most from? I am gathering Wanted.

  9. brack says:

    “But a Saturday drop suggests that the from missed an especially strong showing in a core constituency; families. Call it The Speed Racer Effect – little kids really, really, really want to see a movie but their parents decide that they would really rather not spend the time and go see something else. And that something else may have been The Dark Knight.”
    C’mon David, this is hardly a “Speed Racer Effect.” For one, it actually OPENED.

  10. Tofu says:

    As for the groundswell, Tofu, there isn’t one.
    10 million copies sold in the publishing industry isn’t the next Harry Potter, but women were asking for the book this weekend as I made my monthly trek to the bookstore.

  11. Reynoldz says:

    TWILIGHT may not have been on your radar until Comic-Con, but then, you are probably not the target audience. There isn’t a sudden groudswell; the popularity of the series has been building over the last couple years through high school girl word-of-mouth. As a high school teacher and the manager of a bookstore, I can tell you that the book’s popularity isn’t a creation of lazy journalists. The majority of the girls in every class I teach have read and love the series. The movie may not have giant crossover appeal, but the book, with the exception of Potter, is the most popular book in the last two years.

  12. Blackcloud says:

    10 million sold isn’t a groundswell. As Reynoldz says, it’s been popular for a while. It’s the media who have suddenly glommed onto it because they just noticed the books exist. They were making up for lost time, since the fourth one is the last one. As for making a movie out of it, no groundswell there, either. What exec wouldn’t want to make a movie out of a book that popular? I’m not denying the books’ popularity. I am criticizing the way it’s been portrayed in the media, as though it came out of nowhere. Maybe for them it did, but certainly not for the readers.

  13. Bart Smith says:

    “And how about this theory, which is thrown around often about movies that open soft… did geeks who are all abuzz with the TDK excitement buy a ticket for Dark Knight and go see The Mummy instead?
    I actually don’t think so. But I also think it’s a kind of funny idea.”

    Back when I worked at a movie theatre–it was the summer of 1999 and LucasFilm’s ridiculous contractual demands stipulated that the new Star Wars movie must play for 16+ weeks or something ridiculous–we had a guy that would come in every weekend, buy a PHANTOM MENACE ticket, and sneak into another movie instead. For some reason, he had gotten the idea that the dozen or so tickets he bought would somehow be enough to push THE PHANTOM MENACE over TITANIC’s record.
    Eventually the manager busted him for something else (most likely bothering other customers) which brought the issue up for discussion. Long story short, he was banned from the theatre. As the manager escorted him out of the building, the guy was shouting “TITANIC! TITANIC! TITANIC!” in a manner very much reminiscent of Sonny’s “Attica!” chant in DOG DAY AFTERNOON. Unfortunately, I doubt that he would have understood that reference.

  14. Joe Leydon says:

    Hot damn! Astros sweep the Mets for the first time since ’93! Cowabunga!
    And now we return to our regularly scheduled movie discussion….

  15. Tofu says:

    The Titanic versus Phantom Menace duel was adorable. IGN.com ran a barometer between the two for a month or two. Entire conspiracy theories were created, with numerous internet posters claiming their Star Wars ticket was printed out for another movie instead. I even think Lucafilm kicked around the idea of specialty tickets specifically for Star Wars so they could have the most accurate ticket count.

  16. David Poland says:

    Brack… you completely missed the point… seemingly because you were reading the titles and not thinking about the idea. I will simplify…
    The Speed Racer Effect – Selling a movie to 4 quadrants and missing a critical segment, kids under 12.

  17. tfresca says:

    I read Twilight recently and I can’t imagine a more vapid book. THe girl falls in love with an undead vampire who is 56 times her age because he’s hot and all pale.

  18. Bart Smith says:

    “The Titanic versus Phantom Menace duel was adorable.”

    Especially considering how bad THE PHANTOM MENACE is. If it had managed to knock off TITANIC, it would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.

  19. IOIOIOI says:

    Fresca: it’s Buffy boiled down to it’s core. That’s why I have no reason to ever get into Twilight especially when Angel and Buffy are still going on in their own way.
    Oh yeah, let me put it to you this way, THE DARK KNIGHT IS A PHENOM! HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH!

  20. jeffmcm says:

    Blah blah blah 18-year old boner boner boner.

  21. IOIOIOI says:

    Jeff: PHENOMENON. Choke on it, potzer.

  22. “or as “The Next Da Vinci Code” if it’s for adults.”
    You say this as if The Da Vince Code was actually aimed at adults.
    Funnily enough I remember reading about that Phantom Menace wrong ticketing fiasco thing. Strange world.

  23. Oh, and these drops for Wall-E sort of confirm that it was hit by Kung Fu Panda, right? It’s drops have been smaller and smaller these last few weeks, but a little too late for it to have a big impact.
    Those holds for Mamma Mia! – i’m surprised it’s holding up better than Hairspray did last year – and Journey to the Center of the Earth has nearly overtaken Beowulf.

  24. Blackcloud says:

    Oh, it was aimed at adults alright. Whether it was written at a level for them is entirely another matter. Personally, I’d argue that the level of maturity of the latter Harry Potter easily exceeds that of Da Vinci Code.

  25. IOIOIOI says:

    I second that Black, and I second Camel’s assertion that Kung-Fu Panda did not help Wall-E out in the least.

