The films will start landing in earnest in about two weeks, and between October 28 and November 21, most of the answers of what the season will really be will be answered.
But until then, the dance of Oscar is complicated by two major elements. First, the election is definitely making people nervous. They don
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20 Weeks To Oscar: Rush To Poor Judgment?
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
Poland, why shouldn’t Ledger win? Shouldn’t? It’s just hard to see what the better performance will be…
The field has narrowed so much over the last few weeks already, with Body of Lies, Changeling and W flaring out, that I think there still might be a few dark horses waiting in the wings, “Iwo Jima” style. Last Chance Harvey? Nothing But the Truth? Winged Creatures?? Shanghai??? The Hurt Locker??? Sunshine Cleaning???
MARGARET??? (I wish)
DEFIANCE?
Trailer is pretty solid, Craig will benefit from post-Quantum prestige flick, WWII subject matter, and Zwick, who manages to rack up sizeable amounts of noms for his trademark “message action” stuff, even the mainstream-skewing “Samurai” and “Blood Diamond.”
I do think that Zwick’s “Defiance” could be the quiet powerhouse no one expects. I spoke with a person who saw it’s rough cut at a screening and he claims that the movie is extremely solid. I believe that “Defiance” will only benefit from being much better than people are expecting from it and the fact that the bloggers paid little attention to it up until know won’t matter to the actual voters.
Did he really put Kristen Stewart as a possible contender for a nomination?
Lex, I believe this is where you come in.
FUCK YEAH ACADEMY VOTERS RECOGNIZE THE STEW!
What would you rather see, MERYL STREEP’S 100-YEAR-OLD ASS IN A FUCKING BONNET dressed like AGNES OF GOD and making STUPID FACES… or K-STEW OWNING FUCKING VAMPIRES and being SOULFUL and INQUISITIVE and SENSTIVE yet STRONG and INDEPENDENT and AWWWWWESOME. And sometimes apparently WEARING A BASEBALL HAT FOR NO REASON.
LANA TURNER + BARBARA STANWYK + JEAN HARLOW – KATHERINE HEPBURN x AUDREY HEPBURN + SCARLETT JOHANSSON x ANGELINA JOLIE + MARLON BRANDO = KRISTEN STEWART.
The Kodak Theater will get on their knees AND BOW when the MOST ELECTRIFYING SCREEN PRESENCE SINCE JAMES DEAN celebrates the cherry on top of TWILIGHT’S inevitable 1.25 BILLION BOX OFFICE TOTAL by being crowned BEST ACTRESS on Hollywood’s biggest night.
HAVE NO DOUBT.
Go with the Bat. Go with greatness. Go away from the Bat. Prepare for low ratings, no one giving a crap, and another generation not getting hooked on the Oscars.
Hey Dave, why do you have “Seven Pounds” listed, but no Will Smit in the best actor? If the movie makes it, he’s gonna get it, though I don’t see it happening for the film or the actor. The year’s too tough.
I know D-Po is going to downplay the Bat as long as possible, but noticed NOLAN was entirely missing from the director chart?
After Ledger, isn’t Nolan’s DIRECTOR NOD the next closest sure thing from the Bat?
I can TOTALLY see Nolan making the cut as the fifth director even if the film isn’t nominated, and inching out whoever the least “cinematic” is of the five BP directors.
Thanks for the charts. I love seeing all the early promise. It would really be great if you listed the screenwriters next to their films on the writing charts. They get such little credit as it is.
I predict Best Actress is Winslet. Actor DiCaprio. Supporting Actress is Amy Adams.
Supporting Actor…it’ll be between Hoffman and Ledger.. last time Hoffman won, this time….
(insert joker laugh)
It looks like Defiance and The Soloist are out of the picture. I apologize beforehand for linking to the Evil One.
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/paramount-delaying-2-oscar-buzzed-movies/
Wow, that’s disappointing; I thought “Defiance” looked awesome.
Now it’s going to go head-to-head with another WWII movie, “Valkyrie.” This is bad for both of those.
Never mind, Defiance is still in the picture. It’ll still have a qualifying run. She published the story without having the facts straight and edited it after the fact. Serves me right for linking to the Evil One.
God, for once I have to admit LexG has a point.
Oh, and that’s a funky alphabetical order.
That’s a shame about The Soloist. Now, if the Academy wants to recognize Robert Downey Jr this year, they’ll have to actually use the popular mainstream entertainment that everyone saw and most loved. I didn’t like Iron Man anymore than Dave (I watched it again yesterday, nothing changed), but his performance was the only thing that separated it from The Incredible Hulk, and a truly strong movie-star performance. The Soloist was the best chance for the Academy to have their cake and eat it too. If Paramount really thinks they have a better shot at supporting for Tropic Thunder, well, that’s their problem (a movie I disliked even more than DP). We’ll see…
At least Dark Knight is on the list.
Missing are: Nolan for Director for Dark Knight, Stiller for Director for Tropic Thunder, Robert Downey Jr for Best Actor for Tropic Thunder.
“If Paramount really thinks they have a better shot at supporting for Tropic Thunder, well, that’s their problem (a movie I disliked even more than DP). We’ll see…”
Does anyone think that they think that? Boy, that’s one wrong way to read the situation.
