By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Best Picture
BEST PICTURE
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Picture
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Studio
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Director
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Stars |
Comment
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The Frontrunners (in alphabetical order) | |||||
Dec 19
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The Curious Case of Benjamin Button |
Par
|
Fincher
|
Pitt
|
Long & gauzy, but one of the great young filmmakers in the world with a classic tale… could be a better Gump or another Joe Black… or in between |
Nov 19 | Slumdog Millionaire |
FxSch
|
Boyle
|
The feel good, underdog movie of the season. If anyone can get Academy members to see it, it’s Searchlight… boding well in a narrow season | |
Dec 12
|
Doubt |
Mir
|
Shanley
|
Streep
PS Hoffman |
A movie about the power of lies, whether true or not… a McCain upset pushes this one to the top of the pile… an Obama win and… we’ll see |
Dec 5
|
Frost/Nixon |
U
|
Howard
|
Langella
Sheen |
Very solid piece, but how Nixon feels for audiences in the US may well depend on how they feel about the election results |
Nov 26
|
Milk |
Focus
|
Van Sant
|
Penn
Brolin |
People forget that when Van Sant works straight, he is a top mainstream filmmaker. Add that assuption of quality to a compelling story and a strong gay constituency in The Academy and it looks like a strong player. |
Nov 14
|
Australia |
Fox
|
Luhrmann
|
Kidman
Jackman |
Right there in the starting gate… Baz can deliver romance like no other… but will this be enough like “other” for Academy to embrace it? |
Dec
|
Gran Torino |
WB
|
Eastwood
|
Eastwood
|
Seems like a solid fit… we won’t know until Clint tells us |
Dec 26
|
Revolutionary Road |
ParV
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Mendes
|
Winslet
DiCaprio |
Personal dramas need to be more than very good to stick… but being apolitical may be a blessing this season |
Summer | The Dark Knight |
WB
|
Nolan
|
Ledger
|
The mega-money movie that Academy leadership would love to see as ratings bait (however flawed that thinking) and which older Academy are lukewarm about |
Oct 17
|
W. |
LGF
|
Stone
|
Brolin
Burstyn |
Not a lot of “experts” see this one as a serious player… but all it has to be is brilliant and it moves to the top of the charts. And why asume that Stone isn’t up to it? If he pulls it off, the rarest of successes… a real-time political biopic. |
And The Films O’ Potential | |||||
Spring | The Visitor |
Ov
|
McCarthy
|
Jenkins
|
Really well loved by older viewers… but can a new distribution company fight the fight? |
Oct 3
|
Rachel Getting Married |
SPC
|
Demme
|
Hathaway
Winger DeWitt |
A wonderful Altmanesque film that challenges some audiences. A tough get in a season of quirky films. |
Oct 10
|
Body of Lies |
WB
|
Scott
|
DiCaprio
Crowe |
Looking d.o.a. |
Oct 10 | Happy Go Lucky |
Mir
|
Leigh
|
Hawkins
|
Solid, sweet Mike Leigh… but probably not enough muscle for anything but an acting nod |
Oct 24
|
Changeling |
U
|
Eastwood
|
Jolie
|
I haven’t personally seen it. Those who did, in Cannes, don’t seem to feel it is an Oscar player, aside from acting. |
Nov 11
|
The Road |
TWC/
MGM |
Hillcoat
|
Theron
Mortensen |
Dark, dark, dark… Hillcoat is a genius.. but can it click? |
Nov 21
|
The Soloist |
DW
|
Wright
|
Downey, Jr
Foxx |
My teeth are rotting just thinking about it. |
Dec | Che |
IFC
|
Soderbergh
|
Del Toro
|
Brilliant and truly epic… but can IFC afford to shove it into the race? Probably not. Would help to have a giant, one-of-a-kind event for the film in Los Angeles or NY. |
Dec 12
|
Defiance |
ParV
|
Zwick
|
Craig
|
Lots of movies “about something” this year. Between the classic Zwick 3rd Act Flop and a parade of depth, will this one stand out? |
Dec 12
|
Seven Pounds |
Sony
|
Muccino
|
Smith
|
Has potential as a major surprise. Smith was nominated for his last Muccino film and the power of hope might make a comeback. |
Dec 19 | The Wrestler |
FxSch
|
Aronofsky
|
Rourke
|
Strong indie film… all about IFPs… not getting a BP nod should not be dissapointing… will be one of the best of the year in the end, no matter what the awards positioning. |
? | The Reader |
TWC
|
Daldry
|
Winslet
Fiennes |
The problem with Harvey Weinstein shoving this in is that it will be very hard to overcome the lack of support from Mrs. Mendes and a late start. |