  26. Blackcloud says:

    I liked Wall*E better, but the Panda is probably more multiple-viewing friendly.
    As for Da Vinci Code, isn’t there supposed to be a sequel? I don’t mean the next movie. The next book is way overdue, I believe.

  27. jeffmcm says:

    IOI, what I wrote had nothing to do with you – and I’m not even sure how you made that conclusion-jump.

  28. doug r says:

    Wow Iron Man is pulling in per screen between WALL-E and X-Files, two movies that opened a month and two months after it….
    From the director of Elf and Zathura….

  29. Space Chimps > The X-Files
    I just thought I’d throw that out there. I haven’t seen either so I can’t comment whether that’s right in terms of quality, but… really… ouch.

  30. IOIOIOI says:

    Jeff: I am sorry but I usually jump at the chance to use “CHOKE ON IT” and “POTZER” in the same sentence. It’s a reflex.
    Cloud: the next movie happens to be a prequel, and Dan Brown’s next book is dragging more ass than a stock car with a broken splitter.

  31. brack says:

    “Brack… you completely missed the point… seemingly because you were reading the titles and not thinking about the idea. I will simplify…
    The Speed Racer Effect – Selling a movie to 4 quadrants and missing a critical segment, kids under 12.”
    Well David, for missing such a critical segment, it still managed a very decent opening, especially for a third movie in a series that I thought no one cared about anymore.

  32. brack says:

    Oh, and if you look globally, The Mummy made $102m. Not too shabby.

  33. IOIOIOI says:

    People wanted another Mummy film. What they got were fist-pumping yetis. Seriously Cohen… what the hell is that about?

  34. EDouglas says:

    “did geeks who are all abuzz with the TDK excitement buy a ticket for Dark Knight and go see The Mummy instead?”
    Really don’t know why anyone would do that but I can definitely see a lot of teens buying tickets to TDK and sneaking into Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder.

  35. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Not in NYC. Whoever plays those 2 movies will have ushers checking tickets at the auditorium entrance.
    On a more serious note, Variety hinted that “The Dark Knight” will wrap its US theatrical run around $500M. That leaves the Caped Crusader $100M short of “Titanic”. Front-loading indeed!

  36. Roman says:

    “Indiana Jones IV fell behnd Iron Man, both in weekend gross and in theater count for the first time since release, pretty much assuring Indy staying just behind Iron Man in summer gross.”
    Hold the Horses!
    David, don’t tell me you didn’t expect this to happen? Paramount gives this kind of theater boost to every one of their major movies right around the same time (for a typical example see Transformers) and most often then not it actually pays off. But there’s absolutely nothing unique about “Iron Man” and no fingers are involved.
    Please don’t tell me you don’t understand the same kind of boost will be given to Indy in two weeks or so.

  37. movieman says:

    From the “Be grateful for small favors” department:
    Warners is planning to ship “Scooby Doo 3” directly to home video, bypassing the theatrical market entirely.
    That’s a relief!
    Now I have an excuse to skip it.

  38. IOIOIOI says:

    Woo! BULLET DODGED!

  39. Tofu says:

    Front-loading indeed!
    Heh, if only every blockbuster could score a 3.2x multiplier from a $158 million opening.
    So yeah, $500 million has been charted out since before even its second weekend landed. Dark Knight is eerily matching the percentages of Dead Man’s Chest, day by day, but with millions more loaded on.

  40. IOIOIOI says:

    It seems fitting to me that a Batman film is right up there in terms of domestic box office. It seems right to me for some reason.

  41. jeffmcm says:

    Of course it does.

  42. Joe Leydon says:

    IO: Of course it’s proper. Batman is the very embodiment of the American Success Story. He wasn’t born a super hero. He didn’t have super powers handed to him. He re-invented himself, and turned himself into a super hero. To quote Gig Young from They Shoot Horses, Don’t They — And isn’t that the American way?
    Remember: If The Dark Knight doesn’t wind up outgrossing Titanic — then the terrorists have won.

  43. jeffmcm says:

    Their victory is imminent.

  44. BrandonS says:

    “Paramount gives this kind of theater boost to every one of their major movies right around the same time (for a typical example see Transformers) and most often then not it actually pays off. But there’s absolutely nothing unique about “Iron Man” and no fingers are involved.
    Please don’t tell me you don’t understand the same kind of boost will be given to Indy in two weeks or so.”
    Isn’t that bump the second-run “dollar theater” release? I know they’ve been pretty much eliminated in L.A., and I’m sure if NYC ever had any they’re dead by now, but there are still plenty of cities with cheap theaters. Back when we used to have a handful in L.A., you’d see last season’s blockbuster showing up at them all in the same week, so I assume there’s some studio control over second-run release dates.
    So yes, I’d imagine you’ll be seeing that same bump from Indy soon.

  45. The Big Perm says:

    I miss the dollar theaters. We would go when there was nothing better to do and I saw a lot of shit I wouldn’t have paid normal prices for that turned out to be great, like Breakdown. Of course I also saw Sliver and the remake of The Haunting. Win some lose some.

  46. Cadavra says:

    Me, too, though in my case it was more of a last chance to catch something I’d missed in first-run for one reason or another. (I particularly liked Pacific’s 10-plex in Northridge.) Now, once a picture’s gone, it’s gone (unless it’s a serious Oscar contender), and the chances of seeing it again in a theatre are practically nil.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4