But hey, maybe they want to stick it to DW ;)…
“Missing are: Nolan for Director for Dark Knight, Stiller for Director for Tropic Thunder, Robert Downey Jr for Best Actor for Tropic Thunder.”
The first one’s not happening. Sorry. The other two weren’t even serious.
From the Finke article that started this whole thing:
“But Paramount instead will be pushing the actor for Tropic Thunder consideration.”
Who’s to say if it’s true, but I was simply saying it was a dumb call if it was. They have an outside chance with Iron Man, ala Johnny Depp for Curse Of The Black Pearl. They have no chance in hell for Tropic Thunder. If I were Downey, I’d be pissed at the move, since a serious drama like The Soloist all but guaranteed an Oscar nom for the actor, as he’s had a hell of a year.
“From the Finke article that started this whole thing:
I took that statement as one of Finke’s personal opinions on the matter. The only way I see Paramount goint to any length to promote that performance is to appease Downey for the Soloist shaft.
I may well be wrong on this though.
“If I were Downey, I’d be pissed at the move, since a serious drama like The Soloist all but guaranteed an Oscar nom for the actor, as he’s had a hell of a year.”
You mean he had a helluva film (strictly in terms of it’s box office).
And again the sense of entitlement for Downey. But it only goes to show that a lot of people are seing the film as awards bait for both Downey and Foxx (let’s not forget him) who is probably more than Downey.
“The year’s too tough.”
AHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!
The most hysterical prognostication I’ve ever read on this blog’s responses.
If not for the Academy’s general historic bias against comedy, Downey would have an excellent shot at Supporting for Tropic Thunder. And maybe it could still happen, given the good will toward him this year. Kevin Kline’s nod and eventual win for A Fish Called Wanda wasn’t predicted by many, was it? Of course there wasn’t as much prognostication 20 years ago either.
doug r, just to be a picky cow: wouldn’t rdjr be a possible ‘supporting actor’ nom for his supporting role in ‘thunder’? seems he would have a shot, being as supporting actor/actress comedy performances don’t have the same stigma attached as lead comedy roles when it comes to oscar noms (comedy and scifi performances always seem overlooked for the best actor/actress catagories, apart from weaver in ‘aliens’).
and though bits of ‘tropic thunder’ were funny (rdjr, nolte, black and mcbride were on their game), i thought stiller’s direction was the shakiest thing about the movie, it was all over the show. a director with a firmer grasp of the nuance of satire beyond ‘zoolander’ (and the difference between satire and a spoof for that matter – pick one and stick with it!) could have made that film one for the ages or some such shit. instead it’s a passing laugh. but that’s just me.
meant to say, rdjr as a possible ‘sup. actor’ nom for his ‘ensemble’ role in ‘thunder’
uh, yancy’s post wasn’t there when i wrote mine, my echo of his sentiments was a koinkidink
for the love of god, David, when are you finally going to acknowledge the prospects of Elsa Zylberstein (Best Supporting Actress) for ILYSL? The longer you leave her out, the longer your charts look irrelevant.
How is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the “one to beat”? Maybe I’m just the only one who doesn’t see that movie as being up the Academy’s alley.
How is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the “one to beat”? Maybe I’m just the only one who doesn’t see that movie as being up the Academy’s alley.
Looking at that chart makes me think Dark Knight is actually going to get a best picture nom. Last year the nominees were perfectly balanced between films whose audiences skewed female (Atonement, Juno), male (Blood, No Country) with Clayton being 50/50. Dark Knight (and possibly Defience) seems to be the only Red Meat contender on the list above, which I think will work to its advantage.
Oh my God, are we really going to spend all Oscar season talking about The Dark Knight?
I’m not saying that it should, just saying that it has a legitimate chance based on the competition.
1. Paramount was pushing the idea of Downey in Tropic Thunder before The Soloist was moved.
2. The odds of Elsa Zylberstein being nominated are about .5%… and only rise to 20% if a major critics group awards her.
3. Finke knows nothing but what Paramount told her to write about this.
I haven’t seen Zylberstein’s performance, but maybe she could get in on Kristin Thomas’ coattails (the Emily Watson/Rachel Griffiths Hilary and Jackie effect — not saying Griffiths didn’t deserve her nod).
Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder??? What ef are you guys smoking? Did you see the flipping movie??
for Iron Man, I’d say he has an outside chance ala Johny Depp for Pirates.
1. Hillary & Jackie was in English
2. Rachel Griffiths already existed on the American radar
Anything is possible. A fine performance. But a reach.
Have they figured out what’s going on with THE ROAD yet?
Bumped to qualifying or bumped from the year entirely?
HILLCOAT = TOTAL OWNAGE.
(Come to think of it, almost everyone and everything from Australia FUCKING OWNS… So what happened with Kamikaze?)
I spent too much time around you, Lex. I guess you just have the effect on people.
The new 007 may have cost Daniel Craig an Oscar nomination, pretentious title and all.
When you read that Craig as 007 “makes Rambo look like a pussycat” you can smell his chances going up in smoke. Plus the trailer has a Legion of Doom soundtrack with no trace of the James Bond Theme.
This whole new James Bond reeks of pretentiousness, actually, not just the title.