Femme Film Watch: How Much Blood Will Twilight Draw at the Box Office?
Fandango’s surveys don’t always interest me, but this one does:
According to a current Fandango survey of more than 5,000 moviegoers interested in buying Twilight tickets:
* 92% of respondents say they’ll see Twilight on opening weekend;
* 85% say they plan to see the film more than once;
* 56% are planning to see the movie with a group of friends;
* 97% have read the novel by Stephenie Meyer;
* 86% would be interested in visiting the locations where the movie was filmed;
* 95% of the respondents to the survey are female;
* 42% of respondents are 25 or older; 58% are younger than 25.
This survey follows up on a previous Fandango survey back in August on the most anticipated fall films:
— Fall 2008’s Most Anticipated Movie (ranking all films from Sept.-Dec.): Twilight (34%), followed by Quantum of Solace (19%).
— Sept. 2008’s Most Anticipated: Burn After Reading (18%), followed by The Women (14%).
— Oct. 2008: Body of Lies (13%), followed by High School Musical 3: Senior Year (11%).
— Nov. 2008: Twilight (31%), followed by the James Bond adventure, Quantum of Solace (20%).
— Dec. 2008: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (16%), followed by The Day the Earth Stood Still (15%).
Okay, it’s moderately interesting to me that Twilight has a higher anticipation rating than the Bond flick (at least, according to this survey), but what’s particularly interesting are those last two stats of the survey up on top: the heavy weighting of the female demographic, and the last numbers, which show 42% of the respondents in the 25 or older age group.
If these numbers are at all accurate (and you could certainly make an argument as to their scientific veracity), what we have here with Twilight is a very unique situation where a book-to-film adaptation that’s been largely written about as appealing to the kiddie-lit set, drawing a fairly large percentage margin from women over 25. I can’t think of another property targeted primarily at the female demographic that’s had this kind of age-based cross-over potential, but if you can think of one, please share with the group.
With films like the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus concert and High School Musical 3, you had moms going with their daughters to see them in theaters, but women over 25 going out of their way to see them on their own? Not so much. Whereas with Twilight, I expect to see older women without tween daughters in tow showing up to see the film. I’d love to hear from some of you Twilight Moms and women in the 18-25 age range what you think about how much Twilight will draw women to the theaters.
It’s going to be rather fascinating to see how all this femme-driven box office potential for Twilight actually translates into dollars and cents when the film opens. More interestingly, assuming Twilight does bring in huge numbers, will that have any greater long-term impact on the way male-dominated Hollywood views the potential of the female demographic at the box office? Stay tuned.
I HAVE SAID IT BEFORE AND I WILL SAY IT AGAIN:
55 MIL OPENING DAY, 125 MIL OPENING WEEKEND, 1.25 BILLION DOMESTIC GROSS.
BANK ON IT.
K-STEW = ABOUT TO BE THE BIGGEST FEMALE ICON SINCE MARILYN MONROE.
This will be a phenomenon not seen since TITANIC, maybe not EVER.
YOU WILL BOW.
I’m not an 18-25 year old, I’m actually one of the older readers/moviegoers dying to see this film. I think Twilight will draw not just women, but men too. We have 2 guys at my work who have read the books, and I know other guys who have seen the trailer and think it looks interesting. So, I believe that this movie will mostly draw women, due to the hot factor of “Edward” and the romantic side of the story, but the action will draw some guys.
I just want to see it be SUPER DUPER SUCCESSFUL!!
kvoynar: you may be overstating things a bit. although it would be a dream come true for twilight to do that well. i don’t think it will.
i am one of the 18-25 gals (20) and i just wanted to say it doesn’t really surprise me that this book/movie reaches older women. in fact the author herself said she wrote this book for an older crowd who liked to remember their high school days. although this book is quite tame compared to a lot of other stuff, it still surprises how many younger teens are reading this. like 12 and 13 year olds (some as young as 11). yes it’s tame, but it’s still violent and sexual at times. i wouldn’t recommend it for anyone under the age of 14.
i’m sure this move will do well (hopefully very well) in theaters. it’s fan base is very big and very dedicated! i’m anxious to see how many tickets have sold today, since fandango and movietickets.com were giving away a free song download with the purchase of every twilight ticket.
sorry! above i meant to say LexG instead of kvoynar. haha
I am 37 years old. I began reading the Twilight books over a year ago. My 50 year old sister turned me on to them. Now, my 13 year old daughter has read them and my 10 year old is interested in the movie because she sees Mommy and Sister so enthralled. I have called the projected demographic completely idiotic on other sights. Summit has a hit on their hands. Thanks!
Well, I was the idiot who thought High School Musical 3 would open to $85 million, using much of the same math that I would have applied to Twilight. So I guess we can’t automatically presume that the kids and/or younger woman demo is nearly as consistent as the young male demo. HSM3’s $42 million sounds like a reasonable number, with a potential for a lower opening leading into a solid hold over the next Thanksgiving weekend (I can’t imagine the middle-school girls running to the 170 minute Australia). Obviously a mega-smash by any reasonable standards, but let’s not start tossing out Harry Potter/Narnia comparisons quite yet.